2017 Lakers Draft Discussion Thread (**Lakers Receive Pick #28 from Houston**)
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Yong
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:51 pm    Post subject:

Fultz Tatum Ball now for me
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:53 pm    Post subject:

Quote:

If he doesn't do it enough to your liking that's one thing. But it's not like he struggles with it either.


No. He's efficient when he gets the shots there, yet purposely chooses to settle for 3pt shooting a vast majority of the time for scoring. I do question his ability to get to the rim. One change of direction. Straight line drive. Rare spin moves. Rare change of direction upon 2nd defender. Opts for early option in PnR. The strategy for beating UCLA hasn't even changed between teams. It's just about who can best execute it.

Quote:
But using his free throw percentage to correlate with the worry his shot won't translate when his jumper he's fixed his form on I don't understand


Players that shoot well from the FT line tend to be able to shoot beyond 15' effectively. Bruce Bowen is the only exception that I've seen in roughly 20-30 years of basketball. That's not an exaggeration.

I mean, just look at Karl Malone, Chris Webber, and Blake Griffin. Forms had to change. FT% went up. At prime, they were able to shoot 20' effectively. Griffin actually shot 40% on very low attempts just 3 years ago.

If you want to push 85% FT shooting and horrid 3pt. shooting, just look at Michael Jordan's career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html

Quote:
It was glaringly obvious then, and it continues to be at the college level.


I stopped relying on HS handle translating to next level after I watched Dante Exum's advanced handles in FIBA play have ZERO translation to the NBA level. Even Jodie Meeks' straight line slashing from Kentucky didn't translate into NBA speed until what, 5 years into the league? How's Redick's driving ability now? Because at Duke, his FTr was between 40% to 42% attacking closeouts and straight line slashing too.

Quote:
That's really my only true problem there.


Name 37% 3pt shooters that shoot below 60% from the FT line. Can't use Bruce Bowen.

But if I flip the argument and ask to find 75% FT shooters that improved to over 37% for at least one year, it's a lot easier.
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Top 3 Pick: Fultz, Tatum, Ball

New #28 since all my guys jumped up:
Semi Ojeleye
TJ Leaf
Josh Hart
Ike Anigbogu
Aaron Holiday
Wesley Iwundu
Aleksandar Vezenkov
Bam Adebayo

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adkindo
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:04 pm    Post subject:

LG'ers in this thread overreact to single performances, both good and bad.
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adkindo's Top 3: #1 Jackson, #2 Fultz, #3 Tatum, #4 Isaac
@28: PJ Dozier, Sindarius Thornwell, Harry Giles, Devin Robinson, Wesley Iwundu, Monte Morris
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:05 pm    Post subject:

Fultz is back in the lineup tonight...tip in a few minutes on FS1.
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adkindo's Top 3: #1 Jackson, #2 Fultz, #3 Tatum, #4 Isaac
@28: PJ Dozier, Sindarius Thornwell, Harry Giles, Devin Robinson, Wesley Iwundu, Monte Morris
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MJST
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:15 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:

If he doesn't do it enough to your liking that's one thing. But it's not like he struggles with it either.


No. He's efficient when he gets the shots there, yet purposely chooses to settle for 3pt shooting a vast majority of the time for scoring. I do question his ability to get to the rim. One change of direction. Straight line drive. Rare spin moves. Rare change of direction upon 2nd defender. Opts for early option in PnR. The strategy for beating UCLA hasn't even changed between teams. It's just about who can best execute it.



Correct me if I'm wrong but Lonzo's made more 2 pointers than 3 pointers this year hasn't he? It's not like all he does is camp at the 3 point line. Also Lonzo has shown me enough to show that he'll get to the basket just fine at the next level and yes he has a handle enough to do it, and as I particularly fancy him at the 2 position I see it even more so. Because I see him as a 2 at the next level.


Mike@LG wrote:

Quote:
But using his free throw percentage to correlate with the worry his shot won't translate when his jumper he's fixed his form on I don't understand


Players that shoot well from the FT line tend to be able to shoot beyond 15' effectively. Bruce Bowen is the only exception that I've seen in roughly 20-30 years of basketball. That's not an exaggeration.

