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Aeneas Hunter
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 Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:20 am Post subject: |
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| LarryCoon wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | There are at least two problems with this. First, there is a data problem. We really don't know how many cases there are, so a graph of diagnosed cases is inherently suspect. |
Not at all, and I'm sure you've read me writing about incidence vs. prevalence any number of times. You can really separate the cases of the undiagnosed for analyses like these (although admittedly the availability of tests is a confounding factor, but so is the non-diagnoses of some cases of COVID-19 mortality). But in general, a retrospective tracking of diagnosed cases isn't swayed by the difference between incidence & prevalence. |
It may persuade you, but you're still trying to draw conclusions from incomplete data. You're drawing a graph with diagnosed cases even though we know, with reasonable certainty, that this is just a subset of what we are trying to measure. Furthermore, we know that health officials made decisions about who to test and who not to test that were not based on science or medicine. This means that the data contains an extraneous bias for statistical purposes. So when you say that the difference between incidence and prevalence doesn't make a difference, that is a statement of faith, not fact.
| LarryCoon wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | I refer you again to the Nate Silver article on the subject. In fact, as shown by a chart in this 538 article, most infectious disease experts estimated that there were more cases as of March 30 than your chart shows as of April 6. Second, it is easy to confuse correlation with causation. I don't doubt that social distancing has had an effect, but there were a few experts (most notably the guy from Stanford) who projected a much smaller outbreak than some of the others. Of course, the scariest projections got the most attention, as was intended. However, there is a natural tendency to compare actual results to the scariest projections and to conclude that something is happening to save us. In fact, the scariest projections may turn out to have been wrong all along. |
This is pretty much all a non-sequitur to my actual point. |
No, it isn't. The first part goes right to the data issue. The second part goes straight to this statement by you:
| Quote: | | And since diagnosed cases of this indicate our behavior about 10-14 days prior to the point on the graph (the lag between infection and diagnosis) that correlates to more people taking this seriously and staying home, it looks like the measures have had an effect. Looks like we'd have at least a million cases by now without social distancing. |
So yes, you are interpreting correlation as causation.
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unleasHell
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:25 am Post subject: |
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Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)!
There is an excellent site on projections, when I first saw it 8+ days ago, California was estimated to peak on April 28, BUT since all the precautions have been working, the peak has been moved up TWO WEEKS, which means the END is now TWO WEEKS closer!
You can compare that to the US or any other state in this link as well:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california
stay safe, stay home and explore new music on YouTube...!
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JerryMagicKobe
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | * * * The weeds are tall and thick so enter at your own risk * * *
In looking at the coronavirus situation from a comparison perspective, I was wondering if there were other significant reasons why the US has such a high death rate. Currently, the US is 19th out of some 200 countries in coronavirus death rates.
So, I've selected several possible factors: latitudinal position relative to the equator, population density, international travel hubs, and of course, government, which we can skip so that the easily offended don't take their ball home.
What prompted this was how much greater is the death rate (approximately 33 times greater) of the US over Mexico. Is the population density of US that much more? No, actually Mexico has nearly double the population density of the US, so that is not a factor here. (South Korea has about 15 times the population density of the US, is about the same latitude, and has an international airport in Seoul, so how do we explain why South Korea has about 1/8 the deaths compared to the US, due to the virus.) Now Mexico is close to the equator and most countries closer to the equator seem to be doing better than others further away. Is that a factor?
