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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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 Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Cindy McCain to endorse Biden. If that helps Biden even .1% in Arizona, I say good. |
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ChefLinda
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 24166
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | digby @digby56
Act Blue has collected over 200 million dollars since RBG passed away. That has to mean something, right? |
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Robblake
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Joined: 05 Aug 2020
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| Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| If trump wins again America is really REALLY messed up. That isn’t hyperbole. |
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SweetP
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Joined: 23 Jun 2005
Posts: 6054
Location: My own little piece of reality
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| Posted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | | Quote: | digby @digby56
Act Blue has collected over 200 million dollars since RBG passed away. That has to mean something, right? |
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“There is always light if only we're brave enough to see it, if only we're brave enough to be it.” --Amanda Gorman |
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PartyMan
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Baron Von Humongous
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Joined: 02 Jul 2015
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:12 am Post subject: |
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| FernieBee wrote: | | Every day is a good day to die. |
Except today.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:50 am Post subject: |
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Former Bernie Sanders campaign surrogate Nina Turner opens up a boutique K Street lobbying firm called Amare...?
You love to see it.
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trmiv
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Joined: 19 Nov 2001
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Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:11 am Post subject: |
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Only one poll but the ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is not good for Biden
Florida
Trump 51
Biden 47
Arizona
Trump 49
Biden 48
Same Arizona poll only has Kelly up 1 point over McSally.
This poll has a weird RV/LV split though. On the RV side Biden is up in both, but on LV he’s down in Florida and only up 1 in Arizona.
Another poll with a larger sample from St Pete polls
Florida
Biden 50
Trump 47 |
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Wilt
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Joined: 29 Dec 2002
Posts: 13730
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:16 am Post subject: |
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| trmiv wrote: | Only one poll but the ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is not good for Biden
Florida
Trump 51
Biden 47
Arizona
Trump 49
Biden 48
Same Arizona poll only has Kelly up 1 point over McSally. |
It's not good because the crosstabs make no sense, as Trump is somehow winning the 18-49 group. ABC does good national polls, but this one is a mess.
Of course, everybody will be talking about it because IT'S TIGHTENING!!!
It's an outlier.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:19 am Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | Only one poll but the ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is not good for Biden
Florida
Trump 51
Biden 47
Arizona
Trump 49
Biden 48
Same Arizona poll only has Kelly up 1 point over McSally. |
It's not good because the crosstabs make no sense, as Trump is somehow winning the 18-49 group. ABC does good national polls, but this one is a mess.
Of course, everybody will be talking about it because IT'S TIGHTENING!!!
It's an outlier. |
This
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trmiv
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Joined: 19 Nov 2001
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Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:32 am Post subject: |
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| The Arizona one seems like an outlier given how close the Senate race is which is must closer than most polls. The Florida one seems more inline with exactly the kind of disappointment I expect from this state. |
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FernieBee
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:57 am Post subject: |
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The only poll that matters is the one that counts the actual votes.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:10 am Post subject: |
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| FernieBee wrote: | | The only poll that matters is the one that counts the actual votes. |
Yep. That's the reason I don't look at them and just try to look at the general pulse of what is being said and done. It's easy to look at the favorable polls and get excited and then see one that's not so good and simply dismiss it as being inaccurate. And then remind yourself what the polls said at the end of October 2016 . . .
As far as I am concerned, this race is going to closer than we think, because I think Trump/Putin is going to be successful in manipulating the election again.
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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trmiv
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Joined: 19 Nov 2001
Posts: 17659
Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:38 am Post subject: |
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| As far as outliers go that WaPo/ABC poll also had Biden up by 16 points in Minnesota last week. Which although I buy that Biden is polling ahead in Minnesota, 16 points seems like a massive stretch. So maybe their state polling methodology is a little off. |
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ribeye
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Joined: 10 Nov 2001
Posts: 12632
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:38 am Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | Only one poll but the ABC/WaPo poll from this morning is not good for Biden
Florida
Trump 51
Biden 47
Arizona
Trump 49
Biden 48
Same Arizona poll only has Kelly up 1 point over McSally. |
It's not good because the crosstabs make no sense, as Trump is somehow winning the 18-49 group. ABC does good national polls, but this one is a mess.
Of course, everybody will be talking about it because IT'S TIGHTENING!!!
It's an outlier. |
I don't know what to think of it, but what concerns me, if it is accurate, is that in Florida, 96% of Republicans are certain to vote, while only 91% of Democrats are.
