Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

 
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Dr. Laker
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:42 am    Post subject: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

I seem to recall that when word of Kobe's no-trade clause leaked out that there were indications that it was limited to the 1st two years of the deal. Does anyone have any information on that?

If it's true -- that opens up a number of possibilities for the Buss which should FRIGHTEN Lakers fans.

#1 is the possibility that the 2007 plan is to SELL the team. Don't scoff - Buss is in his 70's and has to consider inheritance tax laws for when he dies. Many team owners who are not billionaires have had to sell their teams because leaving them to family members would put tax burdens in the upper 8 figures on them.

Buss could very well be profit-taking now (he makes, with salary, between 30 and 40 mil in an average year from the team), selling us optimism and all the while planning to bail in another year or so.

The team would still be worth a minimum of 300 million to the AEG - plus would be able to dump its biggest salary burden in Kobe.

Thoughts?
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:06 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

Dr. Laker wrote:
I seem to recall that when word of Kobe's no-trade clause leaked out that there were indications that it was limited to the 1st two years of the deal. Does anyone have any information on that?

That's what I heard, too, but I'm not positive.

Quote:
If it's true -- that opens up a number of possibilities for the Buss which should FRIGHTEN Lakers fans.

#1 is the possibility that the 2007 plan is to SELL the team. Don't scoff - Buss is in his 70's and has to consider inheritance tax laws for when he dies. Many team owners who are not billionaires have had to sell their teams because leaving them to family members would put tax burdens in the upper 8 figures on them.

Buss had said many times that he plans for his children to inherit the Lakers. This is the primary motivation in Jim Buss taking an increasingly larger role. I imagine the family has done enough planning to make it feasible.

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Buss could very well be profit-taking now (he makes, with salary, between 30 and 40 mil in an average year from the team), selling us optimism and all the while planning to bail in another year or so.

The team would still be worth a minimum of 300 million to the AEG - plus would be able to dump its biggest salary burden in Kobe.

Forbes put them at $529 million last December.

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bounty
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:10 am    Post subject:

Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:26 am    Post subject:

bounty wrote:
Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.


Don't bet on that...after a while losing becomes old hat and if management continues to make poor decisions nothing is for certain.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:32 am    Post subject:

captain jack wrote:
bounty wrote:
Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.


Don't bet on that...after a while losing becomes old hat and if management continues to make poor decisions nothing is for certain.

He knew trading shaq was going to hinder winning. He has a father son relationship with Buss. Best NBA org. Has historical relevance with the Lakers. Lives here. $$$$$$$$$$$ the list goes on. He is one teamate away from scarying teams. 2 from winning rings
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:33 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

Dr. Laker wrote:
I seem to recall that when word of Kobe's no-trade clause leaked out that there were indications that it was limited to the 1st two years of the deal. Does anyone have any information on that?

If it's true -- that opens up a number of possibilities for the Buss which should FRIGHTEN Lakers fans.

#1 is the possibility that the 2007 plan is to SELL the team. Don't scoff - Buss is in his 70's and has to consider inheritance tax laws for when he dies. Many team owners who are not billionaires have had to sell their teams because leaving them to family members would put tax burdens in the upper 8 figures on them.

Buss could very well be profit-taking now (he makes, with salary, between 30 and 40 mil in an average year from the team), selling us optimism and all the while planning to bail in another year or so.

The team would still be worth a minimum of 300 million to the AEG - plus would be able to dump its biggest salary burden in Kobe.

Thoughts?


The flaw in your logic is the serious depreciation in total team value should they end up with no Kobe and a losing team. If the plan is to sell, he would actually be better off building a contender again and driving the value up ... not down. The Lakers still sell out mainly because of Kobe and a team that has SOME hope for the future. Take away Kobe ... throw in a losing team ... and the sellouts stop. If that happens not only does the selling value drop but so does Buss's family income.

