By the Numbers: 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers
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A Mad Chinaman
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:52 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
defense wrote:
24 wrote:
Young can have a nice late career as s spot up shooter. He has streakiness, but I have to give him a lot of props for embracing the role. As Russell develops, he's going to see a lot of open shots.
I always disliked young because of the way he played but so far this season I think he's doing a good job offensively. I would like to see a bit more energy on defense but he has been good over all by his standards.
He's never going to be a very good defender, but as a solid spot up guy who can play both wing spots and can also get you some bail out scores, he's solid, especially at the MLE level.
As part of the 2nd team, agree he has value since the bench has Lou Williams to be a consistent, versatile and effective scorer
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:22 am    Post subject:

From FB&G: http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2015/11/09/some-lakers-offensive-stats-worth-your-time/

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The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in the number of possessions which end in an isolation (14.7% of their possessions), but rank 27th in points per play at 0.64.

The Lakers rank 3rd in the league in possessions which end in the pick and roll ball-handler shooting (22%), and rank 2nd in points per play at 0.97.

The Lakers are 30th in the league in the number of possessions which end in a spot up shot attempt (14.7%), but rank 1st in points per play at 1.16.

The Lakers rank 13th in the number of possessions which end in a player shooting when coming off a screen (5.3%), but rank 30th in points per play 0.44.

The Lakers rank 25th in the number of possessions which end in a post-up shot attempt, but rank 7th in points per play at 0.95.

First, the good news. For all the hand wringing about wanting the Lakers to run more pick and roll, they are actually doing it a fair amount. Recent work against the Nuggets, Nets, and Knicks (half their six games) has seen them commit to this action more and it is reflected in the numbers. Considering the Lakers have several players — primarily Clarkson, Lou Williams, and D’Angelo Russell — who have a lot of comfort level in this play, it’s good to see they are running it as much as they are.

Second, The Lakers are actually doing some things very well. Their points per play produced are high in several areas. Ranking 2nd in the P&R and 1st in spot ups is fantastic. Ranking 1st in spot up shooting is, frankly, unbelievable even though the team has some very good spot up options. (Jordan Clarkson is killing in this area, by the way). Ranking 7th in points per play on post-ups isn’t so surprising, but it is great to see the guys executing well on a play that isn’t known for its efficiency league wide.

Now, the bad news. The fact that the Lakers are running as many isolations as they are is concerning. The fact that they’re producing so few points per play is, well, beyond troubling. While the team isn’t in the top 10 of number of possessions for shooting coming off screens, the fact that they’re only producing 0.44 points per play is, frankly, awful. I would hope this number would progress to the mean, but if the main guys taking these shots are Kobe and Nick Young coming off pin-downs that get them top of the key three pointers, it may not happen.

Further, some of the play types the Lakers are actually good at are not being utilized enough. Spot up jumpers are typically generated out of drive and kicks or out of ball movement against a rotating defense. The Lakers simply do not do enough of either and, it seems, their offense suffers from it. Regarding post-ups, you do not think of the Lakers as having great post options, but Randle and Kobe are both producing at over 1.0 points per play. Kobe, specifically, could benefit from getting more possessions in the post, especially when the defense switches a smaller player onto him out of PG/SF pick and rolls.

While there is noise in these numbers (it’s only been six games caveat goes here), it is clear to me the Lakers would be better off offensively if they leveraged some of their playmakers to turn isolations for shots into isolations which lead to kick outs. These types of actions would lead to more spot up jumpers either off the initial catch or via ball movement against a rotating defense. The Lakers are currently 27th in assists per game (17.8), so more passing in general is a good thing.

Further, I believe generating more ball movement out of the P&R is also needed. Clarkson, Williams, and even Russell are pretty shot happy out of the P&R’s the team does run and the entire team would benefit if some of those shots turned into passes. Either to the roll man (hello Tarik Black) or to wings spotting up on either side of the floor.

