OFFICIAL BRANDON INGRAM THREAD
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dao
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:45 pm    Post subject:

His gross offensive stats are not really important. The thing to look for is whether or not he makes large gains as a defensive player.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:29 pm    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
Ingram was 6th on the team in usage last year. 3rd on the team in FGA, on a team where the difference between #1 and #8 was a whopping 3FGA.

I don't understand where this narrative of Ingram as a guy who got numbers via the Andrew Wiggins green light on a bad team comes from.

In comparison, Kevin Love in Minnesota was #1 in FGA with a 3 FGA disparity between him and the next guy. He was also #1 in usage with a whopping 28.8%.

The Lakers had a different "bad team system" than those Wolves teams did.


That speaks more to the nature of Ingram's game than anything else. He's not a volume guy, which is why he doesn't explode for high point totals even when he's hot. He's scored 30+ points once in his career in a game where he played 44 minutes. His next highest total is 26.

Andrew Wiggins - who Ingram is already better than - is actually a good example. He was a looter in a riot the year before Jimmy Butler came, and averaged 23.6 ppg while playing a ton of minutes. He was greatly impacted by Butler's arrival because he's a volume guy.

Ingram had a similar framework this year with VERY low usage perimeter guys next to him (Lonzo & KCP) and didn't get the attempts up. It's not for a lack of opportunity, that's just not his game.

And that's totally okay! I just think that you have to be able to "go off" on good nights to be able to get to 23ppg, and that isn't something that he's done much, even relative to his age.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:17 pm    Post subject:

cthroatgtr wrote:
I think people need to lay off the advance stats just a little bit. More to a player than stats. But just for fun here is a comparison:

Tracy McGrady
18 year old - 7ppg / 4.2 rb / 1.5 ast
19 year old - 9.3ppg / 5.7 rb / 2.3 ast
20 year old - 15.4ppg / 6.3 rb / 3.3 ast
21 year old - 26.8ppg / 7.5 rb / 4.6 ast

Ingram is now 20 will turn 21 later this year
19 year old - 9.4ppg / 4.0 rb / 2.1 ast
20 year old - 16.1ppg / 5.3 rb / 3.9 ast
21 year old?

I am starting to think people didn't watch the games last year. BI started slowly but mid season really picked it up. He then got hurt and I suspect the team shut him down for precautionary reasons. He was really figuring out when to shoot, when to drive, when to pull up. He also ran the offense pretty well.

Now he gets LBJ to take all of the pressure off. I expect BI to be the teams 2nd leading scorer and will push his average to 20+. He was originally tabbed as the next Durant, but he is a different player. Give him time to blossom.


Also compares quite favorably to Giannis

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:20 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
manlisten wrote:
I'm looking forward to Ingram not playing like (bleep) to start the year, hopefully we're passed that stage of his career. I think he can have a Randle-esque breakout year where his role on offense changes and he doesn't create for himself as much as well as his defense improving.




I hope this is true for Kuzma, Hart and Zubac too. I don't expect this to be true for Ball due to his injury.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:35 pm    Post subject:

Annihilator wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
manlisten wrote:
I'm looking forward to Ingram not playing like (bleep) to start the year, hopefully we're passed that stage of his career. I think he can have a Randle-esque breakout year where his role on offense changes and he doesn't create for himself as much as well as his defense improving.




I hope this is true for Kuzma, Hart and Zubac too. I don't expect this to be true for Ball due to his injury.


I'm just about 100% certain Hart and Kuz will be fine.. Zu and Ingram I wonder, though they'll probably be fine.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:00 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
awntawn wrote:
Ingram was 6th on the team in usage last year. 3rd on the team in FGA, on a team where the difference between #1 and #8 was a whopping 3FGA.

I don't understand where this narrative of Ingram as a guy who got numbers via the Andrew Wiggins green light on a bad team comes from.

In comparison, Kevin Love in Minnesota was #1 in FGA with a 3 FGA disparity between him and the next guy. He was also #1 in usage with a whopping 28.8%.

The Lakers had a different "bad team system" than those Wolves teams did.


That speaks more to the nature of Ingram's game than anything else. He's not a volume guy, which is why he doesn't explode for high point totals even when he's hot. He's scored 30+ points once in his career in a game where he played 44 minutes. His next highest total is 26.

