Hollinger Insider: How great can Heat and Lakers be?
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halebtsi18
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:45 am    Post subject: Hollinger Insider: How great can Heat and Lakers be?

Does anyone with an insider account want to post this article? I'm really curious to see what hollinger thinks about both teams.

THanks

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:47 am    Post subject:

ban for posting hollinger
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:48 am    Post subject:

Quote:
How great can Heat and Lakers be?

By Chimpy McChimperson

OK, it's only five games.

But after five games, the last four of which were blowout victories, the Miami Heat seem poised to live up to our lofty expectations. After the opening-night stumble in Boston, Miami won four straight by a combined 91 points, and that's with a still-rough-around-the-edges offensive chemistry and Dwyane Wade recovering from a hamstring injury.

The Heat aren't the only team to sport an impressive start, of course. The Lakers are unbeaten after Tuesday night's rout of Memphis, as are the Hawks and Hornets. (Quick side rant: Did Lionel Hollins watch the Finals last season? Kobe Bryant scored 23 points on nine shots in the first half against Grizzlies defenders not named Tony Allen. Allen guarded Kobe for one possession -- yes, just one -- and forced a wild miss that barely grazed the rim.)

Nonetheless, nobody was saying before the season that the Hawks or the Hornets might win 72 games. That's because they won't. And although L.A.'s goose egg in the loss column keeps it ahead of Miami in the standings at the moment, we've already seen what this outfit can do. Win the championship? Perhaps. Win 72? Not bloody likely.

Miami, on the other hand, conjures up a wide range of possibilities, precisely because we haven't seen the limits on what the James-Wade-Bosh partnership can accomplish. We've been wondering all summer if this will be one of the greatest teams of all time or just another nice team. After five games, we're wondering a lot about the former and not so much about the latter. That in itself is a minor accomplishment.

To rank with the all-time greats, obviously, this year's Heat would need to win the championship. But that won't be nearly enough; it's just the minimum threshold. Here are some of the regular-season standards the Heat would need to threaten or exceed, and how they're faring relative to those mile-high standards:

1. Can they win 72?

The Heat are 4-1 at the moment, which puts them on pace to win 66 games for a full season using the avowedly unscientific "if they keep up this pace" method.

Here's a better stab at it: Using our Playoff Odds system that plays out every game for the rest of the season (it's launching soon, don't worry), the Heat project to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. It gives them only an 8.3 percent chance of winning 70 games, a 3.2 percent chance of winning 72, and just a 1.8 percent chance of exceeding 72.

But this may be too pessimistic. Early in the season, the Playoff Odds formula has a significant "regression to the mean" component. In other words, it assumes that a team can't win at the same red-hot pace all season (or lose all of its games, in the case of the Clippers). Ninety-nine percent of the time this makes complete sense -- we don't expect Atlanta or New Orleans to go 82-0 just because they've won a few games to start the year. Even teams that have lengthy early-season success -- for example, Boston's 27-2 start two years ago -- normally cool off considerably.

However, if the Heat happen to be every bit as good as they've shown in the first five games, regressing to the mean treats them too harshly. Based purely on point differential, they're on pace for about a 78-win season using a formula known as the Pythagorean method.

Still, to have a realistic shot at 72 or more wins, I think the Heat will have to stay well ahead of record pace, because they are likely to let off the gas pedal in the final few weeks of the season if they've already clinched the East's top seed. For that reason, I share the Playoff Odds' pessimism, even if my doubts aren't quite as extreme.

2. Can they match the Bulls' best-on-both-ends feat?

The 1995-96 Bulls not only won 72 games, they also were the only team in history to rank No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Coming into the season, one would have thought Miami's biggest challenge in trying to match this feat would be on the defensive end, where teams like Boston and Orlando would present a stiff challenge to claiming the top overall spot. But through five games, Miami's defense has gone gangbusters, with a league-best 87.9 defensive efficiency mark.

It's the offense that's been less sensational. Miami is only fifth on the offensive end at 109.1, although that has come against tough defensive opposition -- in addition to facing the aforementioned Celtics and Magic, the Heat have yet to face a bottom-10 defense. Based on current stats, they won't do so until Game 11 against Phoenix on Nov. 17.

Additionally, the offense would likely be more threatened by one item that's largely out of Miami's control -- injuries. The Heat offense was a train wreck in the opener with Wade returning from a hamstring injury, and seemed the same way in the preseason while Wade sat out. As long as the three stars stay healthy, the top spot in offensive efficiency is likely within reach, but if any of the trio misses extended time, it's likely that at least one other team will surpass them.

