My Perfect Offseason

 
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2018 10:45 am    Post subject: My Perfect Offseason

Pre-Draft (Post-Draft in new comment below added 6/27/2018).

1. During the draft, we agree to trade Deng, the 2018 25th pick, and 2019 pick protected 1-7 in a salary dump. Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks should have enough cap space to absorb Deng's contract and they are rebuilding so would want picks. If the 2019 pick is not conveyed, they get 2nd round picks in 2019 and 2020.

2. Sign Lebron James and Paul George. Both will require max contracts to get

3. Sign Julius Randle to a reasonable contract (12-15 million per year). Give him the highest trade kicker to sign him at a hometown discount and get more money if he's traded.

This should be possible if we unload Deng without taking on any additional contracts. Randle would help the team compete immediately compared to the picks we give up to unload Deng. Also, we can create a trade package around Randle for another all-star to join Lebron and PG if needed. Lastly, we keep all of our young prospects to continue developing or trade with Randle.

Ball, Ingram, Hart, Kuzma, Zubac, Bryant, Lebron, George, Randle.

Lakers would still have the mid-level exception to add a solid role player. Might be difficult but I would see if Nerlens Noel, Jusuf Nurkic, Ed Davis, Avery Bradley, or Danny Green are interested. Maybe someone like Fred Van Vleet, Mario Hezonja is more likely.

Minimum contracts to Jameer Nelson, JaVale McGee, Channing Frye, Andre Ingram, Jarrett Jack.

Edit 5/21/2018: Reports that Lakers made a guarantee to draft Mitchell Robinson (C) if he's available at 25. I would prefer Lakers draft a big PG/combo guard who can defend and shot the 3 ball. Seems like there are more options for defensive minded/athletic C in free agency versus combo guard as we shift to positionless/switching basketball. P.S. These rumors were shot down and doesn't appear Lakers made any promises.

4. Optional - Pursue a trade in mid-December for a 3rd all star by offering Randle plus another young player.

Draft Day Trades

Atlanta trades #3 pick to Dallas for #5, #33, and 2019 2nd Round pick

Lakers trade #25 pick to Atlanta for #33 and #34 picks.

Atlanta trades #19 and #25 to get back in the lottery between 12-14 range.

New York trades up for #4 pick and Parsons for #9 pick, #36 pick, Noah, and 2019 2nd round pick


Last edited by chekmatex4 on Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:52 am; edited 8 times in total
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lakurluv
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 4:50 am    Post subject:

The biggest question in your off-season plan is the "Deng" affect. I doubt any rebuilding team would want to add that type of money to their roster, when it doesn't represent any leverage. This year would have been the time to trade his contract and he could have helped a playoff team. Next year, he'll be one year older and his pockets will get one year fatter!

If and that's a big IF he get's traded, it will have to be to a playoff team and most likely the only team willing to take him at this stage in his career would be Minnesota.
Minny is pretty much the Bulls rebuilt with new management when Deng, Rose, Butler, Gibson and those guys were all on the team. I'll bet they resign rose, he was solid for them and with their young core, will make it further next year. Tibbs believe's he could win with those guys and they are all loyal to each other and he feels he owes them.

My guess the Lakers and Deng agree to a Buyout of some type and allow him to sign with Minny as a Free Agent. Which isn't a bad idea.

For some reason, I don't see LBJ coming to the Lakers, but I do see him coming to LA which could mean the Clippers. The Clips have been nabbing Free Agents for Years and truth be told they maybe a little more intriguing for LBJ and him going to the Clips may cause DJ to re-up with them.

I totally agree in resigning Randle and obtaining PG13, I do believe he will fully embrace the Purple and Gold of the Lakers next season.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2018 12:46 pm    Post subject:

lakurluv wrote:
The biggest question in your off-season plan is the "Deng" affect. I doubt any rebuilding team would want to add that type of money to their roster, when it doesn't represent any leverage. This year would have been the time to trade his contract and he could have helped a playoff team. Next year, he'll be one year older and his pockets will get one year fatter!

If and that's a big IF he get's traded, it will have to be to a playoff team and most likely the only team willing to take him at this stage in his career would be Minnesota.
Minny is pretty much the Bulls rebuilt with new management when Deng, Rose, Butler, Gibson and those guys were all on the team. I'll bet they resign rose, he was solid for them and with their young core, will make it further next year. Tibbs believe's he could win with those guys and they are all loyal to each other and he feels he owes them.

My guess the Lakers and Deng agree to a Buyout of some type and allow him to sign with Minny as a Free Agent. Which isn't a bad idea.