If that was a driving factor, why does the US have approximately 4.5 times the death rate of Canada, much further away from the equator? Also Russia (if we can trust their data) is known to be a cold country and roughly in the same latitudinal space as Canada, has a much lower death rate than the US, 80-some times less. So the latitudinal position, by itself, is not the factor
Now if we look at international travel, according to international passengers per airport, we can see the US has 11 of the top 40 international airports. Mexico has only one, so the international travel to and from the US is much greater. Then again, the population of the US is nearly three times greater and the size (the area) is nearly five times greater, which does partially explain the greater number of airports. Still, international travel could be a factor of coronavirus deaths. If we look only at the US, Atlanta is the largest intentional airport. But Georgia has slightly lower the death rate than the US average, and the third largest airport, LA international in Cali, has a much lover than average death rate, about a third less than that of the US and Georgia. International travel, by itself, is not a factor
So what explains NY, or really, that area of southern NY, and NJ where we see such high death rates? Is it some combination? There is JFK international airport, there is a lot of density, and it is further away from the equator (Oh yeah, and that other factor, but I still don't want to get anyone's knickers in a twist). I would speculate that all contribute in varying degrees.
So this brings me to return to comparing South Korea, but this time to New York alone. As discussed, I believe we can eliminate latitude position, international travel, and population density as primary factors, as the differences are not great.
That leaves the only other factor as the primary explanation for why New York and the US have such a high death rate compared to the world as a whole. |
Published rates of infection and death are inaccurate and misleading due to outright lies (China/Russia) and scarcity of time and tests. Posthumous tests to confirm cause of death are no longer being done in areas with the higher incidence rates (NY). Also, if a person tests positive and has likely exposed family members, they report the one positive test but treat the exposed family members as though they have it as well. One positive test, but 2, 3, 4, 5... actual infected people. This under reporting means that the actual infection and death totals are far higher than published. This makes sheltering in place even more critical, especially in the short term. I have 2 family members who tested positive. Both in (different) rural locations, both 70+ years old and both infected during church activities, now recovering nicely after a rough couple weeks. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:09 am Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | * * * The weeds are tall and thick so enter at your own risk * * *
In looking at the coronavirus situation from a comparison perspective, I was wondering if there were other significant reasons why the US has such a high death rate. Currently, the US is 19th out of some 200 countries in coronavirus death rates.
So, I've selected several possible factors: latitudinal position relative to the equator, population density, international travel hubs, and of course, government, which we can skip so that the easily offended don't take their ball home.
What prompted this was how much greater is the death rate (approximately 33 times greater) of the US over Mexico. Is the population density of US that much more? No, actually Mexico has nearly double the population density of the US, so that is not a factor here. (South Korea has about 15 times the population density of the US, is about the same latitude, and has an international airport in Seoul, so how do we explain why South Korea has about 1/8 the deaths compared to the US, due to the virus.) Now Mexico is close to the equator and most countries closer to the equator seem to be doing better than others further away. Is that a factor?
If that was a driving factor, why does the US have approximately 4.5 times the death rate of Canada, much further away from the equator? Also Russia (if we can trust their data) is known to be a cold country and roughly in the same latitudinal space as Canada, has a much lower death rate than the US, 80-some times less. So the latitudinal position, by itself, is not the factor
Now if we look at international travel, according to international passengers per airport, we can see the US has 11 of the top 40 international airports. Mexico has only one, so the international travel to and from the US is much greater. Then again, the population of the US is nearly three times greater and the size (the area) is nearly five times greater, which does partially explain the greater number of airports. Still, international travel could be a factor of coronavirus deaths. If we look only at the US, Atlanta is the largest intentional airport. But Georgia has slightly lower the death rate than the US average, and the third largest airport, LA international in Cali, has a much lover than average death rate, about a third less than that of the US and Georgia. International travel, by itself, is not a factor
So what explains NY, or really, that area of southern NY, and NJ where we see such high death rates? Is it some combination? There is JFK international airport, there is a lot of density, and it is further away from the equator (Oh yeah, and that other factor, but I still don't want to get anyone's knickers in a twist). I would speculate that all contribute in varying degrees.
So this brings me to return to comparing South Korea, but this time to New York alone. As discussed, I believe we can eliminate latitude position, international travel, and population density as primary factors, as the differences are not great.
