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Bard207
Star Player
Joined: 08 Jan 2013
Posts: 7713
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 Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2015 9:30 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | One problem is the discussion on a board like this tends to be pretty shallow -- we never even approached anything that was really controversial about the topic itself. And often, after everyone has repeated their position three or four times, someone gets frustrated and starts lashing out at others.
So the problem isn't about debate over the topic. In this case, the problem was a poster charging that others disagreed with him because of racism and jealousy of him and other such ridiculous things. |
His post on the first page of this discussion thread hinted at how difficult it was going to be to change his mind about analytics. |
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activeverb
Retired Number
Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
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| Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:48 am Post subject: |
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| Bard207 wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | One problem is the discussion on a board like this tends to be pretty shallow -- we never even approached anything that was really controversial about the topic itself. And often, after everyone has repeated their position three or four times, someone gets frustrated and starts lashing out at others.
So the problem isn't about debate over the topic. In this case, the problem was a poster charging that others disagreed with him because of racism and jealousy of him and other such ridiculous things. |
His post on the first page of this discussion thread hinted at how difficult it was going to be to change his mind about analytics. |
I don't think people expected to change his mind. At best, they were trying to find some common ground to begin a discussion. But then it turned really nasty when he started going off on all this mystifying tangents, like accusing other posters of disagreeing with him only because he was black (which I didn't even realize until he made the racism charge). The last page of this thread left me scratching my head. |
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Treble Clef
Franchise Player
Joined: 20 Nov 2012
Posts: 23899
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| Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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| KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: |
You lost me in the first three words. That shouldn't even be a statement coming from you towards me. |
I haven't been unfair to you, nor do I dislike you. I don't know why you keep assuming such things about the people who disagree with your stance here. When you're by yourself on an island in a discussion, sometimes it might be prudent to stop and ask yourself why that is.
Kobe and analytics are not mutually exclusive so covering your eyes and ears and yelling LA LA LA when the topic of analytics comes up just isn't necessary. The numbers and the numerous ways of analyzing them all say that Kobe is an all time great. The benefits of using analytics are real. It's not even a debate. |
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twisted
Star Player
Joined: 09 Jun 2012
Posts: 1265
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| Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 3:33 am Post subject: |
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| fiendishoc wrote: | | SuperboyReformed wrote: |
I was just watching a little highlight of Magic where there's a scramble on the opponents' basket, he gets the ball, dribbles and weaves his way through various defenders full court until he gets to the basket, and int he middle of all those guys, he does a couple of nifty arm and head fakes and scores a tricky layup. It's like one of the goat-est things I've seen. Analytics can't analyze that. In fact, it might try and say some weird things about it...like maybe he should have passed instead of dribbling up, or something stupid like that. This numbers game is hard in basketball. baseball is much more suited to numbers because it's not so free flowing as basketball. It's so limited in the interaction, and so many stops and discrete plays occur. It's highly repetitive, and gaining a slight statistical advantage really makes a difference. Basketball is not like this, so sometimes I feel we are forcing the analysis. |
As an untrained scientist myself, I believe I have devised an analytical solution that can help solve the problem of measuring Magic's greatness. Magic often created Arranged Standard Scoring Transfers from Individual to Scoring Teammate, or as I like to call them, "ASSIST"'s, that would not have otherwise been there. Now, as he accumulates these "assists" over the course of the game, we can add them up and even average them over a period to come up with a measure called "'assists' per game". Also, I bet that if we added all of these "assists" over the course of his career he might have even had the most of these "assists" all team at the time he retired. I'm now working on a paper on "assists" for the next MIT Sloan conference. Will keep everyone posted here. |
I have just started to read through this thread but can t resist to chime in and say this is f-ing awesome.
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“God knew they couldn’t be on this Earth without each other. He had to bring them home to have them together.” – Vanessa Bryant |
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venturalakersfan
Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144461
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:42 am Post subject: |
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I am old enough to laugh at the idea that someone has given a name to a process used for decades (analytics) and then deride it as some sort of voodoo. What analytics can tell us and the methods used to collect then have changed, but the use of them have been going on for as long as I can remember.
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RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:54 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | I am old enough to laugh at the idea that someone has given a name to a process used for decades (analytics) and then deride it as some sort of voodoo. What analytics can tell us and the methods used to collect then have changed, but the use of them have been going on for as long as I can remember. |
Yeah. For some reason, people seem to conflate the concept of "analytics" with its improper application.