For some reason, I don't see LBJ coming to the Lakers, but I do see him coming to LA which could mean the Clippers. The Clips have been nabbing Free Agents for Years and truth be told they maybe a little more intriguing for LBJ and him going to the Clips may cause DJ to re-up with them.

I totally agree in resigning Randle and obtaining PG13, I do believe he will fully embrace the Purple and Gold of the Lakers next season.
I agree that it would've been great to trade Deng, ideally to Minnesota. I think it would've worked out salary wise if the trade was made for Pekovic before he was waived.

The Deng issue will have such a large impact on the offseason.

1. Trade Deng with no salary coming back. Possible to sign 2 max free agents and resign Randle.

2. Stretch Deng. Possible to sign 2 max free agents but probably won't resign Randle or sign 1 max free agent, resign Randle, and keep bird rights for some other players.

3. Keep Deng. Possible to sign 1 max free agent, resign Randle, and keep bird rights on some of the other players (KCP, Brook Lopez, Isaiah Thomas).

If I was on a rebuilding team, I would consider taking Deng on if it brought additional assets to accelerate the rebuild. For example, Memphis might be entering a rebuild if it trades Gasol and possibly Conley. I would consider trading for Deng since his contract expires at the same time as Parsons. Also, teams like Sacramento and Atlanta are not free agent destinations so they might be willing to take on the salary cap hit for picks.
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scoobs
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PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 5:50 pm    Post subject: Re: My Perfect Offseason

chekmatex4 wrote:
1. During the draft, we agree to trade Deng, the 2018 25th pick, and 2019 pick protected 1-7 in a salary dump. Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks should have enough cap space to absorb Deng's contract and they are rebuilding so would want picks. If the 2019 pick is not conveyed, they get 2nd round picks in 2019 and 2020.

2. Sign Lebron James and Paul George. Both will require max contracts to get

3. Sign Julius Randle to a reasonable contract (12-15 million per year). Give him the highest trade kicker to sign him at a hometown discount and get more money if he's traded.

This should be possible if we unload Deng without taking on any additional contracts. Randle would help the team compete immediately compared to the picks we give up to unload Deng. Also, we can create a trade package around Randle for another all-star to join Lebron and PG if needed. Lastly, we keep all of our young prospects to continue developing or trade with Randle.

Ball, Ingram, Hart, Kuzma, Zubac, Bryant, Lebron, George, Randle.

Lakers would still have the mid-level exception to add a solid role player. Might be difficult but I would see if Nerlens Noel, Jusuf Nurkic, Ed Davis, Avery Bradley, or Danny Green are interested. Maybe someone like Fred Van Vleet, Mario Hezonja is more likely.

Minimum contracts to Jameer Nelson, JaVale McGee, Channing Frye, Andre Ingram, Jarrett Jack.

Edit 5/21/2018: Reports that Lakers made a guarantee to draft Mitchell Robinson (C) if he's available at 25. I would prefer Lakers draft a big PG/combo guard who can defend and shot the 3 ball. Seems like there are more options for defensive minded/athletic C in free agency versus combo guard as we shift to positionless/switching basketball.
This is pretty much what I have been saying for a while now. Except, I would be willing to trade a young player to dump Deng, if needed and I would be willing to pay Randle 18-20 million if needed.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:05 pm    Post subject:

Lakers drafted Moe Wagner, Isaac Bonga, and Svi Mykhailiuk. Here are a couple options heading into free agency.

Plan A - 2 Max Free Agents with Potential for 3rd

1. Lakers should aim to get verbal agreements from Lebron and PG early in free agency.

2a. Lakers should trade Deng plus assets to convince a team to take take Deng's salary off the books. This should free up enough salary to keep Randle's bird rights and resign him.

2b. Lakers trade Deng and additional assets for a 3rd all star, such as Kawhi. Lakers may not be able to resign Randle depending on the contracts heading back to the Lakers.

2c. If there are no takers for Deng, then stretch him and sign the free agents who verbally agreed to join the Lakers. Lakers would lose out on Randle.

Plan B - Only 1 Max Free Agent to Lakers

1. Lakers get an agreement from Lebron or PG

2. Lakers should look to take on additional expiring contracts ($11-$16 million) while picking up additional assets. This will increase our potential trade packages while leaving cap room for 2019-20 offseason. Deng remains a Laker and we are in no rush to stretch or trade him.

3. Use additional assets to trade for Kawhi or 2nd All Star.

Plan C - No Free Agents Join the Lakers

1. Keep the team as is and resign Randle.

2. Trade for contracts expiring after the 2018-19 season while picking up additional assets. This will help Lakers improve their trade offers while leaving cap room for 2019-20 offseason.