3. Can they be the best defensive team of all time?

Of all the items on this list, this one appears to be the most realistic for Miami to achieve. Since the league began tracking turnovers in 1973-74, the top defensive efficiency mark relative to the league belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. That squad posted a 92.3 defensive efficiency mark in a league in which the average was 100.8, making them 8.5 points better than the norm.

(Irony alert: That Spurs team did not win the championship, although four other Spurs teams did. In fact, of the top four all-time defenses, the only one to win it all was the 2007-08 Celtics. On the other hand, that still gives the defenses one more championship than the top four offenses.)

Thus far, the 2010-11 Heat are blowing that mark out of the water. Miami's league-leading 87.9 defensive efficiency is a whopping 14.8 points better than the current league average of 102.7. While we can expect this to even out for a number of reasons -- I doubt, for instance, that their opponents will continue to shoot just 44.0 percent on 2-pointers or brick quite so many free throws -- the Heat have considerable breathing room relative to the record and appear to have committed to dominating at the defensive end of the floor.

4. Can they set the mark for greatest victory margin?

The 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls both outscored the opposition by 12.3 points per game. Miami right now is at a league-best plus-16.6 but again, it's early. It's not uncommon for teams to be on a record pace for several weeks before cooling off, especially if they're given a favorable early schedule -- which, with 13 of the first 21 games at home, the Heat will have in their favor until the second week in December.

This season's Lakers, at plus-13.3 after four games, also merit mentioning here. They, too, have a very favorable early slate, with 12 of the first 21 at home and most of the opposition appearing to be lottery fodder. Like the Heat, however, they will get a dose of reality with a couple of long cross-country road trips beginning the second week in December.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:57 am    Post subject:

Hollinger is an idiot. It is statistically-proven.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:59 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Hollinger is an idiot. It is statistically-proven.


It's kind of impressive that he's still writing columns on a regular basis considering most of his energy is spent whacking off to the Miami Heat.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:59 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Quote:
How great can Heat and Lakers be?

By Chimpy McChimperson

OK, it's only five games.

But after five games, the last four of which were blowout victories, the Miami Heat seem poised to live up to our lofty expectations. After the opening-night stumble in Boston, Miami won four straight by a combined 91 points, and that's with a still-rough-around-the-edges offensive chemistry and Dwyane Wade recovering from a hamstring injury.

The Heat aren't the only team to sport an impressive start, of course. The Lakers are unbeaten after Tuesday night's rout of Memphis, as are the Hawks and Hornets. (Quick side rant: Did Lionel Hollins watch the Finals last season? Kobe Bryant scored 23 points on nine shots in the first half against Grizzlies defenders not named Tony Allen. Allen guarded Kobe for one possession -- yes, just one -- and forced a wild miss that barely grazed the rim.)

Nonetheless, nobody was saying before the season that the Hawks or the Hornets might win 72 games. That's because they won't. And although L.A.'s goose egg in the loss column keeps it ahead of Miami in the standings at the moment, we've already seen what this outfit can do. Win the championship? Perhaps. Win 72? Not bloody likely.

Miami, on the other hand, conjures up a wide range of possibilities, precisely because we haven't seen the limits on what the James-Wade-Bosh partnership can accomplish. We've been wondering all summer if this will be one of the greatest teams of all time or just another nice team. After five games, we're wondering a lot about the former and not so much about the latter. That in itself is a minor accomplishment.

To rank with the all-time greats, obviously, this year's Heat would need to win the championship. But that won't be nearly enough; it's just the minimum threshold. Here are some of the regular-season standards the Heat would need to threaten or exceed, and how they're faring relative to those mile-high standards:

1. Can they win 72?

The Heat are 4-1 at the moment, which puts them on pace to win 66 games for a full season using the avowedly unscientific "if they keep up this pace" method.

Here's a better stab at it: Using our Playoff Odds system that plays out every game for the rest of the season (it's launching soon, don't worry), the Heat project to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. It gives them only an 8.3 percent chance of winning 70 games, a 3.2 percent chance of winning 72, and just a 1.8 percent chance of exceeding 72.

But this may be too pessimistic. Early in the season, the Playoff Odds formula has a significant "regression to the mean" component. In other words, it assumes that a team can't win at the same red-hot pace all season (or lose all of its games, in the case of the Clippers). Ninety-nine percent of the time this makes complete sense -- we don't expect Atlanta or New Orleans to go 82-0 just because they've won a few games to start the year. Even teams that have lengthy early-season success -- for example, Boston's 27-2 start two years ago -- normally cool off considerably.