People just need to realize that it is simply a number of extra tools in the toolbag. And the smartest folks, are not the ones who make decisions purely on observation, or the ones that make them purely on the analytics. The smartest ones are those who know how to take the right information from both methods and apply them together to make the most informed decision possible. |
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SuperboyReformed
Star Player
Joined: 07 Oct 2012
Posts: 4083
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| Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| twisted wrote: | | fiendishoc wrote: | | SuperboyReformed wrote: |
I was just watching a little highlight of Magic where there's a scramble on the opponents' basket, he gets the ball, dribbles and weaves his way through various defenders full court until he gets to the basket, and int he middle of all those guys, he does a couple of nifty arm and head fakes and scores a tricky layup. It's like one of the goat-est things I've seen. Analytics can't analyze that. In fact, it might try and say some weird things about it...like maybe he should have passed instead of dribbling up, or something stupid like that. This numbers game is hard in basketball. baseball is much more suited to numbers because it's not so free flowing as basketball. It's so limited in the interaction, and so many stops and discrete plays occur. It's highly repetitive, and gaining a slight statistical advantage really makes a difference. Basketball is not like this, so sometimes I feel we are forcing the analysis. |
As an untrained scientist myself, I believe I have devised an analytical solution that can help solve the problem of measuring Magic's greatness. Magic often created Arranged Standard Scoring Transfers from Individual to Scoring Teammate, or as I like to call them, "ASSIST"'s, that would not have otherwise been there. Now, as he accumulates these "assists" over the course of the game, we can add them up and even average them over a period to come up with a measure called "'assists' per game". Also, I bet that if we added all of these "assists" over the course of his career he might have even had the most of these "assists" all team at the time he retired. I'm now working on a paper on "assists" for the next MIT Sloan conference. Will keep everyone posted here. |
I have just started to read through this thread but can t resist to chime in and say this is f-ing awesome. |
boy, i'm really getting a lot of flak on this one! lol.
like eddie murphy said...i brought that s--- on myself!
but like my mom always told me...you can't have an assist without an ass.  |
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70sdude
Star Player
Joined: 05 Feb 2009
Posts: 4567
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| Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2015 9:06 am Post subject: |
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| SuperboyReformed wrote: | I am a trained scientist, so I do enjoy this video. But if I take my science hat off for a second, I am getting increasingly frustrated by all the hype surrounding stats and analytics in basketball. Not because of anything that is inherently wrong with the science of it, just the way it is being used, and especially the way it is being "sold" to the public.
As a fan, before you eat up all these numbers and graphs, etc. you have to first be aware of the massive amount of assumptions you are making in your conclusions. For example, in our latest season, we were tanking. now, as an organization and league, you can't actually say that, so it won't be in the media, it won't be discussed in heavy detail, it won't really be addressed at all, it will just be ignored basically. And all the talk will be as if there isn't tanking going on.
I mention this because now we get the numbers for the season. Well, what are supposed to make of it? If we're tanking, what do these numbers really mean? Not much. For an individual player, it can reveal certain tendencies and it can be used to analyze some things that way. But because the organization is not trying to win, it's hard to say how those conclusions will translate during a game or season where they really are trying to win. So analyzing the play of a player or team without factoring in these kinds of sensitive political characteristics will lead to conclusions that don't mean much. Byron Scott is not a good or bad coach based on last season. we don't know how good or bad he is right now. Same with most of the players.
These are difficult discussions, similar to the way economic philosophies are debated and discussed. It's emotional, it's hard, there's a lot of gray area, etc.
So analytics told Battier to make Kobe shoot going to the left. OK. I just don't know how valuable that information is. This is the struggle the Lakers org is currently going through as they are kind of being criticized for not using analytics as much as some feel they should. But they have a point, sort of.
I was just watching a little highlight of Magic where there's a scramble on the opponents' basket, he gets the ball, dribbles and weaves his way through various defenders full court until he gets to the basket, and int he middle of all those guys, he does a couple of nifty arm and head fakes and scores a tricky layup. It's like one of the goat-est things I've seen. Analytics can't analyze that. In fact, it might try and say some weird things about it...like maybe he should have passed instead of dribbling up, or something stupid like that. This numbers game is hard in basketball. baseball is much more suited to numbers because it's not so free flowing as basketball. It's so limited in the interaction, and so many stops and discrete plays occur. It's highly repetitive, and gaining a slight statistical advantage really makes a difference. Basketball is not like this, so sometimes I feel we are forcing the analysis. |
IN terms of making poor assumptions, yours* stands out as a classic in terms of the scientific method. It's an hilariously poor assumption made about the first half of the season at the very least, but once made, leads to ever poorer conclusions.
