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vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:04 pm Post subject:

Runway8 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Cranjis went in on the Lakers roster and it’s a great read for those that have time.
Magictweet/Cliff notes/tldr: We’re in trouble if either Bron or AD go down. But if one had to go down as sacrificie to the bball gawd, it better be AD, cause without Bron, we washed. So it’sa good thing we exploited our early schedule if/when adversity hits.

https://www.bball-index.com/laker-check-in/

If harden goes down
If jokic goes down
If Leonard goes down
If Giannis goes down
If Embiid goes down

Its the same for all the best teams. This isn't unique to the Lakers

Harden is 30 and them career playoff legs stay fresh tho
Jokic is 24 and them career playoff legs stay fresh tho
Leonard is 28, has load managed before, has crazy depth in Trez/Lou to keep those playoff legs fresh tho
Giannis is 25 and has that super soldier serum running through his playoff legs fo sho
Embiid is 25 and has Horford to sub in a flinch, uh I mean in a pinch to keep the playoff process a Cbag green go

Meanwhile AD most likely has a torn labrum in his dominant arm that needs managing till summer surgery and Bron about to turn 35 with next to no depth at the forward spot and no playmaking help other than ‘Do

We all Laker fans here, but we can’t be Homers ignoring the intangibles...
https://media.giphy.com/media/xT5LMzIK1AdZJ4cYW4/giphy.gif

You're still projecting rosy outlooks for other teams, and pessimistic about own team. They all play basketball, they'll all exposed to season ending injuries. The injury God doesn't look at your age. PG13, Hayward, Durant... they weren't old when they got their season ending injuries.

True, but the more exposure you get on the court, the higher the incidence.

Remember that MDA dude and what he did to our Laker gawd? Well consider this...Russ and Harden are one of 2 star duos that are getting the most run/usage so far this year. Want to venture a guess who the second superstar duo is? You think that’s good company to even be in?

Bron is 7th in total mins and 5th in usage. AD is 12th in minutes and 9th in usage (minimum 30mpg; 20 games played). They are the only duo in the league to be top 15 in both those categories.

defense
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Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:39 pm Post subject:

Runway8 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

If harden goes down
If jokic goes down
If Leonard goes down
If Giannis goes down
If Embiid goes down

Its the same for all the best teams. This isn't unique to the Lakers

You're still projecting rosy outlooks for other teams, and pessimistic about own team. They all play basketball, they're all exposed to season ending injuries. The injury God doesn't look at your age. PG13, Hayward, Durant... they weren't old when they got their season ending injuries.

Leonard who has a degenerative condition (confirmed) will be just fine

While Davis who he claims has a torn Labrum (made that up) will fall apart

Total biased nonsense

vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:49 pm Post subject:

defense wrote:

Runway8 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

If harden goes down
If jokic goes down
If Leonard goes down
If Giannis goes down
If Embiid goes down

Its the same for all the best teams. This isn't unique to the Lakers

Leonard who has a degenerative condition (confirmed) will be just fine

While Davis who he claims has a torn Labrum (made that up) will fall apart

Total biased nonsense

I'm unbiased to what the Lakers do, cause other teams can do whatever for all I care, but I'll focus on where potential Laker pitfalls may lie.

Don't intend to sound preachy, but prepare for the worst by us (get it, bias?) while expecting the best for them and that sets us up for any type of adversity we could face.

AD played with a torn left labrum for 3 years (confirmed). Dude knows how to manage that type of injury in season, before addressing it in the offseason.

@JustinVerrier
Anthony Davis says he's played through a torn labrum for three years

152
10:00 AM - Mar 21, 2016

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/3/21/11277978/anthony-davis-injury-shoulder-torn-labrum-3-years

Also his shoulder soreness in his right dominant arm is also showing up on the daily injury reports (confirmed).

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/los-angeles-lakers-team-injuries

Its almost a guarantee he gets the max next summer, so explorative surgery next summer (to either diagnose/repair or rule out the injury) or not, he's going to get that bag. Alot of cents.

Why put our franchise player in more duress if we can avoid it? That obviously goes for Bron as well and if we're just going to ride them without trying to look after their health and longevity, then that's nonsense.

