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mhan00
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:59 am    Post subject:

Krispy Kreme wrote:
everybody keeps talking about the warriors, and how we have a chance to catch them. how they are choking.


we are 6 games behind them in the loss column. we're not catching them. seriously, people?


Before they won tonight and their previous game, they had lost 6 straight. They beat Phoenix, and if they had lost tonight would have continued their collapse. We also play them twice more, which is a huge key. A loss against the Spurs would have meant that if we won our two games against them we would lock up the tie breaker while also pulling to the same number of losses behind them as Houston, and two more than Utah, giving us another viable team to chase. Unfortunately, they will likely use this game to re-energize themselves, and I stead of heading out onto the road feeling down out and about themselves, possibly dropping more games, they might be feeling good again after a tough fought win.
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pjiddy
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:36 am    Post subject:

P.K. wrote:
Updated the standings & stats in the 1st post for all games through 2/22 - LAL win vs BLAZERS

GAMES: LAL won vs PORT, HOU won vs NETS, GSW won vs SPURS

Summary:
#6 GSW 32-23 (.582), 8 games over .500 with 27 games left
#7 UTA 31-24 (.564), 7 games over .500 with 27 games left
#8 HOU 31-26 (.544), 5 games over .500 with 25 games left
#9 LAL 27029 (.482), 2 games under .500 with 26 games left

FYI: Based on LATIMES article from a couple of days ago (and a little math), only 10 of Houston's remaining 25 games are against teams with winning records.

45 wins is the estimated # for the 8th seed. To reach 45 wins:
LAL 18-8, .692 the rest of the way
GSW 13-14, .481
UTA 14-13, .519
HOU 14-11, .560


I'm thinking Lakers are going to need more like 47-48 wins to get in, considering Jazz and Utah just have to play .500 ball the rest of the way.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:38 am    Post subject:

pjiddy wrote:
P.K. wrote:
Updated the standings & stats in the 1st post for all games through 2/22 - LAL win vs BLAZERS

GAMES: LAL won vs PORT, HOU won vs NETS, GSW won vs SPURS

Summary:
#6 GSW 32-23 (.582), 8 games over .500 with 27 games left
#7 UTA 31-24 (.564), 7 games over .500 with 27 games left
#8 HOU 31-26 (.544), 5 games over .500 with 25 games left
#9 LAL 27029 (.482), 2 games under .500 with 26 games left

FYI: Based on LATIMES article from a couple of days ago (and a little math), only 10 of Houston's remaining 25 games are against teams with winning records.

45 wins is the estimated # for the 8th seed. To reach 45 wins:
LAL 18-8, .692 the rest of the way
GSW 13-14, .481
UTA 14-13, .519
HOU 14-11, .560


I'm thinking Lakers are going to need more like 47-48 wins to get in, considering Jazz and Utah just have to play .500 ball the rest of the way.





what?
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Lakersarethebesteva
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 3:23 am    Post subject:

Damn I just checked the schedule for March....Lakers have quite a few road games at really hard places like @ Denver, @ OKC...and alot of B2Bs........(bleep)!!!!
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LakerFan87
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 3:54 am    Post subject:

Maybe we can have D'Antoni petition to the league to re-start everyone's season and not just the Lakers' season.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 6:37 am    Post subject:

Greatness wrote:
3.5 games can easily be made up. It's just one week of bad basketball and in this league anything can happen. With injuries, shooting slumps, suspensions, etc., those things are bound to happen. Approximately two months left in the season, that's plenty of time to makeup that ground. With that being said, these next two games are crucial and we have to continue doing whatever it takes to win.


It's definitely doable but I wouldn't call it easy. For LA to make it y'all are going to have to win games at a level that far exceeds what you've been winning at this season, and another team is going to have to have a major flop. That combo can happen but it isn't easy. For example, the Rockets had a stretch where we lost 7 in a row and 8 of 9. How many games did LA gain during that stretch? Maybe 3 (going off memory)? We are only 6-4 over the last 10 games and how many games has LA made up?