That leaves the only other factor as the primary explanation for why New York and the US have such a high death rate compared to the world as a whole. |
Published rates of infection and death are inaccurate and misleading due to outright lies (China/Russia) and scarcity of time and tests. Posthumous tests to confirm cause of death are no longer being done in areas with the higher incidence rates (NY). Also, if a person tests positive and has likely exposed family members, they report the one positive test but treat the exposed family members as though they have it as well. One positive test, but 2, 3, 4, 5... actual infected people. |
I appreciate that people read this, but please realize this was only semi-serious. There is the unspoken point not too subtly buried that our government has a sizable share in the extent of our coronavirus problems.
Also, my only mention of Russia did question if we can trust their data, and I said nothing about testing or the number of cases. I only used the data about the death rate. Even if the data about the death rates prove to be drastically wrong, then my semi-serious post will still be left with it's larger point. |
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ContagiousInspiration
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:14 am Post subject: |
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Illinois
https://www.dailydot.com/irl/video-police-illinois-black-men-face-masks-walmart-coronavirus/
| Quote: | “This officer right here behind us just followed us in the store… told us that we cannot wear masks. There’s a presidential order. There’s a state order,” Best said in the video.
The officer allegedly told the shoppers that they were violating a city ordinance that prohibits people from wearing masks inside stores. |
Guess the skin color of the shoppers the policeman removed for wearing maks? |
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unleasHell
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:16 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like. |
There is a difference between drawing credible conclusions and "What-If-ing".
What If-ing is why my wife has 120 rolls of toilet paper. And if someone wants to ignore or disbelieve facts then that's there choice.
A friends wife like to base her life decisions on the simple premise: "It's never happened before", which has led to her car and home being broken into...
As a Quality Manager for over 20 years, numbers are worth considering, worth collecting, worth analyzing, as they tell a story, they point to Trends and when Trends are found, real-world solutions can be directed towards them.
Fantasy-driven "What-If's" while often interesting and well meaning are basically only good for arguments on the internet, as you have so eloquently proven!
Cheers
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strong9
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:19 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like. |
I hear you AH, but I think it is probably a reasonable assumption that the externalities you identify have largely remained constant throughout the measurement period. I know that isn't a statistical certainty but it is a reasonable assumption especially since the messaging has been consistent in this respect throughout.
There is also the evidence from other countries with similar results. |
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JerryMagicKobe
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like. |
All the more reason to discount the words of Politicians and listen to the medical experts who seem to have one specific directive for everyone to follow: Avoid contact as much as possible.
No contact, no transmission. Urban or rural. Old or young. Essential or non-essential. If you are a human being, just listen to the medical folks and shelter in place for a couple weeks. |
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numero-ocho
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| ContagiousInspiration wrote: | Illinois
https://www.dailydot.com/irl/video-police-illinois-black-men-face-masks-walmart-coronavirus/
| Quote: | “This officer right here behind us just followed us in the store… told us that we cannot wear masks. There’s a presidential order. There’s a state order,” Best said in the video.
The officer allegedly told the shoppers that they were violating a city ordinance that prohibits people from wearing masks inside stores. |
Guess the skin color of the shoppers the policeman removed for wearing maks? |
That is so messed up. I had a feeling something like this was going to happen.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like. |
All the more reason to discount the words of Politicians and listen to the medical experts who seem to have one specific directive for everyone to follow: Avoid contact as much as possible.
No contact, no transmission. Urban or rural. Old or young. Essential or non-essential. If you are a human being, just listen to the medical folks and shelter in place for a couple weeks. |
Sure, but that's a different point. We're talking about projections of how the virus is spreading in the US.
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JerryMagicKobe
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | unleasHell wrote: | | Larry's right, since you can't chart what you don't know (suspect), you can only chart what you do know (facts)! |
But can you draw accurate conclusions from this? That's the problem. I'll give you an analogy, even though it is simplistic and can be nit-picked if you are so inclined. Suppose that you are sitting on a pier at a lake. There are a bunch of people around the lake with fishing poles. You start keeping a count of how many fish the various people catch (facts). You do this day after day. Based on this your chart of the number of fish that get caught each day, you draw conclusions about the growth or decline of the population of fish in the lake. Your conclusion might turn out to be accurate, or it might not.
