|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
LakerLanny
Retired Number
Joined: 24 Oct 2001
Posts: 47580
|
 Posted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| KindCrippler2000 wrote: |
I'm guessing never. I was never optimistic about the defense at any point this season.
Just around the time they were 10-10, I predicted this would happen because they were so hell-bent on outscoring opponents (courtesy of Lou Williams and Nick Young). They got scouted and the rest was history.
They've been historically bad since Jan. 15, although Tarik Black starting for a brief stretch shored up the DRTG. It doesn't matter what rotations were trotted out - the personnel has always been lacking according to the week to week dtrgs. They'll need major movement this off-season to fix it. I have no doubt FO considers some guys expendable because of it. |
This is spot on in my mind.
The 10-10 was a mirage and I even hinted at it at the time with the fact that they were still giving up a LOT of points.
Now it is at historically bad levels, league wide. I could understand with an older team but with young guys?
I am afraid Mitch and company left us with a rotten barrel of apples.
_________________
Love, Laker Lanny |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pio2u
Retired Number
Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 54571
|
| Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
Team defensive ratings since Mar. 1
1. Warriors
2. Raptors
15. Mavs
29. Cavs
30. Lakers
Full List: http://on.nba.com/2nV9d10 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
|
| Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I posted this elsewhere, but:
Clarkson/ Russell/ Ingram/ Randle is an absolute abomination on defense. So expect our numbers to keep getting worse and worse. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ziggy
Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 12712
|
| Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| At least we can say we're close to the Cavs in something. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| LakerLanny wrote: | | KindCrippler2000 wrote: |
I'm guessing never. I was never optimistic about the defense at any point this season.
Just around the time they were 10-10, I predicted this would happen because they were so hell-bent on outscoring opponents (courtesy of Lou Williams and Nick Young). They got scouted and the rest was history.
They've been historically bad since Jan. 15, although Tarik Black starting for a brief stretch shored up the DRTG. It doesn't matter what rotations were trotted out - the personnel has always been lacking according to the week to week dtrgs. They'll need major movement this off-season to fix it. I have no doubt FO considers some guys expendable because of it. |
This is spot on in my mind.
The 10-10 was a mirage and I even hinted at it at the time with the fact that they were still giving up a LOT of points.
Now it is at historically bad levels, league wide. I could understand with an older team but with young guys?
I am afraid Mitch and company left us with a rotten barrel of apples. |
It was a indeed a mirage and a large portion of people (myself included) were living in fantasy land. Once my head clears, I'll talk about why the pieces never fit at any point during the season. There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking. The harshest reminder of this was when they went 1-12 (the worst 13 game stretch in Lakers history) with Deng-Mozgov in the starting unit. I'll be breaking down some of the games and why they failed to delivered on that end. If there was a good defensive line-up, it was inconsistent at delivering the desired defensive intensity to even beat a team like the Nets. From Deng's lateral movement woes to Mozgov's complete and utter lack of rim protection (see earlier data), it is of the utmost importance to talk about why the team needed to move on from them. Mozgov was phased out of Cleveland's rotation for a reason. There is no scenario where they would take him back. Lastly, I'll address the need for more Nwaba's on the team. It would be worthwhile to invest in more d-league talent, and I think Luke talked about this earlier. I see Nwaba on the team for a long time. Brewer is also important to have. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
|
| Posted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: | | There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking |
Nope. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
defense
Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jan 2010
Posts: 39451
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I would love to be a fly on the wall in practice so I could witness what the coaches are teaching these guys about defense. What ever it is isn't working. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| tox wrote: | | Quote: | | There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking |
Nope. |
1) Starting with Mozgov:
- Back when the honeymoon with Mozgov wasn't quite over, I was one of the few consistently calling him out for his lack of rim protection (numbers are in this thread). Unsurprisingly, the Lakers went on to lose all but one game in the month of December, changing the narrative on Mozgov and Deng entirely. I thought that really marked the first month where we witnessed their sharp decline on both ends of the floor. This was also around the time the tank threads started (Note that Ingram was coming off the bench and Zubac was not in the rotation yet). If they weren't tanking then, then I don't think people understood the level of defensive breakdowns the team continued to have. Part of it was because the rim protection was non-existent. Luke's small ball rotations didn't help, but I don't think switching to bigger line-ups made a difference. Their inability to come up with stops during crucial sequences was the reason they lost to lottery teams like the Nets and Magic. If Mozgov wasn't producing on the offensive end, it made little sense to play him over Tarik Black, and Zubac's development should have started much sooner.