Ultimately, these are things that could grow organically as time goes on. We must remember the Lakers roster has been turned over by half and the head coach is still searching for lineups which work well together. Familiarity will, hopefully, breed better results and smarter shot selection. Hopefully.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:26 am    Post subject:

Lou is shooting 32 percent yet he seems to be our go to guy down the stretch

Lou 14.1, 2.9, 2.7 .325 fg

Russell 8.6, 2.6, 3.3 .397 fg

According to Scott Lou has been better than Russell and deserves to be in there???
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:40 am    Post subject:

They need to separate pick and roll, pick and pop, and pick and 'stand there'.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 10:22 am    Post subject:

I am just getting into the advanced stats but here are a few things that I found interesting.

The Lakers have the lowest number of passes (240) and touches (386) while Philly has the 2nd highest number of passes (345.6) and third highest number of touches (471.6). The Spurs are tops in both. We take a PG that has next level court vision instead of a ballstopping post player and yet we are on the opposite side of passes and touches. Besides having a semi respectable defense, I really want to see consistent ball movement.

D-Lo has a Player Impact Estimate (PIE) of 1.6 at home and 11.9 on the road. NBA.com states that above 10 represents an above average player. There is no doubt that D-Lo has been getting better. His overall PIE is 7.2 while Mudiay is 5.5. Here's the actual equation for PIE (explained here):

Quote:
PIE measures a player's overall statistical contribution against the total statistics in games they play in. PIE yields results which are comparable to other advanced statistics (e.g. PER) using a simple formula.(PTS + FGM + FTM - FGA - FTA + DREB + (.5 * OREB) + AST + STL + (.5 * BLK) - PF - TO) / (GmPTS + GmFGM + GmFTM - GmFGA - GmFTA + GmDREB + (.5 * GmOREB) + GmAST + GmSTL + (.5 * GmBLK) - GmPF - GmTO)
LINK


The player getting consistent regular minutes on the Lakers with the highest PIE is ... Nick Young at 12.9 followed by Randle at 9.8. Out of players getting regular burn, Kobe is the worst at 6.2.

To date D-Lo and Nick Young have only been in the same line-up for 12 minutes and the bulk of that was with the Kelly/Bass debacle. Given the state of the season so far, I would be inclined to try a lineup of D-Lo, Clarkson, Young, Randle, Hibbert, which as near as I can tell has not been tried at all. Randle, Clarkson, D-Lo are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in defensive rating respectively on the team, along with Hibbert that line-up should be able to cover for Young.
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nash
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:02 pm    Post subject:

defense wrote:
Lou is shooting 32 percent yet he seems to be our go to guy down the stretch

Lou 14.1, 2.9, 2.7 .325 fg

Russell 8.6, 2.6, 3.3 .397 fg

According to Scott Lou has been better than Russell and deserves to be in there???


You can't take just Lou FG% because he is all the time trying to get to the line. He is pretty efficient scoring despite the low FG% if you ask me.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:43 pm    Post subject:

Much has been made of Byron not playing Russell in the 4th quarter, but I want to focus on the effect that it has on Lou Williams for a moment. Williams is frequently coming in around the 5 minute mark of the 3rd quarter, and then playing the rest of the game. This means that's he playing a 17 minute shift, which is an extreme rarity in the NBA in all but the deep playoffs with a superstar. Let's take a look at Williams' offensive production in the 2nd half, at the different minute points of his shift.

Lou Williams Points Per Possession, By Shift Length

Minute Mark.......PPP

0-12 minutes.......0.91
12+ minutes........0.77

The defensive end is difficult to quantify in this respect, but you'd have to imagine that there's a slip on that end too in minutes 12-17 of a shift.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:08 am    Post subject:

Box Plus/Minus, 2015-16 Lakers, 11/12/15 (minimum 75 minutes played)

1) Metta World Peace.........+4.7
2) Roy Hibbert..................+2.2
3) Nick Young...................+0.9
4) Lou Williams..................-1.4
5) D'Angelo Russell.............-2.8
6) Jordan Clarkson..............-2.9
7) Ryan Kelly......................-3.5
8) Brandon Bass.................-3.9
9) Kobe Bryant...................-4.2
10) Marcelo Huertas............-4.6
11) Larry Nance..................-4.9
12) Tarik Black....................-8.1

Surprised about Nance. BPM usually mirrors what I see on the court decently well, and generally does on this list aside from him.
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A Mad Chinaman
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:47 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Box Plus/Minus, 2015-16 Lakers, 11/12/15 (minimum 75 minutes played)

