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The Juggernaut
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:15 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:

Tox, can you explain why WS/48 is a garbage stat? Also has ESPN released the formula for RPM?

For sure. So the reason PER is a bad stat is because some guy (Hollinger) basically assessed each box score stat some particular value. So he hand-crafted how much getting an assist improves your score, how much getting turnovers hurt your scores, etc. Now, this is problematic if Hollinger doesn't have a strong credibility in choosing stats (i.e. why should I trust Hollinger's assessment of how valuable a steal is?). But even if he were an agreed upon genius, he still would be unable to determine the underlying importance of each stat as well as a method that deduces it straight from the data. This happened prominently in computer vision.

WS/48 is hand-picked just like PER. I think its values are better-chosen than PER (WS/48 penalizes turnovers harder, which seems reasonable). It also incorporates explicitly how many wins a team has into its formula, so it might give you better results empirically. But it suffers from the same exact problem as the above.

I won't go into a discussion of RAPM and RPM unless you're interested, but they're derived a completely different way. BPM approximates RAPM with box score numbers, so it's easily the best box score stat even though I don't like some of its decisions (like scaling based on win percentage).


Thanks for the response. I'm always interested in expanding my knowledge of advanced stats.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:28 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
can you imagine a 43% 3 point shooter in PG13 joining that group?


Bro, he can do everything that KCP does, but with a ton more ball handling and on ball scoring, and fewer adventurous transition possessions. He slots in so perfectly into this team it ain't even funny.


No doubt. BUT WHO WILL GUARD THE "SG?????"



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tox
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:31 pm    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:
tox wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:

Tox, can you explain why WS/48 is a garbage stat? Also has ESPN released the formula for RPM?

For sure. So the reason PER is a bad stat is because some guy (Hollinger) basically assessed each box score stat some particular value. So he hand-crafted how much getting an assist improves your score, how much getting turnovers hurt your scores, etc. Now, this is problematic if Hollinger doesn't have a strong credibility in choosing stats (i.e. why should I trust Hollinger's assessment of how valuable a steal is?). But even if he were an agreed upon genius, he still would be unable to determine the underlying importance of each stat as well as a method that deduces it straight from the data. This happened prominently in computer vision.

WS/48 is hand-picked just like PER. I think its values are better-chosen than PER (WS/48 penalizes turnovers harder, which seems reasonable). It also incorporates explicitly how many wins a team has into its formula, so it might give you better results empirically. But it suffers from the same exact problem as the above.

I won't go into a discussion of RAPM and RPM unless you're interested, but they're derived a completely different way. BPM approximates RAPM with box score numbers, so it's easily the best box score stat even though I don't like some of its decisions (like scaling based on win percentage).


Thanks for the response. I'm always interested in expanding my knowledge of advanced stats.

I'll try to explain RAPM and RPM briefly then. Understanding how these stats work is best explained by showing how they're derived. RAPM takes every single possession in the NBA season and creates a giant dataset. Each line in that dataset looks something like this:

Zo KCP BI Randle Lopez Fox Hield Richardson ZBo WCS 3

The first five players are offensive; the second five players are defensive. The last line indicates, on that possession, how many points the offense scored.

Over the court of the entire season, there are millions of data points like the one above, and RAPM's goal is to find the offensive and defensive value of every single player in the NBA that will give the best predictions over the entire dataset above. It does this via a statistical method called regression.

It turns out the above method gives you unstable results, so there's an additional component where you basically assume each player is close to 0. RPM iterates on this by giving "better" (arguably) guesses than 0 -- it uses previous years' info, it uses box score stats, and it even uses height to make a first guess.

Finally, BPM was created by trying to approximate RAPM the best possible using box score stats, from data from 2004-2013. It's generally a decent stat, but at the extremes it gets ridiculous (Westbrook is routinely overrated). I think they should make a new BPM because the NBA has changed so much in recent years and I think it vastly overvalues rebounding.

(You'll note that none of the stats above are hand-made like PER or WS/48.)
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:36 pm    Post subject:

TheBlackMamba wrote:
With the right moves and continued development from the young core, we're a season or two away from being an extremely fun 50-win team reminiscent of the pre-Shaq/Kobe Lakers. At least until the next 9-game losing streak


That is what I have been saying and why I am not a fan of dealing away our youth at this point. Maybe wait until we see what we have.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.



VLF needed a new troll line for this thread now that OKC is backsliding to mediocrity again, as almost no one was biting on his "Why would he leave a championship contender in OKC for a bottom five team in LA ?"

