Official 2018/2019 Playoff Seedings Watch
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pokoy
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:00 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


I love it. Keep the blackboard stuff coming.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:01 am    Post subject:

Who?
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:04 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West

Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


Interesting. This is driven by statistical assumptions about players declining when they change teams. I think we'll do a little better than this, but it's not outside the bounds of reason. I see us winning 45-46 games. However, I think the bell curve is sort of flat. I would not be surprised by anything +/- 5 games from that total, and I would not be shocked by anything +/- 10 games from that total.
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sebadoh128
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:31 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


For the longest time I assumed the media hated Kobe, turns out, they just hate the Lakers.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:38 am    Post subject:

sebadoh128 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


For the longest time I assumed the media hated Kobe, turns out, they just hate the Lakers.


They hate the thought of the Lakers becoming another dynasty.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:55 am    Post subject:

Guys, this is just something that came out of Pelton's computer model. There's no reason to get upset about it. Pelton plugged in assumptions and data and produced projections for the whole league. He has the Warriors winning 58 games and Toronto winning the East with 55 wins. He has the Jazz finishing second in the West.

Just take it for what it is. These sorts of statistical models tend to be more accurate than a lot of people want them to be, but that doesn't mean that they are gospel. It's just a statistical model.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:59 am    Post subject:

They seem like gospel to me when it concerns the Lakers, we won 35 games last season without LeBron. +6 wins seems low when you also factor in all the games lost due to injuries suffered by Lonzo and Ingram.

We played a bunch of G League quality players as backups last season and still went on to win 35 games.

Pelton's computer model is garbage.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:04 am    Post subject:

I just ignore any article/pod/tweet/comment that has the Lakers anywhere near .500 as a team. LeBron has literally missed the playoffs 1 time in his career and only 2 times (rookie and sophomore year) been on a team that is anywhere remotely close to .500.

So now, after one of his best seasons ever, he's going to join a team that won 35 last year, despite significant time missed to key players and I'm supposed to waste my time reading why someone thinks they're not going to be much better as a team? Sorry, you can save the clickbait for someone else. I'm over it all and it's only been a month.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:43 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Guys, this is just something that came out of Pelton's computer model. There's no reason to get upset about it. Pelton plugged in assumptions and data and produced projections for the whole league. He has the Warriors winning 58 games and Toronto winning the East with 55 wins. He has the Jazz finishing second in the West.

Just take it for what it is. These sorts of statistical models tend to be more accurate than a lot of people want them to be, but that doesn't mean that they are gospel. It's just a statistical model.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLgXPF2rZ0
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:43 am    Post subject:

sebadoh128 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


For the longest time I assumed the media hated Kobe, turns out, they just hate the Lakers.


The problem is 2 fold. Part is the Laker hate/envy/fear. The thought about the Lakers being back on top of the league, is something that people around the league just can't stomach.

Also, the media is filled with analytical, non bball knowledge people that use fabricated numbers to form opinions.

So a team that had injuries, played in the west and still won 35 games, add the best player in the world, and only win 6 more games.......smh. Lebron is only good for 6 more wins. And out young players aren't gonna be healthier this year, and they won't get better. Then you have people like Ramona sit on TVand say that she could see this actually happening. There are so much basketball ignorance in media today it makes sports tv shows unwatchable.
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kawhileonard
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:12 pm    Post subject:

Hasn't Pelton been pretty accurate with his predictions for us in recent years....
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:18 pm    Post subject:

kawhileonard wrote:
Hasn't Pelton been pretty accurate with his predictions for us in recent years....


This isnít a prediction, he is just using a data model.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:19 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
kawhileonard wrote:
Hasn't Pelton been pretty accurate with his predictions for us in recent years....


This isnít a prediction, he is just using a data model.


Yeap. EXactly, his data model has been accurate from what I recall.

HE has the NETS winning 37 games ...
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:32 pm    Post subject:

I can't believe how many people are actually giving this any real thought.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:43 pm    Post subject:

kawhileonard wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
kawhileonard wrote:
Hasn't Pelton been pretty accurate with his predictions for us in recent years....


This isnít a prediction, he is just using a data model.


Yeap. EXactly, his data model has been accurate from what I recall.

HE has the NETS winning 37 games ...


If you really think we will miss the playoffs despite the fact that we unfortunately we couldnít withstand the injuries we would have been there last year.. and this team is way better then last years team.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:46 am    Post subject:

Western Conference Prediction:

1. Warriors
2. Rockets
3. Thunder
4. Jazz
5. Nuggets
6. Lakers
7. Pelicans
8. Spurs
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:06 am    Post subject:

Chronicle wrote:
Who?


Nice owl impression
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:09 am    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
sebadoh128 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


For the longest time I assumed the media hated Kobe, turns out, they just hate the Lakers.


They hate the thought of the Lakers becoming another dynasty.


I doubt many are worried about that. Letís hope for a return to the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:10 am    Post subject:

ShowtimeDynasty_24/7 wrote:
Western Conference Prediction:

1. Warriors
2. Rockets
3. Thunder
4. Jazz
5. Nuggets
6. Lakers
7. Pelicans
8. Spurs


I would only switch Denver and New Orleans
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:50 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
sebadoh128 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Pelton projects us to be 9th in the West


Quote:
9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.


For the longest time I assumed the media hated Kobe, turns out, they just hate the Lakers.


They hate the thought of the Lakers becoming another dynasty.


I doubt many are worried about that. Letís hope for a return to the playoffs.


Arenít worried even though we have assets to make a move or wait for 2019 FA?
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:34 pm    Post subject: I donít fear any team in the playoffs ..

Not that the Lakers are the best team in the nba. But because Rondo can win you 2 games in a series alone. Then we have the best player in the league whoís capable of stealing games as well. Remember that game Kuzma decided we wasnít going to lose to Houston? Yea that guy will be better this season. Iím confident that we will compete with any team.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:54 pm    Post subject:

I only fear the Warriors in the West. HOU gotta see us in the playoffs they got worse
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:10 pm    Post subject:

Mmmm
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:15 pm    Post subject:

I fear every team in the playoffs.

Because I havenít seen most of our players play with something truly on the line yet.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:17 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
I fear every team in the playoffs.

Because I havenít seen most of our players play with something truly on the line yet.


We have the best player in the world and playoffs rondo
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