I mean, just look at Karl Malone, Chris Webber, and Blake Griffin. Forms had to change. FT% went up. At prime, they were able to shoot 20' effectively. Griffin actually shot 40% on very low attempts just 3 years ago.


And Jackson's form on his jumper HAS changed, so couldn't you make the exact same argument that his free throw shot is going to follow? Took CWebb a few years but even during that time his jumper was still money from mid and in those seasons from three. But yes his free throw percentage followed, because of the changed form and consistency with the form of his jumper and his free throw being the same, and through repetition. And you can make the exact same argument as to why it'd come around for Jackson.

Jackson has improved his jumper more in half a season of college than he did in 4 years of high school. So there's something to think about when it comes to working on things like that. So the argument can be made that his free throw percentage will follow, even if it just gets to 74-75%.

Mike@LG wrote:

If you want to push 85% FT shooting and horrid 3pt. shooting, just look at Michael Jordan's career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html


I have, which is why I mentioned him, Kobe, and Derozan, as the most recognizable names where their great free throw percentage didn't mean they were great three point shooters. You'll find plenty of those as well.

Mike@LG wrote:

Quote:
It was glaringly obvious then, and it continues to be at the college level.


I stopped relying on HS handle translating to next level after I watched Dante Exum's advanced handles in FIBA play have ZERO translation to the NBA level. Even Jodie Meeks' straight line slashing from Kentucky didn't translate into NBA speed until what, 5 years into the league? How's Redick's driving ability now? Because at Duke, his FTr was between 40% to 42% attacking closeouts and straight line slashing too.


I looked more at the basics in how he did it, where he attacked from and how he handled with the dribble and saw stuff that was instantly translatable once he caught up to the speed of the game.

With Exum his problem was also obvious when he got to NBA speed, HE could move as fast as he showed, but bringing the ball with him was the problem. Now 3 seasons in he's catching up to NBA speed and what's been happening? That handle has started working and that speed has started translating because he can now accelerate WITH the ball at NBA speed, when that was a problem his rookie year.


Mike@LG wrote:

Quote:
That's really my only true problem there.


Name 37% 3pt shooters that shoot below 60% from the FT line. Can't use Bruce Bowen.

But if I flip the argument and ask to find 75% FT shooters that improved to over 37% for at least one year, it's a lot easier.


here

MJST wrote:


Jason Kidd didn't find his jumper OR three point shot till 4-5 years into his career.

Shane Battier was a 74% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter

Jason Richardson shot 77-78% from the free throw line but career wise only 32% from three.

Chandler Parsons a 71% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter.

Sasha Pavlovic had multiple seasons where he shot great from three and bad from the free throw, even one season where he shot 40% from the three point line and 40ish% from the free throw line

Chris Webber had seasons where he shot over or at 40% from three and had a free throw percentage in the 50s...



And again as you said and liked to use in your example, that when they did it(as far as Webber goes), it was indicative of them then making improvements in their form which translated over to their free throw shooting. Couldn't you say the exact same thing for Jackson in terms of the path he's on with improving his jumper if that's what we're going with here?


Regardless of what comes first, Jackson's once broken jumpshot form has changed more in half a season than it ever did in 4 years of high school. That form change is what made his jumper successful thus far and what's caused his percentages to go up. That form being adapted into his free throw shooting(which still has a hitch to it) is going to be what he'll have to do going forward.

I don't doubt he's going to. I thought the kid would never have his jumper till maybe midway through his 2nd NBA season The fact he's done it halfway through his Kansas career bodes well for him fixing the other problems.

