The JULIUS RANDLE Thread
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PRLakeShow
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:35 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
epak wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Keep Jules. Seeing him battle guys like zbo and boogie and not backing down? Love it. Need someone with that FU toughness.


Leaning towards the Julius over Cousins (if possible) scenario?
Oh nvm, it's julius AND Cousins.


Good lord. Imagine rebounding against these two. Bash brothers.


Cousins loves Julius. Refers to him as a little brother. Bash brothers indeed.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:44 pm    Post subject:

Roon wrote:
Fortysixn2 wrote:
TheBlackMamba wrote:
Fortysixn2 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
To the Randle supporters, do you see a significant difference between Julius and Kenneth Faried?

Both have similar play styles and Kenneth’s career metrics are superior and their overall numbers are very similar. Both shoot about the same, Julius passes more and turns the ball over more, other than that Faried is more productive almost down the line. Do you guys also believe that Faried is good and should be starting? Would you trade Julius for Faried straight up? Why do you think Faried has been benched?

To me, almost exact same player but Faried always gives 100%...skill set is almost identical, but Faried is better.

Randlites....your thoughts?


Significant differences.

1. You can switch Randle to PGs/Wings. You can't with Faried.
2. 3pt. range.
3. Playmaking. Faried dribbles to finish, not to set up teammates.

Faried is basically Larry Nance Jr in Randle's body.


Um, Larry is better than Randle too....


Dude, you just used a terrible stats comparison with Faried that you got called out on. Stop while you're ahead, man...


Lol, I used career averages....you guys are crazy. Enjoy your boy Randle why you can.


Using your same exact per 100 criteria to conclude Faried > Jules would also show that Jules >>> Larry.
Per 100

JUR: 22.3 Pts, 16rbs, 4.5 ast, 1.1 stl. .9 blk, 3.8 tov 70.6 ft%
LNJ: 15.4 Pts, 12.8rbs, 2.7ast, 2.6 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.8 tov .681 ft%

I'll add the FTA
JUR: 6.7
LNJ: 2.8

Does that prove something? I'll take 6.9 pts, 3.2rbs 2.8 ast with an additional 2 turnovers over 1.5 stl, and .2 blocks

Like I said before. Faried only has a .6pt, .5rbs, .8blcks, -1.1tov advantage over Randle

Or do those stats only work one way?


You left out the Box Score metrics because they didn’t support your narrative. This is pointless, this thread will be on page 5 soon..right above carlos boozer, Jordan hill and Ryan kelly. Enjoy!
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:53 pm    Post subject:

Fortysixn2 wrote:
Lol, I used career averages....you guys are crazy.


You used career averages when one of those guys was as good as he was going to get as a rookie and has never improved over his career... and the other guy is much better in year 2 and 3 than he was as a rookie so that rookie year pulls down his averages. You know exactly what you did, and it's been pointed out.
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Roon
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:13 pm    Post subject:

Fortysixn2 wrote:
Roon wrote:
Fortysixn2 wrote:
TheBlackMamba wrote:
Fortysixn2 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
To the Randle supporters, do you see a significant difference between Julius and Kenneth Faried?

Both have similar play styles and Kenneth’s career metrics are superior and their overall numbers are very similar. Both shoot about the same, Julius passes more and turns the ball over more, other than that Faried is more productive almost down the line. Do you guys also believe that Faried is good and should be starting? Would you trade Julius for Faried straight up? Why do you think Faried has been benched?

To me, almost exact same player but Faried always gives 100%...skill set is almost identical, but Faried is better.

Randlites....your thoughts?


Significant differences.

1. You can switch Randle to PGs/Wings. You can't with Faried.
2. 3pt. range.
3. Playmaking. Faried dribbles to finish, not to set up teammates.

Faried is basically Larry Nance Jr in Randle's body.


Um, Larry is better than Randle too....


Dude, you just used a terrible stats comparison with Faried that you got called out on. Stop while you're ahead, man...


Lol, I used career averages....you guys are crazy. Enjoy your boy Randle why you can.


Using your same exact per 100 criteria to conclude Faried > Jules would also show that Jules >>> Larry.
Per 100

JUR: 22.3 Pts, 16rbs, 4.5 ast, 1.1 stl. .9 blk, 3.8 tov 70.6 ft%
LNJ: 15.4 Pts, 12.8rbs, 2.7ast, 2.6 stl, 1.1 blk, 1.8 tov .681 ft%

I'll add the FTA
JUR: 6.7
LNJ: 2.8

Does that prove something? I'll take 6.9 pts, 3.2rbs 2.8 ast with an additional 2 turnovers over 1.5 stl, and .2 blocks

Like I said before. Faried only has a .6pt, .5rbs, .8blcks, -1.1tov advantage over Randle

Or do those stats only work one way?


You left out the Box Score metrics because they didn’t support your narrative. This is pointless, this thread will be on page 5 soon..right above carlos boozer, Jordan hill and Ryan kelly. Enjoy!


I'm not going to use a stat I don't understand clearly, maybe you can explain it to me.

