RPM is out. Kobe is the worst starting small forward in the league
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:05 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
driver wrote:
Dude, Roy is top10, that's pretty good. But not good enough to overcome Bass playing in the 4th.


His RPM is likely boosted by Bass being his backup.


Wow, I did not know RPM doesn't even try to correct for substitution patterns. Also, it apparently uses some Bayesian priors so Roy's #s are probably inflated by rep.


I'm sure it looks at the same teammates and opponents in there with Roy (on court net rtg -11.0) versus with the Bass (-17.9), Nance (-16.3) lineups, and gives him credit for a chunk of the difference.


I suppose. Ideally, though, it would recognize that Bass is poor defensively (out-of-position anyways) and thus "not be as impressed" so to speak by Hibbert's improvement. But given Bass is a positive defender here... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I never did like RAPM much anyways. With no mention of the tuning for the Bayesian priors I have no reason to believe they set the parameters optimizing for predictive power. While it will always have some value as a regularized plus/ minus stat (no way to make Kobe look good on either, for example), the parameters can be arbitrarily set to promote any agenda you want (and it's ESPN, so...). And you don't even need to have an agenda; how do you optimize the priors for rookies?

If it doesn't account reasonably well for who your backup is (I remember reading an article that had the same conclusion), then that's the stat's final nail in the coffin for me
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:09 am    Post subject:

Got me confused there. You said Russell and Clarkson rank 66 and 73 respectively. According to the link Russell is 73 and Clarkson is 66. Semantics shemantics, moot point since their still towards the bottom of the list.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:18 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


Yet, players on the same team, that often play together, have different RPMs.

Do you really need stats to tell you Kobe is playing like one of the worst players in the league?

Does anyone know if he is the only starter or player in the association averaging more Field Goal Attempts per game than actual Points per game?


Been biting my tongue for a long time, trying to be nice...it's tough.

Kobe Bryant on a good team would not be at this RPM. He wouldn't be quite vintage Kobe from 10 years ago, but he'd be much better than this with a proven system where he's in spots to be successful. When he's successful like that everyone else benefits.

Once again, if the system were effective and players were utilizing it effectively, you'd see Randle, Clarkson, Russell, Hibbert and Kobe all benefit, especially Kobe at his age because he needs to be operating around the painted area.

Stats don't tell you the whole story, therefore they need to be taken with a grain of salt in situations like this where the coaching staff can't produce an effective strategy for a team that is clearly more talented than last year to outperform last year's team. On paper we're on track to be significantly worse based purely on record. Does that mean that the players aren't as good as last year? No. It means the coaching staff sucks and the pieces don't fit, so everyone suffers and a player like Kobe gets put in situations where he's hoisting bail out 3s and trying to make something happen in a stagnant offense. The teams only answer is "Man up" and if that doesn't work then it's "hand down MAN DOWN" and if THAT doesn't work it's "guys gonna get punished with sum old school drills cuz I don't know what I'm doing but HEY, my nick is Blockbusterrrrrr!"

So stop the bs anti Kobe (bleep) and call it what it is - a collective Thanksgiving food poisoning collosal dump in front of Jack Nicholson.

Kobe is the least of the problems, though he'd be getting called Vino if in a better system I guarantee you that.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:19 am    Post subject:

Hibbert leads our team in win shares, we have a top 10 center in the league and he barely plays in the 4th quarter, I still don't understand it. A lot of our guys are playing out of position including Clarkson, Russell, Kobe, Lou, and Bass. This team is a mess.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:21 am    Post subject:

I don't think they guys that are saying that Kobe would have a good RPM if he weren't on the Lakers understand the stat... The most damning stat for Kobe is the WAR (win above regular) where he is last also. This one actually tells you how much of the wins can be attributed to a player... Kobe has been the worse SF in the league at impacting wins. He's 400th out of 409 overall. Our best WAR player is Hibbert, which isn't surprising tbh. He's in the 40s out of 409.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:45 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
tox wrote:
fiendishoc wrote:
driver wrote:
Dude, Roy is top10, that's pretty good. But not good enough to overcome Bass playing in the 4th.