3. Fill out roster with 1 year deals, similar to KCP last year.

Deng Salary Dump

With Deng having 2 years and $36.8m remaining, I believe stretching him would be a $7.4m hit for 5 years. If teams aren't willing to take on his salary or are asking for too much, maybe we can trade Deng + lesser assets for a smaller expiring deal.

Example: Deng + asset(s) for Shumpert (10m) or Garrett Temple (8m) from the Kings. Stretching these contracts will be a $2.7m-$3.3m hit over 3 years.

Possibly Deng + asset(s) to Bulls, Bulls trade Robin Lopez (13.8m) to Wizards, Wizards trade Austin Rivers (11.8m) to Lakers. Stretching Rivers is $3.9m over 3 years.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:50 pm    Post subject:

Lakers landed Lebron as the 1 max free agent to Lakers, which was the Plan B. Unfortunately we had to use up more cap space to sign KCP to get the deal done. This takes out the option of Lakers taking on a bad contract to gather additional assets. My hopes for what's next.

I hope Lakers don't stretch Deng because there aren't anymore difference makers in free agency. There is too much uncertainty around Demarcus Cousins due to his injury (might not even play until January so let another team offer him a 1 year deal and we can see how his health is). We can stretch Deng next year or trade him during the deadline for an expiring contract (teams trying to get under the Luxury Tax might be pressured, such as Nuggets and Wizards). Deng ($18m in 2018-19 and $18.8m in 2019-20) for Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur ($34m in expiring) if we release Randle and Nuggets will fall under the Luxury tax threshold. (Edit: Chandler was traded to Sixers with a 2nd round pick. I still view unloading Deng as imperative to our future plans. Trade Deng for Faried and Arthur still works. Nuggets would save 3m in salary and 5m in luxury tax. I would even go so far and give Nuggets right to swap 1st round pick in 2019 and, if necessary, 2021 as well. We would still be able to trade either our pick or Nuggets pick in 2019 or 2021 as part of our offer for an All Star.)

With Lebron and KCP signings today, Lakers can still maintain Randle's cap space. I hope Lakers either resign Randle or sign and trade Randle to the Spurs for Kawhi or in a trade deadline deal. We shouldn't let Randle walk away without getting anything in return like Pau Gasol did.

Randle, Ingram, 2019 Pick, and lesser assets (Zubac, Wagner, Svi) hopefully gets it done (Comparables: Jimmy Butler for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the No. 7 pick. Kyrie Irving for Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, first-round pick, second-round pick). Or create a package around Randle at the trade deadline for a different All Star to join Lebron.

I still like Nerlens Noel and Jusuf Nurkic for the mid-level exception. With signing KCP to the 1 year deal, we have less of a need for Avery Bradley.

Minimum contracts to Jameer Nelson, JaVale McGee, Channing Frye, Andre Ingram, Jarrett Jack, Alex Caruso, Thomas Bryant, Wade?, Melo?.

Edit: Not a fan of some of these signings after Lebron agreed to join.

1. KCP - Understandable deal to get Lebron as they share the same agent.

2. McGee - Good get for the minimum

3. Stephenson for the MLE of $4.4m. What?!?! Probably could've been used for Nerlens Noel (signed with Thunder 2 year minimum deal, Ed Davis (Signed with Nets for the MLE). Even Kyle O'Quinn or Tyreke Evans.

4. Release Randle and sign Rondo to a $9m deal. Unless we trade Ball, this is a confusing decision since Rondo isn't known as a good shooter and we should surround Lebron with shooters. Also we let Randle go and received nothing in return.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:00 am    Post subject:

Lakers pretty much used up all their cap space (have $4.4m MLE remaining). My perfect offseason didn't come to fruition (no 2nd All Star, lost Randle for nothing). Here are my hopes/predictions for the season.

- There is no rush to trade Deng now because Lakers can clear a max slot to sign a free agent by stretching his contract. Therefore, we shouldn't attach assets simply to unload Deng's contract.

- Let the team build chemistry through mid-December and revisit trading for an All Star before the trade deadline (we need to maintain our assets for a potential trade, which is why we shouldn't use them to unload Deng). There should be a clearer picture of who fits in with Lebron. Lakers have good young talent and shouldn't overpay in the trade since they have the luxury and leverage to wait for 2019 free agency. Standing pat and keeping the young guys is an option as well.

- I predict Paul George will be traded in either year 2 or year 3 of his contract. OKC can't improve due to their salary cap/luxury tax position unless they make a trade.

- NBA is in talks to eliminate the one and done rule. Lakers should try to keep the first round pick for the year in which that happens as it will result in a deep draft.
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