When Mozgov was playing significant minutes at the C position, the Lakers were:
a) Giving up the most paint points in the league. In the week to week rankings, there was no correlation between Mozgov's minutes and a decrease in opponent paint scoring.
b) Giving up the highest FG% in the paint by a large margin (62.5%). There was no correlation between Mozgov's minutes and a decrease in opponent FG% at the rim. His inability to deter/block shots in the paint led to easy scores for opponents. Admittedly, some of this had to do with poor perimeter defense from our guards, but Mozgov wasn't exactly a last line of defense either (see next point)
c) Posting the most dismal blocks per 48 minute numbers the team has ever seen (1.35). Mozgov was 38 out of 47 in BLKP48M at his position. When he was playing, his defensive impact was on par with Enes Kanter (1.31). This would only fly if his offensive production matched Kanter's.
Mozgov's year to year BLKP48M:
2014-2015 - 2.28
2015-2016 - 2.06
2016-2017 - 1.35
Some sequences that show a considerable decline in his lift this season:
- Just puts his hands up, expecting Dragic to not score on him: https://3ball.io/plays/lakers%20heat%20drivi?playId=0021600549_62
- No activity against McCollum. Jumps after McCollum is already at the hoop and doesn't even attempt to shuffle his feet: https://3ball.io/plays/mccollum%20lakers?playId=0021600689_45
(Luke was displeased and an unprepared Zubac stole his minutes that game.)
- Doesn't even bother to help Randle even when he is in position to do so: https://3ball.io/plays/peyton%20lakers%20drive?playId=0021600567_221
Something happened to him in Cleveland last season. It's like he lost his ability to get off the ground after that botched knee surgery. He's not able to shuffle his feet and establish optimal shot-blocking position. He's not able to draw charges. Like Deng, I'm guessing the lift isn't there anymore. He's not able to have a noticeable impact on defense and it would be counter productive to have him anchoring a defense at this point of his career. I don't think anyone would disagree that he's much more suited for a reserve, if not third string role for a playoff team. When Cleveland phased him out of the rotation last season, it should have raised a red flag.
2) I'll do a post on Deng's defensive impact after this one. Aside from having his worst offensive season in the NBA this year, he was almost equally as bad on the defensive end. He wasn't forced to protect the rim, so his deficiencies were more hidden. A lot of his issues had to do with his inability to keep up laterally with opponents. He'd then use his body to compensate for it, which led to opponents drawing fouls against him. His transition defense was also pretty woeful. People say he's a 4 in today's game but I don't see it. I don't think he has the lift to be effective on both ends. The arc on his shot is gone, so he can't make defenses pay. I'm also not convinced he can keep up with 4s in the league.
3) Defensively, the Lakers were arguably their best at the start of the season (Nance's health played a big role in this). The Nance-Black line up had tangible defensive impact and they were winning games. When they were productive, they were better by a fairly good margin:
-----unit----- minutes played----defensive rating
Week 1: 10/26/2016 - 11/02/2016
L.Deng, T.Mozgov, J.Randle, D.Russell, N.Young, 50 minutes, drtg: 106.4
T.Black, J.Clarkson, B.Ingram, L.Nance Jr., L.Williams, 25 minutes, drtg: 88.7
Difference in rating: 17.7
Week 2: 11/03/2016 - 11/10/2016
L.Deng, T.Mozgov, J.Randle, D.Russell, N.Young, 62 minutes, drtg: 115.3
T.Black, J.Clarkson, B.Ingram, L.Nance Jr., L.Williams, 26 minutes, drtg: 62.2
Difference in rating: 53.1
Week 3: 11/11/2016 - 11/18/2016
L.Deng, T.Mozgov, J.Randle, D.Russell, N.Young, 45 minutes, drtg: 103.7
T.Black, J.Clarkson, B.Ingram, L.Nance Jr., L.Williams, 41 minutes, drtg: 112.4
Difference in rating: -8.7
Overall:
L.Deng, T.Mozgov, J.Randle, D.Russell, N.Young, 403 minutes, drtg: 103.7
T.Black, J.Clarkson, B.Ingram, L.Nance Jr., L.Williams, 195 minutes, drtg: 100.2
Difference in rating: 3.5
The bench had two sieves in Clarkson and Lou and they still out-performed the starting unit. The Black-Nance-Ingram tandem had a combination of rim protection, length and speed that the first unit was not able to replicate. The real tank move would have been shelving both Black and Nance, not Deng and Mozgov.
