OFFICIAL BRANDON INGRAM THREAD!!
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:48 pm    Post subject:

defense wrote:
What's a reasonable number of minutes to have to consider it a good predictor of how effective those line ups are?

How does those numbers account for strength of opponents or something like whether the team is leading or trailing big? For instance if the Lakers are trailing by say 15 in the middle of the 4th quarter, its stands to reason that more often than not they will make a run before the game is over.


No, those stats don't account for that. I believe that RPM and BPM do, but tox would be a better person to ask.

I'd say that 150 or 200 minutes in a 2-man lineup is predictive, but that's just a guess.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
I think I'll watch the game and see for myself


Not like games are decided by one team outscoring the other or anything.


got any stats for that?
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:35 pm    Post subject:

VicXLakers wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
I think I'll watch the game and see for myself


Not like games are decided by one team outscoring the other or anything.


got any stats for that?


That's what I've been posting.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:40 pm    Post subject:

no need to watch the game then...
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:40 pm    Post subject:

RT, I respect analytics and its place in our sports, but I tend to side with Vic here. Everyone should be able to play with anyone. As a pro athelete, you gotta be able to read all of your teammates, know what you’re running, be on time with your cut and pass, and put the rock in the damn hole. On topic, I see BI getting comfortable with this years team. As long as he gets PT with Kuz and Zo, and those three get the lions share of minutes this year, they can be deadly... this year.
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject:

VicXLakers wrote:
no need to watch the game then...


You're right, I should really watch the Lakers more.
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:32 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
defense wrote:
What's a reasonable number of minutes to have to consider it a good predictor of how effective those line ups are?

How does those numbers account for strength of opponents or something like whether the team is leading or trailing big? For instance if the Lakers are trailing by say 15 in the middle of the 4th quarter, its stands to reason that more often than not they will make a run before the game is over.


No, those stats don't account for that. I believe that RPM and BPM do, but tox would be a better person to ask.

I'd say that 150 or 200 minutes in a 2-man lineup is predictive, but that's just a guess.

Yeah, BPM tries to account for that with their term that scales by how good your team is. If a player puts up the same stats on the Warriors and the Bulls, his BPM on the Warriors will be better. The reasoning is that the opposing teams don't really try that hard against the Bulls, so those stats are easier to put up. Meanwhile, teams are always gearing up against the Warriors, so the stats are harder to put up. The scenario that defense mentioned (being down 15 = easier to have a positive +/-) *should* be accounted for by this term,

RPM doesn't factor in score differential (although that's actually a good idea for an RPM+ stat), so it wouldn't account for that. However, if you're down 15, you might be playing bench scrubs which bloat your +/-. RPM does account for that.

As for the question about number of minutes... who knows? No other way to say it. No one's ever (afaik) conducted any sort of rigorous statistical test to have an answer. 2 man stats are really noisy anyways, so you need to check against who the other three players are (as well as factor in whether they're garbage time minutes, crunch time minutes, against starters or bench players, etc.)
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:35 pm    Post subject:

€H£M£$TR¥ wrote:
RT, I respect analytics and its place in our sports, but I tend to side with Vic here. Everyone should be able to play with anyone. As a pro athelete, you gotta be able to read all of your teammates, know what you’re running, be on time with your cut and pass, and put the rock in the damn hole. On topic, I see BI getting comfortable with this years team. As long as he gets PT with Kuz and Zo, and those three get the lions share of minutes this year, they can be deadly... this year.


Sure, in an ideal world everyone should be able to play with anyone, but the reality is that some guys play better with some guys than others. Hell, compatibility is part of real life too.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:35 pm    Post subject:

VicXLakers wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
I think I'll watch the game and see for myself


Not like games are decided by one team outscoring the other or anything.


got any stats for that?


I think he meant stats for how many games one team has won when they have outscored the other. Intriguing question..
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:37 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.

To be clear, Harden's FTR is still way more impressive than Ingram's. 50% of Ingram's FGA are within 5 feet, where most FTs are drawn. Harden is at 29.5%. That means that when Harden does drive, he's getting fouled at much higher rates than when Ingram does drive. In other words, Harden's FTR is deflated because he shoots so many 3s where he doesn't get fouled much (especially post-rule change), and yet it's still higher than BI's.

(You do get fouled outside of 5 feet as well so it's a little bit murkier than what I stated above, but by and large it's true.)

This isn't a diss on Ingram btw. Harden is unreal at getting to the line.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:39 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
12 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Here are the Net Ratings of Ingram's 2-Man Lineups

Ingram + Caruso..........+39.5 (2 minutes)
Ingram + Ennis............+32.4 (16 minutes)
Ingram + Lopez..............-0.8 (491 minutes)
Ingram + KCP.................-4.1 (603 minutes)
Ingram + Randle.............-4.3 (232 minutes)
Ingram + Ball.................-5.2 (616 minutes)
Ingram + Clarkson..........-6.9 (231 minutes)
Ingram + Kuzma.............-7.6 (420 minutes)
Ingram + Bogut..............-8.1 (46 minutes)
Ingram + Nance..............-9.2 (269 minutes)
Ingram + Brewer...........-13.8 (80 minutes)
Ingram + Hart..............-15.2 (65 minutes)
Ingram + Deng.............-26.8 (13 minutes)
Ingram + Zubac............-55.5 (5 minutes)
Ingram + Blue.............-143.4 (2 minutes)


Would you please be so kind and put this in English?
I'm not the sharpest crayon when it comes to +/-
I mean, I know the obvious. But I'm sure there's a lot more to this than meets the eye.