1) Metta World Peace.........+4.7
2) Roy Hibbert..................+2.2
3) Nick Young...................+0.9
4) Lou Williams..................-1.4
5) D'Angelo Russell.............-2.8
6) Jordan Clarkson..............-2.9
7) Ryan Kelly......................-3.5
8) Brandon Bass.................-3.9
9) Kobe Bryant...................-4.2
10) Marcelo Huertas............-4.6
11) Larry Nance..................-4.9
12) Tarik Black....................-8.1

Surprised about Nance. BPM usually mirrors what I see on the court decently well, and generally does on this list aside from him.
Nance's standing on the list is surprising. One would assume that it has been trending upwards

Maybe Swaggy's stats are going up because he is usually playing with Huertas who is giving accurate passes where he does not have to ISO a great deal
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 1:27 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Box Plus/Minus, 2015-16 Lakers, 11/12/15 (minimum 75 minutes played)

1) Metta World Peace.........+4.7
2) Roy Hibbert..................+2.2
3) Nick Young...................+0.9
4) Lou Williams..................-1.4
5) D'Angelo Russell.............-2.8
6) Jordan Clarkson..............-2.9
7) Ryan Kelly......................-3.5
8) Brandon Bass.................-3.9
9) Kobe Bryant...................-4.2
10) Marcelo Huertas............-4.6
11) Larry Nance..................-4.9
12) Tarik Black....................-8.1

Surprised about Nance. BPM usually mirrors what I see on the court decently well, and generally does on this list aside from him.


Three of the outliers (Ron, Nance and Black) might barely be at the minimum on the minutes played threshold and just one or two bad outings will have an enormous impact on their overall ratings - scores.

Those with a larger sample size (more minutes played) will have ratings - scores that are more True*.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 2:43 pm    Post subject:

Nance played 4 games: Nets, Knicks, Heat and Magic. He was:
+10 vs Nets
+6 vs Knicks
+4 vs Heat
0 vs Magic

So I don't know how they estimate their BPM thing...
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:50 pm    Post subject: Re: By the Numbers: 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers

GoldenThroat wrote:
Some notes from the T-Wolves game.

Offense By Play Type, PPP, Percentage of Overall Possessions Used

PnR Ball Handler...1.00 (23.5%)
Spot Up...............1.00 (14.3%)
Isolations............0.44 (13.4%)
Transition............0.75 (13.4%)
Post Up...............0.75 (6.7%)
Putbacks.............1.17 (5.0%)
Off Screen...........0.60 (4.2%)
PnR Big...............1.25 (3.4%)
Cut.....................0.50 (3.4%)
Handoff...............2.67 (2.5%)

Defense By Play Type, PPP, Percentage of Overall Possessions Used

PnR Ball Handler...1.06 (15.7%)
Spot Up...............0.71 (13.0%)
Isolation..............0.75 (11.1%)
Transition............1.55 (10.2%)
Off Screen...........1.18 (10.2%)
Post Up...............0.90 (9.3%)
PnR Big...............1.22 (8.3%)
Cut.....................1.33 (5.6%)
Handoff...............0.80 (4.6%)
Putbacks.............2.00 (2.8%)

What these numbers tell me is that we were even worse defensively than the final score indicated. We won't have many games this year where the other team gets 0.71 PPP on Spot Ups.

Other notes...

-The Lakers made 244 passes in the game, 29th in the league.

-The Lakers had 33 drives to the basket, 8th best in the league. Minnesota only had 19, tied for worst.

-The Lakers only passed the ball on 21.2% of our drives to the basket, 23rd best in the league.

-The Lakers only had 35 potential assists (shot off of a pass) in the game, 27th in the league.

-The Lakers only had 257 front court touches in the game, 29th in the league. Here is the breakdown of those touches.

Jordan Clarkson....48
Kobe Bryant.........34
D'Angelo Russell...31
Julius Randle........28
Lou Williams........26
Marcelo Huertas...25
Nick Young..........20
Roy Hibbert.........19
Ryan Kelly...........18
Brandon Bass........8

-Minnesota shot 64.7% on their shots around the rim. Hibbert surrendered 3 makes on the 4 shots around the rim with him contesting.


