RIP, Home Court Advantage in the NBA?

 
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:18 pm    Post subject: RIP, Home Court Advantage in the NBA?

Interesting article. The author shows that the value of home court advantage has steadily declined over the past 40 years. This year, the home team is winning just under 54% of games. 10 out of 30 teams are actually better on the road than at home.

The author offers three theories to explain this, all of which probably have some element of truth:

1. Three point shooting reduces the impact of referees, who are influenced by home crowds.

Quote:
You may not have noticed, but the NBA has recently undergone a fundamental shift in play. For the first time in NBA history, there will be more 3-point attempts than free throw attempts this month. First time ever! The average NBA game sees 45 3-pointers compared to 44.7 freebies. Ten seasons ago, those figures were 32.1 and 53.2 in January, respectively. After much headway, teams have finally closed the gap.

Long shots from open players mean less contact, fewer fouls and, therefore, less chance for the humanity of referees to influence outcomes. Numerous studies have shown that referees may be involuntarily influenced by the home crowd.


2. Technology makes it easier for teams to operate on the road.

Quote:
"Teams are smarter about their travel habits and getting rest these days," Mark Cuban tells ESPN.com. "Guys aren't going out as often, so the road just isn't as hard as it used to be."

A bunch of execs we spoke with brought this one up. Maybe the road isn't having the effect it once had on players' bodies, in part because of technology.


Quote:
In the days of VCRs and editing suites, only home teams had their full scouting powers.

"Video technology," says one Eastern Conference general manager, "was an absolute game-changer."

There's also a claim from an executive that the long-term decline of home-court advantage can be attributed to the league-wide shift from flying commercial to flying charter in the late 1980s and early 1990s. By all accounts of early NBA travel, flying coach was brutal. We're talking about the largest humans on the planet packed like 7-foot sardines for hours. Home teams won 67.9 percent of games in 1987-88, but that slowly fell to 57.5 percent by 1994-95 as charters became more popular. Though this wouldn't explain the recent downturn, it helps to explain the massive decline in the 1990s.


3. Social media and corporate boxes have tamed home crowds.

Quote:
This is the Bill Simmons proposal, which he laid out on the B.S. Report talking to Grantland's Zach Lowe, who has also noticed the same trend. Look at the home crowd at any point in a game and chances are you'll find plenty of people too busy glancing at their phones to care about the game. Facebook and the guy at the free throw line are battling for your attention, and many believe Facebook is winning.

It's plausible. Furthermore, the widespread growth of corporate boxes may make the games less populated by the most rabid fans. Compounding that effect is that the HD television experience has improved so dramatically that hard-core fans may rather stay home and watch League Pass instead of ponying up the cash to go to the game.


http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12241619/home-court-advantage-decline

In a separate Insider piece, the author and another writer offer some additional comments. I'll quote the answer to the question that jumps to mind for most of us:

Quote:
Did home-court advantage bounce back last postseason?

Interestingly enough, it did not. Home-court advantage all but disappeared in the playoffs, too; the effect wasn't quarantined in the regular season. The home team went 50-39, winning 56.2 percent of playoff games in 2014. That seems like a healthy edge, but not when we zoom out and find that the home team has enjoyed a 65.1 percent cushion since 1997.

Look in the data and you'll find that home-court advantage typically strengthens in the playoffs. But last postseason, home-court advantage actually shrank. In the 2008 playoffs, the win percentage of home squads stood at 74.4 percent. Once we adjust for pace, the 2008 home team enjoyed a 9.3-point edge on average in the playoffs. Last season, that edge fell to just three points. Yes, sliced down by two-thirds. Crazy, right?
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nevitt_smrek
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:40 pm    Post subject:

I'm glad the Lakers had game 7 at Staples in 2010.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:54 pm    Post subject:

The only difference between home and away crowds is the crowd noise....most NBA arenas nowadays are the same generic layout. No more sweat lodges or dead spots on the court like the Boston Garden back in the old days. Private jet travel and teams access to computing power to do data analysis has pretty much leveled out the competition.
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nevitt_smrek
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:24 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
The only difference between home and away crowds is the crowd noise....most NBA arenas nowadays are the same generic layout. No more sweat lodges or dead spots on the court like the Boston Garden back in the old days. Private jet travel and teams access to computing power to do data analysis has pretty much leveled out the competition.


But the officials are the human element. They can be swayed by momentum of the home team and the crowd noise that comes with it. Then there are little things like being in your own locker room, sleeping in your own bed, etc.
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:49 am    Post subject:

These numbers would be interesting to crunch.

I wonder if, say, home court advantage becomes more important if teams are more evenly matched.

If the Spurs are playing the Twolves, you'd expect the Spurs to win home or away. But would home court be a factor if pretty evenly matched teams -- the Mavs, Rockets and Clippers -- played?

Does home court advantage change in different playoff rounds -- it doesn't matter in the first round, but it does in the finals?
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Telleris
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:35 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
These numbers would be interesting to crunch.

I wonder if, say, home court advantage becomes more important if teams are more evenly matched.

If the Spurs are playing the Twolves, you'd expect the Spurs to win home or away. But would home court be a factor if pretty evenly matched teams -- the Mavs, Rockets and Clippers -- played?

Does home court advantage change in different playoff rounds -- it doesn't matter in the first round, but it does in the finals?


The Home team has won the last ermm, 5 or 6 game 7 finals, but we're talking over a 30 year period, so there wouldn't really be enough data (especially since we're talking about a really recent trend)

I'd like to see this carry through next years regular season before making any declarations though, as scheduling could do this in a single year (such as a disproportionate number of b2bs ending in home games etc)

One thing though, roster turnover has been higher during the salary cap ero, and this latest cba has brought it to a new velocity, I'd be curious if having so many teams made up of guys who were elsewhere months earlier has altered things like comfort level for the home teams role players, maybe it's just my memory playing tricks, but i remember quite often watching role players play like ass on the road with solid consistency, but i don't really feel like that anymore.

Also on the issue of the distraction topic, I remember Jalen saying recently that you're probably less likely to get up to mischief on the road than at home now, since you're operating with everyone else surrounding you, whereas at home, you're on your own til you turn up to the venues.
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