1) This is how well the team plays when Ingram is on the court with other guys, per 100 possessions. The average Laker game has about 103 possessions in it, so this is roughly how much they outscore the other team over the course of a game when Ingram + the other guy is on the court.

2) Above all else, these sort of stats have a lot of noise in them, meaning that it's unwise to draw definitive conclusions. I consider them clues, not a smoking gun.

3) The biggest thing that stands out to me is that of the guys who get minutes, the team plays the best when Ingram & Lopez are paired together. This makes sense to me. They've had nice chemistry in pick & pops, and for as inconsistent as he's been, Lopez provides a scoring threat down low.

4) I'm surprised that his numbers w/Kuzma haven't been good, for similar reasons of having a second scorer next to him. My best guess is that Kuzma really thrives on ball movement, and ball movement reduces when Ingram's on the court.


Lonzo-Pope-Ingram-Kuzma-Lopez has a 217 minute sample size (largest of any lineup) and a -2.8 net rating. For an 8-15 team that gets outscored by around 4 points per game, -2.8 net rating should be about what you expect.

The 2nd largest sample size in lineups that include Ingram and Kuzma is the Lonzo-Pope-Ingram-Kuzma-Randle lineup, which of course has a great net rating, though on a small sample size of 52 minutes.

When you throw Clarkson at PG, the Ingram/Kuzma numbers start to get ugly, with various lineups with tiny sample sizes.

Ingram and Kuzma seem to play just fine together imo. 2 man lineup data in a 5 man sport makes oversimplification very easy to do.


Last edited by dao on Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:40 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.

To be clear, Harden's FTR is still way more impressive than Ingram's. 50% of Ingram's FGA are within 5 feet, where most FTs are drawn. Harden is at 29.5%. That means that when Harden does drive, he's getting fouled at much higher rates than when Ingram does drive. In other words, Harden's FTR is deflated because he shoots so many 3s where he doesn't get fouled much (especially post-rule change), and yet it's still higher than BI's.

(You do get fouled outside of 5 feet as well so it's a little bit murkier than what I stated above, but by and large it's true.)

This isn't a diss on Ingram btw. Harden is unreal at getting to the line.


Is "unreal" code for flopper?
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject:

defense wrote:
tox wrote:
epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.

To be clear, Harden's FTR is still way more impressive than Ingram's. 50% of Ingram's FGA are within 5 feet, where most FTs are drawn. Harden is at 29.5%. That means that when Harden does drive, he's getting fouled at much higher rates than when Ingram does drive. In other words, Harden's FTR is deflated because he shoots so many 3s where he doesn't get fouled much (especially post-rule change), and yet it's still higher than BI's.

(You do get fouled outside of 5 feet as well so it's a little bit murkier than what I stated above, but by and large it's true.)

This isn't a diss on Ingram btw. Harden is unreal at getting to the line.


Is "unreal" code for flopper?

lol. Whatever you want to call it, his ability to get to the line is unparalleled. Not saying I like watching his game because of it.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:53 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
12 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Here are the Net Ratings of Ingram's 2-Man Lineups

Ingram + Caruso..........+39.5 (2 minutes)
Ingram + Ennis............+32.4 (16 minutes)
Ingram + Lopez..............-0.8 (491 minutes)
Ingram + KCP.................-4.1 (603 minutes)
Ingram + Randle.............-4.3 (232 minutes)
Ingram + Ball.................-5.2 (616 minutes)
Ingram + Clarkson..........-6.9 (231 minutes)
Ingram + Kuzma.............-7.6 (420 minutes)
Ingram + Bogut..............-8.1 (46 minutes)
Ingram + Nance..............-9.2 (269 minutes)
Ingram + Brewer...........-13.8 (80 minutes)
Ingram + Hart..............-15.2 (65 minutes)
Ingram + Deng.............-26.8 (13 minutes)
Ingram + Zubac............-55.5 (5 minutes)
Ingram + Blue.............-143.4 (2 minutes)


Would you please be so kind and put this in English?
I'm not the sharpest crayon when it comes to +/-
I mean, I know the obvious. But I'm sure there's a lot more to this than meets the eye.


1) This is how well the team plays when Ingram is on the court with other guys, per 100 possessions. The average Laker game has about 103 possessions in it, so this is roughly how much they outscore the other team over the course of a game when Ingram + the other guy is on the court.

2) Above all else, these sort of stats have a lot of noise in them, meaning that it's unwise to draw definitive conclusions. I consider them clues, not a smoking gun.