On of those teams is going to have to majorly suck to close the season. All of these scenarios have LA catching a team that plays .500 ball to close out. Well the Rockets are playing .544 ball, and the schedule lightens up. The Warriors are playing .582 ball and have most of their last games at home. The Jazz schedule does seem tough though.
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Killer_Z
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:00 am    Post subject:

Damn, how many of us wish we could start this season over with a healthy squad.........

In any event, it definitely helps if the other teams drop games, but history has shown, if we can go 20-6 or 21-5 to finish the season, we will make it. Just gotta keep knocking off wins one game at a time.

Wizards have a small chance tonight at an upset, and our annoying little brothers, the Clipps, should beat Utah. Fingers crossed.
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Nordvader
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:16 am    Post subject:

If we hadn't have been so injured I know we would be at least 7 games over .500. We wouldn't be world beaters but we would have some sort of chemistry.

I think tonight is a trap game for the Rockets they responded well after the all-star break with the comeback over the Thunder and the win over the Johnsonless Nets.

The Wizards having been playing well as of late and they beat the Nuggets last night.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 8:58 am    Post subject:

Lakers need to play nearly perfect basketball the remaining 26 games to have a chance. 3.5 games is a lot of games to make up especially if these teams ahead of us don't choke and keep on winning their games.
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:57 am    Post subject:

pjiddy wrote:
P.K. wrote:

45 wins is the estimated # for the 8th seed. To reach 45 wins:
LAL 18-8, .692 the rest of the way
GSW 13-14, .481
UTA 14-13, .519
HOU 14-11, .560


I'm thinking Lakers are going to need more like 47-48 wins to get in, considering Jazz and Utah just have to play .500 ball the rest of the way.

I'm guessing you meant GSW & Utah, but just mistyped it.
Anyway, I agree with you and I'd also outlined that it might take 46 wins or more in one of the updates a couple of days ago. More or less for exactly the same reason you've pointed out:
1. Houston's got an easy route, and only 10 of it's remaining 25 games are against teams with winning records. It's probable HOU improves it's record from here. Not certain, but probable
2. Both GSW & Utah have pretty big margins right now, and as you pointed out only have to play roughly .500 from here on for 45 wins. They might have tougher schedules, but they don't have to do very well to get to 45 wins.

Just an FYI for everyone's clarification
The reason everyone, myself included, are using 45 wins as a target right now is:
1. MDA was quoted as saying it would take "at least 45" a day or 2 before the ASB
2. a couple of days before the ASG break there was an informal coaches poll, and 45 was the # that produced.
3. 1 or 1.5 weeks before the ASG, myself and several other posters had looked at the math & schedules, and logically concluded that 45 was the "probable" target wins based on where all the teams were at. (If teams continue at the current rate, than the "quasi-consensus" on this might change in the next 3-5 days.)

so, 45 was a good "target #" for everyone to look at and be able to compare all 4 teams current status & remaining schedules against - since 45 wins was kind of confirmed by the coaches poll & MDA.

the last 2-3 gamedays before the ASG (and the games since the ASG) have resulted in the other teams winning a couple of games they wouldn't normally have been expected to win, and generally improving their overall record and their outlook. That fact, combined with a rapidly dwindling # of games left, it's looking a lot more likely that it might take 46 or more.
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Last edited by P.K. on Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:25 am; edited 3 times in total
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:03 am    Post subject:

Just win EVERY game until the end of the season.
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vicman
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:03 am    Post subject:

We need John wall and Chris Paul to really ball out tonight. Would set us up good going into Sunday
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Shaqman55
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:03 am    Post subject:

I think the magic number we need to really focus on is losses.

I think from here on out, the Lakers CANNOT afford more than 6 or 7 losses. Houston has found a groove so .600 ball will not be enough to pass them.

Utah is also playing well...they've played over .600 ball for the past 20 games...

The Warriors are too deep and too far ahead.