As far as Tatum goes it wasn't just his handle that I felt was ahead of Ingram's in high school compared to Ingram in college, but his post game too and when I saw the footwork he had at that age even in high school I knew it would translate. Or at least had faith it would.
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Yong
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:22 pm    Post subject:

I am happy to draft Tatum and play 1 of Ingram or him at SG
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dcarter4kobe
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:20 pm    Post subject:

Fultz/Tatum/Jackson is still my top 3. Still don't know who is 2 between Jacksom/Tatum. Put those 2 together & it's the perfect player lol
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:51 pm    Post subject:

Top 5 from what I've seen would be

Markelle Fultz
Lonzo Ball
Jayson Tatum / Josh Jackson
Jonathan Issac
Malik Monk
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:08 pm    Post subject:

I think if more people saw tape on Justin Patton, they would have him on their top 5-7 list also
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 pm    Post subject:

http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-t-j-mcconnell/

this like a damn novel. about why tj mcconnell is special/unique and why his chain reaction passing is like lonzo's

interesting point

"Lonzo Ballís FTr is actually good after adjusting for a near 60% 3PAr"
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KeepItRealOrElse
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:17 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
I think if more people saw tape on Justin Patton, they would have him on their top 5-7 list also


Not mad at it.
I got him in the 7 range. 7-9 for me
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:49 pm    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
Top 5 from what I've seen would be

Markelle Fultz
Lonzo Ball
Jayson Tatum / Josh Jackson
Jonathan Issac
Malik Monk

I'm fairly sure that's a top-6
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KendrickLamar
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:42 am    Post subject:

Man just imagine closing out games with potentially lineups of

Russell
Clarkson
Ingram
Tatum (If not Tatum then Ingram here and Jackson at the 3)
Randle/Nance

or even

Fultz/Ball
Russell
Ingram
Randle
Nance



which one do you guys prefer? me personally i like the tatum lineup the most
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:01 am    Post subject:

Wow, Tatum is getting a lot of love in here. Surprising. I don't like his game, doesn't look like a top tier prospect to me.. I question how much he will be able to offer in the NBA aside from ISO scoring. He's got great footwork, nice pull up jumper, some skills offensive moves, and an aesthetically pleasing offensive game but I haven't seen much else from him.. Not a creator, defense is meh, doesn't move great without the ball, passes when he must but looks like a last resort for him, good athlete, not great, shot selection is iffy. I wouldn't take him top 3, that's for sure. To me, the top 3 are essentially a lock between Jackson, fultz, and ball in no order with Isaac being the dark horse and outside chance at top 3. Tatum is in the tier with monk, and smith imo and shouldn't garner any real attention with our top 3 pick if we keep it.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:42 am    Post subject:

ratra_1211 wrote:
tox wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
https://youtu.be/mGyOvNjUr_Y?t=8m39s Giannis on The Jump today. Showing his hands, really, really not human.
Nichol's goes on to say how earlier in Jordan's GM days he got obsessed with who could and couldn't palm the ball. "He found out too late that Kwame couldn't". hahah
What the (bleep).
As a pianist, I'd kill to have hands that large.

Although maybe they'd look a little weird on a 5'9 guy


5'9, unite!

"Actually 5'8 but say you're 5'9" 5'9 or 5'9?
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 6:50 am    Post subject:

lkjhf wrote:
http://www.deepishthoughts.com/kaisers-draft-notes-t-j-mcconnell/

this like a damn novel. about why tj mcconnell is special/unique and why his chain reaction passing is like lonzo's

interesting point

"Lonzo Ballís FTr is actually good after adjusting for a near 60% 3PAr"

I hate McConnell's face too much to make it through Kaiser going Gay Talese on that punk's potential assist making, but thank the lord for 'ctrl+f'.

Lindeman always has some thought-provoking draft pieces and he's worth a follow.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:19 am    Post subject:

ratra_1211 wrote:
tox wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
https://youtu.be/mGyOvNjUr_Y?t=8m39s Giannis on The Jump today. Showing his hands, really, really not human.
Nichol's goes on to say how earlier in Jordan's GM days he got obsessed with who could and couldn't palm the ball. "He found out too late that Kwame couldn't". hahah
What the (bleep).
As a pianist, I'd kill to have hands that large.

Although maybe they'd look a little weird on a 5'9 guy


5'9, unite!


