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AY2043
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Joined: 26 Feb 2012
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 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | 18/10 and 35 mpg is insane for a rookie. I expect something more along the lines of 14/7 and 28 mpg. |
And even that is a lofty expectation. No rookie has done that since Blake Griffin & DeMarcus Cousins both did it in 2010-11. |
If he can get 12/6 in 26 min with a couple 20/10 games sprinkled in here and there, I'd be ecstatic. Expecting 18/10 his first year is a lot, especially with how he looked in SL/Pre-season. He showed tons of flashes there, but the numbers weren't anywhere close to being there. But that's all I really want to see out him next year - flashes.
18/10 by his 3rd year or so is realistic tho. with what I've seen of him, I think those could be around his career averages. |
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GoldenThroat
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Joined: 25 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| AY2043 wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | 18/10 and 35 mpg is insane for a rookie. I expect something more along the lines of 14/7 and 28 mpg. |
And even that is a lofty expectation. No rookie has done that since Blake Griffin & DeMarcus Cousins both did it in 2010-11. |
If he can get 12/6 in 26 min with a couple 20/10 games sprinkled in here and there, I'd be ecstatic. Expecting 18/10 his first year is a lot, especially with how he looked in SL/Pre-season. He showed tons of flashes there, but the numbers weren't anywhere close to being there. But that's all I really want to see out him next year - flashes.
18/10 by his 3rd year or so is realistic tho. with what I've seen of him, I think those could be around his career averages. |
This is pretty close to where my expectations are as well. |
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gibbiesmalls
Sixth Man
Joined: 22 Apr 2014
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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| 44TheLogo wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | jorkerjork wrote: | | lakerglory wrote: | | Mario Hezonja = Klay Thompson on steroids plus more upside and play making abilities. |
I'm really concerned about how Hezonja had a free throw drawing rate of 0.06 in 28 games at the ACB. That's more than enough games to make a determination--so in 417 minutes, he only went to the line...2 times? I really, really wonder if he shies away from contact. That's extremely outliery bad.
Even in the 22 games in the Euroleague, he only had a foul drawing rate of 0.18--in my mind, a foul drawing rate below 0.2, much less 0.25, is troubling, especially for perceived athletes like Hezonja.
I keep wondering if Terrence Ross is the best comparison, game-wise. Ross was also a flaky athlete-three point shooting type who really, really struggled to draw fouls. Klay was admittedly very similar at age 19, but he's just one comparison--my top three comps to Hezonja were Rudy Fernandez, Nando De Colo and Terrence Ross. |
can you tell me where you're getting advanced stats for euroleague? |
I just looked on b-r. Last season Hezonja had .212 FTr, and the season previous to that he had .286. This season he is at .125.
Interesting observation and I can see why that is a problem. |
Poor ball handling! To draw fouls you have to get to the basket, to get to the basket you have to be able to handle the ball! Since it's a weakness of his, he avoids it. |
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panamaniac
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Joined: 28 May 2011
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| I predicted 15 and 7 for Randle before his injury. I will stick with that prediction for his 'rookie' year. |
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Dave20
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Joined: 15 Jun 2013
Posts: 11333
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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| I think 18/10/4, 48% FG, 34 mpg is very realistic for Randle next year. He won't be a rookie, he's learned a lot by sitting out. Wiggins avg 17 and 36 mpg and he wasn't efficient. Randle can get his own shot, take it coast to coast, and he'll get to the FT line. Clarkson and Kobe will get him easier looks as well. He's now shooting midrange shots and 3's with consistency, he's going to be a force next year. He's just as skilled if not more then Griffin was going into his 2nd year. |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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I love Randle but people predicting that he's going to go nearly 20/10 his first year will be in for a rude awakening. 13/8 would be an awesome first season followed by something like 15/9 the next.
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Jim99187
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | I love Randle but people predicting that he's going to go nearly 20/10 his first year will be in for a rude awakening. 13/8 would be an awesome first season followed by something like 15/9 the next. |
na dog, he will average 24/14/5 with 38 mins. he learnt so much this yr offcourt. he is mentally ready even if his body hasnt gone through anything
such a randle hater u are yinomes |
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Dave20
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Next year won't be his 1st year, it will be his 2nd. I had him at 15/9 his rookie year. If Wiggins can avg 17 with a 13 PER, Randle will at least avg 18 with near 20 PER. He's a better player and always in attack mode. He's also a lefty, more difficult to guard. |
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Jim99187
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Dave20 wrote: | | Next year won't be his 1st year, it will be his 2nd. I had him at 15/9 his rookie year. If Wiggins can avg 17 with a 13 PER, Randle will at least avg 18 with near 20 PER. He's a better player and always in attack mode. He's also a lefty, more difficult to guard. |
Not if the Lakers get your Stanley Johnson and Greg Monroe. 