Economics 101 says you're wrong.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:45 am    Post subject:

:roll: kobe will go nowhere.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:52 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

Just_Looking wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
I seem to recall that when word of Kobe's no-trade clause leaked out that there were indications that it was limited to the 1st two years of the deal. Does anyone have any information on that?

If it's true -- that opens up a number of possibilities for the Buss which should FRIGHTEN Lakers fans.

#1 is the possibility that the 2007 plan is to SELL the team. Don't scoff - Buss is in his 70's and has to consider inheritance tax laws for when he dies. Many team owners who are not billionaires have had to sell their teams because leaving them to family members would put tax burdens in the upper 8 figures on them.

Buss could very well be profit-taking now (he makes, with salary, between 30 and 40 mil in an average year from the team), selling us optimism and all the while planning to bail in another year or so.

The team would still be worth a minimum of 300 million to the AEG - plus would be able to dump its biggest salary burden in Kobe.

Thoughts?


The flaw in your logic is the serious depreciation in total team value should they end up with no Kobe and a losing team. If the plan is to sell, he would actually be better off building a contender again and driving the value up ... not down. The Lakers still sell out mainly because of Kobe and a team that has SOME hope for the future. Take away Kobe ... throw in a losing team ... and the sellouts stop. If that happens not only does the selling value drop but so does Buss's family income.

Economics 101 says you're wrong.


I would like to agree with you but the Clippers prove you wrong. Sterling has routinely had one of the best profit margins in the league even without going to the playoffs. Having a strong fan base and spending wisely (not giving any max contracts) can still garner a profit while your team loses and has absolutely no respect through out the sports world.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:56 am    Post subject:

bounty wrote:
Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.


when is his opt out? 2008 or 2009?

i could see him leaving, infact...my best bet is that he would if they dont have a contender built around him by then (whether they ditch the "plan" or stick to it and it fails).
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:00 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

Just_Looking wrote:

The flaw in your logic is the serious depreciation in total team value should they end up with no Kobe and a losing team. If the plan is to sell, he would actually be better off building a contender again and driving the value up ... not down. The Lakers still sell out mainly because of Kobe and a team that has SOME hope for the future. Take away Kobe ... throw in a losing team ... and the sellouts stop. If that happens not only does the selling value drop but so does Buss's family income.

Economics 101 says you're wrong.


Not quite. The two factors in valuation are revenue and costs. Building a long term contender certainly drives up the value of the team - if Buss spends an extra 120MM over the next three years (takes on another max contract, plus pays luxury tax), he no doubt keeps the team at near may value (let's use Forbes' 529MM figure).

HOWEVER, you have to look at the opportunity costs. Say he runs the team on the cheap and then sells it for a paltry $329 MM in Summer 2007. Has he "lost" $200MM? NO. He still has the 120MM that he did not invest in making the team better, plus two years return on what he uses the 120MM for (his other businesses, etc.). At a 10% rate of return, the 120MM is 145MM. Still a 55MM loss, you say?. NO - because on that 330MM that he gets a year early, he's going to get a 10% return on it, as well, so at the end of the day, he may have lost 22MM. He's gained, however, a year or two of certainty (because there's no absolute guarantee that if he puts 120MM into the team that it will get better - look at the Knicks).

Well, he'll lose revenue with a lousy team, you say - again, not true. Look at the Bulls. Their most profitable seasons were the three seasons AFTER the breakup - why? Because (like the Lakers), the bulk of their revenue came from long-term commitments (multi-year TV contracts and luxury suite sales).

The losses from casual ticket sales declines may not impact the team as much as expected, ESPECIALLY if you sell them on a mythical "2007" plan (hmm, Lakers attendance in 03-04 Finals year was 18,967 and has "fallen" to 18,813 this year).

They will certainly lose a ton of playoff revenue (20-30MM), but you only get that kind of revenue from going on a deep run and, barring a miracle, it would take 2-3 seasons to assemble that kind of team.

OK, you say, well if Jerry Buss runs the team into the ground, why would anyone buy it? TWO reasons:

1) Right of 1st refusal belongs to the Staples Center ownership group, which counts on the Lakers to fill 45 dates annually. They take a huge hit if someone else buys the team and moves it somewhere.