However, if the Heat happen to be every bit as good as they've shown in the first five games, regressing to the mean treats them too harshly. Based purely on point differential, they're on pace for about a 78-win season using a formula known as the Pythagorean method.

Still, to have a realistic shot at 72 or more wins, I think the Heat will have to stay well ahead of record pace, because they are likely to let off the gas pedal in the final few weeks of the season if they've already clinched the East's top seed. For that reason, I share the Playoff Odds' pessimism, even if my doubts aren't quite as extreme.

2. Can they match the Bulls' best-on-both-ends feat?

The 1995-96 Bulls not only won 72 games, they also were the only team in history to rank No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Coming into the season, one would have thought Miami's biggest challenge in trying to match this feat would be on the defensive end, where teams like Boston and Orlando would present a stiff challenge to claiming the top overall spot. But through five games, Miami's defense has gone gangbusters, with a league-best 87.9 defensive efficiency mark.

It's the offense that's been less sensational. Miami is only fifth on the offensive end at 109.1, although that has come against tough defensive opposition -- in addition to facing the aforementioned Celtics and Magic, the Heat have yet to face a bottom-10 defense. Based on current stats, they won't do so until Game 11 against Phoenix on Nov. 17.

Additionally, the offense would likely be more threatened by one item that's largely out of Miami's control -- injuries. The Heat offense was a train wreck in the opener with Wade returning from a hamstring injury, and seemed the same way in the preseason while Wade sat out. As long as the three stars stay healthy, the top spot in offensive efficiency is likely within reach, but if any of the trio misses extended time, it's likely that at least one other team will surpass them.

3. Can they be the best defensive team of all time?

Of all the items on this list, this one appears to be the most realistic for Miami to achieve. Since the league began tracking turnovers in 1973-74, the top defensive efficiency mark relative to the league belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. That squad posted a 92.3 defensive efficiency mark in a league in which the average was 100.8, making them 8.5 points better than the norm.

(Irony alert: That Spurs team did not win the championship, although four other Spurs teams did. In fact, of the top four all-time defenses, the only one to win it all was the 2007-08 Celtics. On the other hand, that still gives the defenses one more championship than the top four offenses.)

Thus far, the 2010-11 Heat are blowing that mark out of the water. Miami's league-leading 87.9 defensive efficiency is a whopping 14.8 points better than the current league average of 102.7. While we can expect this to even out for a number of reasons -- I doubt, for instance, that their opponents will continue to shoot just 44.0 percent on 2-pointers or brick quite so many free throws -- the Heat have considerable breathing room relative to the record and appear to have committed to dominating at the defensive end of the floor.

4. Can they set the mark for greatest victory margin?

The 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls both outscored the opposition by 12.3 points per game. Miami right now is at a league-best plus-16.6 but again, it's early. It's not uncommon for teams to be on a record pace for several weeks before cooling off, especially if they're given a favorable early schedule -- which, with 13 of the first 21 games at home, the Heat will have in their favor until the second week in December.

This season's Lakers, at plus-13.3 after four games, also merit mentioning here. They, too, have a very favorable early slate, with 12 of the first 21 at home and most of the opposition appearing to be lottery fodder. Like the Heat, however, they will get a dose of reality with a couple of long cross-country road trips beginning the second week in December.


This guy is a real lame. He's the kind of geek that you simply ignore.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:03 am    Post subject:

purple8goldvanessa wrote:
ban for posting hollinger


Hollinger was a nice experiment. But stats in basketball don't have the same kind of impact or relevance like they do in baseball. I see Hollinger trying to apply Michael Lewis's "Moneyball" to basketball analysis ala Billy Beane/ Sandy Alderson.

Basketball just isn't that kind of sport.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:04 am    Post subject:

So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:04 am    Post subject:

Wow so basically Chimpy's strategy here was to mention the Lakers in the title to get attention and then write an article completely about the Heat.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:06 am    Post subject:

kaoss128 wrote:
Wow so basically Chimpy's strategy here was to mention the Lakers in the title to get attention and then write an article completely about the Heat.


that's exactly what he did, otherwise no one will read it.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:07 am    Post subject:

The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.


It probably started out as an article about both, but he's in love. This may be something ESPN has to start monitoring. They'll ask Chimpy to write an article about the Pacers and he'll end up writing 3,000 words on the Heat.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:07 am    Post subject:

The fact that he's trying to make conclusions and back it with stats that he admits are shaky after 5 games is pretty stupid.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:08 am    Post subject:

He also completely ignores his statistics when it doesn't agree with his argument, as he did here with the Heat possibly winning 72 games, even though that is highly unlikely.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:10 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Quote:
How great can Heat and Lakers be?

