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Luminous8 Star Player
Joined: 26 Apr 2017 Posts: 2192
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Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | Luminous8 wrote: | Except it takes into account three point attempts no? Because there was a point during lonzo's hot streak where he was somehow shooting a better TS% than BI despite shooting a lower percentage in all three shot categories. |
It takes into accounts 3PT makes, not attempts. This is an example of how you can be more efficient than another guy while having lower numbers in each category of the slash line, and both profiles are similar to the type of shot volume that Ingram & Lonzo have on different shots.
Lonzo-type (when he was shooting well from 3)
2PT: 14-35 (40%)
3PT: 24-60 (40%)
FT: 5-10 (50%)
105 points on 100 possessions (40/40/50 slash line)
Brandon-type
2PT: 38-80 (48%)
3PT: 5-10 (50%)
FT: 13-20 (65%)
104 points on 100 possessions (48/50/65 slash line) |
That's why Im not a huge fan of TS%. I see how it works, but it doesn't take into account points coming off all of those missed threes. Seems like that's A LOat of opportunity for fast break points on the other end.
Anyways, thanks for clarifying. Never fully understood TS ( though I guess I never really sat down and tried to either) |
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Mike@LG Moderator
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
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Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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governator wrote: | Shawn Marion with double-double out the gate, didn't know that. |
That guy was the best underrated pick in fantasy league for years. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
I am not an economic advisor nor do I advise economic strategies or plans. |
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GoldenThroat Moderator
Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 37474
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Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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Luminous8 wrote: | That's why Im not a huge fan of TS%. I see how it works, but it doesn't take into account points coming off all of those missed threes. Seems like that's A LOat of opportunity for fast break points on the other end.
Anyways, thanks for clarifying. Never fully understood TS ( though I guess I never really sat down and tried to either) |
This is something that's been extensively studied, and there's no real correlation between shooting 3's and greater fast break opportunities for the opponent. Being that around 20-25% of misses are rebounded by the offense, scoring the same points with more misses is better for the offense, not worse.
Teams continue to break the 3PA record every season for reason. |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17880
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Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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GoldenThroat wrote: | Luminous8 wrote: | Except it takes into account three point attempts no? Because there was a point during lonzo's hot streak where he was somehow shooting a better TS% than BI despite shooting a lower percentage in all three shot categories. |
It takes into accounts 3PT makes, not attempts. This is an example of how you can be more efficient than another guy while having lower numbers in each category of the slash line, and both profiles are similar to the type of shot volume that Ingram & Lonzo have on different shots.
Lonzo-type (when he was shooting well from 3)
2PT: 14-35 (40%)
3PT: 24-60 (40%)
FT: 5-10 (50%)
105 points on 100 possessions (40/40/50 slash line)
Brandon-type
2PT: 38-80 (48%)
3PT: 5-10 (50%)
FT: 13-20 (65%)
104 points on 100 possessions (48/50/65 slash line) |
Simpson's Paradox |
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tox Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015 Posts: 17880
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Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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manlisten wrote: | tox wrote: | LakerLanny wrote: | Omar Little wrote: |
If I had to rank those stats, the most important would be TS%, the rest being important but contextual to minutes and opportunities. Would rather see steals andblocks and rebounds per 36, and scoring is probably the least important of those to analyze. |
What is your favorite defense stat? |
Incidentally Daryl Morey did an AMA on reddit (basically reddit users ask him questions and he answers whatever he feels like answering) and he explicitly said all the publicly available defensive metrics are bad and no team uses them.
Just FWIW. I always thought DRPM was decent but I'd defer to Morey. |
Where did you see him say no team uses them? I just saw him flat out say no when asked if defensive stats tell you if a player is a good defender. |
You're probably right and I just editorialized what he wrote in my mind
Either way, the point remains that he said publicly available defensive stats are bad so that's that. |
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LakerLanny Retired Number
Joined: 24 Oct 2001 Posts: 47581
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Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:06 am Post subject: |
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LakerSanity wrote: | Makes me sad that our young guys, like Ingram, arent in the playoffs. The experience they are receiving gives an edge to guys like Tatum and Mitchell an edge. Nothing like playing in the playoffs to teach you how to play winning basketball. |
I agree and was thinking the same thing watching guys like Collins for Portland getting such valuable experience.
