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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:56 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Next up on the list:

Cabrera at 451. I think he'll make 500. If he stays healthy and productive, I guess he could push 600. He's 34, so it's possible that he could make it, though unlikely.

Adrian Beltre at 446. He's 38. He should reach 3,000 hits this summer. He has had some injury problems, so he might have to play two more years to reach 500 HRs.

Carlos Beltran at 428. He's 40.

I don't see anyone else who is a major threat to hit 500, much less 600.


Cabrera is such a good pure hitter that he should be able to play a few more seasons at least as a DH, so I think 500 will be a shoo-in as long as he's healthy. (Once Victor Martinez's contract expires after next season, I think Cabrera will become their DH.) Keep in mind that he's under contract through at least 2023 (he has vesting options in '24 and '25). Hitting 600 might be tough; I'll put the over/under for him at 575.

Trout and Harper are obviously so far away, but both are so talented--and got started so early--that I think they get to 500 as long as health permits. Despite Trout's current thumb injury, he's the more likely of the two to stay healthy long-term.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:01 am    Post subject:

I agree about Trout and Harper, but as you say, it depends on their health. The most career HRs by a player currently under 30 is Justin Upton with 232. He turns 30 in August. Giancarlo Stanton has 223 and is 27. Everyone else in the 200 club is at least 30 (Jay Bruce, 254, turned 30 in April).

I'd say that Stanton has a decent chance of getting to 500, but again he has to avoid major injury issues. Bruce and Upton strike me as long shots.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:17 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Two more outfield misplays by the Cardinals today. Cost them the game.


And another on Sunday, leading up to a 3 run homer
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:03 pm    Post subject:

Sorry VLF, but I have to give a tip of the cap to Scooter Gennett for his game against the Cards. 5 for 5, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs. Now that is a career night.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject:

I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:43 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
I agree about Trout and Harper, but as you say, it depends on their health. The most career HRs by a player currently under 30 is Justin Upton with 232. He turns 30 in August. Giancarlo Stanton has 223 and is 27. Everyone else in the 200 club is at least 30 (Jay Bruce, 254, turned 30 in April).

I'd say that Stanton has a decent chance of getting to 500, but again he has to avoid major injury issues. Bruce and Upton strike me as long shots.


Yes, I agree that Bruce and Upton are extreme longshots. Stanton probably has a shot but he's rarely had seasons where he's avoided the DL, so I still consider him to be an underdog to do it.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:16 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.


Either way, still quite a feat. Even the best sluggers have a hard time doing that in the All-Star HR Derby.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:14 am    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.


I don't know about that. If it was Bryce Harper, maybe. But I have trouble imagining a manager thinking, "Scooter Gennett is unstoppable tonight! We must walk him!"
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:02 am    Post subject:

Coming soon, a pitch clock and an electronic strike zone?

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Baseball officials and players may ultimately embrace -- or confront -- two words that seemed unimaginable even five or 10 years ago: pitch clock. And as the union and MLB exchange ideas in the months ahead, some players privately hope that part of the solution is the advent of an electronic strike zone, which they believe could serve to move the games along as much as a time limit between pitches.

There will be change between now and the start of the 2018 season, because under the terms of the CBA, MLB can make rule changes unilaterally if it cannot reach an agreement with the union. The power to alter the rules to accelerate the pace of action -- or to forcibly negotiate the alterations it wants -- is contained within Article XVIII of the collective bargaining agreement, page 77.

The wording is thought to be a long-standing holdover from the 1970s, and while itís not exactly clear why this section was added at that particular time, it certainly is handy now for commissioner Rob Manfred as he endeavors to hasten the way the sport is played, to better reflect the attention spans of these times: "[T]he right of the Clubs to make any rule change whatsoever shall not be impaired or limited in any way," so long as MLB gives notice to the union one season in advance -- which it has already done. The areas of focus for MLB are on the time between pitches and the growing number of meetings among pitchers, catchers and infielders.


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Among the rank and file of the union, the concept may not seem as radical as it once did because the vast majority of MLB players have competed in games in which pitchers are given 20 seconds between deliveries. That rule change was implemented prior to the 2015 season for Double-A and Triple-A, and as researcher Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information dug out, a staggering 74 percent of the 1,047 players on active MLB rosters or disabled lists have played at those two levels since the start of the 2015 season, some on injury rehabilitation assignments.


Quote:
Through negotiation, the players would be in position to get something in return, and in recent weeks some have privately mentioned their hope that the union will push for an automated strike zone, with balls and strikes determined electronically. This would remove the constant debate over strike zone decisions, according to players.