The way you specifically asked Randle supporters opinions and then dismissed said opinions with such low effort condescension is frankly pathetic. I hope you aren't so disingenuous in your other life.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:25 pm    Post subject:

PRLakeShow wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
epak wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Keep Jules. Seeing him battle guys like zbo and boogie and not backing down? Love it. Need someone with that FU toughness.


Leaning towards the Julius over Cousins (if possible) scenario?
Oh nvm, it's julius AND Cousins.


Good lord. Imagine rebounding against these two. Bash brothers.


Cousins loves Julius. Refers to him as a little brother. Bash brothers indeed.


I wonder if them being so close and the way in which Randle is currently being treated would have any bearing on Cousins being willing to sign here.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:51 pm    Post subject:

Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:00 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


+1
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kobeslaker
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:06 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


As a backup PF, LNJ is ok. I don't think he's a starter and he can't play center too.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:26 am    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


Word.

Larry Nance Jr. plays winning basketball (I'm not saying that Randle doesn't)
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:10 am    Post subject:

J.C. Smith wrote:
Fortysixn2 wrote:
Lol, I used career averages....you guys are crazy.


You used career averages when one of those guys was as good as he was going to get as a rookie and has never improved over his career... and the other guy is much better in year 2 and 3 than he was as a rookie so that rookie year pulls down his averages. You know exactly what you did, and it's been pointed out.


yep
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:29 am    Post subject:

Basketball Reference‏Verified account
@bball_ref

20+ points and 10+ rebounds per 36 MP this year, age 24 or under (750+ MP):
Anthony Davis
Karl-Anthony Towns
Joel Embiid
Julius Randle
http://bkref.com/tiny/ExRDr

Quote:
He's(Julius Randle) also got a higher eFG% and TS% than Embiid while turning the ball over less.

Quote:
Defenders collapse when he penetrates opening up shooters on the perimeter.
The problem is we’re lacking shooters to be dished to. And I feel like this fan base ignores every one of his clutch baseline passes and instead focuses on the shots he takes and he’s still shooting an eFG% of .735 at the rim when he’s not passing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/lakers/comments/7pi2tg/20_pts10_reb_per_36_mp_this_year_age_24_or_under/
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:21 am    Post subject:

PRLakeShow wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
epak wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Keep Jules. Seeing him battle guys like zbo and boogie and not backing down? Love it. Need someone with that FU toughness.


Leaning towards the Julius over Cousins (if possible) scenario?
Oh nvm, it's julius AND Cousins.


Good lord. Imagine rebounding against these two. Bash brothers.


Cousins loves Julius. Refers to him as a little brother. Bash brothers indeed.


Lonzo/BI/PG13 are all kind of soft spoken, chill guys. Would need a little edge and Jules/Boogie would give you that in spades. Lots of toughness on the boards too.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:27 am    Post subject:

It's good we are getting Julius in with the starters with extended minutes

1) He deserves it....definately over Nance and while Kuzma is awesome still a rookie.

2) If he plays great we may not move him and continue to build around the young nucleus


3) If he plays great, but he's just not in our long term plans another team is likely to want him and the Lakers will net back whatever type of asset they value over jules


Win all around really
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:22 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


Thanks for the breakdown, I wouldn't have used those stats, except I wanted to show inconsistency within two related arguments.

Argument A:

Premise 1:
Stats X, Y, and Z show one player is better than another
Premise 2:
Faried has better Stats X, Y, Z than Randle
Conclusion:
Faried > Randle

Argument B:
Premise 1:
Stats X, Y, and Z show one player is better than another
Premise 2:
Randle has much better Stats X, Y, Z than Nance
Conclusion:
Nance >> Randle?

Either Premise 1 is false or Conclusion B is false. Or both. Either way at least one of the arguments is invalid.

You're arguing it's premise 1 that's false, and I would agree with you. Last year it would have been impossible, but this year if I wanted to statistically prove that Randle is more effective player than Nance I'd have to go towards lineup data and maybe on and off numbers.

Ultimately the best argument for Randle at the moment, in my opinion, is that you can show both continual and significant growth from his rookie year to now, through stats and film, and with his skill set, work ethic, and athleticism, at a fresh 23, he both has shown a penchant for growth, as well as plenty of room to continue that growth.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:31 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


LNJ is a good role player that's his ceiling and floor. He is who he is. His role is limited but he is great at his role. Julius can do many more things on the court and is still developing and has a higher ceiling because of his versatile skillset.

Randle is the better player but Nance is more efficient at his role which is limited.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:37 pm    Post subject:

kobeslaker wrote:
tox wrote:
Re: Nance vs Randle: So it's easy to underestimate the value of, say, more blocks/steals & fewer turnovers.

RPM has Nance at +0.89 and Randle at +0.03. But I would also point out last year Nance was at +0.90 and Randle was at -1.82. The way RPM works is that previous years' values are used to sort of "anchor" the initial guess of where a player is (think of it as literally factoring in a potential regression to the mean).