I don't think we should assume that the club was tanking (not trying hard to win games at season's start.). Instead, Kobe and Randle's injuries led to a disintegration of winning chances. The better assumption is that the club failed to create a successful team before the start of the season. They employed an ancient faded star at excessive cost despite a pattern of season-ending injuries. They hired a rather poor coach compared to most. They hired in a roster comprised of mostly historically poor or second unit players and failed to attract a single highly coveted free agent. That's not tanking. That's flawed decision-making, if not idiotic behavior. Idiots don't win, ever. |
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nickuku
Star Player
Joined: 09 Jul 2010
Posts: 7844
Location: Orange County
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| Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:37 am Post subject: |
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Bookmarking for later tonight.
Is KBCB perma-banned or is it temp?
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Don't let perfect be the enemy of good |
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DanielCollins
Sixth Man
Joined: 18 Aug 2015
Posts: 40
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| Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | "After studying and going through the school of analytics I knew exactly to a tee who Kobe Bryant was." ~Shane Battier |
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SuperboyReformed
Star Player
Joined: 07 Oct 2012
Posts: 4083
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| Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:55 pm Post subject: |
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| 70sdude wrote: | | SuperboyReformed wrote: | I am a trained scientist, so I do enjoy this video. But if I take my science hat off for a second, I am getting increasingly frustrated by all the hype surrounding stats and analytics in basketball. Not because of anything that is inherently wrong with the science of it, just the way it is being used, and especially the way it is being "sold" to the public.
As a fan, before you eat up all these numbers and graphs, etc. you have to first be aware of the massive amount of assumptions you are making in your conclusions. For example, in our latest season, we were tanking. now, as an organization and league, you can't actually say that, so it won't be in the media, it won't be discussed in heavy detail, it won't really be addressed at all, it will just be ignored basically. And all the talk will be as if there isn't tanking going on.
I mention this because now we get the numbers for the season. Well, what are supposed to make of it? If we're tanking, what do these numbers really mean? Not much. For an individual player, it can reveal certain tendencies and it can be used to analyze some things that way. But because the organization is not trying to win, it's hard to say how those conclusions will translate during a game or season where they really are trying to win. So analyzing the play of a player or team without factoring in these kinds of sensitive political characteristics will lead to conclusions that don't mean much. Byron Scott is not a good or bad coach based on last season. we don't know how good or bad he is right now. Same with most of the players.
These are difficult discussions, similar to the way economic philosophies are debated and discussed. It's emotional, it's hard, there's a lot of gray area, etc.
So analytics told Battier to make Kobe shoot going to the left. OK. I just don't know how valuable that information is. This is the struggle the Lakers org is currently going through as they are kind of being criticized for not using analytics as much as some feel they should. But they have a point, sort of.
I was just watching a little highlight of Magic where there's a scramble on the opponents' basket, he gets the ball, dribbles and weaves his way through various defenders full court until he gets to the basket, and int he middle of all those guys, he does a couple of nifty arm and head fakes and scores a tricky layup. It's like one of the goat-est things I've seen. Analytics can't analyze that. In fact, it might try and say some weird things about it...like maybe he should have passed instead of dribbling up, or something stupid like that. This numbers game is hard in basketball. baseball is much more suited to numbers because it's not so free flowing as basketball. It's so limited in the interaction, and so many stops and discrete plays occur. It's highly repetitive, and gaining a slight statistical advantage really makes a difference. Basketball is not like this, so sometimes I feel we are forcing the analysis. |
IN terms of making poor assumptions, yours* stands out as a classic in terms of the scientific method. It's an hilariously poor assumption made about the first half of the season at the very least, but once made, leads to ever poorer conclusions.
I don't think we should assume that the club was tanking (not trying hard to win games at season's start.). Instead, Kobe and Randle's injuries led to a disintegration of winning chances. The better assumption is that the club failed to create a successful team before the start of the season. They employed an ancient faded star at excessive cost despite a pattern of season-ending injuries. They hired a rather poor coach compared to most. They hired in a roster comprised of mostly historically poor or second unit players and failed to attract a single highly coveted free agent. That's not tanking. That's flawed decision-making, if not idiotic behavior. Idiots don't win, ever. |
My bad. We weren't tanking. |
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