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Jim99187
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Joined: 03 Jan 2014
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Dave20 wrote: | | Next year won't be his 1st year, it will be his 2nd. I had him at 15/9 his rookie year. If Wiggins can avg 17 with a 13 PER, Randle will at least avg 18 with near 20 PER. He's a better player and always in attack mode. He's also a lefty, more difficult to guard. |
Not if the Lakers get your Stanley Johnson and Greg Monroe. |
yoo miles turner is going to defensive anchor + 22/13 in his rookie season.
with his jeda tricks, he has already played all the 2nd season.
its his 2nd season |
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Dave20
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Joined: 15 Jun 2013
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Dave20 wrote: | | Next year won't be his 1st year, it will be his 2nd. I had him at 15/9 his rookie year. If Wiggins can avg 17 with a 13 PER, Randle will at least avg 18 with near 20 PER. He's a better player and always in attack mode. He's also a lefty, more difficult to guard. |
Not if the Lakers get your Stanley Johnson and Greg Monroe. :wink: |
Monroe is headed to the Knicks, but he would still be a better option then your fav RJax... I think Stanley would be a good fit, so would Russell or Winslow. |
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botox
Starting Rotation
Joined: 02 Apr 2015
Posts: 640
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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| gibbiesmalls wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | jorkerjork wrote: | | lakerglory wrote: | | Mario Hezonja = Klay Thompson on steroids plus more upside and play making abilities. |
I'm really concerned about how Hezonja had a free throw drawing rate of 0.06 in 28 games at the ACB. That's more than enough games to make a determination--so in 417 minutes, he only went to the line...2 times? I really, really wonder if he shies away from contact. That's extremely outliery bad.
Even in the 22 games in the Euroleague, he only had a foul drawing rate of 0.18--in my mind, a foul drawing rate below 0.2, much less 0.25, is troubling, especially for perceived athletes like Hezonja.
I keep wondering if Terrence Ross is the best comparison, game-wise. Ross was also a flaky athlete-three point shooting type who really, really struggled to draw fouls. Klay was admittedly very similar at age 19, but he's just one comparison--my top three comps to Hezonja were Rudy Fernandez, Nando De Colo and Terrence Ross. |
can you tell me where you're getting advanced stats for euroleague? |
I just looked on b-r. Last season Hezonja had .212 FTr, and the season previous to that he had .286. This season he is at .125.
Interesting observation and I can see why that is a problem. |
Poor ball handling! To draw fouls you have to get to the basket, to get to the basket you have to be able to handle the ball! Since it's a weakness of his, he avoids it. |
Maybe. Or it could be that the lane is clogged due to no defensive 3 second rule in Euro basketball and he's confident taking what the defense gives. If you can stroke, stroke it. I don't think he lacks aggressiveness looking at the way he finishes at the rim. Plus, I think he only averages 17 minutes a game.
Is FTR a 40-minute prorated average? Or is it by game per player? I'm not sure. If it's the former, it might be a slight concern. If it's the latter, I wouldn't be worried. |
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Dave20
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | I love Randle but people predicting that he's going to go nearly 20/10 his first year will be in for a rude awakening. 13/8 would be an awesome first season followed by something like 15/9 the next. |
Some things are easier to predict then others. Go back to the 1st page of the Clarkson thread, you we're a bit skeptical about him just being a starter. I understand that you don't like to put lofty expectations on players, but Randle being great next year is a given to me. I guess you can call it the eye test, his talent screams star. |
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botox
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| KeepItRealOrElse wrote: | Botox, didn't know that about Butler. Didn't follow him in college, was also real skeptical of his breakout performance in the playoffs - but he's kept it up, and improved. I stay thinking that you have to be more skilled than that to be a close to 20ppg scorer.. Guess not
So I see you like Porzingis a lot. I have too this whole year. Would you draft him for us tho? To play the 5? |
I think Towns, Hezonja and Porzingis all have higher ceilings than anyone else in the draft. Might be a while until that potential is reached, though. Nowitzki was crap his first year, but by year three he was a 20PPG guy.
I like length and athleticism. Porzingis is 7-1, long arms, shoots well, blocks shots and looks to have good enough feet to be a decent defensive player. He may never be a dominant rebounder, but he'll be better once he packs on some weight and muscle to that Kate Moss-like frame.
IMO, I don't think he could play 5 unless it's to match a small-ball lineup. He'll probably be bullied by 3 and 4s, but his length will be a great neutralizer. If he's quick enough, like someone said earlier, I'd like to see if he could play the 3.
If Towns, Okafor and Hezonja are off the board, I take him. It would take a GM with steely balls and crazy job security to pass on Okafor for Porzingis. Okafor will most likely have a more productive rookie year, but Porzingis could be a better NBA player in three years.