Nevertheless, statistically there is definitely a strong case that LNJ is the more effective player, and just looking at "more points and rebounds and assists" is kind of a reductive way of looking at stats which will lead you to some weird conclusions. You can argue Randle is being held down by his prior but so far the evidence points that, at least statistically, Nance has been better. (Nance's BPM is on another level.)

I don't think this makes Randle bad. I think people just have a tendency to underrate Nance. Does anyone realize how elite his STL% is? Among all forwards and centers, only Nance, Covington, and PG13 have STL% > 2.5%. Nance is actually at 3.0%, only PG13 gets higher than that.
http://bkref.com/tiny/98jXP
Of course, PG and Covington are actually wings. In terms of pure big men, he's a total outlier:
http://bkref.com/tiny/ws3KI
(For some reason, Nance is listed as a forward and not a forward-center.)

I think Randle's been good and that one poster is totally off base about Randle this season, but Nance is no slouch himself.


As a backup PF, LNJ is ok. I don't think he's a starter and he can't play center too.


Great post. Just want to add a little more to what you've already stated well.

Straight statistical comparisons can come up short sometimes because many winning plays aren't in a traditional box score. Deflections, screen setting, rotating on defense, closeouts, diving for loose balls, etc. are not going to show up on bbref. But they have major impacts on the game as they either help the team score or prevent the other team from doing so.

It's not a coincidence that Nance's ORtg is 122 and DRtg is 104 when you combine all of the above with the fact that he's an efficient shooter (60.9% TS) and seldom turns the ball over (2.1 per 100 possessions). Nance is never going to make an All-Star Game, but he knows his role and plays it well. Those are the exact types of players you need on a championship team.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:50 pm    Post subject:

Here's the transcription of a conversation that I had with Luke today about Julius. link
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:58 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Here's the transcription of a conversation that I had with Luke today about Julius. link


Seems to be a recurring theme. Less freestyle more organization and understanding responsibilities. I also see how players would get upset when they watch say kcp gamble all the time defensively and get no blow back as far as i know.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:21 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Here's the transcription of a conversation that I had with Luke today about Julius. link

It's interesting that they actually felt that, by bringing him off the bench, Randle could be more himself and play "free". But in the starting lineup, it's more about responsibility and Randle is still killing it.

If I'm the FO, i take note that Randle has adjusted to both situations. I was highly skeptical and pleasantly surprised.

I was livid about his defense at the 5 spot when he started games there... but after Lopez coming in and playing 5 while Randle moving to 4... he's not a 5. That simple. Very good 4 though.

It's a tough call man. Kuzma and Randle are both starting material players and both play the same position. Will they be willing to share the spot? I don't know.

All our f-in talent is at one f-in position... Randle, Kuzma and LNJ... the rest is so paper thin in terms of depth (if depth at all). Frustrating. I don't like losing talent like that.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:23 pm    Post subject:

JR will be a pain to the Lakers for years to come if they trade him. He's going to be a good pair with Cousins. Trade Nance!
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:14 pm    Post subject:

silkwilkes wrote:
I was livid about his defense at the 5 spot when he started games there... but after Lopez coming in and playing 5 while Randle moving to 4... he's not a 5. That simple. Very good 4 though.


Randle at the 5 is odd defensively, he's very effective there, but he's not really a rim protector. He's done a lot better job shot blocking this season than he has in the past but he doesn't have great length and his hops aren't enough to overcome that. He has improved a ton in that regard though, from 1% block percentage in year 1, to 1.4% last year, to 2.5% this year and is better than Nance (1.4%) in that regard he's a far cry from Lopez (5.3%). The Lakers have been at their best with him at center though, oddly enough mainly because he is a challenge for opposing centers offensively.

Comparison of the Lakers Centers when playing at that position this season vs. what opposing centers do. Numbers below are per 48 minutes at center:

Lopez: +3.5 points, -4.9 rebounds, -3.9 PER, opposing centers shot 59.6% eFG, 46% win percentage (14-16)
Randle: +6.3 points, +0.7 rebounds, +2.9 PER, opposing centers shot 50.6% eFG, 48% win percentage (19-20)
Nance: +0.5 points, +1.7 rebounds, +2.4 PER, opposing centers shoot 61.2% eFG, 33% win percentage (7-14)

So while he isn't anywhere near the rim protector that Lopez is, he's been effective in his own way. Though starting center Randle vs. bench center Randle was also used differently defensively. He's at his best defensively when he's switching onto smaller players and guarding the perimeter, and has also been pretty effective defending down low against in most cases this season, as well. His help defense has improved but isn't nearly as effective.
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Cutheon
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:29 pm    Post subject:

Julius spoke on behalf of the team to address the crowd, honoring MLK's legacy. You go Julius
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm    Post subject:

Cutheon wrote:
Julius spoke on behalf of the team to address the crowd, honoring MLK's legacy. You go Julius


Nice, I hope to catch the replay.
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BigBallerBrand
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:30 pm    Post subject:

Lmao JR only one not excited about Nance’s dunk
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bandiger
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:38 pm    Post subject:

Get you head out of your ASS JR
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