4) Zubac clearly isn't ready for the physicality of the NBA, but he has promise as a defensive anchor. He's bad defensively, but he has the capacity to compensate with his offense. I'm not worried about him, although I'm in favor of finding a more seasoned player to teach him the nuances of positioning and timing. Mozgov was never really that guy, although he's a good veteran to have around. Dedmon is one guy they should try to acquire if the Spurs don't lock him up. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Updated Rim Protection numbers for active bigs:
(Name opponent field goals made / opponent field goals attempted, % opponent shoots at the rim):
Nance 107/181 59.1%
Randle 201/343 58.6%
Black 127/242 52.5%
Zubac 118/232 50.9%
Contrary to popular belief, Zubac is doing his job at the rim. If the goal is to be the last line of defense, he's doing the best he possibly can given his limitations with strength, conditioning and weight. It's one of the reasons he projects well in the future. He needs to be evaluated in a line-up that doesn't feature Russell and Clarkson (our perimeter defense is arguably the worst in the league). Randle's numbers have declined and Nance has slightly improved. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dcarter4kobe
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Jul 2005
Posts: 17674
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| KindCrippler2000 wrote: | Updated Rim Protection numbers for active bigs:
(Name opponent field goals made / opponent field goals attempted, % opponent shoots at the rim):
Nance 107/181 59.1%
Randle 201/343 58.6%
Black 127/242 52.5%
Zubac 118/232 50.9%
Contrary to popular belief, Zubac is doing his job at the rim. If the goal is to be the last line of defense, he's doing the best he possibly can given his limitations with strength, conditioning and weight. It's one of the reasons he projects well in the future. He needs to be evaluated in a line-up that doesn't feature Russell and Clarkson (our perimeter defense is arguably the worst in the league). Randle's numbers have declined and Nance has slightly improved. |
Can you include Mozgov numbers? (Although he isn't active)
_________________
"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
fiendishoc
Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 8488
Location: The (real) short corner
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
OPIP, in my estimation, paints a less accurate, if not misleading measure of rim protection:
-OPIP does not say which player was at the rim when the shot was being made in the paint. If a big steps out to the perimeter and someone scores in the paint, it doesn't paint an accurate representation of rim protection. It just says paint points were given up when a player was on the court, which is also heavily dependent on the rotations.
-The rim protection data is more specific and says WHO was at the rim at the time of the shot contest. It is less rotation-specific. Even if a guard gives up dribble penetration, it tells us that a particular player was in the paint, presumably altering the shot. It's accurate for guys like Gobert, Green, Whiteside, Porzingis. I think it's pretty accurate for Zubac. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| dcarter4kobe wrote: | | KindCrippler2000 wrote: | Updated Rim Protection numbers for active bigs:
(Name opponent field goals made / opponent field goals attempted, % opponent shoots at the rim):
Nance 107/181 59.1%
Randle 201/343 58.6%
Black 127/242 52.5%
Zubac 118/232 50.9%
Contrary to popular belief, Zubac is doing his job at the rim. If the goal is to be the last line of defense, he's doing the best he possibly can given his limitations with strength, conditioning and weight. It's one of the reasons he projects well in the future. He needs to be evaluated in a line-up that doesn't feature Russell and Clarkson (our perimeter defense is arguably the worst in the league). Randle's numbers have declined and Nance has slightly improved. |
Can you include Mozgov numbers? (Although he isn't active) |
Mozgov - 144/269 53.5% |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
fiendishoc
Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 8488
Location: The (real) short corner
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
| KindCrippler2000 wrote: |
OPIP, in my estimation, paints a less accurate, if not misleading measure of rim protection:
-OPIP does not say which player was at the rim when the shot was being made in the paint. If a big steps out to the perimeter and someone scores in the paint, it doesn't paint an accurate representation of rim protection. It just says paint points were given up when a player was on the court, which is also heavily dependent on the rotations.