Even less will bite on "Why would he leave a .500 team battling for the 8 seed in OKC to come to a promising Laker team full of young talent ?", so now we get made up defensive lapses against players he didn't match up against.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:37 pm    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.


He was against Lou and Wiggins and also Butler at times.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:40 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.


He was against Lou and Wiggins and also Butler at times.


So when Lou dropped 50 against the Warriors, does that mean the Warriors need a new "SG?"
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:41 pm    Post subject:

babyskyhook wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.



VLF needed a new troll line for this thread now that OKC is backsliding to mediocrity again, as almost no one was biting on his "Why would he leave a championship contender in OKC for a bottom five team in LA ?"

Even less will bite on "Why would he leave a .500 team battling for the 8 seed in OKC to come to a promising Laker team full of young talent ?", so now we get made up defensive lapses against players he didn't match up against.


Maybe you should watch some of these games. Who didn’t he match up against?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:42 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.


He was against Lou and Wiggins and also Butler at times.


So when Lou dropped 50 against the Warriors, does that mean the Warriors need a new "SG?"


I don’t know, you brought it up so you tell us.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:55 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
babyskyhook wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.



VLF needed a new troll line for this thread now that OKC is backsliding to mediocrity again, as almost no one was biting on his "Why would he leave a championship contender in OKC for a bottom five team in LA ?"

Even less will bite on "Why would he leave a .500 team battling for the 8 seed in OKC to come to a promising Laker team full of young talent ?", so now we get made up defensive lapses against players he didn't match up against.


Maybe you should watch some of these games. Who didn’t he match up against?



I watched enough of both games to say that your assertion was laughable.

Pick and rolls, off ball screens, cross-matches in transition all result in someone else guarding a player.

Every GM in the NBA would laugh at your statement, because every single GM would love to have him on their team. The appeal of PG is his defensive versatility and desire to play D, along with his offensive game.


I'd think you'd want PG on this team, as he's the perfect fit to help get us to the next level, and he's probably the one guy who's willing to come by himself.

If he's willing to come by himself, we may actually be able to dodge the Boogie torpedo this summer, which I know is something you and I both want.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:09 pm    Post subject:

That’s what I thought. And I would love to have PG here, but his and the Thunder defense has slipped recently. They were top 5 but are dropping. George has been part of that for whatever reason. I realize that posters here gloss over any deficiencies of players on other teams and magnify those of our own players, we are fans. But sometimes we need to look at what is happening.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:19 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.


He was against Lou and Wiggins and also Butler at times.


So when Lou dropped 50 against the Warriors, does that mean the Warriors need a new "SG?"


I don’t know, you brought it up so you tell us.


No. Your rationale is that Lou Will "lit" PG13 up (8-22, 26 points). BTW, Lou's January average was 33ppg, so OKC actually held him BELOW his average.

Well, then Lou "nuclear wasted" the Warriors up with 50 points on 16-27 shooting.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:57 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:
tox wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:

Tox, can you explain why WS/48 is a garbage stat? Also has ESPN released the formula for RPM?

For sure. So the reason PER is a bad stat is because some guy (Hollinger) basically assessed each box score stat some particular value. So he hand-crafted how much getting an assist improves your score, how much getting turnovers hurt your scores, etc. Now, this is problematic if Hollinger doesn't have a strong credibility in choosing stats (i.e. why should I trust Hollinger's assessment of how valuable a steal is?). But even if he were an agreed upon genius, he still would be unable to determine the underlying importance of each stat as well as a method that deduces it straight from the data. This happened prominently in computer vision.

WS/48 is hand-picked just like PER. I think its values are better-chosen than PER (WS/48 penalizes turnovers harder, which seems reasonable). It also incorporates explicitly how many wins a team has into its formula, so it might give you better results empirically. But it suffers from the same exact problem as the above.

I won't go into a discussion of RAPM and RPM unless you're interested, but they're derived a completely different way. BPM approximates RAPM with box score numbers, so it's easily the best box score stat even though I don't like some of its decisions (like scaling based on win percentage).


Thanks for the response. I'm always interested in expanding my knowledge of advanced stats.

I'll try to explain RAPM and RPM briefly then. Understanding how these stats work is best explained by showing how they're derived. RAPM takes every single possession in the NBA season and creates a giant dataset. Each line in that dataset looks something like this:

Zo KCP BI Randle Lopez Fox Hield Richardson ZBo WCS 3

The first five players are offensive; the second five players are defensive. The last line indicates, on that possession, how many points the offense scored.

Over the court of the entire season, there are millions of data points like the one above, and RAPM's goal is to find the offensive and defensive value of every single player in the NBA that will give the best predictions over the entire dataset above. It does this via a statistical method called regression.