This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Diagnosed cases of CV-19 may vary proportionally to the actual spread of CV-19, or they may not. There are external factors that affect the number of diagnosed cases, from availability of testing, to decisions that are made about who to test, to the willingness of people to be tested in the first place. Frankly, there are also political factors, and I do not mean conventional partisan politics. Around the world, national, state, and local governments have various motivations to manipulate the numbers. At this stage of the process, even the "facts" may not be as objective as we would like. |
All the more reason to discount the words of Politicians and listen to the medical experts who seem to have one specific directive for everyone to follow: Avoid contact as much as possible.
No contact, no transmission. Urban or rural. Old or young. Essential or non-essential. If you are a human being, just listen to the medical folks and shelter in place for a couple weeks. |
Sure, but that's a different point. We're talking about projections of how the virus is spreading in the US. |
I re-read the last 10 pages since your posts on Sunday, and it seems that the talk of projections stemmed from the discussion of the efficacy of social distancing in rural areas:
| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | DaMuleRules wrote: | | LarryCoon wrote: | Pretty cogent tweet thread from Steve Ilardi on the likely prevalence (number of people actually infected) and prospects for the future:
https://twitter.com/dr_ilardi/status/1246910759927525377
TL;DR: There are probably about 2.8 million infected people right now. We're headed for 64 million infections by early June, and 640,000 deaths by the end of June (about half of which will actually be recorded as such). |
Further example of why this idea that some state Governors don't need to engage in common sense prevention because of their "geography" is BS. |
Not really. Stay at home orders aren’t common sense prevention in a lot of places. |
Such as? |
Rural areas. |
If we now agree that listening to Doctors who say avoiding contact and sheltering in place are the best course of action everywhere including rural areas, then the accuracy of the reports (and the projections that result) from government data collectors is a secondary concern at best. |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | If we now agree that listening to Doctors who say avoiding contact and sheltering in place are the best course of action everywhere including rural areas, |
I agree that is accurate if there is one singular goal, to cease the spreading of the virus. That would be the advice to diminish violence, car accidents, STD's and a million other things. I do agree that diminishing the spread should be the primary goal right now....but it is never completely that simple, and will only become more complicated with each passing day. As it becomes more complicated, the less influence the experts in the medical profession will have as experts in other areas such as sociology, economics, etc. will gain influence on decision makers.
Last edited by adkindo on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | I re-read the last 10 pages since your posts on Sunday, and it seems that the talk of projections stemmed from the discussion of the efficacy of social distancing in rural areas: |
No, we're talking about Larry's chart now. Larry's chart does not relate to the discussion of rural areas.
| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | | If we now agree that listening to Doctors who say avoiding contact and sheltering in place are the best course of action everywhere including rural areas, then the accuracy of the reports (and the projections that result) from government data collectors is a secondary consideration at best. |
As to social distancing, sure. There is a separate issue about whether stay-at-home orders are effective in rural areas. That's a policy question. There is a distinction between social distancing and stay-at-home orders. In a number of states that are largely rural, the state and local governments are managing the situation in ways that are different from what you would see in a large urban area. As I've indicated, there are reasons for this.
I was struck by this Q&A with the governor of Iowa that was quoted in Newsweek:
| Quote: | "Dr. Fauci says that every state at this point should have a shelter-in-place. So what is your response to him?" a reporter asked Reynolds at a Johnston, Iowa press conference Friday.
"Maybe [Dr. Fauci] doesn't have all the information," the GOP governor replied. "You can't just look at a map and assume that no action has been taken. That is completely false."
"I would say to [Fauci], does he recognize that we have closed down schools?" Reynolds continued. "Is he aware of the various businesses that have been closed, the restaurants and bars that have been closed through April 30. We have implemented no social gatherings of more than 10 people. That we have added additional closures to the orders that I have put in place based on data and metrics that we daily look at and move forward." |
In other words, Iowa is managing the situation in a way that works for Iowa. They aren't holding Twister tournaments and calling the virus a fraud perpetrated by the Nancy Pelosi, George Soros, and China.