His RPM is likely boosted by Bass being his backup.


Wow, I did not know RPM doesn't even try to correct for substitution patterns. Also, it apparently uses some Bayesian priors so Roy's #s are probably inflated by rep.


I'm sure it looks at the same teammates and opponents in there with Roy (on court net rtg -11.0) versus with the Bass (-17.9), Nance (-16.3) lineups, and gives him credit for a chunk of the difference.


I suppose. Ideally, though, it would recognize that Bass is poor defensively (out-of-position anyways) and thus "not be as impressed" so to speak by Hibbert's improvement. But given Bass is a positive defender here... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I never did like RAPM much anyways. With no mention of the tuning for the Bayesian priors I have no reason to believe they set the parameters optimizing for predictive power. While it will always have some value as a regularized plus/ minus stat (no way to make Kobe look good on either, for example), the parameters can be arbitrarily set to promote any agenda you want (and it's ESPN, so...). And you don't even need to have an agenda; how do you optimize the priors for rookies?

If it doesn't account reasonably well for who your backup is (I remember reading an article that had the same conclusion), then that's the stat's final nail in the coffin for me


I've seen people use a constant value for the priors for all rookies, which I'm sure you'll agree is less than ideal. There are so many moving parts in these things and we don't even know if ESPN has inserted box score derived inputs as well, so it's not worth going into these rankings in any sort of depths unless they release their methodology.

What's its good for, at least for the general public, is some top level sorting to look across the league for hidden gems, like Middleton from last year. From there, you can then drill into the details of the lineup data, which will always give more context than these one or two numbers.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:49 am    Post subject:

Lakers currently have the 2nd to the worst record in the entire NBA, is this team actually worse than last year? .... very sad.... ... as of today this is what the record says....
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:07 am    Post subject:

One spot ahead of Bruno Caboclo? Damn.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:47 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


Yet, players on the same team, that often play together, have different RPMs.

Do you really need stats to tell you Kobe is playing like one of the worst players in the league?

Does anyone know if he is the only starter or player in the association averaging more Field Goal Attempts per game than actual Points per game?


Why don't you look it up yourself instead of asking so many questions
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:24 am    Post subject:

Andre2K wrote:
Hibbert leads our team in win shares, we have a top 10 center in the league and he barely plays in the 4th quarter, I still don't understand it. A lot of our guys are playing out of position including Clarkson, Russell, Kobe, Lou, and Bass. This team is a mess.


It's simple to understand. Our coach is a moron.
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KobeForThree....
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:52 am    Post subject:

Seriously? Lock this thread immediately.

What a joke.

A bad joke.

A terrible one.

Horrible.

I want to smash my p00ter
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:18 am    Post subject:

KobeForThree.... wrote:
Seriously? Lock this thread immediately.

What a joke.

A bad joke.

A terrible one.

Horrible.

I want to smash my p00ter


So you just joined and you ask for people to be banned and thread to be locked ? Are you a previously banned user yourself ?
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:26 am    Post subject:

zePokar wrote:
KobeForThree.... wrote:
Seriously? Lock this thread immediately.

What a joke.

A bad joke.

A terrible one.

Horrible.

I want to smash my p00ter


So you just joined and you ask for people to be banned and thread to be locked ? Are you a previously banned user yourself ?


Let Kobe alone, he is a legend, top 3 SG ever.

Kobe, welcome to LG
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:14 am    Post subject:

ReaListik wrote:
Been biting my tongue for a long time, trying to be nice...it's tough.

Kobe Bryant on a good team would not be at this RPM. He wouldn't be quite vintage Kobe from 10 years ago, but he'd be much better than this with a proven system where he's in spots to be successful. When he's successful like that everyone else benefits.