3) The biggest thing that stands out to me is that of the guys who get minutes, the team plays the best when Ingram & Lopez are paired together. This makes sense to me. They've had nice chemistry in pick & pops, and for as inconsistent as he's been, Lopez provides a scoring threat down low.

4) I'm surprised that his numbers w/Kuzma haven't been good, for similar reasons of having a second scorer next to him. My best guess is that Kuzma really thrives on ball movement, and ball movement reduces when Ingram's on the court.


Lonzo-Pope-Ingram-Kuzma-Lopez has a 217 minute sample size (largest of any lineup) and a -2.8 net rating. For an 8-15 team that gets outscored by around 4 points per game, -2.8 net rating should be about what you expect.

The 2nd largest sample size in lineups that include Ingram and Kuzma is the Lonzo-Pope-Ingram-Kuzma-Randle lineup, which of course has a great net rating, though on a small sample size of 52 minutes.

When you throw Clarkson at PG, the Ingram/Kuzma numbers start to get ugly, with various lineups with tiny sample sizes.

Ingram and Kuzma seem to play just fine together imo. 2 man lineup data in a 5 man sport makes oversimplification very easy to do.


And all of that factors into the overall number, which means that other lineups with them have been really, really bad. That doesn't mean they can't play together, or that there aren't other factors that have caused them to be bad, but they've been bad in totality.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:34 pm    Post subject:

(bleep) dominating!
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:55 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
defense wrote:
tox wrote:
epak wrote:
Per 36:

Year 1: 11.7 pts, 5 rebs, 2.6 asst, 40% fg, 29% 3pt, 62% ft
Year 2: 17.1 pts, 5.8 rebs, 3.1 asst, 46% fg, 30% 3pt, 68% ft

That's pretty good. The thing that I thought would push him over to the Magic Johnson expectation was an increase in ftr. He's at .405 (5.6 fta per 36) compared to .312 (3.4 fta per 36) last year.

Just as a barometer, James Harden has a ftr of .43 this year; has been over .500 the last 7 years. I think the league cracking down on BS foul calls at the 3 point line is dropping his attempts.

To be clear, Harden's FTR is still way more impressive than Ingram's. 50% of Ingram's FGA are within 5 feet, where most FTs are drawn. Harden is at 29.5%. That means that when Harden does drive, he's getting fouled at much higher rates than when Ingram does drive. In other words, Harden's FTR is deflated because he shoots so many 3s where he doesn't get fouled much (especially post-rule change), and yet it's still higher than BI's.

(You do get fouled outside of 5 feet as well so it's a little bit murkier than what I stated above, but by and large it's true.)

This isn't a diss on Ingram btw. Harden is unreal at getting to the line.


Is "unreal" code for flopper?

lol. Whatever you want to call it, his ability to get to the line is unparalleled. Not saying I like watching his game because of it.


For a 20 year old and second year player being mentioned with who I thought should’ve been MVP last season and most likely to be MVP this year is very impressive. Right now what’s most important is Ingram and Lonzo’s individual improvements and monthly splits which I will post up when we have a bit more sample size as I did last season for BI. Being at least average players which they aren’t right now is what’s most important, and it’s on the coaching staff to develop them into that while showing our FA targets how they fit into the puzzle. RPM, BPM, PER etc will start to matter more in two years when they reach Kuzma’s age.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:41 pm    Post subject:

He's ball-stopping a bit, but overall he's playing better than his stat line indicates, even after that hot 1st quarter.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:46 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
He's ball-stopping a bit, but overall he's playing better than his stat line indicates, even after that hot 1st quarter.


Would look much better if he didn't miss 4 FTs sigh
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:00 pm    Post subject:

It's time he start working on counters while driving..
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:08 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
It's time he start working on counters while driving..


For now, that's kicking it out on more of his drives. Hopefully in the future it's a pull-up jumper.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:12 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
It's time he start working on counters while driving..


For now, that's kicking it out on more of his drives. Hopefully in the future it's a pull-up jumper.


His hesitation move allows for a very natural pull-up off of it. Kobe used to do it off that hesitation all the time, Ingram even did a couple times last year. It'd be a great kind of counter for him
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:17 pm    Post subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhpCIgIm45k in fact, he did do it right here. It's the same footwork as the hesitation, the 1-2step, aka the "hang hesitation" where you can pull-up on the hang, or you can burst/drive.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:20 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
It's time he start working on counters while driving..


For now, that's kicking it out on more of his drives. Hopefully in the future it's a pull-up jumper.


Agreed.. Teams seem to have trouble adjusting initially but they eventually do a better job of guarding him after the first quarter.

Might see his production come to a halt if he doesn't work on those adjustments now.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
It's time he start working on counters while driving..


For now, that's kicking it out on more of his drives. Hopefully in the future it's a pull-up jumper.


His hesitation move allows for a very natural pull-up off of it. Kobe used to do it off that hesitation all the time, Ingram even did a couple times last year. It'd be a great kind of counter for him


That works too.. he doesn't seem to have the same amount of confidence in his mid range J.. I guess he's still adjusting to the change in form.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:40 pm    Post subject:

ONIONS!!! making me a believer!
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