We have to make the playoffs next season no matter what. The drought must end, I like long showers and to water my lawn incessantly. _________________ Love, Laker Lanny |
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ElginBaylor Franchise Player
Joined: 05 Nov 2005 Posts: 10775 Location: Hoosier Nation
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Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:09 am Post subject: |
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I want to see Ingram pass to Ingram for an assist. _________________ Not a legend |
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aprevo15 Star Player
Joined: 08 Jun 2010 Posts: 5923
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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This kid better be here when the season starts. He is the future of this team. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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aprevo15 wrote: | This kid better be here when the season starts. He is the future of this team. |
I would be more convinced if he could knock down free throws at a better rate than me. |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | aprevo15 wrote: | This kid better be here when the season starts. He is the future of this team. |
I would be more convinced if he could knock down free throws at a better rate than me. |
He actually improved by about 8%.. It's a non issue really. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | aprevo15 wrote: | This kid better be here when the season starts. He is the future of this team. |
I would be more convinced if he could knock down free throws at a better rate than me. |
He actually improved by about 8%.. It's a non issue really. |
athletically hes impressive, but i don't see him ever being a great shooter and we all know what the game is about these days. |
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GODBE Starting Rotation
Joined: 31 May 2016 Posts: 235
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:10 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | aprevo15 wrote: | This kid better be here when the season starts. He is the future of this team. |
I would be more convinced if he could knock down free throws at a better rate than me. |
He actually improved by about 8%.. It's a non issue really. |
athletically hes impressive, but i don't see him ever being a great shooter and we all know what the game is about these days. |
You don't see him "ever" being a great shooter.. It's these kind of statements that I find odd.. You have absolutely no way of knowing he wont. So to be so unequivocal in using the word "ever" based on a hunch makes very little sense to me. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Whats odd is his three point percentage is decent, but i'm not passing on KL because I think this guy is the next laker legend.
Dont get me wrong he can still become a good player, i just think hes overrated on this forum,and by Laker fans in general.
Last edited by Lakerz113 on Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:13 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:13 pm Post subject: |
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Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
You're smarter than that comment suggests.. now if you don't like him that's fine. But don't be absurd. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
You're smarter than that comment suggests.. now if you don't like him that's fine. But don't be absurd. |
Did you expect his free throw percentage to regress from his god awful percentage in the first year? |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
You're smarter than that comment suggests.. now if you don't like him that's fine. But don't be absurd. |
Did you expect his free throw percentage to regress from his god awful percentage in the first year? |
You honestly don't believe that's a dumb question?
Let's try again.. the point is he's improving. It is more probable that he will continue to do so. Does that make sense? |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
You're smarter than that comment suggests.. now if you don't like him that's fine. But don't be absurd. |
Did you expect his free throw percentage to regress from his god awful percentage in the first year? |
You honestly don't believe that's a dumb question?
Let's try again.. the point is he's improving. It is more probable that he will continue to do so. Does that make sense? |
I agree he is improving, i'm just saying i think expectations are a little to high and i wouldn't label him as untouchable. |
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Judah Star Player
Joined: 23 Jun 2015 Posts: 4759
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:31 pm Post subject: |
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Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Lakerz113 wrote: | SocalDevin wrote: | Godbe wrote: | ft% at Duke: 68%
ft% this season: 68% |
Umm how bout we use the stats from his actual NBA career.. Instead of the one that helps with our narrative..
62% first year.. 68% second year.. |
thanks..that's a horrible free throw percentage. |
Well yea.. but the point is he's improving, and there's no valid reason one could give to suggest he won't continue to improve. |
Was there really anyway he could decline? |
_________________ “Christ did not die to forgive sinners who go on treasuring anything above seeing and savoring God. And people who would be happy in heaven if Christ were not there, will not be there."
- John Piper |
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SocalDevin Star Player
Joined: 26 May 2016 Posts: 7825 Location: Long Beach
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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There's quite a few individuals on this site who don't have high expectations. And it's fine that you wouldn't label him untouchable. I take comfort in the front office communicating that he is. Even though the right offer could change that. Point is the sentiment was expressed. So it would have to be a hell of a deal for us if he was moved. |
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Lakerz113 Star Player
Joined: 15 Mar 2015 Posts: 2445
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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My originally responded to a post saying this guy is the future. The fact that he now improved his free throw percentage to 68 % does not make me a believer. |
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