2) DONALD STERLING. The Donald proved that by containing costs and operating expenses, you can make a consistent 25-30MM profit without investing heavily into the team. If the new owners dealt Kobe (no-trade clause expired), Kwame (a last year in 2007) and found someone to pawn Odom off on, they could sell the "We're building around Andrew" line and have a team payroll in the upper 20MM range. Even if attendance drops to the 14,000 range (it'd be almost impossible to go lower in a market this size), you make 30MM a year in profits.

Do you spend 300MM to make 30MM per year? Of course you do, especially when you'll be able to sell the 300MM assett for more than that down the line.

When Buss bought out Jack Kent Cooke for 62MM, the biggest part of the purchase price was for real estate - the Forum and some downtown offices. The Lakers actually cost him about 17MM and the Kings about 7MM. Buss cleaned up on breaking off the real estate and the Kings (and Prime Ticket, too boot). If he gets a paltry 300MM for the Lakers (after earning at least 400MM in income while owning them), he's waaaayyy ahead.

That's Econ 617 (Graduate Seminar).

Of course, this is idle speculation on my part - he may actually really want Jimmy to take over. But if he sells to AEG and sets up a family trust for his 4 kids, they'd control an asset base of at least $600,000,000.00, with at least $300,000,000.00 in CASH. Sports ownership has gotten away from Mom & Pop family run shops (see: O'Malley clan, Modell family, etc.) - except for multibillionaires. I hope I'm wrong, but it's not inconceivable.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:03 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

Dr. Laker wrote:
But if he sells to AEG and sets up a family trust for his 4 kids, they'd control an asset base of at least $600,000,000.00, with at least $300,000,000.00 in CASH.


If he sells to AEG, we will all be screwed. Just ask an LA Kings fan.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:06 am    Post subject: Re: Does Kobe's No-Trade clause expire soon?

venturalakersfan wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
But if he sells to AEG and sets up a family trust for his 4 kids, they'd control an asset base of at least $600,000,000.00, with at least $300,000,000.00 in CASH.


If he sells to AEG, we will all be screwed. Just ask an LA Kings fan.


Well, they have the 1st option to buy
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:25 am    Post subject:

That scares me more than anything Mitch could ever do.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:38 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
That scares me more than anything Mitch could ever do.


Which is the other thing ... WHY would Buss give AEG an option to buy in the first place if he was not (at some point) planning on selling the team? They're already minority partners in the Lakers and would have a better handle on his "survivorship" plans.

Perhaps AEG insisted on it as an insurance policy "just in case" he decided to sell, but usually you have to pay $$$ for that kind of option and I don't see AEG wasting their money on a longshot. Then again, I'm not a billionaire and it may just be routine for them.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:41 am    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That scares me more than anything Mitch could ever do.


Which is the other thing ... WHY would Buss give AEG an option to buy in the first place if he was not (at some point) planning on selling the team? They're already minority partners in the Lakers and would have a better handle on his "survivorship" plans.

Perhaps AEG insisted on it as an insurance policy "just in case" he decided to sell, but usually you have to pay $$$ for that kind of option and I don't see AEG wasting their money on a longshot. Then again, I'm not a billionaire and it may just be routine for them.


If I remember correctly, it was related to building of Staples Center. I'm sure it was just an investor move for Buss, I would be surprised if he ever sold the team.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:54 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That scares me more than anything Mitch could ever do.


Which is the other thing ... WHY would Buss give AEG an option to buy in the first place if he was not (at some point) planning on selling the team? They're already minority partners in the Lakers and would have a better handle on his "survivorship" plans.

Perhaps AEG insisted on it as an insurance policy "just in case" he decided to sell, but usually you have to pay $$$ for that kind of option and I don't see AEG wasting their money on a longshot. Then again, I'm not a billionaire and it may just be routine for them.