By Chimpy McChimperson

OK, it's only five games.

But after five games, the last four of which were blowout victories, the Miami Heat seem poised to live up to our lofty expectations. After the opening-night stumble in Boston, Miami won four straight by a combined 91 points, and that's with a still-rough-around-the-edges offensive chemistry and Dwyane Wade recovering from a hamstring injury.

The Heat aren't the only team to sport an impressive start, of course. The Lakers are unbeaten after Tuesday night's rout of Memphis, as are the Hawks and Hornets. (Quick side rant: Did Lionel Hollins watch the Finals last season? Kobe Bryant scored 23 points on nine shots in the first half against Grizzlies defenders not named Tony Allen. Allen guarded Kobe for one possession -- yes, just one -- and forced a wild miss that barely grazed the rim.)

Nonetheless, nobody was saying before the season that the Hawks or the Hornets might win 72 games. That's because they won't. And although L.A.'s goose egg in the loss column keeps it ahead of Miami in the standings at the moment, we've already seen what this outfit can do. Win the championship? Perhaps. Win 72? Not bloody likely.

Miami, on the other hand, conjures up a wide range of possibilities, precisely because we haven't seen the limits on what the James-Wade-Bosh partnership can accomplish. We've been wondering all summer if this will be one of the greatest teams of all time or just another nice team. After five games, we're wondering a lot about the former and not so much about the latter. That in itself is a minor accomplishment.

To rank with the all-time greats, obviously, this year's Heat would need to win the championship. But that won't be nearly enough; it's just the minimum threshold. Here are some of the regular-season standards the Heat would need to threaten or exceed, and how they're faring relative to those mile-high standards:

1. Can they win 72?

The Heat are 4-1 at the moment, which puts them on pace to win 66 games for a full season using the avowedly unscientific "if they keep up this pace" method.

Here's a better stab at it: Using our Playoff Odds system that plays out every game for the rest of the season (it's launching soon, don't worry), the Heat project to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. It gives them only an 8.3 percent chance of winning 70 games, a 3.2 percent chance of winning 72, and just a 1.8 percent chance of exceeding 72.

But this may be too pessimistic. Early in the season, the Playoff Odds formula has a significant "regression to the mean" component. In other words, it assumes that a team can't win at the same red-hot pace all season (or lose all of its games, in the case of the Clippers). Ninety-nine percent of the time this makes complete sense -- we don't expect Atlanta or New Orleans to go 82-0 just because they've won a few games to start the year. Even teams that have lengthy early-season success -- for example, Boston's 27-2 start two years ago -- normally cool off considerably.

However, if the Heat happen to be every bit as good as they've shown in the first five games, regressing to the mean treats them too harshly. Based purely on point differential, they're on pace for about a 78-win season using a formula known as the Pythagorean method.

Still, to have a realistic shot at 72 or more wins, I think the Heat will have to stay well ahead of record pace, because they are likely to let off the gas pedal in the final few weeks of the season if they've already clinched the East's top seed. For that reason, I share the Playoff Odds' pessimism, even if my doubts aren't quite as extreme.

2. Can they match the Bulls' best-on-both-ends feat?

The 1995-96 Bulls not only won 72 games, they also were the only team in history to rank No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Coming into the season, one would have thought Miami's biggest challenge in trying to match this feat would be on the defensive end, where teams like Boston and Orlando would present a stiff challenge to claiming the top overall spot. But through five games, Miami's defense has gone gangbusters, with a league-best 87.9 defensive efficiency mark.

It's the offense that's been less sensational. Miami is only fifth on the offensive end at 109.1, although that has come against tough defensive opposition -- in addition to facing the aforementioned Celtics and Magic, the Heat have yet to face a bottom-10 defense. Based on current stats, they won't do so until Game 11 against Phoenix on Nov. 17.

Additionally, the offense would likely be more threatened by one item that's largely out of Miami's control -- injuries. The Heat offense was a train wreck in the opener with Wade returning from a hamstring injury, and seemed the same way in the preseason while Wade sat out. As long as the three stars stay healthy, the top spot in offensive efficiency is likely within reach, but if any of the trio misses extended time, it's likely that at least one other team will surpass them.