Andrew Wiggins - who Ingram is already better than - is actually a good example. He was a looter in a riot the year before Jimmy Butler came, and averaged 23.6 ppg while playing a ton of minutes. He was greatly impacted by Butler's arrival because he's a volume guy.

Ingram had a similar framework this year with VERY low usage perimeter guys next to him (Lonzo & KCP) and didn't get the attempts up. It's not for a lack of opportunity, that's just not his game.

And that's totally okay! I just think that you have to be able to "go off" on good nights to be able to get to 23ppg, and that isn't something that he's done much, even relative to his age.

I think that plays a part in it, but I think the system has a lot more to do with it as well.

You and I would probably both agree that D'Angelo Russell in his second year was a 20 ppg scorer on any other bad team. He wasn't on the Lakers. Why not? His production rates were on pace, but he just didn't get the minutes. Why were his minutes cut? Because Luke wouldn't let him play that way. Remember that stretch after the ASB when D'Lo was putting up the best, most consistent stretch of personal production in his career? And Luke decided to bench him for 3 games?

I don't think it's a stretch to say Ingram is an infinitely more coachable player than Russell.

What does it say that Kuzma has a reputation of being the volume chucker on the team who never met a shot he didn't like despite his FGA/game and Usage being virtually identical to BI's?

Kuzma was right on the threshold of acceptable with regards to volume to Luke, and he was constantly getting warnings and nudges about it. It may sound silly, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the 0.6 extra FGA/game he put up over Ingram (13.5 vs 12.9) ruffled Luke's feathers a bit. It may sound silly until you consider that DLo's 13.9 the previous year apparently crossed the red line.

For the record, I don't think this system is wrong - it just doesn't inflate young players' stats on a bad team the way it normally does. The bad part is that people underestimate your young core. The good part is that you don't pay the Andrew Wiggins' of the world the max before you find out whether or not they can actually play winning basketball.

Personally, I don't think 23 ppg is a realistic target for Ingram, if only because it's such a huge leap - that would most certainly be outlier MIP territory. However, I don't buy the notion that Ingram's opportunities will be reduced with the introduction of Lebron. I think there's historical evidence of room for about 35 shots per game behind Lebron for the 2nd and 3rd options, and if Ingram and Kuz split them, that's actually a significantly expanded opportunity for both them. I think if Ingram was allowed 17.5 attempts this year, he would have had a shot at 20 ppg. I think with the Lebron efficiency bump coupled with an offseason of development, the 20 mark is definitely not out of the question.
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mookielala
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:54 pm    Post subject:

All I know is I can't wait to see what happens this season. All I have is this damn thread till then.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:14 pm    Post subject:

Brandon Ingram is going to surpass the expectations of the same people that didn't expect him to be this good in hi sophomore year and then we'll get more justifications.

19/6/4. Dread it, run from it but BI is coming.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:28 am    Post subject:

I think he’ll average 21 4 and 4
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:24 am    Post subject:

If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:28 am    Post subject:

StillSWOL wrote:
cthroatgtr wrote:
I think people need to lay off the advance stats just a little bit. More to a player than stats. But just for fun here is a comparison:

Tracy McGrady
18 year old - 7ppg / 4.2 rb / 1.5 ast
19 year old - 9.3ppg / 5.7 rb / 2.3 ast
20 year old - 15.4ppg / 6.3 rb / 3.3 ast
21 year old - 26.8ppg / 7.5 rb / 4.6 ast

Ingram is now 20 will turn 21 later this year
19 year old - 9.4ppg / 4.0 rb / 2.1 ast
20 year old - 16.1ppg / 5.3 rb / 3.9 ast
21 year old?

I am starting to think people didn't watch the games last year. BI started slowly but mid season really picked it up. He then got hurt and I suspect the team shut him down for precautionary reasons. He was really figuring out when to shoot, when to drive, when to pull up. He also ran the offense pretty well.

Now he gets LBJ to take all of the pressure off. I expect BI to be the teams 2nd leading scorer and will push his average to 20+. He was originally tabbed as the next Durant, but he is a different player. Give him time to blossom.