ESPN had a nice question. If Porzingis played in the NCAA last year, would he be the No. 1 player on the draft board? |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Dave20 wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | I love Randle but people predicting that he's going to go nearly 20/10 his first year will be in for a rude awakening. 13/8 would be an awesome first season followed by something like 15/9 the next. |
Some things are easier to predict then others. Go back to the 1st page of the Clarkson thread, you we're a bit skeptical about him just being a starter. I understand that you don't like to put lofty expectations on players, but Randle being great next year is a given to me. I guess you can call it the eye test, his talent screams star. |
I think he will be good too. Just not in his first full season. I have a longer outlook.
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lukewaltonsdad
Star Player
Joined: 09 Jul 2014
Posts: 2983
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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| I'd be ecstatic if Randle could even play 75-78 games next year with no issues to that leg or foot... |
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a2j1m
Star Player
Joined: 06 May 2013
Posts: 3734
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
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panamaniac
Franchise Player
Joined: 28 May 2011
Posts: 11239
Location: PTY
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| a2j1m wrote: | 4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
I'll take Mudiay over Rubio any day. |
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botox
Starting Rotation
Joined: 02 Apr 2015
Posts: 640
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| a2j1m wrote: | 4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
I'd rather have LaVine than Rubio. IDK, if I'd make a trade for Rubio. He's fragileee |
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a2j1m
Star Player
Joined: 06 May 2013
Posts: 3734
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| The Grind wrote: | | a2j1m wrote: | 4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
I'll take Mudiay over Rubio any day. |
Sure, Rubio is still very very young.. Marketing in LA would be huge and I like Dieng... Just a suggestion |
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Megaton
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Posts: 25636
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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Rubio...freaking...ew.
I can't believe I'm saying this but I would even risk Mudiay over Rubio all day everyday. |
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scoobs
Star Player
Joined: 19 Aug 2005
Posts: 4746
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| botox wrote: | | KeepItRealOrElse wrote: | Botox, didn't know that about Butler. Didn't follow him in college, was also real skeptical of his breakout performance in the playoffs - but he's kept it up, and improved. I stay thinking that you have to be more skilled than that to be a close to 20ppg scorer.. Guess not
So I see you like Porzingis a lot. I have too this whole year. Would you draft him for us tho? To play the 5? |
I think Towns, Hezonja and Porzingis all have higher ceilings than anyone else in the draft. Might be a while until that potential is reached, though. Nowitzki was crap his first year, but by year three he was a 20PPG guy.
I like length and athleticism. Porzingis is 7-1, long arms, shoots well, blocks shots and looks to have good enough feet to be a decent defensive player. He may never be a dominant rebounder, but he'll be better once he packs on some weight and muscle to that Kate Moss-like frame.
IMO, I don't think he could play 5 unless it's to match a small-ball lineup. He'll probably be bullied by 3 and 4s, but his length will be a great neutralizer. If he's quick enough, like someone said earlier, I'd like to see if he could play the 3.
If Towns, Okafor and Hezonja are off the board, I take him. It would take a GM with steely balls and crazy job security to pass on Okafor for Porzingis. Okafor will most likely have a more productive rookie year, but Porzingis could be a better NBA player in three years.
ESPN had a nice question. If Porzingis played in the NCAA last year, would he be the No. 1 player on the draft board? |
Hizinga is ready right now imo. At 20 years old with 4 years professional experience under his belt, he is not like a sophomore coming out of college imo. |
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a2j1m
Star Player
Joined: 06 May 2013
Posts: 3734
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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| botox wrote: | | a2j1m wrote: | 4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
I'd rather have LaVine than Rubio. IDK, if I'd make a trade for Rubio. He's fragileee |
Curry was also suppose to be "fragile"... Injuries happen.... Rubio is very fun to watch and he's soooo young I'm sure he can get a jumper like Tony Parker did.
Idk if Twolves would trade LaVine but I did hear Rubio could be on the block |
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panamaniac
Franchise Player
Joined: 28 May 2011
Posts: 11239
Location: PTY
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| Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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| a2j1m wrote: | | The Grind wrote: | | a2j1m wrote: | 4th pick for Rubio and Dieng ?
2 young guys all getting better... I'd love Rubio in a Lakers Jersey
Maybe do a Nick Young-Kevin Martin swap
Twelves may have 2 top 5 picks and a future team around
Mudiay
LaVine
Wiggins
Towns |
I'll take Mudiay over Rubio any day. |
Sure, Rubio is still very very young.. Marketing in LA would be huge and I like Dieng... Just a suggestion |
I like Dieng, not at the expense of the pick though. The thing with Rubio is he's so injury prone, and he can' t shoot or score. He's also very unathletic. This team is in dire need of more top shelf athletes. No Wesley J doesn't count. |
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