An Interesting Statistic

 
Post new topic    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> LA Lakers Lounge Reply to topic
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:01 pm    Post subject: An Interesting Statistic

I have noticed lately how much the outcomes of third quarters of games are closely related to the outcomes of the final scores. It seems like if we win the third quarters, more likely we would win the game. So, I have done a little research.

For the season, our record is 10-23 when we lost the third quarters (Out of the 10 wins after losing the third quarters, 3 were OT's, 1 by 1pt and 1 by 3pt).

We are 19-6 when we don't lose the third quarters (3 ties which resulted in W's).

We lose 70% of the games when we lost the third quarters, and win 73% when the third quarters are won (or win 76% when we don't lose the third quarters ==>3 ties).

This is an amazingly strong correlation between the results of the third quarters to the results of the games.

So, the question is can something be done about the 3rd quarters? Such as should the coaching staff do a better job to prepare the players after halftime? Are we tired after halftime?????
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
AirKobe8
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 8586

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:08 pm    Post subject:

I dont know man, probably a coincidence, maybe entering the 4th winning motivates 'em?
_________________
www.lakersbrasil.com
Fan site made by me and others, dedicated to posting Laker news and articles in portuguese.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:23 pm    Post subject:

AirKobe8 wrote:
I dont know man, probably a coincidence, maybe entering the 4th winning motivates 'em?


In this research, I don't mean AFTER the 3rd quarters entering the 4th. I am talking about THE 3rd quarters of the games.

It is possible that it is a coincidence. However, the sample size is pretty large (58 games) and the correlation is very strong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
mike_kb
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 384

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:25 pm    Post subject:

I would bet the farm winning 3rd translates into higher percentage of winning, league-wide.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:29 pm    Post subject:

mike_kb wrote:
I would bet the farm winning 3rd translates into higher percentage of winning, league-wide.


Maybe, maybe not. But would they yield such high percentage like ours? If I have time, I will try to see if this is true, league-wide.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
wolfpaclaker
Retired Number
Retired Number


Joined: 29 May 2002
Posts: 58318

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:42 pm    Post subject:

Yep this is a good stat.

The Lakers have lost many games this season in the third. It seems they lose focus at halftime and forget all the things Phil has told them.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website Reply with quote
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:40 pm    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
Yep this is a good stat.

The Lakers have lost many games this season in the third. It seems they lose focus at halftime and forget all the things Phil has told them.


I went a little further, and take a look at this:

We have 25 4th quarter losses and our record is 10-15 ==>60% losing record.

We have 28 4th quarters wins (plus 5 ties), and our record is 19-14 ==> 58% winning.

The difference is about 10 percent points or more between the 3rd quarters and the 4th quarters, which is quite a lot. AND given that the 4th quarters are supposed to be the most important quarters, isn't it amazing that the 3rd quarters have a much more effect on us than the 4th


Last edited by OmegaCues on Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lakers0505
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 10701

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:54 pm    Post subject:

Actually thats a big trend for most teams i would assume, teams like the mavericks and spurts and other elite i would venture too say they have mind numbing numbers after winning the 3rd.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Intensity
Sixth Man
Sixth Man


Joined: 01 Mar 2006
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:55 pm    Post subject:

In an interesting study. I found that we are EXACTLY .500 when we are leading after the 4th Quarter. <astonishing>
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
dgrynch
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 1095
Location: Somewhere In Uptown

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:59 pm    Post subject:

Interesting observations. I wonder how many 1st quarters that we have won and loss and determine what the final outcome is based on that information?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:17 pm    Post subject:

lakers0505 wrote:
Actually thats a big trend for most teams i would assume, teams like the mavericks and spurts and other elite i would venture too say they have mind numbing numbers after winning the 3rd.


Teams like Dallas, Detroit, New York, Charlott don't really count because they are at the opposite end of the spectrum (too good of a record or too bad of a record). I would be curius about teams with similar records like ours such as 76ers, Hornets, Washington, etc.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
OmegaCues
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 11 Oct 2005
Posts: 574

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:18 pm    Post subject:

Intensity wrote:
In an interesting study. I found that we are EXACTLY .500 when we are leading after the 4th Quarter. <astonishing>


Your point is????
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Exick
Site Staff
Site Staff


Joined: 17 Mar 2005
Posts: 15880

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:08 pm    Post subject:

Intensity wrote:
In an interesting study. I found that we are EXACTLY .500 when we are leading after the 4th Quarter. <astonishing>

Umm, you might want to check your numbers there buddy. If the Lakers are .500 when leading after the 4th quarter, then there are new definitions of winning and losing with which I am not familiar.
_________________
Game recognize game, Granddad. - Riley Freeman, The Boondocks
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
LucasWhite
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 732

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:54 pm    Post subject:

OmegaCues wrote:
mike_kb wrote:
I would bet the farm winning 3rd translates into higher percentage of winning, league-wide.