Also compares quite favorably to Giannis

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html


T-Mac, Greek Freak, Scottie... Can't wait til this guy hit his prime
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:30 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.


Yeah, expecting Ingram to average more points than George, Butler and Towns may not be possible. Especially when he is still getting stronger. I will be happy with him just becoming a positive player. Kuzma and Ingram were negative players last season, according to real-plus minus.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:33 am    Post subject:

BI was playing at a boarderline All Star level the second half of last season. If he can stay healthy, I am expecting BIG things from him.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:38 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.



Playing with LBJ is going to take a lot of opportunities to shoot from the rest of the team--since LBJ will be taking his share of shots--but should lead to a higher quality shot. If BI averaged 18 ppg with higher efficiency that would be a great improvement. The Lakers also have Kuzma, KCP (who is on a one-year contract and needs production this year), Ball, Hart, Svi, Zubac, Rondo, Lance, and Beasley who are going to be trying to take their fair share of shots too. Hopefully, Magic's plan for the offense will help smooth that out.
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Last edited by Annihilator on Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:41 am    Post subject:

Annihilator wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.

Playing with LBJ is going to take a lot of opportunities to shoot--since LBJ will be taking his share of shots--but should lead to a higher quality shot. If BI averaged 18 ppg with higher efficiency that would be a great improvement. The Lakers also have Kuzma, KCP (who is on a one-year contract and needs production this year), Hart, Svi, and Beasley who are going to be trying to take their fair share of shots too. Hopefully, Magic's plan for the offense will help smooth that out.


I think by not being forced into a "#1" option he will shine even more. I think the toll of doing that wore him down last year.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:49 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Annihilator wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.

Playing with LBJ is going to take a lot of opportunities to shoot--since LBJ will be taking his share of shots--but should lead to a higher quality shot. If BI averaged 18 ppg with higher efficiency that would be a great improvement. The Lakers also have Kuzma, KCP (who is on a one-year contract and needs production this year), Hart, Svi, and Beasley who are going to be trying to take their fair share of shots too. Hopefully, Magic's plan for the offense will help smooth that out.


I think by not being forced into a "#1" option he will shine even more. I think the toll of doing that wore him down last year.

Your take is "spot on."
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:51 am    Post subject:

Annihilator wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Annihilator wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.

Playing with LBJ is going to take a lot of opportunities to shoot--since LBJ will be taking his share of shots--but should lead to a higher quality shot. If BI averaged 18 ppg with higher efficiency that would be a great improvement. The Lakers also have Kuzma, KCP (who is on a one-year contract and needs production this year), Hart, Svi, and Beasley who are going to be trying to take their fair share of shots too. Hopefully, Magic's plan for the offense will help smooth that out.


I think by not being forced into a "#1" option he will shine even more. I think the toll of doing that wore him down last year.

Your take is "spot on."


I think he will have a lot of "spot up" 3s this year. Initially I worried about BI the most b/c most of us thought it was LBJ/PG13. But now BI slides into the #2 role and I just really believe his life will be so much easier and he will be even more efficient.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:11 am    Post subject:

I think his number might be about the same this next year, only because we have Lebron and a lot of depth. 18/5/4 sounds about right; if BI makes the big improvement in defense, I think that is what will make him the second best player on the team.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:13 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
If he could:

1. play 75+ games,
2. improve on the defensive end,
3. increase his 3s to about 4-4.5 a game at least 35-36%,
4. increase his FT%.

I think the PPG guess is just too uncertain with LBJ coming here and so many new pieces. I think 18/5/4 is a real possibility this year.


I agree, I would rather see less ppg on more efficient shots. Ingram will be 21 this season, I would rather see him develop an efficient game than put up numbers with only a few offensive moves. And improve defensively. He means more to us at age 24 than age 21.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:14 am    Post subject:

Year 3 should be a nice jump for BI, even if the counting stats may not show it. Playing 75+ games is a must as this team will be going to the playoffs.

Year 4 BI, now that's the guy I'm hoping will break through the 20ppg+ threshold.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:42 am    Post subject:

BI will be better next season but getting 19.00ppg will be tricky especially under Luke's system, unless Lebron sits out a bunch of games and BI explodes during his absence.

