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BizLA Star Player
Joined: 22 Nov 2017 Posts: 2368
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Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:24 am Post subject: |
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Afrosho wrote: | RPM update:
KCP leads the team with 0.79 followed by Lopez (0.52), Julius (0.51) and Lonzo (0.30) thanks to his impressive DRPM (1.97).
Ingram keeps climbing, now at -1.47 (was -2.22 three weeks ago).
Kuzma now at -2.27 and last in DRPM at his position |
KCP has been pretty solid ever since the legal issues. He’s having a career year in terms of shooting.. |
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defense Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 39322
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Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:19 am Post subject: |
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RPM 3/25/2018
Nance RIP
Lonzo .91
Lopez .60
Randle 1.39
KCP .96
Clarkson RIP
Hart -1.17
Kuzma -1.67
Ingram -2.08
BPM 3/25/2018
Nance RIP
Lonzo 1.4
Randle 1.0
KCP 1.3
Lopez .5
Clarkson RIP
Hart -.5
Kuzma -1.2
Ingram -1.3
Win Shares 3/25/2018
Nance RIP
Randle 5.9
KCP 5.0
Kuzma 3.7
Clarkson RIP
Hart 2.5
Ingram 2.8
Lopez 3.2
Lonzo 1.6 |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:26 am Post subject: |
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Kuzma's made huge jump in RPM, which aligns with the tape in terms of him improving on the defensive end. |
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Freddie Buckets Star Player
Joined: 08 Oct 2007 Posts: 9131
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Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:28 am Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | Kuzma's made huge jump in RPM, which aligns with the tape in terms of him improving on the defensive end. |
still cant believe we got him at 27. i cant wait to see how he looks after an entire off season of nba training and coaching. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:42 am Post subject: |
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Here's the young core by various one-number metrics this season. The PIPM database seems to be down right now but once that's up I'll add that too.
RPM
1) Lonzo Ball................+0.89
2) Julius Randle............+0.65
3) Josh Hart..................-0.92
4) Kyle Kuzma...............-1.65
5) Brandon Ingram.........-1.99
BPM
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.6
2) Julius Randle..............+0.8
3) Josh Hart....................-0.4
4) Brandon Ingram...........-1.3
5) Kyle Kuzma.................-1.4
On Court/Off Court (Net Rating)
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.8
2) Julius Randle................0.0
3) Josh Hart....................-0.8
4) Kyle Kuzma.................-1.1
5) Brandon Ingram...........-2.7
VORP
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.6
2) Julius Randle..............+1.5
3) Josh Hart...................+0.6
4) Kyle Kuzma................+0.4
5) Brandon Ingram..........+0.3
PIPM
1) Lonzo Ball.................+1.89
2) Julius Randle..............-0.83
3) Josh Hart...................-0.99
4) Brandon Ingram..........-1.31
5) Kyle Kuzma................-1.88
Wins Added
1) Lonzo Ball.................+5.06
2) Julius Randle.............+2.17
3) Brandon Ingram........+1.34
4) Josh Hart..................+1.25
5) Kyle Kuzma...............+0.73
Last edited by GoldenThroat on Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:52 am; edited 1 time in total |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:45 am Post subject: |
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Wow. The advanced stats gods favor the Ball. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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LakerSD Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Nov 2016 Posts: 23731
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:49 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Wow. The advanced stats gods favor the Ball. |
Bunch of non-basketball playing nerds. #eyetest
That Ball boy is probably a cheat code if he could hit a shot consistently and finish at the rim. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:53 am Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | Here's the young core by various one-number metrics this season. The PIPM database seems to be down right now but once that's up I'll add that too.