Once again, if the system were effective and players were utilizing it effectively, you'd see Randle, Clarkson, Russell, Hibbert and Kobe all benefit, especially Kobe at his age because he needs to be operating around the painted area.

Stats don't tell you the whole story, therefore they need to be taken with a grain of salt in situations like this where the coaching staff can't produce an effective strategy for a team that is clearly more talented than last year to outperform last year's team. On paper we're on track to be significantly worse based purely on record. Does that mean that the players aren't as good as last year? No. It means the coaching staff sucks and the pieces don't fit, so everyone suffers and a player like Kobe gets put in situations where he's hoisting bail out 3s and trying to make something happen in a stagnant offense. The teams only answer is "Man up" and if that doesn't work then it's "hand down MAN DOWN" and if THAT doesn't work it's "guys gonna get punished with sum old school drills cuz I don't know what I'm doing but HEY, my nick is Blockbusterrrrrr!"

So stop the bs anti Kobe (bleep) and call it what it is - a collective Thanksgiving food poisoning collosal dump in front of Jack Nicholson.

Kobe is the least of the problems, though he'd be getting called Vino if in a better system I guarantee you that.


Some interesting points. I certainly think it is possible that on a better team, Kobe's RPM would be better. But it's not necessarily so. Plenty of players on good teams with poor RPM and players on poor teams with fantastic RPM. There are players on .500 teams in the top 5 of RPM, players on teams much worse than .500 in the RPM top 10, and even Harden has one of the top RPM but is playing on a .333 team. Metta World Peace is 12th in RPM among SFs but perhaps MWP is playing in a great system ... or something?

Unfortunately, I can't buy your system theory as it relates to Kobe. As hard as I've been on Kobe, I think he's been a much better player than what you're asserting. If what you're saying is true, that, in a different system Kobe would be "much better" but in this system he is statistically among the worst in the association, that would basically be the definition of a system dependent player. While there is a school of thought that Kobe isn't quite as good as advertised but simply a by-product of a particular system (triangle), I personally don't buy in to that.

Of course, all players to a degree rely on their system for success. But system dependent players see massive swings in success depending on the system they play in. It explains why some guys in the past could come here, play in the tri and thrive while others languished. I suppose there is evidence to back that up. For instance, in a 20 year career, Kobe has never won a 2nd round playoff game not playing in the triangle. Put him in the triangle and he's winning rings or at least getting to the finals the majority of the time. That is a pretty big discrepancy though I believe there are other factors at play.

Stats don't tell you the whole story, you're right. But stats do tell you part of the story. And for me, it makes a lot more sense to conclude he is playing like one of the worst players in the league because he is old (37), got a lot of mileage (over 50K minutes) and is limited by the effects of the achilles tear than it is to conclude that the difference between Kobe being an efficient vs inefficient player is dependent entirely on what system he plays in. He's much better than that IMO.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:33 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Harden has one of the top RPM but is playing on a .333 team


They are likely using last season's data as a Bayesian prior.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:42 am    Post subject:

SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

:lol: Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


You sound almost exactly like Jim Buss when he tried to discuss analytics. I'm not sure you actually understand what the numbers are measuring. Also, the notion that statistics don't indicate how the quality of a player is absurd to the nth degree. So the fact that Steph Curry drops 40 points on 50+% shooting (using box score data here, not even "advanced" statistics) doesn't indicate that he's good. And if another player were to shoot 1-28 in the same game, that doesn't indicate that he is bad, or had a really, really, really bad game? How does that make any sense in your brain?
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:51 am    Post subject:

fiendishoc wrote:
Quote:
Harden has one of the top RPM but is playing on a .333 team


They are likely using last season's data as a Bayesian prior.


Possibly. But even if it were, it doesn't seem to play much of a factor at least not enough to significantly shift one's placement among his peers.