Meanwhile I'm going to expect our opposition is at full strength so that we're prepared for anything and Kawhi has load managed his degenerative condition before and succeeded during the playoffs. So that's my expectation and we'll have to address our weaknesses accordingly. I'm not going to grab a snuggie and hope/pray we won't go through adversity at some point. Cause if I did, that would be total biased nonsense.

leking006
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Joined: 12 Oct 2018
Posts: 6339

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:55 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

Runway8 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

If harden goes down
If jokic goes down
If Leonard goes down
If Giannis goes down
If Embiid goes down

Its the same for all the best teams. This isn't unique to the Lakers

Leonard who has a degenerative condition (confirmed) will be just fine

While Davis who he claims has a torn Labrum (made that up) will fall apart

Total biased nonsense

So you want AD to just sit out the rest of the season?

defense
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Joined: 12 Jan 2010
Posts: 39451

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:58 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

Runway8 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

defense wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

If harden goes down
If jokic goes down
If Leonard goes down
If Giannis goes down
If Embiid goes down

Its the same for all the best teams. This isn't unique to the Lakers

Leonard who has a degenerative condition (confirmed) will be just fine

While Davis who he claims has a torn Labrum (made that up) will fall apart

Total biased nonsense

2016 I cant

vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:59 pm Post subject:

Be honest with yourselves for a second. Kuz isn’t getting minutes even when he was healthy and maybe that is Vogs being a defensive coach thing, but maybe it’s something else. Then consider his kinetic chain/stress rxn injuries. Then who’s the next man up ...Elmer Duddz? That’s our forward depth for Bron/AD. It’s beneficial for us to get Bron/AD close to 30mins per. Folks that can’t see or outright neglect our duos health and our championship chances are interlinked...I cant

leking006
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Posts: 6339

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:07 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Be honest with yourselves for a second. Kuz isn’t getting minutes even when he was healthy and maybe that is Vogs being a defensive coach thing, but maybe it’s something else. Then consider his kinetic chain/stress rxn injuries. Then who’s the next man up ...Elmer Duddz?

That’s our forward depth for Bron/AD.

It’s beneficial for us to get Bron/AD close to 30mins per.

Folks that can’t see or outright neglect our duos health and our championship chances are interlinked...I cant

Stop drinking coffee too much. Isn't it obvious that Bron is still pacing himself? I've been following Bron since day 1 and I can say it to you that he is still pacing himself specially in the first half when he is passive hence the TOs. Playoffs Bron is a different beast.

Annihilator
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Posts: 4035

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:09 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

"Sets us up for any type of adversity?" Are we having a hard time separating our own identity with that of the Lakers? There is really very little that fans need to do to help a team prepare for the worst.
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vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:19 pm Post subject:

leking006 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Nah, it’s the holidays, I’m hitting that nog pretty hard.

My noggin isn’t what it use to be, but I remember Bron activated playoff mode last year. And how that go? Dude came off an injury and just couldn’t hit that next gear. Maybe he needed to juice up with more caffeine...or maybe we need to learn from that experience. #Gro’inPains

Again, Bron & AD are backed by Kuz and Elmer...that’s all folks!

Anyways back to the Lakers +/-....Bron/AD are pretty good!

drae
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Joined: 13 Nov 2018
Posts: 16144

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:38 pm Post subject:

Why do you think we're racking up the wins early? Bron and AD will see some rest later in the season and we're building a nice buffer - 4 games above 2nd, 5.5 games above 4th that will ALLOW US to rest Lebron and AD heading into the playoffs. You are analyzing the Kawhi system incorrectly btw. The problem with Kawhi is how to manage him during the playoffs when he won't get any rest as well as obviously getting him there healthy, whereas the problem with LeBron is how to manage him only FOR the playoffs.

Aeneas Hunter
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Posts: 31763

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:48 pm Post subject:

PHILosophize wrote:

isn't PIPM the better metric?

When it comes to these sorts of metrics, most people rate the best metric as the one they agree with the most.

vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:12 pm Post subject:

drae wrote:

Why do you think we're racking up the wins early? Bron and AD will see some rest later in the season and we're building a nice buffer - 4 games above 2nd, 5.5 games above 4th that will ALLOW US to rest Lebron and AD heading into the playoffs.