If I remember correctly, it was related to building of Staples Center. I'm sure it was just an investor move for Buss, I would be surprised if he ever sold the team.


May be this is why Magic has been pushing to have that Las Vegas franchise get an opportunity and said he would be willing to be a major owner in it.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 1:12 pm    Post subject:

bounty wrote:
captain jack wrote:
bounty wrote:
Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.


Don't bet on that...after a while losing becomes old hat and if management continues to make poor decisions nothing is for certain.

He knew trading shaq was going to hinder winning. He has a father son relationship with Buss. Best NBA org. Has historical relevance with the Lakers. Lives here. $$$$$$$$$$$ the list goes on. He is one teamate away from scarying teams. 2 from winning rings


I am not certain if Kobe thought it was going to be this difficult. It's easy to have a father son relationship if you are making the owner more money. Come on....if it weren't for Kobe nobody would be attending any Laker games. In regards to the one teammate --- you have to be real specific, because our management can't seem to figure it out. Also, Kobe is going to get paid no matter where he goes -- I would love for Kobe to remain a Laker but you never know.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:18 pm    Post subject:

Buss traded off Shaq for Kobe, he's going nowhere. There's too much loyalty there. And no way in hell Buss is selling the team, it's staying in the family. He's dying a Laker.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:22 pm    Post subject:

captain jack wrote:
bounty wrote:
captain jack wrote:
bounty wrote:
Kobe will die a lifelong Laker. he aint leaving, he aint getting traded.


Don't bet on that...after a while losing becomes old hat and if management continues to make poor decisions nothing is for certain.

He knew trading shaq was going to hinder winning. He has a father son relationship with Buss. Best NBA org. Has historical relevance with the Lakers. Lives here. $$$$$$$$$$$ the list goes on. He is one teamate away from scarying teams. 2 from winning rings


I am not certain if Kobe thought it was going to be this difficult. It's easy to have a father son relationship if you are making the owner more money. Come on....if it weren't for Kobe nobody would be attending any Laker games. In regards to the one teammate --- you have to be real specific, because our management can't seem to figure it out. Also, Kobe is going to get paid no matter where he goes -- I would love for Kobe to remain a Laker but you never know.


Yes.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:28 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
That scares me more than anything Mitch could ever do.


Which is the other thing ... WHY would Buss give AEG an option to buy in the first place if he was not (at some point) planning on selling the team? They're already minority partners in the Lakers and would have a better handle on his "survivorship" plans.

Perhaps AEG insisted on it as an insurance policy "just in case" he decided to sell, but usually you have to pay $$$ for that kind of option and I don't see AEG wasting their money on a longshot. Then again, I'm not a billionaire and it may just be routine for them.



Answer: A sweetener, which was probably what AEG was looking for, and gave Buss a few extra pesos. The sweetener doesn't mean AEG will take over, it just means that they'll share the "ownership control" premium with the Buss family should someone wish to buy out Buss.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 2:52 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:

Answer: A sweetener, which was probably what AEG was looking for, and gave Buss a few extra pesos. The sweetener doesn't mean AEG will take over, it just means that they'll share the "ownership control" premium with the Buss family should someone wish to buy out Buss.


That's why I'm not a billionaire - I'm not farsighted like that .
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:37 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:

Answer: A sweetener, which was probably what AEG was looking for, and gave Buss a few extra pesos. The sweetener doesn't mean AEG will take over, it just means that they'll share the "ownership control" premium with the Buss family should someone wish to buy out Buss.


That's why I'm not a billionaire - I'm not farsighted like that .


I'm in the same boat as Dr. Laker. AP, are you saying that AEG could be paid off to pass on their option?
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 4:51 pm    Post subject:

IF THE LAKERS GIVE UP KOBE THEY ARE ANOTHER EXPANSION TEAM; NOW THEY ARE AN EXPANSION TEAM WITH A STAR....
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:15 pm    Post subject:

One would have to murder Dr. Buss to get an O.K. on a Kobe trade.
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