"It could speed up the game at least as much [as the pitch clock]," said one player. "Think about what happens now: You have a close pitch, and the batter steps out to ask the home plate umpire. Or the catcher turns to ask the umpire. Or the pitcher says something, and he slows down because heís frustrated with a call. The benches yell at the umpire, and the umpire turns to yell back.

"That would all go away. Nothing would have to be said. It would either be a ball or a strike, and everybody would move on to the next pitch."


http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16805/olney-baseball-keeps-getting-slower-but-change-will-come-by-2018
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:43 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Coming soon, a pitch clock and an electronic strike zone?

Quote:
Baseball officials and players may ultimately embrace -- or confront -- two words that seemed unimaginable even five or 10 years ago: pitch clock. And as the union and MLB exchange ideas in the months ahead, some players privately hope that part of the solution is the advent of an electronic strike zone, which they believe could serve to move the games along as much as a time limit between pitches.

There will be change between now and the start of the 2018 season, because under the terms of the CBA, MLB can make rule changes unilaterally if it cannot reach an agreement with the union. The power to alter the rules to accelerate the pace of action -- or to forcibly negotiate the alterations it wants -- is contained within Article XVIII of the collective bargaining agreement, page 77.

The wording is thought to be a long-standing holdover from the 1970s, and while itís not exactly clear why this section was added at that particular time, it certainly is handy now for commissioner Rob Manfred as he endeavors to hasten the way the sport is played, to better reflect the attention spans of these times: "[T]he right of the Clubs to make any rule change whatsoever shall not be impaired or limited in any way," so long as MLB gives notice to the union one season in advance -- which it has already done. The areas of focus for MLB are on the time between pitches and the growing number of meetings among pitchers, catchers and infielders.


Quote:
Among the rank and file of the union, the concept may not seem as radical as it once did because the vast majority of MLB players have competed in games in which pitchers are given 20 seconds between deliveries. That rule change was implemented prior to the 2015 season for Double-A and Triple-A, and as researcher Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information dug out, a staggering 74 percent of the 1,047 players on active MLB rosters or disabled lists have played at those two levels since the start of the 2015 season, some on injury rehabilitation assignments.


Quote:
Through negotiation, the players would be in position to get something in return, and in recent weeks some have privately mentioned their hope that the union will push for an automated strike zone, with balls and strikes determined electronically. This would remove the constant debate over strike zone decisions, according to players.

"It could speed up the game at least as much [as the pitch clock]," said one player. "Think about what happens now: You have a close pitch, and the batter steps out to ask the home plate umpire. Or the catcher turns to ask the umpire. Or the pitcher says something, and he slows down because heís frustrated with a call. The benches yell at the umpire, and the umpire turns to yell back.

"That would all go away. Nothing would have to be said. It would either be a ball or a strike, and everybody would move on to the next pitch."


http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16805/olney-baseball-keeps-getting-slower-but-change-will-come-by-2018


Electronic balls and strikes would clearly help the pitchers with better stuff on their downward-breaking sliders/curveballs IMO. The better the downward movement, the more chance you would have to actually get a pitch to cross at the knees. I've seen guys break off incredible sliders and the pitch simply doesn't get called a strike because it breaks down so hard that it's caught well below the knees at the end, and it just looks like a ball to everyone. You'll also see possible advantages to hard throwers who can locate 95+ just above the belt, which is technically supposed to be a strike.

In short, I think that automated balls-and-strikes will give an even bigger advantage to the pitchers with better stuff.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:30 am    Post subject:

The game doesn't need to be speeded up
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:49 am    Post subject:

I don't know whether an automated strike zone would be an advantage for pitchers, even those with great stuff. It's possible, but some of those guys get strike calls from human umpires even though the ball drops out of the zone at the last split second. Also, I've watched a lot of great pitchers manipulate the umpire into calling outside pitches strikes. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were pros at this, though neither of them were really "great stuff" guys.

One thing that would change is two strike dynamics. Right now, batters will swing at close balls because the umpire might call the pitch a strike. We know from the TV pitch tracker that the batters are right about this. With an automated strike zone, batters would be more likely to take pitches with two strikes.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject:

Does baseball have a cocaine problem?

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:38 pm    Post subject:

Anyone hear the Dan Le Batard interview of MLB commissioner Rob Manfred about what is going on in South Florida with the Marlins? Never been a big fan of Le Batard but he called Manfred and MLB on their bs in regards to the Marlins and did not back down. Manfred came off as an angry tool in my opinion.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:43 pm    Post subject:

I would love having the automated strike zone. Man some of those umps are just plain blind. Having a consistent strike zone would be amazing!
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:53 pm    Post subject:

I have mixed feelings on the issue. On the one hand, I understand why the fans in Miami are pissed. As an Astros fan, I watched the team unload all of its stars -- Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt, and others. It really sucked to watch all of those guys playing for other teams.