-The rim protection data is more specific and says WHO was at the rim at the time of the shot contest. It is less rotation-specific. Even if a guard gives up dribble penetration, it tells us that a particular player was in the paint, presumably altering the shot. It's accurate for guys like Gobert, Green, Whiteside, Porzingis. I think it's pretty accurate for Zubac. |
Actually contesting shots at the rim is just one component of being a defensive anchor as a big. It also encompasses calling coverages from the back, getting in the right position to contain, rotating when things break down, and then finishing the defensive possession by helping your team secure the rebound. A lot of these things, when done well, actually deter attempts at the rim, which is just as valuable as contesting a shot, if not more.
So you can't make the case that Zubac is already a better defensive player than Mozgov just based on the rim protection and block numbers, when the on off data points to him being a worse defender, particularly in allowing points in the paint. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | tox wrote: | | Quote: | | There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking |
Nope. |
Wall of text.
|
OK so Mozgov hasn't been a superlative rim protector. I think anyone could have told you that. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value on defense? There's more to defense than rim protection, and in 2017, teams pull out your rim protecting 5 for that very reason. Even Gobert's block numbers are trending downwards, ignoring his injured last season. Same with Whiteside. DJ's at a near career low. That's why it's so important that your 4 play defense. Speaking of which -- it's hard to disentangle just how much Mozgov (and Zubac now) was hurt playing next to Randle. Play after play of a 1-5 lob because Randle refused to tag the roll man... it hurts to think about.
Way more goes into defense than just getting blocks, there's a reason Roy Hibbert is on his way out of the league. I have no idea why you focus on this single stat -- especially when blocks are a misleading representation of rim protection as fiendish points out (though an irrelevant distinction as I agree Moz was lacking as a rim protector).
As far as Tarik/ Nance/ Ingram go... ok cool. So they are a good trio defensively. So what? Even if the starters were overall worse on defense than the bench, both sets were still good. How does that prove anything? Hell, you could easily argue the +3 improvement in defensive rating is offset by the difference in opponent quality. And yes, shelving Tarik/Nance would have also helped the tank. I have no idea why you think that means that shelving Mozgov/Deng wouldn't also help the tank.
So, to recap:
1) Your argument on Mozgov: focuses on a single aspect for some reason. So congrats? I agree with you on that point, but you're overextending its impact.
2) Your argument on Deng: non-existent. What troubles me is your focus on stuff that is nearly irrelevant, like fouls drawn, and the angle you're approaching this: "He wasn't forced to protect the rim, so his deficiencies were more hidden." I have no idea why you'd bring up rim protection for Deng. I think you mean that there's no easily accessible stat like rim protection to show how Deng was poor defensively. But you're chasing after fool's gold there. No such stat for Deng exists, but no such stat for Mozgov exists either.
3) Your argument on Tarik/Nance: a pointless false dichotomy. It can be the case that Tarik/Nance are very valuable defensively, and that Mozgov/Deng are also valuable defensively.
4) I can agree with that for the most part.