You are analyzing the Kawhi system incorrectly btw. The problem with Kawhi is how to manage him during the playoffs when he won't get any rest as well as obviously getting him there healthy, whereas the problem with LeBron is how to manage him only FOR the playoffs.

That’s exactly the hope I and others have suggested. Exploit the early favorable calendar and then actively get the duo to play around 30mpg while developing the rotation players with a healthy margin of error.

I totally agree with that strategy.

Laker_Dynasty_01
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Joined: 06 Jun 2001
Posts: 1703

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:25 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

My noggin isn’t what it use to be, but I remember Bron activated playoff mode last year. And how that go? Dude came off an injury and just couldn’t hit that next gear. Maybe he needed to juice up with more caffeine...or maybe we need to learn from that experience. #Gro’inPains

Again, Bron & AD are backed by Kuz and Elmer...that’s all folks!

Any lower body injury that keeps an athlete from full speed drills for even two weeks will rob said athlete of their peak conditioning. LeBron missed about a month, and still wasn't ready when he came back.

"Elmer" is a steady vet who can easily handle 5-10 mins a game and be productive, dad bod or not. Kuzma has been hit or miss, but our lineups with him and Rondo are working very well in their 16 mins a game together.

We can also play three guard lineups with Kuzma at the 4.

Laker_Dynasty_01
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Posts: 1703

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:35 pm Post subject:

LakerLogic wrote:

The lack of playmaker outside of LBJ hurts AD a lot.

I thought this too, but he seems to do better without our only other playmaker when LeBron is sitting. Probably because Rondo isn't great in the 2-man game.

It will be hard to find a good match for our two stars with only Kuzma as trade bait. Crawford is probably better than most available options.

vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:10 pm Post subject:

Laker_Dynasty_01 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

That’s exactly why I said that. Dude had grade 2 strain and rushed back. I’m just saying, we need to learn from that and get ahead of it for this season.

Folks think that the groin strain was a fluke, but if you liked at Bron last year, he started off ball and then every month he would be more and more on ball with his usage rate going up.

If Bron goes down, that’s just more for AD to shoulder. It’s a vicious cycle.

I just look at our depth at the forward spot and imho i needs to be addressed. Elmer can play 5-10 minutes, but Vogs primarily has him glued to the bench. Kuz’s minutes have dropped off as well and I feel like it’s Vogs preference when it comes to defense.

There was a time in the 4th tonight where Bron headed to the bench for some rest and Vogs was forced to send him back out after a minute. Bron/AD hovering closer to 40mpg than 30mpg. Why?

Cause of Elmer and our lack of depth behind Bron and AD really isn’t helping things to cap those minutes. And that’s not even considering our playmaker issues. So that collectively is Jamming Bron up. We need to cut some bodies to make Space for dudes that can play more minutes, but also have it where Vogs is comfortable leaving them out there so our 2 can catch a breath longer than a minute.

Laker_Dynasty_01
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Joined: 06 Jun 2001
Posts: 1703

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:32 pm Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Laker_Dynasty_01 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

I haven't noticed Kuzma's minutes being decreased (unless you're comparing them to last year), can't remember when he sprained his ankle, but leading into his absence on the roadtrip he was getting his normal minutes. With him out, Elmer has been unglued from the bench.

AD/Bron are playing just under 35 minutes a game, as two of the top players in the league should be. And I don't know who we could acquire, in a buyout or otherwise, who would be good enough to behoove Lebron into giving up the ball. Two years ago, Jordan Clarkson lost his spot in the rotation next to LeBron on a team with no other playmakers.

Laker_Dynasty_01
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Joined: 06 Jun 2001
Posts: 1703

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:46 pm Post subject:

Just noticed Kuzma/Rondo's quality minutes all come alongside LeBron, they are a net neutral combo without him. 119 of their 213 minutes together in 13 games were with LeBron. We have a +23 net rating per 100 possessions with all three of them, +13 with Rondo/Kuzma in all minutes with/without LeBron. So that's about +0 with just Kuzma/Rondo together.

vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611

Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:36 am Post subject:

Laker_Dynasty_01 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Laker_Dynasty_01 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

McMenamin did a piece on Kuz recently and he said:

“A team source told ESPN that Kuzma has experienced more upheaval in his role than the team anticipated because Davis is playing less minutes at the 5 because JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard have filled that role so well. When Davis plays the 4, it pushes Kuzma out of the ideal stretch role he provides ... and challenges him to make the most out of playing out of position.”