On the other hand, I understand the sustainability issue for the Marlins. Teams like the Astros and Marlins cannot afford players like Stanton. Guys like that belong on the big money teams. The Marlins cannot win a spending war with the Dodgers or the Yankees. Heck, the Astros averaged about 20,000 in attendance even when we were losing 111 games. The Marlins averaged 4,000 less than that during a year when they won the World Series. Think about that.

In fact, spending a lot of money on superstars can be a pretty risky proposition. The Angels are Exhibit A. I hear Marlins fans saying that they were just a couple pitchers away from the playoffs. Maybe so, but you can't just run down to the dollar store and pick up Clayton Kershaw.

The key for the smaller market teams is making wise, long-term decisions. We know that the Astros are going to lose many of their stars over the next few years. Springer, Correa, and Keuchel will probably move on to big market teams. Fair enough. Our challenge is to have the next wave ready to go. This is how the Cardinals have been operating for years.

That's the world that the Marlins live in. There isn't another Wayne Huizenga coming along to blow a mountain of cash to win a title. In fact, he got sick of it after one title, and he sold the team.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:54 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Funkbot wrote:
I would love having the automated strike zone. Man some of those umps are just plain blind. Having a consistent strike zone would be amazing!


I expect it to happen within about 5-7 years.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:22 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Dr. Funkbot wrote:
I would love having the automated strike zone. Man some of those umps are just plain blind. Having a consistent strike zone would be amazing!


I expect it to happen within about 5-7 years.


I only recently really dove into baseball. I remember as an extremely casual fan back in the 90 watching a game here or there on TV I would see the strike zone overlay on TV even back then and always asked myself why in the hell an umpire is even needed.

Seriously, baseball of all the sports is the absolute no brainer to be automated. Every call an ump makes is 100% binary. Strike or ball. Safe or out. Etc. Toss sensors on every piece of equipment and call it a day.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject:

I think the issue in Miami is more related to MLB constantly claiming the reason why those World Series teams had to be stripped down was because of financial reasons....BUT if they built a shiny new taxpayer funded stadium, they would not longer have those type of problems.....then once they get their stadium, MLB approves an ownership team that comes in and starts stripping down the team. That stadium never gets funded without MLB selling that narrative.

Situations like this and the disparity in payrolls is why baseball has lost so much popularity with younger generations except in a few regions. Much, not al...but much success in MLB is simply bought.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:01 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I think the issue in Miami is more related to MLB constantly claiming the reason why those World Series teams had to be stripped down was because of financial reasons....BUT if they built a shiny new taxpayer funded stadium, they would not longer have those type of problems.....then once they get their stadium, MLB approves an ownership team that comes in and starts stripping down the team. That stadium never gets funded without MLB selling that narrative.

Situations like this and the disparity in payrolls is why baseball has lost so much popularity with younger generations except in a few regions. Much, not al...but much success in MLB is simply bought.


Considering the shenanigans with Marlins ownership throughout its history, why would you even bother being a fan....the team gets good, wins a World Series and then has a firesale afterwards. I'm not surprised the locals find something else to occupy their interest.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:10 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
I think the issue in Miami is more related to MLB constantly claiming the reason why those World Series teams had to be stripped down was because of financial reasons....BUT if they built a shiny new taxpayer funded stadium, they would not longer have those type of problems.....then once they get their stadium, MLB approves an ownership team that comes in and starts stripping down the team. That stadium never gets funded without MLB selling that narrative.

Situations like this and the disparity in payrolls is why baseball has lost so much popularity with younger generations except in a few regions. Much, not al...but much success in MLB is simply bought.


Considering the shenanigans with Marlins ownership throughout its history, why would you even bother being a fan....the team gets good, wins a World Series and then has a firesale afterwards. I'm not surprised the locals find something else to occupy their interest.


that is the point...they were led to believe if they funded a new stadium, they would no longer have to deal with what happened in '97 and '03....and finally have some stability. MLB lied to them in my opinion.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:21 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I think the issue in Miami is more related to MLB constantly claiming the reason why those World Series teams had to be stripped down was because of financial reasons....BUT if they built a shiny new taxpayer funded stadium, they would not longer have those type of problems.....then once they get their stadium, MLB approves an ownership team that comes in and starts stripping down the team. That stadium never gets funded without MLB selling that narrative.

Situations like this and the disparity in payrolls is why baseball has lost so much popularity with younger generations except in a few regions. Much, not al...but much success in MLB is simply bought.


