Should we be hoping for losses for the lotto now?
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lakers2626
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:05 am    Post subject:

CrimsonLaker wrote:
The fact is, we're trying to lose now. We're garbage. I hope we make the playoffs, only because you never know how far you can get with Kobe on your team....but if not, DRAFT JJ REDICK!


He would be a good fit just because he can shoot the ball. It could be possible because he's projected around the 9 or 10 pick.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:49 am    Post subject:

P.K. wrote:
If I remember right, that pick is only top 10 protected. We're currently #16 worst overall, so to get into the bottom 10 we'd have to drop 6 spots. That would take some serious losing.



As of today, the Lakers are only 3 1/2 games above the 10th draft position, currently inhabited by Minne. It feels close, as this team has stopped playing defense.
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:34 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
P.K. wrote:
If I remember right, that pick is only top 10 protected. We're currently #16 worst overall, so to get into the bottom 10 we'd have to drop 6 spots. That would take some serious losing.



As of today, the Lakers are only 3 1/2 games above the 10th draft position, currently inhabited by Minne. It feels close, as this team has stopped playing defense.

yeah, but to make it down to that 10th spot does require a lot of losing once you grasp the math. It's not as simple as losing 3 more games then Minny.

LA is currently 29-29 (.500) with 24 games left
Minny is currently 25-32 (.439) with 25 left

If Minny continues at .439 that'll have them finish the season at 36-46

So, for LA to be worse then that, they'd have to finish with only 35 wins - or conversly, they can only win 6 out of their next 24 games.

that's a .250 winning % the rest of the way. That is a lot of losing, and if they did it, would probably attract a lot of League attention due to LA being a .500 or slightly better team all season. To suddenly start winning less then 25% of their games would be noticed.

so, it's not just a matter of losing 3.5 more games then Minny - it's a matter of losing 18 out of the final 24 games this season. And that is assuming that Minny or GS finish at the same rate & not start giving up more losses as the league leaders turn up their games in the final 1/3 of the season
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:50 pm    Post subject:

P.K. wrote:
angrypuppy wrote:
P.K. wrote:
If I remember right, that pick is only top 10 protected. We're currently #16 worst overall, so to get into the bottom 10 we'd have to drop 6 spots. That would take some serious losing.



As of today, the Lakers are only 3 1/2 games above the 10th draft position, currently inhabited by Minne. It feels close, as this team has stopped playing defense.

yeah, but to make it down to that 10th spot does require a lot of losing once you grasp the math. It's not as simple as losing 3 more games then Minny.

LA is currently 29-29 (.500) with 24 games left
Minny is currently 25-32 (.439) with 25 left

If Minny continues at .439 that'll have them finish the season at 36-46

So, for LA to be worse then that, they'd have to finish with only 35 wins - or conversly, they can only win 6 out of their next 24 games.

that's a .250 winning % the rest of the way. That is a lot of losing, and if they did it, would probably attract a lot of League attention due to LA being a .500 or slightly better team all season. To suddenly start winning less then 25% of their games would be noticed.

so, it's not just a matter of losing 3.5 more games then Minny - it's a matter of losing 18 out of the final 24 games this season. And that is assuming that Minny or GS finish at the same rate & not start giving up more losses as the league leaders turn up their games in the final 1/3 of the season



Your calculations aren't taking into account that the team has been playing poorly since February, which coincides with the latest stretch of no D games. Since that time the Lakers have posted a 5-9 record, which if you use that as the slope, gives us a .357 winning percentage projection. Minne is hardly setting the world on fire, but if this team has an injury to Chris Mihm (let alone Kobe or Lamar) we could end up in the 10th pick once again.

Let's hope history doesn't repeat itself, because that's exactly what happened last season.
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drew4lakers
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:58 pm    Post subject:

With all due respect, hoping for the Lakers to lose is something i will never do.

We don't need the lottery to bail us out, just smarter moves and better talent evaluation.
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STiG909
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:00 pm    Post subject:

these types of threads make me sick
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sodapoppenski
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:07 pm    Post subject:

bounty wrote:
sodapoppenski wrote:
OdomX2 wrote:
sodapoppenski wrote:
.500 going into the break.

3-3 since then.

.500 now.

What's different?

.500 still today gets us into the 8th seed.


Some people need to take a serious chill pill.



Do you really think Sacramento is going to sit back and tank with Artest? .500 does not get us the 8 seed.


I'd agree that it might take more than .500 to get the 8th.

But NOT by some drastic margin.

We can name 10 games where a basket would have won or lost us the
game.

Two of them have been since the break, where we're 3-3.

So we could be 5-1 without a whole lot of sway.

My point is, we have't been playing great since the break but people need
to stop acting like we're the worst team in the league.

We were a .500 team roughly all season, and that's still the case.


If we stay around that number then we have at least a SHOT at the 8th
seed, Sacramento or not, if we pull out just a couple extra games.

Tank the season?

Please tell me you're not supporting this guy's lunacy.

losses suck, but when you have to scoreboard watch or include woulda shoulda couldas when reffering to the team, things arent good


Every team has "woulda shoulda couldas" in both directions.

Us too.

We've had games we barely won.

We've had games we've barely lost.

