| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Iversondalivest1
Starting Rotation
Joined: 06 Dec 2013
Posts: 293
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
activeverb
Retired Number
Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
|
 Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 7:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
| If you're really interested, it's easy enough to go to basketball reference.com and look at who's been drafted in the spot in question and with if they become an All-Star |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
richmorgan12
Starting Rotation
Joined: 13 Feb 2017
Posts: 595
|
| Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Probability of picking a future all-star (1-8 since 1980) |
|
|
The 3rd pick can't possibly have a "higher chance" of being an all-star than the first or second pick, because 2 potential all-stars have already been picked. History isn't probability, it's just history. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
activeverb
Retired Number
Joined: 17 Jun 2006
Posts: 37470
|
| Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Probability of picking a future all-star (1-8 since 1980) |
|
|
| richmorgan12 wrote: |
The 3rd pick can't possibly have a "higher chance" of being an all-star than the first or second pick, because 2 potential all-stars have already been picked. History isn't probability, it's just history. |
That's true. You might find that, oh, 40% of #3 picks in the past made an all-star team but that in no way means that 40% of #3 picks in the future will make an all-star team.
If you want to work out the percentages for the fun of it, that's cool, but they're not predictive. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
FanOfFour
Star Player
Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 1761
|
| Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Probability of picking a future all-star (1-8 since 1980) |
|
|
| activeverb wrote: | | richmorgan12 wrote: |
The 3rd pick can't possibly have a "higher chance" of being an all-star than the first or second pick, because 2 potential all-stars have already been picked. History isn't probability, it's just history. |
That's true. You might find that, oh, 40% of #3 picks in the past made an all-star team but that in no way means that 40% of #3 picks in the future will make an all-star team.
If you want to work out the percentages for the fun of it, that's cool, but they're not predictive. |
Yep, all that tells us is bad franchises have bad scouting historically. Is that really a shock? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
saetarubia
Star Player
Joined: 06 Jul 2014
Posts: 6208
|
| Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 1:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yea, it's due to GMs making poor choices. And few drafts are crapshoots after #1 like in 2004 that had Dwight and Deng was the player with most all star appearances(2) after that.
_________________
Showtime 2.0 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
WeDidItReddit
Star Player
Joined: 10 May 2015
Posts: 1087
|
| Posted: Fri May 19, 2017 2:52 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Again, correlation does not prove causation. Just like before the lottery, people were saying how in the past, 3rd place has the highest chance to jump to 1st or something like that. The lottery each year is a separate event, the past events don't influence future ones. Once again, the results of past drafts don't influence this one. Most of the busts at 2 are due to poor management and scouting, not because there is some weird jinx that makes 2nd picks play bad |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Staccatos
Star Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2002
Posts: 2416
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
El Seano
Starting Rotation
Joined: 14 Nov 2008
Posts: 895
|
| Posted: Sat May 20, 2017 5:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yeah I couldn't agree more. I looked up all the #2 picks recently and it's a long list of "wouldn't want them on my team" (including Hasheem Thabeet, that one must have stung even if it was a weak draft)
The whole thing is a crap shoot unless (and sometimes even if) you've got the first pick. Clarkson is better than the vast majority of players picked ahead of him in his draft, I think there are even some people picked ahead of him in that draft that never played an NBA game.
The whole draft system is like a human lottery, pure chance, that's why its attractive for fans to follow. I mean the greatest QB of all time got picked in the 6th round. Players like Arenas and Ginobli got picked way late. It wouldn't be fun if stuff like that didn't happen.
This is why I think drafting for anything other than BPA is stupid because you have no idea what is what until three or four years down the line. It's kinda easy to say Fox or whomever over Ball at this point because it suits the team better but the team will most likely be entirely different by the time that player comes to fruition, if he ever does.
Outside of the first pick you do your due diligence and go BPA. TBH even if you're first you do the same it's just that half the drafts I've looked at you already know who you're taking as soon as the draft lottery is over. I really can't remember the last draft where there was honestly a legitimate guessing game as to who was going to be first; matter of fact half the time we know by January of the preceding season. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
PRLakeShow
Franchise Player
Joined: 07 Oct 2016
Posts: 10460
|
| Posted: Sat May 20, 2017 5:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| El Seano wrote: | Yeah I couldn't agree more. I looked up all the #2 picks recently and it's a long list of "wouldn't want them on my team" (including Hasheem Thabeet, that one must have stung even if it was a weak draft)
The whole thing is a crap shoot unless (and sometimes even if) you've got the first pick. Clarkson is better than the vast majority of players picked ahead of him in his draft, I think there are even some people picked ahead of him in that draft that never played an NBA game.
The whole draft system is like a human lottery, pure chance, that's why its attractive for fans to follow. I mean the greatest QB of all time got picked in the 6th round. Players like Arenas and Ginobli got picked way late. It wouldn't be fun if stuff like that didn't happen.
This is why I think drafting for anything other than BPA is stupid because you have no idea what is what until three or four years down the line. It's kinda easy to say Fox or whomever over Ball at this point because it suits the team better but the team will most likely be entirely different by the time that player comes to fruition, if he ever does.
Outside of the first pick you do your due diligence and go BPA. TBH even if you're first you do the same it's just that half the drafts I've looked at you already know who you're taking as soon as the draft lottery is over. I really can't remember the last draft where there was honestly a legitimate guessing game as to who was going to be first; matter of fact half the time we know by January of the preceding season. |
Easy one brah. 2013. Anthony (bleep) Bennett. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
El Seano
Starting Rotation
Joined: 14 Nov 2008
Posts: 895
|
| Posted: Sat May 20, 2017 6:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| IceInMyVeins wrote: |
Easy one brah. 2013. Anthony (bleep) Bennett. |
Valid point but still nobody can tell me that wasn't the weakest draft this league has seen since 2000, which puts it right up there with the worst ever. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
LakerSanity
Moderator
Joined: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 33474
Location: Long Beach, California
|
| Posted: Sat May 20, 2017 6:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
There is a reason the same teams consistently fall in the lottery... look at Sacramento, for example. Look at all of the draft picks Charlotte has used and wasted (Adam Morrison anyone?). These teams keep ending up in the lottery and not improving because they have terrible front offices who pick the wrong players. Not all picks are equal as it depends on who is the one with the pick and making the decision.
_________________
LakersGround's Terms of Service
Twitter: @DeleteThisPost |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
adkindo
Retired Number
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 40345
Location: Dirty South
|
| Posted: Sat May 20, 2017 6:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| LakerSanity wrote: | | There is a reason the same teams consistently fall in the lottery... look at Sacramento, for example. Look at all of the draft picks Charlotte has used and wasted (Adam Morrison anyone?). These teams keep ending up in the lottery and not improving because they have terrible front offices who pick the wrong players. Not all picks are equal as it depends on who is the one with the pick and making the decision. |
I agree....if the #2 pick has a bad history, or any other number, all that says is the teams in those slots made poor choices....as not effect of future teams that select in those slots. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