Pianists, unite!
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:20 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
ratra_1211 wrote:
tox wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
https://youtu.be/mGyOvNjUr_Y?t=8m39s Giannis on The Jump today. Showing his hands, really, really not human.
Nichol's goes on to say how earlier in Jordan's GM days he got obsessed with who could and couldn't palm the ball. "He found out too late that Kwame couldn't". hahah
What the (bleep).
As a pianist, I'd kill to have hands that large.

Although maybe they'd look a little weird on a 5'9 guy


5'9, unite!


Pianists, unite!


Wait, I've been playing the keys since I was 3...unite! (but I like playing the bass more...unite!).
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MJST
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:44 am    Post subject:

Fultz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoCIrJ_J9AI


Looking more like a 2 at the next level. Which I think he'd excel at, actually have potential to be one of the best in the league at the 2.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
Fultz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoCIrJ_J9AI


Looking more like a 2 at the next level. Which I think he'd excel at, actually have potential to be one of the best in the league at the 2.


You keep pushing this idea that fultz is a 2, and then say that this highlight vid supports that, yet i watch the video and see no reason for that. i gotta ask what you're seeing that makes you think he should be a 2. have you seen what harden and westbrook do? are they 1s or 2s?
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2019
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:10 am    Post subject:

DangeRuss wrote:
Wow, Tatum is getting a lot of love in here. Surprising. I don't like his game, doesn't look like a top tier prospect to me.. I question how much he will be able to offer in the NBA aside from ISO scoring. He's got great footwork, nice pull up jumper, some skills offensive moves, and an aesthetically pleasing offensive game but I haven't seen much else from him.. Not a creator, defense is meh, doesn't move great without the ball, passes when he must but looks like a last resort for him, good athlete, not great, shot selection is iffy. I wouldn't take him top 3, that's for sure. To me, the top 3 are essentially a lock between Jackson, fultz, and ball in no order with Isaac being the dark horse and outside chance at top 3. Tatum is in the tier with monk, and smith imo and shouldn't garner any real attention with our top 3 pick if we keep it.


I agree with all this.

Fultz is #1 but after that, I think it's relatively wide open. Ball probably ends up #2 or 3 with Jackson also in the top 3. Personally, I LOVE Isaac's game and his fit is perfect. Could be a franchise changing talent like Porzingis with that size/ length and skill set, or he could be a more defensive version of Rashard Lewis.

Id we're at #3, I'd give him serious consideration at #3 and maybe even #2.

Zu
Randle/Nance
Isaac
Ingram/JC
Russell



Fultz
Ball/Isaac/Jackson
Isaac/Jackson
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:13 am    Post subject:

2019 wrote:
DangeRuss wrote:
Wow, Tatum is getting a lot of love in here. Surprising. I don't like his game, doesn't look like a top tier prospect to me.. I question how much he will be able to offer in the NBA aside from ISO scoring. He's got great footwork, nice pull up jumper, some skills offensive moves, and an aesthetically pleasing offensive game but I haven't seen much else from him.. Not a creator, defense is meh, doesn't move great without the ball, passes when he must but looks like a last resort for him, good athlete, not great, shot selection is iffy. I wouldn't take him top 3, that's for sure. To me, the top 3 are essentially a lock between Jackson, fultz, and ball in no order with Isaac being the dark horse and outside chance at top 3. Tatum is in the tier with monk, and smith imo and shouldn't garner any real attention with our top 3 pick if we keep it.


I agree with all this.

Fultz is #1 but after that, I think it's relatively wide open. Ball probably ends up #2 or 3 with Jackson also in the top 3. Personally, I LOVE Isaac's game and his fit is perfect. Could be a franchise changing talent like Porzingis with that size/ length and skill set, or he could be a more defensive version of Rashard Lewis.

Id we're at #3, I'd give him serious consideration at #3 and maybe even #2.

Zu
Randle/Nance
Isaac
Ingram/JC
Russell



Fultz
Ball/Isaac/Jackson
Isaac/Jackson


You've seen what the Knicks have been up to this year, right?
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject:

Quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong but Lonzo's made more 2 pointers than 3 pointers this year hasn't he?