Eh. I think most of that is bull. I doubt that Miami ownership (Loria) ever said that a new stadium would let the Marlins operate like a big market team, and I doubt MLB said much of anything at all. We already know that Loria lied about losing money, so that makes him an easy target. But the fact is that Miami does not support the team, shiny new stadium or not. The Marlins' attendance sucks even when the team wins.

I really don't think that people of Miami were so stupid that they thought a new stadium would fix all of the problems even if people didn't buy tickets. I think this is all a narrative from people who don't want to face up to the real problem.

In fact, I think a lot of Miami sports fans are just in denial about the fact that Miami is a lousy sports town. In the soccer community, we keep shaking our heads about the constant efforts to put a soccer team in Miami. Why do people keep pushing this? One MLS franchise already failed there.

As for the idea that payroll disparities affect younger generations' interest in baseball, that's a stretch. If you made a list of the concerns that younger generations have about baseball, this would be at the bottom of the list, if it made the list at all.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject:

^^^you are extremely unaware and uninformed on the facts of the long drawn out battle to get taxpayers to fund that new stadium....the high stakes carrot and stick game MLB & Marlins ownership played with South Florida in regards to the Marlins.

I am not a member of the "soccer community", but your logic on the surface is extremely flawed. If I recall, didn't Miami's MLS team fail in the late 90's or very early in the new century? Soccer, although still very limited in popularity in the US, has grown substantially over the last 15 years. Toyota originally failed in the US during the late 50's, and terminated exporting to the US....was that evidence that they could not be successful in the US when they tried again in the mid-60's? In regards to MLS.....didn't LA's team originally fail just a few years ago, and they already have a new franchise? Not a soccer fan....but I heard a lot of voices saying soccer could not find success in Florida....but Orlando seems to be doing ok. Doesn't Houston & Dallas actually struggle with attendance more than most MLS organizations?

If you do not think that because 75% of MLB organizations have little chance to contend, year after year because of payroll disparity.....knowing that when they do develop a star, it will be unlikely they are able to keep him, etc. etc. etc. has had a detrimental effect on younger generations interest in the sport and MLB as entertainment throughout a large part of the country.....I would contend....your just wrong.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:55 am    Post subject:

Iím a fairly casual baseball fan (being a Padres fan does that, there hasnít been much to be excited about since around 2009), but I have a question for those of you who are better versed in the workings of the league..

Why doesnít Baseball have salary cap like in the NBA and NFL? Is there any actual reason for it? Itís pretty frustrating as a fan of a small market team to see your best players pawned off to the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers the second theyíre up for their first big contract.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:48 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
^^^you are extremely unaware and uninformed on the facts of the long drawn out battle to get taxpayers to fund that new stadium....the high stakes carrot and stick game MLB & Marlins ownership played with South Florida in regards to the Marlins.

I am not a member of the "soccer community", but your logic on the surface is extremely flawed. If I recall, didn't Miami's MLS team fail in the late 90's or very early in the new century? Soccer, although still very limited in popularity in the US, has grown substantially over the last 15 years. Toyota originally failed in the US during the late 50's, and terminated exporting to the US....was that evidence that they could not be successful in the US when they tried again in the mid-60's? In regards to MLS.....didn't LA's team originally fail just a few years ago, and they already have a new franchise? Not a soccer fan....but I heard a lot of voices saying soccer could not find success in Florida....but Orlando seems to be doing ok. Doesn't Houston & Dallas actually struggle with attendance more than most MLS organizations?

If you do not think that because 75% of MLB organizations have little chance to contend, year after year because of payroll disparity.....knowing that when they do develop a star, it will be unlikely they are able to keep him, etc. etc. etc. has had a detrimental effect on younger generations interest in the sport and MLB as entertainment throughout a large part of the country.....I would contend....your just wrong.


1. No, I am not unaware and uninformed about the taxpayer funding issue in Miami. One of the things we learned is that Loria was lying about his losses while sucking in money through the MLB welfare system.

2. Orlando isn't Miami. You can't get away from the fact that the Marlins have had awful attendance even in years when they had good teams. This inconvenient fact does not go away just because the fans are pissed about the Stanton trade.

3. LA's original MLS team is the Galaxy. The problems with Chivas USA are too complex for a non-soccer thread. Dallas and Houston are doing just fine. MLS as a league isn't doing all that well, though there are people who will vigorously dispute that. Again, this is too complex for a non-soccer thread.

4. The last comment is absurd given that Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Arizona, Colorado, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Baltimore have all made the playoffs and/or won titles in recent years. St. Louis has been a consistent contender for decades.
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