It turns out the above method gives you unstable results, so there's an additional component where you basically assume each player is close to 0. RPM iterates on this by giving "better" (arguably) guesses than 0 -- it uses previous years' info, it uses box score stats, and it even uses height to make a first guess.

Finally, BPM was created by trying to approximate RAPM the best possible using box score stats, from data from 2004-2013. It's generally a decent stat, but at the extremes it gets ridiculous (Westbrook is routinely overrated). I think they should make a new BPM because the NBA has changed so much in recent years and I think it vastly overvalues rebounding.

(You'll note that none of the stats above are hand-made like PER or WS/48.)


Once again thanks for the explanations my man
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:13 pm    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:


Once again thanks for the explanations my man


Anytime
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:21 pm    Post subject:

ventura getting owned.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:57 pm    Post subject:

Liking the pull up mid range game of late. He's not plowing his way to the rim going right all the time any more. With his first step and his length that shot is undefendable.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:28 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
NBALakerLegends wrote:
PG13 is also 3x the defender that KCP is. Dude can switch 1-4, play the passing lanes and lock down some of the best perimeter players in the game.


You need to tell OKC that because he hasn’t been doing it lately. Sweet Lou lit him up as did Wiggins and Butler.


He wasn’t actually matched up against two of the three but ok.


He was against Lou and Wiggins and also Butler at times.


So when Lou dropped 50 against the Warriors, does that mean the Warriors need a new "SG?"


I don’t know, you brought it up so you tell us.


No. Your rationale is that Lou Will "lit" PG13 up (8-22, 26 points). BTW, Lou's January average was 33ppg, so OKC actually held him BELOW his average.

Well, then Lou "nuclear wasted" the Warriors up with 50 points on 16-27 shooting.


Well, not to mention the fact that Lou Williams plays a completely different position guarded by a completely different guy, and that Wiggins and Butler start at the same time so he'd have a lot of trouble guarding both guys.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:30 pm    Post subject:

Just dreaming about Lonzo/Pg13/BI defensively too. So much length and switching ability. Hopefully BI can continue with the jumper. Man. What a nice trio they would be.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:45 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Just dreaming about Lonzo/Pg13/BI defensively too. So much length and switching ability. Hopefully BI can continue with the jumper. Man. What a nice trio they would be.


Ball will probably average 10 assists per with PG, and an Ingram that has improved his shooting. Ingram will also average 5 to 6 assists per with Ball improving his shooting along with PG as a wingman.

We have a lot to look forward to next season.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:49 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Just dreaming about Lonzo/Pg13/BI defensively too. So much length and switching ability. Hopefully BI can continue with the jumper. Man. What a nice trio they would be.


Ball will probably average 10 assists per with PG, and an Ingram that has improved his shooting. Ingram will also average 5 to 6 assists per with Ball improving his shooting along with PG as a wingman.

We have a lot to look forward to next season.


Just imagine all that length on defense.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:55 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Just dreaming about Lonzo/Pg13/BI defensively too. So much length and switching ability. Hopefully BI can continue with the jumper. Man. What a nice trio they would be.


Ball will probably average 10 assists per with PG, and an Ingram that has improved his shooting. Ingram will also average 5 to 6 assists per with Ball improving his shooting along with PG as a wingman.

We have a lot to look forward to next season.


Just imagine all that length on defense.


I like Ball's height but.. I'm noticing guards are getting bigger in the modern era. I don't see Ball's height as much of an advantage. With that being said I'm glad he's not undersized. It helps when opposing teams try to get a switch I suppose, they won't be able to abuse him on the box.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:57 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Just dreaming about Lonzo/Pg13/BI defensively too. So much length and switching ability. Hopefully BI can continue with the jumper. Man. What a nice trio they would be.


Ball will probably average 10 assists per with PG, and an Ingram that has improved his shooting. Ingram will also average 5 to 6 assists per with Ball improving his shooting along with PG as a wingman.

We have a lot to look forward to next season.


Just imagine all that length on defense.



I've been thinking BI and PG on the wings for a year, but Lonzo's eye-opening defensive ability makes that vision look even better.

Add Lebron and keep Randle and you've got a closing 5 that would give the Ws fits on D.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:59 pm    Post subject:

^My closing 5 would be:

LeBron
Kuzma
Ingram
Hart
Lonzo
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:01 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
^My closing 5 would be:

LeBron
Kuzma
Ingram
Hart
Lonzo


Hart isn’t closing over Pg13.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:01 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
^My closing 5 would be:

LeBron
Kuzma
Ingram
Hart
Lonzo


Hart over PG? or in this scenario we don't acquire PG?
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