Last edited by tox on Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:19 am; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Shaber
Star Player
Joined: 12 Mar 2006
Posts: 3732
Location: The other side
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:52 am Post subject: |
|
|
| tox wrote: | | KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | tox wrote: | | Quote: | | There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking |
Nope. |
Wall of text.
|
OK so Mozgov hasn't been a superlative rim protector. I think anyone could have told you that. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value on defense? There's more to defense than rim protection, and in 2017, teams pull out your rim protecting 5 for that very reason. Even Gobert's block numbers are trending downwards, ignoring his injured last season. Same with Whiteside. DJ's at a near career low. That's why it's so important that your 4 play defense. Speaking of which -- it's hard to disentangle just how much Mozgov (and Zubac now) was hurt playing next to Randle. Play after play of a 1-5 lob because Randle refused to tag the defender... it hurts to think about.
Way more goes into defense than just getting blocks, there's a reason Roy Hibbert is on his way out of the league. I have no idea why you focus on this single stat -- especially when blocks are a misleading representation of rim protection as fiendish points out (though an irrelevant distinction as I agree Moz was lacking as a rim protector).
As far as Tarik/ Nance/ Ingram go... ok cool. So they are a good trio defensively. So what? Even if the starters were overall worse on defense than the bench, both sets were still good. How does that prove anything? Hell, you could easily argue the +3 improvement in defensive rating is offset by the difference in opponent quality. And yes, shelving Tarik/Nance would have also helped the tank. I have no idea why you think that means that shelving Mozgov/Deng wouldn't also help the tank.
So, to recap:
1) Your argument on Mozgov: focuses on a single aspect for some reason. So congrats? I agree with you on that point, but you're overextending its impact.
2) Your argument on Deng: non-existent. What troubles me is your focus on stuff that is nearly irrelevant, like fouls drawn, and the angle you're approaching this: "He wasn't forced to protect the rim, so his deficiencies were more hidden." I have no idea why you'd bring up rim protection for Deng. I think you mean that there's no easily accessible stat like rim protection to show how Deng was poor defensively. But you're chasing after fool's gold there. No such stat for Deng exists, but no such stat for Mozgov exists either.
3) Your argument on Tarik/Nance: a pointless false dichotomy. It can be the case that Tarik/Nance are very valuable defensively, and that Mozgov/Deng are also valuable defensively.
4) I can agree with that for the most part. |
Statswise, it still seems that no other lineup can beat the trio of Deng-Black Mozgov (with Russell and Young, 100% win pct in 41 min against good teams - per 82games.com).
_________________
.
Lakers depth chart
PG Johnson / Goodrich
SG Bryant / West / Scott
SF Baylor / Worthy / Cooper
PF Mikkelsen / Hairston / McAdoo / Gasol
C Chamberlain / Abdul-Jabbar / O'Neal / Mikan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Omar Little
Moderator
Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:25 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Shaber wrote: | | tox wrote: | | KindCrippler2000 wrote: | | tox wrote: | | Quote: | | There are some serious misconceptions going around about Deng and Mozgov that it's sort of treading into fantasy land, if not wishful thinking |
Nope. |
Wall of text.
|
OK so Mozgov hasn't been a superlative rim protector. I think anyone could have told you that. That doesn't mean he doesn't have value on defense? There's more to defense than rim protection, and in 2017, teams pull out your rim protecting 5 for that very reason. Even Gobert's block numbers are trending downwards, ignoring his injured last season. Same with Whiteside. DJ's at a near career low. That's why it's so important that your 4 play defense. Speaking of which -- it's hard to disentangle just how much Mozgov (and Zubac now) was hurt playing next to Randle. Play after play of a 1-5 lob because Randle refused to tag the defender... it hurts to think about.
Way more goes into defense than just getting blocks, there's a reason Roy Hibbert is on his way out of the league. I have no idea why you focus on this single stat -- especially when blocks are a misleading representation of rim protection as fiendish points out (though an irrelevant distinction as I agree Moz was lacking as a rim protector).
As far as Tarik/ Nance/ Ingram go... ok cool. So they are a good trio defensively. So what? Even if the starters were overall worse on defense than the bench, both sets were still good. How does that prove anything? Hell, you could easily argue the +3 improvement in defensive rating is offset by the difference in opponent quality. And yes, shelving Tarik/Nance would have also helped the tank. I have no idea why you think that means that shelving Mozgov/Deng wouldn't also help the tank.