Curious about which basketball activities move this counter, "front court touch" ?

- a recovered loose ball in our front court ?
- a recovered blocked shot in our front court ?
- a pass received by a player in the front court, regardless of its origin ?
- an offensive rebound not returned for a shot ?
- a dunked rebound that is scored a field goal ?
- a Laker pass dropped out of bounds but tipped by a Laker ?
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:14 pm    Post subject: Re: By the Numbers: 2015-16 Los Angeles Lakers

Wilkes52 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Some notes from the T-Wolves game.

Offense By Play Type, PPP, Percentage of Overall Possessions Used

PnR Ball Handler...1.00 (23.5%)
Spot Up...............1.00 (14.3%)
Isolations............0.44 (13.4%)
Transition............0.75 (13.4%)
Post Up...............0.75 (6.7%)
Putbacks.............1.17 (5.0%)
Off Screen...........0.60 (4.2%)
PnR Big...............1.25 (3.4%)
Cut.....................0.50 (3.4%)
Handoff...............2.67 (2.5%)

Defense By Play Type, PPP, Percentage of Overall Possessions Used

PnR Ball Handler...1.06 (15.7%)
Spot Up...............0.71 (13.0%)
Isolation..............0.75 (11.1%)
Transition............1.55 (10.2%)
Off Screen...........1.18 (10.2%)
Post Up...............0.90 (9.3%)
PnR Big...............1.22 (8.3%)
Cut.....................1.33 (5.6%)
Handoff...............0.80 (4.6%)
Putbacks.............2.00 (2.8%)

What these numbers tell me is that we were even worse defensively than the final score indicated. We won't have many games this year where the other team gets 0.71 PPP on Spot Ups.

Other notes...

-The Lakers made 244 passes in the game, 29th in the league.

-The Lakers had 33 drives to the basket, 8th best in the league. Minnesota only had 19, tied for worst.

-The Lakers only passed the ball on 21.2% of our drives to the basket, 23rd best in the league.

-The Lakers only had 35 potential assists (shot off of a pass) in the game, 27th in the league.

-The Lakers only had 257 front court touches in the game, 29th in the league. Here is the breakdown of those touches.

Jordan Clarkson....48
Kobe Bryant.........34
D'Angelo Russell...31
Julius Randle........28
Lou Williams........26
Marcelo Huertas...25
Nick Young..........20
Roy Hibbert.........19
Ryan Kelly...........18
Brandon Bass........8

-Minnesota shot 64.7% on their shots around the rim. Hibbert surrendered 3 makes on the 4 shots around the rim with him contesting.


Curious about which basketball activities move this counter, "front court touch" ?

- a recovered loose ball in our front court ?
- a recovered blocked shot in our front court ?
- a pass received by a player in the front court, regardless of its origin ?
- an offensive rebound not returned for a shot ?
- a dunked rebound that is scored a field goal ?
- a Laker pass dropped out of bounds but tipped by a Laker ?


All but the bolded.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:05 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Box Plus/Minus, 2015-16 Lakers, 11/12/15 (minimum 75 minutes played)

1) Metta World Peace.........+4.7
2) Roy Hibbert..................+2.2
3) Nick Young...................+0.9
4) Lou Williams..................-1.4
5) D'Angelo Russell.............-2.8
6) Jordan Clarkson..............-2.9
7) Ryan Kelly......................-3.5
8) Brandon Bass.................-3.9
9) Kobe Bryant...................-4.2
10) Marcelo Huertas............-4.6
11) Larry Nance..................-4.9
12) Tarik Black....................-8.1

Surprised about Nance. BPM usually mirrors what I see on the court decently well, and generally does on this list aside from him.


Where is Randle?
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 15, 2015 1:39 pm    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
Where is Randle?


Whoops. Here's an updated BPM ranking, as of today.