On a purely nerdy level, I must note that "shelter in place" gets misused a lot in this crisis. "Shelter in place" means that you do not leave your house, even for food. We're talking about "stay at home" orders. However, these terms have gotten commingled during this crisis.
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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I am not sure how it is in other parts of the country, but there is little to no difference in my area of Florida since the Governor issued his order. Many businesses that I would not consider essential are still open and appear busy from the parking lots. They closed my counties beaches including Daytona on Thursday, then rescinded that order on Monday....opening them for anything outside of sunbathing and group sports.
One thing that has become clear to me in this response is it is complicated. There is no one size fits all solution, and when one is put in place in that manner, the solution becomes the problem in some places. For example, since the CDC put out guidance nationwide to cease non-essential procedures, hospitals in my area have been hit hard financially and are beginning to cut medical professionals hours. I know in WV, several hospitals have began to furlough employees because most have not had COVID-19 patients, and are not performing other procedures. So many act like they have the solution, but their solution is only optimal in specific places. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | I am not sure how it is in other parts of the country, but there is little to no difference in my area of Florida since the Governor issued his order. Many businesses that I would not consider essential are still open and appear busy from the parking lots. They closed my counties beaches including Daytona on Thursday, then rescinded that order on Monday....opening them for anything outside of sunbathing and group sports.
One thing that has become clear to me in this response is it is complicated. There is no one size fits all solution, and when one is put in place in that manner, the solution becomes the problem in some places. For example, since the CDC put out guidance nationwide to cease non-essential procedures, hospitals in my area have been hit hard financially and are beginning to cut medical professionals hours. I know in WV, several hospitals have began to furlough employees because most have not had COVID-19 patients, and are not performing other procedures. So many act like they have the solution, but their solution is only optimal in specific places. |
We will see how Florida fares in the long run.
As for the health care workers, I understand there is lots of work up north. |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | I am not sure how it is in other parts of the country, but there is little to no difference in my area of Florida since the Governor issued his order. Many businesses that I would not consider essential are still open and appear busy from the parking lots. They closed my counties beaches including Daytona on Thursday, then rescinded that order on Monday....opening them for anything outside of sunbathing and group sports.
One thing that has become clear to me in this response is it is complicated. There is no one size fits all solution, and when one is put in place in that manner, the solution becomes the problem in some places. For example, since the CDC put out guidance nationwide to cease non-essential procedures, hospitals in my area have been hit hard financially and are beginning to cut medical professionals hours. I know in WV, several hospitals have began to furlough employees because most have not had COVID-19 patients, and are not performing other procedures. So many act like they have the solution, but their solution is only optimal in specific places. |
We will see how Florida fares in the long run. |
Yes, that is the only option we have at this point. So far, better than expected with our elderly population. We are the 3rd largest state (population) but have been staying in the #8 - #10 range of cases and deaths. I think most Floridians are hoping the rising temperatures will have a similar diminishing effect as it does with the flu, which may limit the hit the state will take. |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | As for the health care workers, I understand there is lots of work up north. |
That is great for all of those that take that action, but it is not logical for most medical professionals with families and responsibilities where they reside. It is an overly simplistic solution that people like to prescribe to others, but would struggle to take their own advice. |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block
Just an example of how complicated these things can be to prepare for in a Republic with changing elected officials at the national, state and local levels with finite resources. NYC stockpiled resources, but found it very costly to maintain, and even impossible because models were being discontinued. Of course everyone can examine in hindsight, and come up with all kinds of solutions that sound good from their couch.....but it does not work that way on the ground in real time. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | I am not sure how it is in other parts of the country, but there is little to no difference in my area of Florida since the Governor issued his order. Many businesses that I would not consider essential are still open and appear busy from the parking lots. They closed my counties beaches including Daytona on Thursday, then rescinded that order on Monday....opening them for anything outside of sunbathing and group sports.