So I’m not sure if this is impacting his minutes or not, but even if he takes the remainder of minutes at the 4, that puts him at about 13mins. Dude avgs 23mpg so he’s only taking about 10mins at the 3 behind Bron.

If there is so much upheaval caused by AD at the 4, why can’t they just sit Bron a little longer and play Kuz more at the 3? I mean there’s minutes to be had.

The thing about AD/Bron playing about 35mpg is that it accounts for all the routes we had where they sat large portions of the fourth...and even with those outliers, they’re at 35mpg. Meanwhile Giannis, Kawhi and George are all at 31mpg. And those dudes are our main competition.

Lastly, Bron has the 4th most total minutes played in 26 games with AD coming in at 10th most. There are only 3 teams with a duo playing that many total minutes: us, Htown (Harden/PJ Tucker) and the Blazers (CJ/Dame). Now consider out of those 3, which duo are legit superstars.

See I like Rondo as a playmaker, but we’re trying to get his ass to the playoffs too. So how does that work? We trying to load manage Bron with Rondo who needs load management himself.

All I know is that we got to start looking at options either in house or across the league that gets our superstars some much deserved load management.

Laker_Dynasty_01
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Posts: 1703

Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:32 am Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:

AD plays about 11 minutes per game at the 5, but some of those minutes have LeBron at the 4 with three guards.

LeBron averages about 36 mins when you don't count the six games where he played 30 or fewer minutes.

Bucks have played 10 games against teams that were the Charlotte Hornets or worse. They have more routs on their resume, and admittedly have more depth than we do. Take out the 10 games where Giannis averaged 30 or fewer minutes, he's also at around 36 mins per game. But the extra "nights off" in the East really help Milwaukee.

The Clippers also have more depth, but Lou only plays 8 minutes per game with the two All-NBA players. They have the opposite problem that we have - when the rotations get shorter in the postseason, does Lou revert to his 2017 form with the Rockets?

Rondo got hurt partially because Cook and Daniels aren't being trusted (for good reason), and he played about 28 minutes four times in six nights, causing his hamstring tightness. And Bradley was so close to coming back...

CRoost
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Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:28 pm Post subject:

Laker_Dynasty_01 wrote:

vasashi17+ wrote:

Vogel rotation is pretty solid. I think the guards are lock in and every single of them is hustling at the defensive end.

venturalakersfan
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Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:01 pm Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

PHILosophize wrote:

isn't PIPM the better metric?

When it comes to these sorts of metrics, most people rate the best metric as the one they agree with the most.

Doesn’t PIPM include real +\-? I read up on it some once but it’s been awhile. I remember being impressed because it combined multiple metrics. I feel that the more data you throw in, the more impressive is the number that comes out the end.
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moonriver24
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Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:14 pm Post subject:

leking006 wrote:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Here is the likely source of the statistical aberration:

http://www.82games.com/1920/1920LAL.HTM

Davis actually has a -2.8 net +/- even though he is crushing his opponents (+24.4 net production). This means that any APM metric is going to need time and lots of data to account for the substitution patterns.

On the other hand, this highlights what kind of effect Lebron has on the team.

The reason AD is -2.8 is maybe because Lakers usually have a run during the first 6 minutes of the 2nd Q and 4th Q where AD is usually sitting while during the last minute of the 1st and 3rd, when Lebron sits and AD remains in the court with no playmaker (when Rondo not playing) they kinda struggled. Also during this time AD is playing together with non defensive players like Kuzma, Daniels or Cook. That I think what affected AD's On Court +/-.

Lebron is thriving with AD because
1. opponents must pick to close in on Bron and let AD open to the basket unguarded (PnR)
2. opponents have to watch for AD down low or get punished with Bron's lop to AD. Nobody can go against AD when he fetches the ball with his vertical leap. Combined with shooters beyond the ark, opponents have to let Bron have lots of space to operate. Often he is left one on one with smaller defenders. There you see him driving to the basket almost unmolested.
3. McGee is often a target of easy lops or feedings when AD and Bron get most attention.
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