3. Can they be the best defensive team of all time?

Of all the items on this list, this one appears to be the most realistic for Miami to achieve. Since the league began tracking turnovers in 1973-74, the top defensive efficiency mark relative to the league belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. That squad posted a 92.3 defensive efficiency mark in a league in which the average was 100.8, making them 8.5 points better than the norm.

(Irony alert: That Spurs team did not win the championship, although four other Spurs teams did. In fact, of the top four all-time defenses, the only one to win it all was the 2007-08 Celtics. On the other hand, that still gives the defenses one more championship than the top four offenses.)

Thus far, the 2010-11 Heat are blowing that mark out of the water. Miami's league-leading 87.9 defensive efficiency is a whopping 14.8 points better than the current league average of 102.7. While we can expect this to even out for a number of reasons -- I doubt, for instance, that their opponents will continue to shoot just 44.0 percent on 2-pointers or brick quite so many free throws -- the Heat have considerable breathing room relative to the record and appear to have committed to dominating at the defensive end of the floor.

4. Can they set the mark for greatest victory margin?

The 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls both outscored the opposition by 12.3 points per game. Miami right now is at a league-best plus-16.6 but again, it's early. It's not uncommon for teams to be on a record pace for several weeks before cooling off, especially if they're given a favorable early schedule -- which, with 13 of the first 21 games at home, the Heat will have in their favor until the second week in December.

This season's Lakers, at plus-13.3 after four games, also merit mentioning here. They, too, have a very favorable early slate, with 12 of the first 21 at home and most of the opposition appearing to be lottery fodder. Like the Heat, however, they will get a dose of reality with a couple of long cross-country road trips beginning the second week in December.


Cool Story, Chimp
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:10 am    Post subject:

So, in sum, his take seems to be: "Both the Lakers and the Heat will likely win in the mid-60s or so. The Lakers are more of a known quantity, and their roster tweaks aren't enough to jump from 57 wins last year to 72 this year. The Heat are unlikely to get 72 eithet, but we don't have a history to judge them against."

I can't argue with that, though it's staggering to me that at the start of the season people are talking about what a great defensive team the Heat are becoming.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:11 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.


It probably started out as an article about both, but he's in love. This may be something ESPN has to start monitoring. They'll ask Chimpy to write an article about the Pacers and he'll end up writing 3,000 words on the Heat.


I also love in the short amount of words he wrote about the Lakers, he managed a nice little dig about Kobe. His slurpfest with LeBron and the Heat has become gross.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:11 am    Post subject:

Thanks for the quoted read.

He will just write Lakers & Heat BS to garner hits. Job security.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:16 am    Post subject:

purple8goldvanessa wrote:
ban for posting hollinger

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:20 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.


It probably started out as an article about both, but he's in love. This may be something ESPN has to start monitoring. They'll ask Chimpy to write an article about the Pacers and he'll end up writing 3,000 words on the Heat.
Damn you! I was going to point that out but you were just too damned logically astute to allow that to happen huh? May your body provide nourishment for thousands of fleas.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:49 am    Post subject:

The End Game wrote:
ocho wrote:
The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.


It probably started out as an article about both, but he's in love. This may be something ESPN has to start monitoring. They'll ask Chimpy to write an article about the Pacers and he'll end up writing 3,000 words on the Heat.


I also love in the short amount of words he wrote about the Lakers, he managed a nice little dig about Kobe. His slurpfest with LeBron and the Heat has become gross.


How was that a dig at Kobe?

He was criticizing Hollins for not using Allen on Kobe more.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:51 am    Post subject:

Hollinger is a turd, please dont post his crap here anymore!
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:51 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.


It probably started out as an article about both, but he's in love. This may be something ESPN has to start monitoring. They'll ask Chimpy to write an article about the Pacers and he'll end up writing 3,000 words on the Heat.



Either that, or it started out as a typical LBJ jock-sniffer article and his editors told him to add the Lakers to the title since they're, uhhhmmmm, the two time defending champs and off to an impressive start themselves.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:54 am    Post subject:

The End Game wrote:
So pretty much this was a Heat article, pretty much only mentioning the Lakers in the title to garner clicks.



Yep. That's always been his game plan: Incite the Laker fans (because they are the most numerous) and have ESPN management happily monitor the proverbial page hit counter.

He's little more than a professional troll.
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OdomGrab
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:55 am    Post subject:

how long before this is never mentioned here?
i mean we are sitting on 2 rings
like to taking 2 dumps on one face
this guy redefines "insider"
also makes the word useless.
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scottpot29
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:55 am    Post subject:



What a maroon...
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