RPM
1) Lonzo Ball................+0.89
2) Julius Randle............+0.65
3) Josh Hart..................-0.92
4) Kyle Kuzma...............-1.65
5) Brandon Ingram.........-1.99
BPM
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.6
2) Julius Randle..............+0.8
3) Josh Hart....................-0.4
4) Brandon Ingram...........-1.3
5) Kyle Kuzma.................-1.4
On Court/Off Court (Net Rating)
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.8
2) Julius Randle................0.0
3) Josh Hart....................-0.8
4) Kyle Kuzma.................-1.1
5) Brandon Ingram...........-2.7
VORP
1) Lonzo Ball..................+1.6
2) Julius Randle..............+1.5
3) Josh Hart...................+0.6
4) Kyle Kuzma................+0.4
5) Brandon Ingram..........+0.3
PIPM
1) Lonzo Ball.................+1.89
2) Julius Randle..............-0.83
3) Josh Hart...................-0.99
4) Brandon Ingram..........-1.31
5) Kyle Kuzma................-1.88
Wins Added
1) Lonzo Ball.................+5.06
2) Julius Randle.............+2.17
3) Brandon Ingram........+1.34
4) Josh Hart..................+1.25
5) Kyle Kuzma...............+0.73 |
Updated w/PIPM and Wins Added. |
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yinoma2001 Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Posts: 119487
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:54 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, this is Lonzo at year 1, hobbled, broken jumper. Future looks amazing. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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venturalakersfan Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001 Posts: 144432 Location: The Gold Coast
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:58 am Post subject: |
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It might be worth hanging onto Ball and Randle _________________ RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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defense Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 39322
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:18 am Post subject: |
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yinoma2001 wrote: | Wow. The advanced stats gods favor the Ball. |
So does the eye test if you can get past his bad shooting percentages |
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defense Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jan 2010 Posts: 39322
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:21 am Post subject: |
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I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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BizLA Star Player
Joined: 22 Nov 2017 Posts: 2368
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:35 am Post subject: |
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defense wrote: | I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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Conclusion- We traded our best player. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:41 am Post subject: |
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defense wrote: | I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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These stats always overvalue low usage, defensive bigs. |
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BigGameHames Star Player
Joined: 24 May 2015 Posts: 7982
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:51 am Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | defense wrote: | I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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These stats always overvalue low usage, defensive bigs. |
Not low usage defensive guards? Seems like Lonzo gets a bump too. I love him but did not think every number would rank him our best player. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:05 am Post subject: |
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BigGameHames wrote: | GoldenThroat wrote: | defense wrote: | I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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These stats always overvalue low usage, defensive bigs. |
Not low usage defensive guards? Seems like Lonzo gets a bump too. I love him but did not think every number would rank him our best player. |
That's an interesting question. A VERY quick glance at BPM, for example, doesn't seem to indicate that, but again, that's just a glance.
Here's Lonzo compared to another low usage, defensive guard, who's also a rookie.
RPM
Lonzo Ball........+1.89
Frank Ntilikina...-3.14
BPM
Lonzo Ball........+1.6
Frank Ntilikina...-4.2
VORP
Lonzo Ball........+1.6
Frank Ntilikina...-0.9
PIPM
Lonzo Ball........+1.89
Frank Ntilikina...-2.96
Wins Added
Lonzo Ball........+5.06
Frank Ntilikina...-0.71
My observation about low usage, defensive bigs is anecdotal...I could certainly be wrong. But most of the time when I see a guy who's a little out of place in these numbers, he fits that description. Part of that is because a lot of times those guys only shoot when they have a dunk or a wide open shot at the rim, so their TS% is really high. Much harder for guards to get those types of shots with any volume at all, so low usage guards don't necessarily have sky-high TS%'s the way that low usage bigs do.
All of that said, Nance is really good, and underrated by fans. I just think he's a little overrated by the analytics. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:07 am Post subject: |
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To put it simply, Lonzo stuffs the stat sheet in a number of categories and his team plays better when he's on the court. If a player can do those 2 things, stats like these are usually gonna love them. |
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Aeneas Hunter Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jul 2005 Posts: 31763
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:18 am Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | Here's Lonzo compared to another low usage, defensive guard, who's also a rookie.