So, to recap:
1) Your argument on Mozgov: focuses on a single aspect for some reason. So congrats? I agree with you on that point, but you're overextending its impact.
2) Your argument on Deng: non-existent. What troubles me is your focus on stuff that is nearly irrelevant, like fouls drawn, and the angle you're approaching this: "He wasn't forced to protect the rim, so his deficiencies were more hidden." I have no idea why you'd bring up rim protection for Deng. I think you mean that there's no easily accessible stat like rim protection to show how Deng was poor defensively. But you're chasing after fool's gold there. No such stat for Deng exists, but no such stat for Mozgov exists either.
3) Your argument on Tarik/Nance: a pointless false dichotomy. It can be the case that Tarik/Nance are very valuable defensively, and that Mozgov/Deng are also valuable defensively.
4) I can agree with that for the most part. |
Statswise, it still seems that no other lineup can beat the trio of Deng-Black Mozgov (with Russell and Young, 100% win pct in 41 min against good teams - per 82games.com). |
Stats wise, pretty much anyone other than Clarkson with those four has done well. Randle, ingram, black...
_________________
“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| fiendishoc wrote: | | KindCrippler2000 wrote: |
OPIP, in my estimation, paints a less accurate, if not misleading measure of rim protection:
-OPIP does not say which player was at the rim when the shot was being made in the paint. If a big steps out to the perimeter and someone scores in the paint, it doesn't paint an accurate representation of rim protection. It just says paint points were given up when a player was on the court, which is also heavily dependent on the rotations.
-The rim protection data is more specific and says WHO was at the rim at the time of the shot contest. It is less rotation-specific. Even if a guard gives up dribble penetration, it tells us that a particular player was in the paint, presumably altering the shot. It's accurate for guys like Gobert, Green, Whiteside, Porzingis. I think it's pretty accurate for Zubac. |
Actually contesting shots at the rim is just one component of being a defensive anchor as a big. It also encompasses calling coverages from the back, getting in the right position to contain, rotating when things break down, and then finishing the defensive possession by helping your team secure the rebound. A lot of these things, when done well, actually deter attempts at the rim, which is just as valuable as contesting a shot, if not more.
So you can't make the case that Zubac is already a better defensive player than Mozgov just based on the rim protection and block numbers, when the on off data points to him being a worse defender, particularly in allowing points in the paint. |
I agree with you 100% on the first point. I mentioned that a lot of our defensive mishaps could have been ameliorated if there was more communication on that end. But, and a very big BUTT, there's a difference between calling out a coverage and reacting to it. I always believed our inability to do the latter was due to the lack of appropriate defensive personnel. For example, ice coverage loses its effectiveness if the big doesn't have the footspeed or lift to react quickly enough to cut off penetration. I felt that this was the case with Mozgov on numerous occasions. Here is one sequence with Moz-Deng that exemplifies this: https://3ball.io/plays/gordon%20hayward%20lakers?playId=0021600693_46 - Deng yells ice, only for Mozgov to NOT do his job and give up the easy bucket. The whole team fell victim to low defensive standards, but it's not like our vets were setting a good example for the youth. I was in favor of Zubac learning the ropes early on because the team was going absolutely nowhere with our vets. The week to week rankings did not show any tangible defensive progress.
On the second point -
If an opponent realizes that a team has non-existent rim protection, they will relentlessly attack the rim. If a big is consistently out of position and not where he should be in the paint, they will exploit that in crucial situations. Blocks shouldn't be the endgame on defense, although low block numbers are symbolic of the problem. It is about making opponents second guess attacking the rim, which is why I think shot alteration (or rim protection data) is more important. Nance went into detail on this in an interview last year and said Zubac needed to let opponents think twice about scoring in the paint. It's more about establishing a defensive precedent. If the Lakers had a good defensive reptuation, they'd be getting the benefit of the doubt on calls. I'm guessing scouting reports are likely formulated on shot contests in the paint. If they see we are giving up 62.5% in the paint, then that is undoubtedly where they will try to score.
