Lakers Ranking/Win Total Next Season (Vegas Sets Line @ 48.5; ESPN Predicts 41 Wins/Miss Playoffs)
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How Many Wins/What Seed Do You See The Lakers Acheiving This Season?
A. 41 Wins or Less/Miss the Playoffs
1%
 1%  [ 3 ]
B. 42-44 Wins/8th Seed
0%
 0%  [ 1 ]
C. 45-49 Wins/6th to 7th Seed
16%
 16%  [ 37 ]
D. 50-55 Wins/3rd to 5th Seed
65%
 65%  [ 143 ]
E. 56 Wins or More/1st or 2nd Seed
16%
 16%  [ 36 ]
Total Votes : 220

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epak
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:05 pm    Post subject:

Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


They were fortunate the Lakers had injuries and I don't think they account for injuries in their predictions. Correct me if I'm wrong on the injuries calculations.
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DShotMaker1824
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:25 am    Post subject:

I still think we'd go 47-35 and finish 7th in the West. The race for 4-11th will be really close. The West is brutal.
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oaktown_dimond
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:43 am    Post subject:

Which is why the east vs. West playoff format it not good for the NBA. Should be the best 16 teams period. Who wants to see the Warriors just massacre whoever comes out of the east? Though a healthy Boston gives them a run for their money.

diando wrote:
I still think we'd go 47-35 and finish 7th in the West. The race for 4-11th will be really close. The West is brutal.
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DShotMaker1824
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:53 am    Post subject:

oaktown_dimond wrote:
Which is why the east vs. West playoff format it not good for the NBA. Should be the best 16 teams period. Who wants to see the Warriors just massacre whoever comes out of the east? Though a healthy Boston gives them a run for their money.

diando wrote:
I still think we'd go 47-35 and finish 7th in the West. The race for 4-11th will be really close. The West is brutal.

I disagree, the East just needs to stop being cheap.
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Harlemlakerfan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:58 am    Post subject:

I got money to bet anybody dumb enough to believe that the Lakers won't make the playoffs next season. This is nothing but typical ESPN click bait and I see that a lot of people took it.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:23 am    Post subject:

Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


The model is not good at forecasting the development of young players. Last year, the model said that the Sixers would win 33 games. Obviously, the model cannot forecast trades or unusually significant injuries. Last year, Pelton's model had us winning 33. We won 35. Our expected W-L (which is based on scoring margin) was 37. So we exceeded Pelton's model, but obviously not to the same extent as the Sixers. Our defense was a lot better than Pelton (and, to be fair, pretty much everyone on this board) expected.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:29 am    Post subject:

Runway8 wrote:
This is a prime example of LG/ESPN paranoia. For years, we have people saying ESPN is a Lebron media hype machine. This doesn't quite flow with that narrative, huh? They must hate the Lakers more than they love Lebron.

I don't think there is any agenda to prop Lebron, just like I don't think there is any agenda to hate the Lakers. They are just stupid, plain and simple.


They are right more than your average LG poster, some have us at 60 wins.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:58 pm    Post subject: Vegas sets Lakers win total at 48.5

Las Vegas books Lakers, LeBron James as playoff-bound

Quote:
LeBron James has reached the playoffs in 13 straight seasons, including eight consecutive appearances in the Finals. Oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas believe he'll be back in the playoffs again this season, James' first with the Los Angeles Lakers.

The SuperBook on Sunday opened betting on NBA season win totals and pegged Los Angeles at 48.5 wins in the rugged Western Conference.


Quote:
The Lakers are one of seven Western Conference teams with a win total listed in the 40s. The Utah Jazz are at 48.5, followed by the Denver Nuggets (47.5), New Orleans Pelicans (45.5), Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5), San Antonio Spurs (43.5) and Portland Trail Blazers (41.5).


Quote:
"We felt in the tougher Western Conference, we made a number [on the Lakers] that is competitive with other similar teams," SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told ESPN in an email. "Our expectations are the public will bet over, but sharps will be more inclined to bet under if we went higher."