Nope. 10 shots a game. 4.3 from 2point range. 5.7 from 3pt. range.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/lonzo-ball-1.html

Quote:

And Jackson's form on his jumper HAS changed


And like I've said, I've already acknowledged that long ago. the difference is, Tatum is already 85%Ft. It's not like JJ is already 42% 3pt.

Quote:

I have, which is why I mentioned him, Kobe, and Derozan, as the most recognizable names where their great free throw percentage didn't mean they were great three point shooters. You'll find plenty of those as well.


Kobe once held a 3pt record for consecutive makes. I absolutely have no trouble with a 35% 3pt shooter but can get occasional fire. Definitely exceptions to the rule.

Quote:
With Exum his problem was also obvious when he got to NBA speed, HE could move as fast as he showed, but bringing the ball with him was the problem. Now 3 seasons in he's catching up to NBA speed and what's been happening? That handle has started working and that speed has started translating because he can now accelerate WITH the ball at NBA speed, when that was a problem his rookie year.


HS speed doesn't always translate to NCAA speed.

Quote:


Jason Kidd didn't find his jumper OR three point shot till 4-5 years into his career.

Shane Battier was a 74% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter

Jason Richardson shot 77-78% from the free throw line but career wise only 32% from three.

Chandler Parsons a 71% free throw shooter but a 38% three point shooter.

Sasha Pavlovic had multiple seasons where he shot great from three and bad from the free throw, even one season where he shot 40% from the three point line and 40ish% from the free throw line

Chris Webber had seasons where he shot over or at 40% from three and had a free throw percentage in the 50s...


Shows why Pavlovic had a short career.

Also, notice those guys are at least 70% FT.

Josh Jackson is.... roughly 15% below that. That's a huge chunk. I'd even argue those guys listed are closer to 80% from the FT line, than the 55% that Jackson is at.

Quote:

I don't doubt he's going to. I thought the kid would never have his jumper till maybe midway through his 2nd NBA season


It's awesome to see the improvement. It doesn't always stick. Didn't stick for D'Lo. Didn't stick for Ingram. They were WAY hotter behind the arc as well. It's shocking how disappointing DLO's 3pt% in Feb/March compared to earlier in the season. DLO's form actually deconstructed from Ohio St. Now we see poor FG% with mechanics issues. Ingram? He needs a shot doctor now. Jackson? Even getting rid of a hitch on the gather, he still needs one. I find 55%FT pretty inexcusable.
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Top 3 Pick: Fultz, Tatum, Ball

New #28 since all my guys jumped up:
Semi Ojeleye
TJ Leaf
Josh Hart
Ike Anigbogu
Aaron Holiday
Wesley Iwundu
Aleksandar Vezenkov
Bam Adebayo

https://hoop-math.com/
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:18 am    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
Top 5 from what I've seen would be

Markelle Fultz
Lonzo Ball
Jayson Tatum / Josh Jackson
Jonathan Issac
Malik Monk


I'm roughly of this mode, but with Isaac out and Patton in, and not in order.
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Top 3 Pick: Fultz, Tatum, Ball

New #28 since all my guys jumped up:
Semi Ojeleye
TJ Leaf
Josh Hart
Ike Anigbogu
Aaron Holiday
Wesley Iwundu
Aleksandar Vezenkov
Bam Adebayo

https://hoop-math.com/
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:29 am    Post subject:

To the LG draftniks: any sleeper favorites out there?

Not just guys who you think will out-perform their projected draft position, but who you think have star upside - the Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic types who make conventional consensus look silly in hindsight.

I'm not going out on much of a limb, but PF/C Robert Williams has the physical tools, the skill foundation, and the mean streak to be a two-way star PF. I'd love an opportunity for the Lakers to pick him up in the late lottery, but Charlotte and Detroit may be the only teams in that range to send out a 1st rounder.

Any other star potential sleepers you see in this draft?
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