Maybe, maybe not. But would they yield such high percentage like ours? If I have time, I will try to see if this is true, league-wide.


It most certainly will because scoring the most points in the 3rd quarter is so closely tied to scoring the most points in the game. You make a good point though that we are probably one of the worst 3rd quarter teams.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Ziggy
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 12712

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:56 pm    Post subject:

Exick wrote:
Intensity wrote:
In an interesting study. I found that we are EXACTLY .500 when we are leading after the 4th Quarter. <astonishing>

Umm, you might want to check your numbers there buddy. If the Lakers are .500 when leading after the 4th quarter, then there are new definitions of winning and losing with which I am not familiar.


lol pwned!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lakers0505
Franchise Player
Franchise Player


Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 10701

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:58 pm    Post subject:

Intensity wrote:
In an interesting study. I found that we are EXACTLY .500 when we are leading after the 4th Quarter. <astonishing>


holy (bleep), were in the world did u dig up those statisitcs, great research
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
kells1220
Starting Rotation
Starting Rotation


Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 561
Location: Maryland

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:39 pm    Post subject:

dgrynch wrote:
Interesting observations. I wonder how many 1st quarters that we have won and loss and determine what the final outcome is based on that information?

IMO opinion first and third quarters are where we struggle the most. Thats why i like to see them start the game well.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lakez34
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 24 Apr 2001
Posts: 6077

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:25 pm    Post subject:

^ Definitely. The Lakers come out of the gates flat-footed and have had a tendency to fall behind early of late.

By the time they catch up and get their heads back in the game, the game's either heading for halftime or they get tired and start to foul/ play lazy defense.
Come third quarter, if the game is close, they think they can have a repeat performance of the first half, and actually do. Horrid starts followed by a scramble to catch up (excessive 3 balls being shot up) and lazy defense along with no transition defense.

Come 4th quarter, if the game's still close, they're good to go. If not, they turn over and play dead. By middle of 4th qtr, they try for one more push, fail and end the game losing.


What's all this mean? They need more offensive infusion to start games. I think that's one of the reasons the Lakers have been starting Cook rather than Kwame at the 4 spot, despite Cook's defensive and rebounding woes. He has the potential to be a 2nd or 3rd scoring man for them.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address Reply with quote
lakers2626
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Posts: 1948

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:29 pm    Post subject:

kells1220 wrote:
dgrynch wrote:
Interesting observations. I wonder how many 1st quarters that we have won and loss and determine what the final outcome is based on that information?

IMO opinion first and third quarters are where we struggle the most. Thats why i like to see them start the game well.


You would think because we are so young we would start games and 2nd half with a little bit more energy. Does anybody think that Phil has so much pressure on our guys to run the offense that they're thinking to much and that's why they look flat?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
lakez34
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 24 Apr 2001
Posts: 6077

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:34 pm    Post subject:

I have a feeling some of the guys on this team think they're a better bunch than they are, and come out thinking they can get themselves back into any game where they exert even the slightest bit of extra effort.

When it doesn't work, they can blame it on bad spacing, or the refs or it being the second of a back-to-back, or whatever other excuse. When it works, they go about acting as if this is expected out of the team.

First month of the season, the Lakers played with much more fire, and it showed in their hustle. While hustle isn't going to win you games, it sure will keep you close in them compared to some of the mess the Lakers have been getting themselves into of late.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address Reply with quote
lakers2626
Star Player
Star Player


Joined: 27 Feb 2006
Posts: 1948

PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:44 pm    Post subject:

Well if hustle doesn't win games the lack of hustle will make us lose games, just like now.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Reply with quote
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic    LakersGround.net Forum Index -> LA Lakers Lounge All times are GMT - 8 Hours
Page 1 of 1
Jump to:  

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum






Graphics by uberzev
© 1995-2018 LakersGround.net. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy. Terms of Use.
LakersGround is an unofficial news source serving the fan community since 1995.
We are in no way associated with the Los Angeles Lakers or the National Basketball Association.


Powered by phpBB