One thing that has become clear to me in this response is it is complicated. There is no one size fits all solution, and when one is put in place in that manner, the solution becomes the problem in some places. For example, since the CDC put out guidance nationwide to cease non-essential procedures, hospitals in my area have been hit hard financially and are beginning to cut medical professionals hours. I know in WV, several hospitals have began to furlough employees because most have not had COVID-19 patients, and are not performing other procedures. So many act like they have the solution, but their solution is only optimal in specific places. |
I hear you. The stay-at-home orders have more holes than a whiffle ball. I’ve had to go to the office twice since the shutdown. The level of visible activity is reduced, but more like what you would expect to see on a Saturday under ordinary conditions. My friends who still go to work regularly (mostly criminal lawyers) say that the traffic is getting heavier every day.
I’ve heard similar reports about medical personnel getting furloughed, but my impression is that most of the hospitals here are still waiting to see whether we get a surge.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:29 pm Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | As for the health care workers, I understand there is lots of work up north. |
That is great for all of those that take that action, but it is not logical for most medical professionals with families and responsibilities where they reside. It is an overly simplistic solution that people like to prescribe to others, but would struggle to take their own advice. |
If I were a trained health care worker out of work and New York was begging me to provide some relief, barring some unknown situation, I most certainly expect I would. I have already asked about volunteering and they said there is not enough PPE for an untrained worker. |
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strong9
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | As for the health care workers, I understand there is lots of work up north. |
That is great for all of those that take that action, but it is not logical for most medical professionals with families and responsibilities where they reside. It is an overly simplistic solution that people like to prescribe to others, but would struggle to take their own advice. |
This is spot on. Very easy to offer up other people. My fiancee is an ICU nurse and her ICU is a Covid unit now, albeit in a relatively low impact area. She has all her PPE and is being taken care of. We've already had the talk that going to hotspots is an absolute no for us. I applaud all those that are going to hotspots to help. But not everyone needs to be a "hero". They can be human. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block
Just an example of how complicated these things can be to prepare for in a Republic with changing elected officials at the national, state and local levels with finite resources. NYC stockpiled resources, but found it very costly to maintain, and even impossible because models were being discontinued. Of course everyone can examine in hindsight, and come up with all kinds of solutions that sound good from their couch.....but it does not work that way on the ground in real time. |
That is why we have FEMA--though it must have the resources, inventory, training, and timely leadership to be effective. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block
Just an example of how complicated these things can be to prepare for in a Republic with changing elected officials at the national, state and local levels with finite resources. NYC stockpiled resources, but found it very costly to maintain, and even impossible because models were being discontinued. Of course everyone can examine in hindsight, and come up with all kinds of solutions that sound good from their couch.....but it does not work that way on the ground in real time. |
That is why we have FEMA--though it must have the resources, inventory, training, and timely leadership to be effective. |
True. On the other hand, I’m not sure that anyone could realistically have been prepared for the number of ventilators that NYC needs. It’s the shortage of masks and protective gear that makes me shake my head.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | How New York City’s Emergency Ventilator Stockpile Ended Up on the Auction Block
Just an example of how complicated these things can be to prepare for in a Republic with changing elected officials at the national, state and local levels with finite resources. NYC stockpiled resources, but found it very costly to maintain, and even impossible because models were being discontinued. Of course everyone can examine in hindsight, and come up with all kinds of solutions that sound good from their couch.....but it does not work that way on the ground in real time. |
That is why we have FEMA--though it must have the resources, inventory, training, and timely leadership to be effective. |
True. On the other hand, I’m not sure that anyone could realistically have been prepared for the number of ventilators that NYC needs. It’s the shortage of masks and protective gear that makes me shake my head. |
Agreed, and it looks like NY may squeak through on ventilators. If reporting is correct, between the Ali Baba dude, Cali, Washington, and Oregon, NY should have received some 3K+ extra by now. |
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