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epak
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:59 pm    Post subject:

Vegas > ESPN

Last edited by epak on Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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danzag
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:02 pm    Post subject:

52 wins for me.
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PartyMan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:05 pm    Post subject:

I would set the over/under at 50. I think we'll be right about there.

Argument for more: Ball takes a big step forward as a scorer and shooter. Ingram makes another solid leap.

Argument for less: Injuries and/or team taking a long time to gel. Though highly unlikely, LeBron starts to really decline. Should be a top 5 player throughout this contract.
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Killakobe81
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:10 pm    Post subject:

48 is fair..
I say 46-52 is our window I think we get 50 though
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lakerz32
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:23 pm    Post subject:

fair

I have us capable of 48-52 wins

I would predict closer to 49-50 wins though

the west will be a blood bath.
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Inspector Gadget
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:27 pm    Post subject:

I’m expecting us to make a trade to lift the team so I wouldn’t be surprised at 60+ wins
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:30 pm    Post subject:

Interesting, I usually post the season prediction thread (official) closer to the start of the season but I think it is time to put it up now.
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DShotMaker1824
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:32 pm    Post subject:

Just about right, since I have us at 47-35
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dont_be_a_wuss
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:34 pm    Post subject:

Probably about right. I think we are a 52-55 win team...eventually, but might have some growing pains. So the last 55-60ish games of the season we should be on pace for 53+, but before that might be on pace for 41. That puts us around 50.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:34 pm    Post subject:

about right.....I would have no interest in betting on that number.....if I was forced to, I would probably lean towards the under.
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Shaber
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:21 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


They were fortunate the Lakers had injuries and I don't think they account for injuries in their predictions. Correct me if I'm wrong on the injuries calculations.


Whatever the arithmetics and the error term they use, they have been 'fortunate' regularly. Which is kind of ... impressive.
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matrixskillz
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:27 pm    Post subject:

Vegas predicting we win 48.5 games, fourth in West
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:47 am    Post subject: Lakers, NBA Win Total Odds Released for 2018-19

2018-19 NBA Odds: Win Totals Released for LeBron James' Lakers, Warriors, More

Quote:
Per Jeff Sherman of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, the Golden State Warriors lead the way with an over/under of 62.5 wins. The new-look Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James have lofty expectations at 48.5.


Agree, disagree, yes, no, maybe

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789649-2018-19-nba-odds-win-totals-released-for-lebron-james-lakers-warriors-more
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:54 am    Post subject:

I have them at 50, so 48.5 seems about right.

Golden State at 62.5 seems high and San Antonio at 43.5 seems low.
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kball
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:14 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
I have them at 50, so 48.5 seems about right.

Golden State at 62.5 seems high and San Antonio at 43.5 seems low.


Spurs are a bigger question mark than Lakers this season i think.

What with the trade, but also Pop losing his wife of many years. Just no telling how that affects a man and his path forward.
Maybe basketball is therapy, but maybe its a really dark period for him as well. And it takes the fight out of him
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RI Laker
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:27 am    Post subject:

I just can not get around that the win total will not mean anything. I know we have a relatively easy schedule to start the season. However, with so many new pieces, we are destined to have growing pains. Furthermore, I believe Luke is really going to monitor minutes. Its not how you start the race, but how you finish. Come playoff time, we will be dangerous. If we do not reach the Western Conference Finals at a minimum, I will be disappointed.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:27 am    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


They were fortunate the Lakers had injuries and I don't think they account for injuries in their predictions. Correct me if I'm wrong on the injuries calculations.


Injuries are factored in, in his projections. They have to be, I mean, you can’t make a projection assuming Kristaps Porzingis is 100% healthy considering there are rumors he may miss this entire season, for instance.

Anyway, This is from an article last year...

Quote:
As in past seasons, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed by taking into account the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.


http://es.pn/2u2bdUu
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