Historically the 1st and 2nd options of teams where Lebron goes to, takes a hit on their FGA per game and not the other way around.

But if he can beat the odds and raise his FGA to about 15 per game from 12.9 last season while improving his FG% and efficiency all around, then 19ppg isn't out of reach but forget about 21 or 23ppg. He isn't getting there at least not this coming season.

A more realistic projection would be around 17-18 ppg.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:49 am    Post subject:

3baller wrote:
BI will be better next season but getting 19.00ppg will be tricky especially under Luke's system, unless Lebron sits out a bunch of games and BI explodes during his absence.

Historically the 1st and 2nd options of teams where Lebron goes to, takes a hit on their FGA per game and not the other way around.

But if he can beat the odds and raise his FGA to about 15 per game from 12.9 last season while improving his FG% and efficiency all around, then 19ppg isn't out of reach but forget about 21 or 23ppg. He isn't getting there at least not this coming season.

A more realistic projection would be around 17-18 ppg.


If he simply shoots 2-2.5 more 3s a game, and raises his FT%, he can easily get to 18-19ppg.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:58 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
3baller wrote:
BI will be better next season but getting 19.00ppg will be tricky especially under Luke's system, unless Lebron sits out a bunch of games and BI explodes during his absence.

Historically the 1st and 2nd options of teams where Lebron goes to, takes a hit on their FGA per game and not the other way around.

But if he can beat the odds and raise his FGA to about 15 per game from 12.9 last season while improving his FG% and efficiency all around, then 19ppg isn't out of reach but forget about 21 or 23ppg. He isn't getting there at least not this coming season.

A more realistic projection would be around 17-18 ppg.


If he simply shoots 2-2.5 more 3s a game, and raises his FT%, he can easily
get to 18-19ppg.


Running Luke's offense w/ LBJ, Ball & Rondo, it's quite possible that Slenderman, along with other Lakers, will have a great all-around season.
BI has quietly worked is buns off during the summer and will be ready to compete at a high level.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:02 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
3baller wrote:
BI will be better next season but getting 19.00ppg will be tricky especially under Luke's system, unless Lebron sits out a bunch of games and BI explodes during his absence.

Historically the 1st and 2nd options of teams where Lebron goes to, takes a hit on their FGA per game and not the other way around.

But if he can beat the odds and raise his FGA to about 15 per game from 12.9 last season while improving his FG% and efficiency all around, then 19ppg isn't out of reach but forget about 21 or 23ppg. He isn't getting there at least not this coming season.

A more realistic projection would be around 17-18 ppg.


If he simply shoots 2-2.5 more 3s a game, and raises his FT%, he can easily get to 18-19ppg.


That's exactly what I said. Shooting 2-2.5 shots more a game would mean he takes 14.9-15.4 FGA per game from his 12.9 FGA last season. Getting those extra touches now that he's only 2nd or 3rd option would be the tricky part with our depth + Lebron
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:06 am    Post subject:

3baller wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
3baller wrote:
BI will be better next season but getting 19.00ppg will be tricky especially under Luke's system, unless Lebron sits out a bunch of games and BI explodes during his absence.

Historically the 1st and 2nd options of teams where Lebron goes to, takes a hit on their FGA per game and not the other way around.

But if he can beat the odds and raise his FGA to about 15 per game from 12.9 last season while improving his FG% and efficiency all around, then 19ppg isn't out of reach but forget about 21 or 23ppg. He isn't getting there at least not this coming season.

A more realistic projection would be around 17-18 ppg.


If he simply shoots 2-2.5 more 3s a game, and raises his FT%, he can easily get to 18-19ppg.


That's exactly what I said. Shooting 2-2.5 shots more a game would mean he takes 14.9-15.4 FGA per game from his 12.9 FGA last season. Getting those extra touches now that he's only 2nd or 3rd option would be the tricky part with our depth + Lebron


I'm saying more 3s, not necessarily more overall shots (agree that getting many more shots will be tougher). I don't have the splits of 3s/non-3s he took per game. But if he took 15 shots, and if he will get 16 shots on average, I'd shift it around so he takes 2-2.5 more 3 pointers a game and replaces long 2s.
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