Hibbert was 27th last season among centers. This season he is 10th.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:37 am    Post subject:

RG73 wrote:
SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


You sound almost exactly like Jim Buss when he tried to discuss analytics. I'm not sure you actually understand what the numbers are measuring. Also, the notion that statistics don't indicate how the quality of a player is absurd to the nth degree. So the fact that Steph Curry drops 40 points on 50+% shooting (using box score data here, not even "advanced" statistics) doesn't indicate that he's good. And if another player were to shoot 1-28 in the same game, that doesn't indicate that he is bad, or had a really, really, really bad game? How does that make any sense in your brain?


I mean this is the same dude that said Kobe was still the best player in the league two MONTHS ago. Take it with a wheel barrow of salt.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:08 am    Post subject:

I don't think we need advanced stats to know that Kobe is mightily struggling. It is what it is.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:26 am    Post subject:

ReaListik wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


Yet, players on the same team, that often play together, have different RPMs.

Do you really need stats to tell you Kobe is playing like one of the worst players in the league?

Does anyone know if he is the only starter or player in the association averaging more Field Goal Attempts per game than actual Points per game?


Been biting my tongue for a long time, trying to be nice...it's tough.

Kobe Bryant on a good team would not be at this RPM. He wouldn't be quite vintage Kobe from 10 years ago, but he'd be much better than this with a proven system where he's in spots to be successful. When he's successful like that everyone else benefits.

Once again, if the system were effective and players were utilizing it effectively, you'd see Randle, Clarkson, Russell, Hibbert and Kobe all benefit, especially Kobe at his age because he needs to be operating around the painted area.

Stats don't tell you the whole story, therefore they need to be taken with a grain of salt in situations like this where the coaching staff can't produce an effective strategy for a team that is clearly more talented than last year to outperform last year's team. On paper we're on track to be significantly worse based purely on record. Does that mean that the players aren't as good as last year? No. It means the coaching staff sucks and the pieces don't fit, so everyone suffers and a player like Kobe gets put in situations where he's hoisting bail out 3s and trying to make something happen in a stagnant offense. The teams only answer is "Man up" and if that doesn't work then it's "hand down MAN DOWN" and if THAT doesn't work it's "guys gonna get punished with sum old school drills cuz I don't know what I'm doing but HEY, my nick is Blockbusterrrrrr!"

So stop the bs anti Kobe (bleep) and call it what it is - a collective Thanksgiving food poisoning collosal dump in front of Jack Nicholson.

Kobe is the least of the problems, though he'd be getting called Vino if in a better system I guarantee you that.


Kobe is going to do what he's going to do. We heard we would see a much different Kobe this year but we haven't. The only change is he has become much more reliant on three pointers. Do we really blame the system for that? Kobe gets a lot of touches in the sweet spots. He is getting his bread and butter isolation plays. The difference between now and 5 years ago is he isn't making those shots and when his shots are off, the offense looks horrible, just like it did in the triangle days.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:49 am    Post subject:

Treble Clef wrote:
ReaListik wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
SuperboyReformed wrote:
Worthy42 wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/RPM/position/9

Jesus...

But with the Lakers situation its no surprise the results. There's no ball movement and we're pined with a heavy dose of ISO ladened guys. Until coaching forces some changes or instills A SYSTEM... nothing will change.

this is the truth.
the problem with stats in basketball is that it doesn't explain anything. of all the major pro sports, stats is the LEAST useful in basketball for this purpose.

the stats don't indicate how good or bad the players are. it's just saying that the team is playing awful. you put 98 mj on this team, and it's still going to be basically the same. you drop this old kobe on a good team, and he'll be fine.

stats aside, the truth is the plays just look dumb. and then you think maybe they're working on it. so you watch the next game and you don't see a change or a difference, still dumb. so that's the problem. why can't we see a plan, from the fan's perspective?


Yet, players on the same team, that often play together, have different RPMs.

Do you really need stats to tell you Kobe is playing like one of the worst players in the league?

Does anyone know if he is the only starter or player in the association averaging more Field Goal Attempts per game than actual Points per game?