1) Roy Hibbert............+2.3
2) Metta World Peace...+0.5
3) Nick Young.............+0.0
4) Jordan Clarkson.......-1.3
5) D'Angelo Russell.......-1.7
6) Lou Williams............-2.3
7) Brandon Bass...........-2.3
8) Julius Randle............-3.7
9) Kobe Bryant.............-3.9
10) Marcelo Huertas......-4.8
11) Larry Nance, Jr........-6.2
12) Tarik Black..............-8.2
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:05 pm    Post subject:

Interesting graphic: Shot distance vs EFG%

http://i.imgur.com/u4GP74s.png?1

Hopefully we see something different by December
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:49 pm    Post subject:

11 championship rings wrote:
Interesting graphic: Shot distance vs EFG%

http://i.imgur.com/u4GP74s.png?1

Hopefully we see something different by December


M goodness look at the warriors on that chart
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:34 pm    Post subject:

22 wrote:
11 championship rings wrote:
Interesting graphic: Shot distance vs EFG%

http://i.imgur.com/u4GP74s.png?1

Hopefully we see something different by December


M goodness look at the warriors on that chart


They are anomaly. That's why they are champs. ANd that's why no other team currently in the NBA can follow their style to the same results.
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Lakers depth chart

PG Johnson / Goodrich
SG Bryant / West / Scott
SF Baylor / Worthy / Cooper
PF Mikkelsen / Hairston / McAdoo / Gasol
C Chamberlain / Abdul-Jabbar / O'Neal / Mikan
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:36 pm    Post subject:

Afrosho wrote:
Nance played 4 games: Nets, Knicks, Heat and Magic. He was:
+10 vs Nets
+6 vs Knicks
+4 vs Heat
0 vs Magic

So I don't know how they estimate their BPM thing...


BPM is quite a different metric than the +/- stat you see in the box score.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html
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Lakers depth chart

PG Johnson / Goodrich
SG Bryant / West / Scott
SF Baylor / Worthy / Cooper
PF Mikkelsen / Hairston / McAdoo / Gasol
C Chamberlain / Abdul-Jabbar / O'Neal / Mikan
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:39 am    Post subject:

Simple PER: (not counting ABrown due to limited minutes)

1. Hibbert: 17.2
2. Young: 16.4
3. JC: 15.9
4. MWP: 14.9
5. Lou: 13.9
6. Bass: 13.9
7. DLO: 12.3
8. Kobe: 12.2
9. Huertas: 11.6
10. Randle: 10.8
11. Nance: 10.2
...
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:44 pm    Post subject:

League Rank, by Frequency, Offense

Transition...........13.0%....13th
Isolation.............10.8%.....2nd
PnR Ball Handler...22.7%.....1st
PnR Roll Man.........5.2%....28th
Post Up.................8.7%....10th
Spot Up...............13.6%....30th
Hand Off................4.8%....13th
Cut.......................4.7%....30th
Off Screen.............5.7%.....12th
Cutbacks...............5.2%.....20th

League Rank, by PPP, Offense

Transition..............0.92.......30th
Isolation................0.69.......29th
PnR Ball Handler.....0.83.........8th
PnR Roll Man..........1.12.........4th
Post Up..................0.69.......29th
Spot Up..................0.99........7th
Hand Off.................1.06........5th
Cut........................1.13.......23rd
Off Screen..............0.82.......26th
Cutbacks................1.04.......18th
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:48 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Simple PER: (not counting ABrown due to limited minutes)

1. Hibbert: 17.2
2. Young: 16.4
3. JC: 15.9
4. MWP: 14.9
5. Lou: 13.9
6. Bass: 13.9
7. DLO: 12.3
8. Kobe: 12.2
9. Huertas: 11.6
10. Randle: 10.8
11. Nance: 10.2
...


By BPM, by PER and by convention FG% where we are severely lacking, Nick is one of our best players and HE'S the guy getting benched?
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:13 pm    Post subject:

Byron is riding a bottom 3 offense and defense now, a big progress from last season

offense 28th Offrtg: 96.5
defense 29th Defrtg: 107.2
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:08 pm    Post subject:

Honeybadger81 wrote:
Byron is riding a bottom 3 offense and defense now, a big progress from last season

offense 28th Offrtg: 96.5
defense 29th Defrtg: 107.2


The defense I can understand with the personnel but the offense is inexcusable. We have talent on offense
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:16 pm    Post subject:

Any guru here who can explain why is Randle so low on PER
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