RPM
Lonzo Ball........+1.89 (this is a typo -- it is actually +0.89)
Frank Ntilikina...-3.14 |
Ball's components are -1.34/+2.23.
Frank Ntilikina's components are -3.00/-0.14.
The conclusion I would suggest is that it is hard for a guard to generate the sort of defensive impact that can be generated by a big man, at least as measured by RPM. Rookie guards will tend to have a lot of holes in their game offensively. While a big man may be able to cover the offensive problems with defense, it is hard for a rookie guard to do this.
Also, just to keep this in perspective, Ball is 21st among PGs in RPM. He isn't close to the leaders. |
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anpherknee Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Mar 2014 Posts: 16933
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:19 am Post subject: |
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MAI SAHN |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:28 am Post subject: |
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Aeneas Hunter wrote: | GoldenThroat wrote: | Here's Lonzo compared to another low usage, defensive guard, who's also a rookie.
RPM
Lonzo Ball........+1.89 (this is a typo -- it is actually +0.89)
Frank Ntilikina...-3.14 |
Ball's components are -1.34/+2.23.
Frank Ntilikina's components are -3.00/-0.14.
The conclusion I would suggest is that it is hard for a guard to generate the sort of defensive impact that can be generated by a big man, at least as measured by RPM. Rookie guards will tend to have a lot of holes in their game offensively. While a big man may be able to cover the offensive problems with defense, it is hard for a rookie guard to do this.
Also, just to keep this in perspective, Ball is 21st among PGs in RPM. He isn't close to the leaders. |
Good catch on the typo. It was correct the first time I posted it, but his PIPM is +1.89 and I apparently confused them the second time around.
Agreed that most guards can't generate the same level of defensive impact, which is why Lonzo's ability to do so has been remarkable, and along with bigs taking higher percentage shots, you're gonna have a discrepancy between low-usage bigs and low-usage guards. |
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Baron Von Humongous Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jul 2015 Posts: 32979
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:01 am Post subject: |
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BigGameHames wrote: | GoldenThroat wrote: | defense wrote: | I think Hart might be higher in all stats if he had played more consistently earlier in the season.
Side Note: Nance would be leading in just about everything if he was still here, so draw your conclusions carefully.
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These stats always overvalue low usage, defensive bigs. |
Not low usage defensive guards? Seems like Lonzo gets a bump too. I love him but did not think every number would rank him our best player. |
The potential "bias" in the data is the use of box score priors in RPM to modify RAPM data, which is a player's raw on/off data adjusted to account for teammates and opponents when said player is on the floor. That box score metric - a proprietary equation likely similar to BPM - is a prior, as are past performance/experience (rookies are dinged out of the gate), height on defense, and possibly others.
Lonzo's gaudy DBPM and DRPM numbers are comparable and reflect his impressive defensive rebounding, block, and steal rates for his position, and are impacted positively by his impressive ATR. The box score data may somewhat overstate his overall defensive impact, but we know that generally the team has been better defensively with Lonzo on the floor (being backed up by JC, IT, and Ennis certainly help him "look" better by RAPM) and we can safely intuit the value in ending the other team's possession - steals, blocks, defensive boards - and in limiting opponents' easy possessions by taking care of the ball (one of the reasons Chris Paul is a DRPM darling despite his diminutive stature). And even though his shooting drags down his overall offensive efficiency, Lonzo uses very few possessions to hunt his own shot, which somewhat mitigates his negative offensive impact. That makes sense, right? That it's better to be a low usage low efficiency player like Lonzo than a high usage low efficiency player like DLo or DSJ?