My point is just that we're not on some huge slump.

We're .500 since the break, .500 going into the break.

Our semi-slump came with Mihm and LO out for most of it - so that is at
least somewhat understandable.

I'm just saying hang in there and let Kobe be who he is. Let him try to
lead this team to the playoffs.

It's what he wants in his heart of hearts (and thensome), and to tell this
team to tank would be completely stupid.

Word on that kind of thing might not get out to the general public, but you
know it gets out to the players. And is that the message we want to
project to potential trade/FA acquisitions? That we're punks? Quitters?

NO FUGGING THANK YOU.
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Exick
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:17 pm    Post subject:

Even if the NBA scrapped the lottery and David Stern personally and publicly guaranteed the Lakers the #1 pick for the next 5 years if the Lakers intentionally tanked just one game, I still wouldn't root for a loss. That's ridiculous.
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:22 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:

Your calculations aren't taking into account that the team has been playing poorly since February, which coincides with the latest stretch of no D games. Since that time the Lakers have posted a 5-9 record, which if you use that as the slope, gives us a .357 winning percentage projection. Minne is hardly setting the world on fire, but if this team has an injury to Chris Mihm (let alone Kobe or Lamar) we could end up in the 10th pick once again.

Let's hope history doesn't repeat itself, because that's exactly what happened last season.

Both GS & Minny have gone 3-7 in their last 10, for a .300 rate which is even less they the .357 you've pointed out. I'd said in the earlier post that GS & Minny may fall off further because the top teams tend to up the intensity as the post-season gets closer - which typically means a higher loss rate for the poorer teams. We're losing more but so are they, so it's still about the same ratio to try to catch them.

And to the other poster: I wasn't suggesting we try to lose. I was just pointing out that it'd be almost impossible to lose enough to secure the #10 spot & keep the pick as the original post suggested.
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Ziggy
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:22 pm    Post subject:

24 games left. 6 of them are against Phoenix, SA and Detroit. The Lakers are 0-14 against those teams since the Snaq trade.

Let's say they somehow end up going 2-4 against those teams in those 6 games. Then they will have to go 10-8 in the remaining 18 games to finish the season with a .500 record.

I think the 8th seed team will most likely finish 2 or 3 games above .500. So realistically they'd have to go 12-6 to lock up that 8th seed with a 42-40 record, and that's assuming they can win 2 against SA, Detroit or Phoenix.

The thing is, even some of those 18 games are against difficult teams. They play the Hornets 3 more times, the Cavs, Nets, the Kings 2 more times, Denver and the Clippers.

So they definitely have their work cut out for them just to finish above .500. Sadly, if they miss the playoffs this season, they will not get a top 10 lottery pick. They will have nothing to show for this season if they miss the playoffs. They just need to win every game they can from now on. It's too early to tank it.
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sodapoppenski
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:25 pm    Post subject:

Ziggy wrote:
24 games left. 6 of them are against Phoenix, SA and Detroit. The Lakers are 0-14 against those teams since the Snaq trade.

Let's say they somehow end up going 2-4 against those teams in those 6 games. Then they will have to go 10-8 in the remaining 18 games to finish the season with a .500 record.

I think the 8th seed team will most likely finish 2 or 3 games above .500. So realistically they'd have to go 12-6 to lock up that 8th seed with a 42-40 record, and that's assuming they can win 2 against SA, Detroit or Phoenix.

The thing is, even some of those 18 games are against difficult teams. They play the Hornets 3 more times, the Cavs, Nets, the Kings 2 more times, Denver and the Clippers.

So they definitely have their work cut out for them just to finish above .500. Sadly, if they miss the playoffs this season, they will not get a top 10 lottery pick. They will have nothing to show for this season if they miss the playoffs. They just need to win every game they can from now on. It's too early to tank it.


Agreed.

Not an "easy" road - but it could be worse.

Either way, like you said, way early to "tank it" even for those of you
missing enough marbles to think tanking it to end up a 10th pick or higher
in a watered-down draft in a LOTTO system is a GOOD idea
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angel
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:34 pm    Post subject:

It's going to be a weak draft. The Lakers won't likely get a good pick. Also, losers are not attractive to free agents. Looking for the lottery is a loser's mentality.
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Lakerville
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:40 pm    Post subject: umm

Absolutly not! The NBA just isn't right without Kobe or the Lakers in the Playoff's. This team can still get as high as the 6th seed with Memphis and NO/OK slipping. Plus our pick would go to PHX unless we get as low 10, so no, I do not want to miss the playoffs even if that means we get the 8th seed and have to play Dallas.

Who knows, we might get the 6th seed and beat the Nuggets or whoever wins the Northwest. And then we would most likely play the Suns and Steve Nash might get injured and then we would make the WCF.

Don't give up hope guys!
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LucasWhite
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:42 pm    Post subject:

angel is right. There isn't much you can do with a high pick this year except trade it. Morrison, Gay, Rondo, and Redick are the 4 worth getting this year in that order. Of course, they won't be exact first 4 picks, but they are the 4 that are going to succeed the most on the next level. There are going to be a lot of Kareem Rush type players this year because it's the year in between the age discrimination rule passing and the first age discrimination victims being able to enter after their freshmen years.
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