It's a dead heat right now with Houston and the Lakers need to treat every game like it's their absolute last game on earth...otherwise they're going fishing.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:05 am    Post subject:

Clippers will lose on purpose tonight to spite the Lakers and the Rockets will continue to eat their lucky charms
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:30 am    Post subject:

any time OKC,SAS or LAC play HOU,GSW or UTA they are going to tank games just to screw with us, Spurs definitely won't want us in the 1st round, every W/L is huge right now and even if we get above .500 and end up with 45 wins I fear it will not be enough right now because 45 wins would be enough if UTA and HOU played .500 ball, unfortunately they're playing .600 ball right now, meaning we need to go 20 - 6 to 100% make it.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:37 am    Post subject:

The mighty Lakers are reduced to wishing others help them...crap


WEve sucked
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Shaqman55
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject:

Top 3 teams will tank to keep Lakers out of the playoffs.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:48 am    Post subject:

As wolfpack alluded to, I see the next two games as huge.

0-2 in these next two on the road and realistically, they are done if they aren't done already.

Denver in the 2nd night of a back to back on the road is almost a sure loss, much as it pains me to say that. That means you absolutely have to win the first game, at Dallas.

They must win that game, it really is do or die for the playoffs in my opinion. If they lose at Dallas, they must win at Denver. 2-0 seems too much to hope for but if they could do that, they would really have some momentum going.
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SDLakersFan
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:00 pm    Post subject:

We're playing really good ball right now, I'd just hate for it to be too little too late.

Did we bother to lottery protect any of the picks we traded away? Out of curiosity.
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Shaqman55
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:21 pm    Post subject:

SDLakersFan wrote:
We're playing really good ball right now, I'd just hate for it to be too little too late.

Did we bother to lottery protect any of the picks we traded away? Out of curiosity.


Lottery picks go to the Suns...

The Suns very smartly asked the Lakers to unprotect the picks in the Nash trade... No big deal right? The Lakers are gonna win 60 games anyway with this new super-team they constructed..


Fast forward to today....
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:33 pm    Post subject:

Updated the 1st post stats/numbers for BBall Reference Playoff Probabilities simulation. For those that haven't been following this, BBall Ref has a computer model they run every day based on the previous days games. They run this for all teams in the league, and all remaining games between all teams (ie. it factors in Strength of Remaining Schedule for all teams).

While it's not written in stone that their projections will be right, it is an interesting data point, and their trend lines track more or less what would be expected.

projections based on all games played thru 2/22 (LAL vs. PORTLAND):
#6 HOU (46.9-35.1) - 97% probability to make playoffs
#7 GSW (46.2-35.8) - 94.5%
#8 UTAH (44.3-37.7) - 82.0%
#9 LAL (40.9-41.1) - 23.6%
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Last edited by P.K. on Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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P.K.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:43 pm    Post subject:

GAMES on 2/23 affecting the race for the 8th

HOUSTON @ WASH
UTAH @ CLIPPERS

WASH (16-37) has won 6 of their last 8, both teams played last night, but this is a home game for WASH. While HOU has a much better record, WASH has been reasonably strong lately.

I think Utah vs. the CLIPS is pretty obvious to everyone. Advantage CLIPS, but they have been erratic.
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Last edited by P.K. on Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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lakerfanfor40years
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:05 pm    Post subject:

I personally do not see the Lakers making the playoffs this year, unless Houston just goes into the tank. I can't seen GS or Utah falling like a brick.
I pegges Houston to lose the OKC and hopefully Brooklyn, and they handled both teams.

On the up side the last game of season is at home against Houston, so if they can get to w/in one game it would be for the marbles, because the season series is 1-1 now.
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lakerfanfor40years
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:06 pm    Post subject:

If Lakers want ANY chance of making up ground, they need to sweep in Dallas and Denver, a task that just doesn't see realistic this year.
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MyNameIsEarl
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2013 1:20 pm    Post subject:

lakerfanfor40years wrote:
I personally do not see the Lakers making the playoffs this year, unless Houston just goes into the tank. I can't seen GS or Utah falling like a brick.
I pegges Houston to lose the OKC and hopefully Brooklyn, and they handled both teams.

On the up side the last game of season is at home against Houston, so if they can get to w/in one game it would be for the marbles, because the season series is 1-1 now.


Season series is 2-1 in favor of Houston. If we win that game it'll be 2-2 and the tiebreaker would be record vs. same conference.
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