Been biting my tongue for a long time, trying to be nice...it's tough.

Kobe Bryant on a good team would not be at this RPM. He wouldn't be quite vintage Kobe from 10 years ago, but he'd be much better than this with a proven system where he's in spots to be successful. When he's successful like that everyone else benefits.

Once again, if the system were effective and players were utilizing it effectively, you'd see Randle, Clarkson, Russell, Hibbert and Kobe all benefit, especially Kobe at his age because he needs to be operating around the painted area.

Stats don't tell you the whole story, therefore they need to be taken with a grain of salt in situations like this where the coaching staff can't produce an effective strategy for a team that is clearly more talented than last year to outperform last year's team. On paper we're on track to be significantly worse based purely on record. Does that mean that the players aren't as good as last year? No. It means the coaching staff sucks and the pieces don't fit, so everyone suffers and a player like Kobe gets put in situations where he's hoisting bail out 3s and trying to make something happen in a stagnant offense. The teams only answer is "Man up" and if that doesn't work then it's "hand down MAN DOWN" and if THAT doesn't work it's "guys gonna get punished with sum old school drills cuz I don't know what I'm doing but HEY, my nick is Blockbusterrrrrr!"

So stop the bs anti Kobe (bleep) and call it what it is - a collective Thanksgiving food poisoning collosal dump in front of Jack Nicholson.

Kobe is the least of the problems, though he'd be getting called Vino if in a better system I guarantee you that.


Kobe is going to do what he's going to do. We heard we would see a much different Kobe this year but we haven't. The only change is he has become much more reliant on three pointers. Do we really blame the system for that? Kobe gets a lot of touches in the sweet spots. He is getting his bread and butter isolation plays. The difference between now and 5 years ago is he isn't making those shots and when his shots are off, the offense looks horrible, just like it did in the triangle days.


Yup, and Kobe can't change who he is now. He has too many bad habits and now they are painfully obvious. All the gambling on defense and taking plays off on that end combined with the one man show mentality on offense for 20 years is being exposed. Paul pierce was right.

I don't think Kobe is the only thing wrong with this team, we would probably suck no matter what but he's not helping. At all...the sad thing is that the only thing he's teaching the young players is how not to play this game.

What Kobe did in his career is flat out amazing because you're not supposed to be able to be successful playing that style of basketball. He did everything the wrong way and still couldn't be stopped. He's a once in a lifetime talent and I appreciate everything he's done but he's the last person I would want mentoring my rookies....unless it's how he prepares for the game, and his work ethic. Everything he does on court should be example of what not to do...let's face it not many people have the talent to pull it off anyway
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G_DawgLA
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:08 am    Post subject:

I got blasted for saying Randle is in danger of a D League/Overseas career. The eye test and numbers don't lie. Ugly to watch a 6'8 guy with alligator arms try to play bully ball in the league.
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PICKnPOP
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:13 am    Post subject:

G_DawgLA wrote:
I got blasted for saying Randle is in danger of a D League/Overseas career. The eye test and numbers don't lie. Ugly to watch a 6'8 guy with alligator arms try to play bully ball in the league.



Unless he learns how to play a 2-man game with Russell he won't be in the lakers future plans.
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fiendishoc
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:21 am    Post subject:

This thread went south in a hurry...
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lkjhf
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:24 am    Post subject:

G_DawgLA wrote:
I got blasted for saying Randle is in danger of a D League/Overseas career. The eye test and numbers don't lie. Ugly to watch a 6'8 guy with alligator arms try to play bully ball in the league.


i think D league/overseas might be pushing it since he's still a good rebounder and has a few abilities, so i'll wait until he's in an environment with an actual decent coach/gameplan before i decide if he's too thickheaded to make it. the under-the-rim chucking and clanking continues with him tho. frustrating. not expecting him to be black griffin(edit: i meant blake but this sounds good) but his first step and run-and-jump athleticism is too good to settle for such weak shots
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