PITP may have some merits, but I still don't believe it is the best way to assess individual rim protection:
1) Unless I'm mistaken, PITP doesn't appear to control for transition points. It is just defined as a score in the paint:
| Quote: | | Points In The Paint is calculated based off of shot location data. The value includes all made shots from inside the free-throw lane. |
If an opponent goes coast to coast while Zubac is on the other end of the court, it will register as points in the paint. I'm not in favor of using that metric because it counts against him even when he wasn't in the sequence. Missed long balls set up easy transition points. We know our team has an unhealthy love affair with long balls. If the team is horrible in PITP, it could also be reflective of poor transition defense (and not just rim protection). Lakers are last in opponent fastbreak points per game.
2) I said this in the last post - it doesn't control for rotations. The rotations being used right now are giving up lots of transition points. I still want to see how Zubac holds up with better defensive players.
My argument wasn't necessarily saying Zubac is the better defensive player. It was indicating that he's on a more promising trajectory than most of our players, and with some decent rim protection numbers to boot. If we're talking about overall defense, Black is undeniably the best post defender, although Zubac has his own strengths. He tracks the ball well. He doesn't give up on defensive sequences (unlike Mozgov) despite being physically outmatched. Unlike Hibbert, he has an offensive game, so teams have to stay in front of him and respect his jumper. He's posting excellent BP48M numbers for his age group (2.61). I think those things bode well for his future success at the center position. He has ways to go, but it's infinitely better to develop him than have Mozgov take his minutes. Not like either players had an impact on the win column. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
fiendishoc
Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 8488
Location: The (real) short corner
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
1) I can't view 3 ball for some reason, so I'll have to take your word for it. I will say though that the "guard" is supposed to wait for the big to call ICE before doing it, not the other way around.
2) Opponent fast break points is the column right next to PITP. They give up more with Mozgov on the court so I can't imagine it makes any significant difference on the PITP differential, which is huge.
| Quote: | | If an opponent realizes that a team has non-existent rim protection, they will relentlessly attack the rim. If a big is consistently out of position and not where he should be in the paint, they will exploit that in crucial situations. |
This is probably why we give up fewer PITP with Moz than Zu. Because Zu is out of position more than Moz. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
KindCrippler2000
Franchise Player
Joined: 02 May 2003
Posts: 15821
|
| Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| fiendishoc wrote: | 1) I can't view 3 ball for some reason, so I'll have to take your word for it. I will say though that the "guard" is supposed to wait for the big to call ICE before doing it, not the other way around.
2) Opponent fast break points is the column right next to PITP. They give up more with Mozgov on the court so I can't imagine it makes any significant difference on the PITP differential, which is huge.
| Quote: | | If an opponent realizes that a team has non-existent rim protection, they will relentlessly attack the rim. If a big is consistently out of position and not where he should be in the paint, they will exploit that in crucial situations. |
This is probably why we give up fewer PITP with Moz than Zu. Because Zu is out of position more than Moz. |
A few things -
1) The difference in fastbreak points is negligible and not statistically significant (1.8) in this scenario. It's essentially less than one bucket. We also no way of knowing how many of those fastbreak points are 3s or 2s from game to game. From a broader perspective - if OPIP can't control for fastbreak paint points, it is a shaky metric for measuring rim protection. A guy being on one end of the court can't possibly defend or alter a shot on the other end, which is why I'm in favor of the defensive impact stat. On a team that is giving up the most transition points in the league, it becomes even less stable.
2) OPIP appears to be heavily dependent on the rotations. For example, TRob's OPIP is just two points more than Mozgov's, but he's not a rim protector in any sense of the definition. Opponents are shooting 60% at the rim against him. He's usually out of position and has a hard time matching up to larger opponents in the paint. For example, I think Gasol went a perfect 7/7 on him in the paint when they played the Spurs. His low OPITP is more representative of the unit he's playing with. This is even more significant because Luke has played him at center. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
AshesToAshes
Star Player
Joined: 20 Jun 2009
Posts: 4837
|
| Posted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
Our defense is less funny than people thinking a bunch of guys thrown together recently will play good TEAM defense.
Then how many guys are also on their rookie contracts?
_________________
KOBE!!! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