So overall, is that RPM overvaluing Lonzo? Are those box score priors introducing subjective bias that overvalues a few things that Lonzo does better than other point guards while not dinging him enough for his glaring weaknesses? Or does RPM more accurately reflect what makes for impactful basketball and Lonzo's game conforms to that? |
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Aeneas Hunter Retired Number
Joined: 12 Jul 2005 Posts: 31763
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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Baron Von Humongous wrote: | So overall, is that RPM overvaluing Lonzo? Are those box score priors introducing subjective bias that overvalues a few things that Lonzo does better than other point guards while not dinging him enough for his glaring weaknesses? Or does RPM more accurately reflect what makes for impactful basketball and Lonzo's game conforms to that? |
Those are all fair questions. Every metric has its own set of strengths and weaknesses, as well as its own implicit or explicit biases and assumptions. In this case, all of the modern metrics come to more or less the same conclusion. Maybe one day metrics will advance to the point where we have a single definitive measure, though I’m not holding my breath. Until that happens, we have the statistical equivalent of the wisdom of the crowd.
I had never heard of PIPM until GT cited it. I looked it up. It looks like a good methodology, but I’m not enough of a stat geek to pass judgment. |
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BigGameHames Star Player
Joined: 24 May 2015 Posts: 7982
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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Aeneas Hunter wrote: | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | So overall, is that RPM overvaluing Lonzo? Are those box score priors introducing subjective bias that overvalues a few things that Lonzo does better than other point guards while not dinging him enough for his glaring weaknesses? Or does RPM more accurately reflect what makes for impactful basketball and Lonzo's game conforms to that? |
Those are all fair questions. Every metric has its own set of strengths and weaknesses, as well as its own implicit or explicit biases and assumptions. In this case, all of the modern metrics come to more or less the same conclusion. Maybe one day metrics will advance to the point where we have a single definitive measure, though I’m not holding my breath. Until that happens, we have the statistical equivalent of the wisdom of the crowd.
I had never heard of PIPM until GT cited it. I looked it up. It looks like a good methodology, but I’m not enough of a stat geek to pass judgment. |
I’m not a fan of the all inclusive analytic formulas but when many of them rank players in the same order, it’s hard not to think they are ranking players properly. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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Aeneas Hunter wrote: | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | So overall, is that RPM overvaluing Lonzo? Are those box score priors introducing subjective bias that overvalues a few things that Lonzo does better than other point guards while not dinging him enough for his glaring weaknesses? Or does RPM more accurately reflect what makes for impactful basketball and Lonzo's game conforms to that? |
Those are all fair questions. Every metric has its own set of strengths and weaknesses, as well as its own implicit or explicit biases and assumptions. In this case, all of the modern metrics come to more or less the same conclusion. Maybe one day metrics will advance to the point where we have a single definitive measure, though I’m not holding my breath. Until that happens, we have the statistical equivalent of the wisdom of the crowd.
I had never heard of PIPM until GT cited it. I looked it up. It looks like a good methodology, but I’m not enough of a stat geek to pass judgment. |
That's a really good way of putting it. |
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CRoost Star Player
Joined: 21 Mar 2017 Posts: 4790
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Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:50 am Post subject: |
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BigGameHames wrote: | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | So overall, is that RPM overvaluing Lonzo? Are those box score priors introducing subjective bias that overvalues a few things that Lonzo does better than other point guards while not dinging him enough for his glaring weaknesses? Or does RPM more accurately reflect what makes for impactful basketball and Lonzo's game conforms to that? |
Those are all fair questions. Every metric has its own set of strengths and weaknesses, as well as its own implicit or explicit biases and assumptions. In this case, all of the modern metrics come to more or less the same conclusion. Maybe one day metrics will advance to the point where we have a single definitive measure, though I’m not holding my breath. Until that happens, we have the statistical equivalent of the wisdom of the crowd.
I had never heard of PIPM until GT cited it. I looked it up. It looks like a good methodology, but I’m not enough of a stat geek to pass judgment. |
I’m not a fan of the all inclusive analytic formulas but when many of them rank players in the same order, it’s hard not to think they are ranking players properly. |
lot of them meet my eye test. There are definitely few outliers but overall , they are good indicators. |
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