On the other hand, Bloomberg raises $16 million to pay off fines and fees of Florida felons
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trmiv
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Joined: 19 Nov 2001
Posts: 17659
Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 am Post subject: |
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It boggles my mind that Trump stood in front of a rally in Minnesota the other day filled with mostly white people and said:
| Quote: | | "You have good genes, you know that, right? You have good genes. A lot of it is about the genes, isn't it, don't you believe? The racehorse theory. You think we're so different? You have good genes in Minnesota." |
But it barely moved the needle and didn’t get a ton of coverage because him being a racist piece of (bleep) is already baked in, plus he said and did 45 other crazy things before and after that. That one thing would be headline news for weeks with other candidates in previous years. Remember Romney and the “binders full of women”? Simpler times.... |
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ribeye
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Joined: 10 Nov 2001
Posts: 12632
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:19 am Post subject: |
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| trmiv wrote: | It boggles my mind that Trump stood in front of a rally in Minnesota the other day filled with mostly white people and said:
| Quote: | | "You have good genes, you know that, right? You have good genes. A lot of it is about the genes, isn't it, don't you believe? The racehorse theory. You think we're so different? You have good genes in Minnesota." |
But it barely moved the needle and didn’t get a ton of coverage because him being a racist piece of (bleep) is already baked in, plus he said and did 45 other crazy things before and after that. That one thing would be headline news for weeks with other candidates in previous years. Remember Romney and the “binders full of women”? Simpler times.... |
The followers of Adolf ought to be right proud.
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"A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo" |
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DaMuleRules
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Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 52656
Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:41 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | trmiv wrote: | It boggles my mind that Trump stood in front of a rally in Minnesota the other day filled with mostly white people and said:
| Quote: | | "You have good genes, you know that, right? You have good genes. A lot of it is about the genes, isn't it, don't you believe? The racehorse theory. You think we're so different? You have good genes in Minnesota." |
But it barely moved the needle and didn’t get a ton of coverage because him being a racist piece of (bleep) is already baked in, plus he said and did 45 other crazy things before and after that. That one thing would be headline news for weeks with other candidates in previous years. Remember Romney and the “binders full of women”? Simpler times.... |
The followers of Adolf ought to be right proud. |
It is sickening how much this behavior has become normalized. I would say it's shocking, but we've witnessed this play out for four years now.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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FernieBee
Star Player
Joined: 17 Nov 2003
Posts: 8033
Location: 921SD
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:52 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | As far as I am concerned, this race is going to closer than we think... |
I agree, as we don't know all the the shenanigans the POtuS and his minions & henchmen have in store.
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Garvey, Lopes, Cey, Russell |
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Omar Little
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Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:03 am Post subject: |
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There are already sourced stories that trump election officials are working on the methodology to have gop legislatures in swing states send alternate electors if he loses the vote in the state, and he’s talking openly about needing nine judges on the top court to deal with these “fraudulent ballots”. They aren’t just considering it, they are planning it and intend to do it.
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“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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Baron Von Humongous
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Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:26 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | There are already sourced stories that trump election officials are working on the methodology to have gop legislatures in swing states send alternate electors if he loses the vote in the state, and he’s talking openly about needing nine judges on the top court to deal with these “fraudulent ballots”. They aren’t just considering it, they are planning it and intend to do it. |
The only "good" part about this is that they're all wannabe Bond villains who like to announce their diabolical schemes ahead of time before tripping over their own shoelaces.
Anyway, if you or someone you know lives in a swing state, plan on voting early and in person unless you/they are physically unable.
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Under New Management |
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DaMuleRules
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Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 52656
Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | There are already sourced stories that trump election officials are working on the methodology to have gop legislatures in swing states send alternate electors if he loses the vote in the state, and he’s talking openly about needing nine judges on the top court to deal with these “fraudulent ballots”. They aren’t just considering it, they are planning it and intend to do it. |
The only "good" part about this is that they're all wannabe Bond villains who like to announce their diabolical schemes ahead of time before tripping over their own shoelaces.
Anyway, if you or someone you know lives in a swing state, plan on voting early and in person unless you/they are physically unable. |
And often. 
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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eddiejonze
Star Player
Joined: 19 Dec 2013
Posts: 7251
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | The quotes I'm reading about Amy Coney Barrett (likely candidate to replace RBG on the Supreme Court) make me think women and non-cis, non-straight people are in for alot of years of hurt in the future. |
All the women on Trump's list are right-wing religious zealots who think women should be subservient to men and wives should defer to their husbands.
So yeah, let's take women back about 100 years.
I can't even believe this is the United States of America any more.
If Biden wins and doesn't agree to suspend the filibuster and pack the courts, I'm not sure how I will mentally survive the future.
And - if this doesn't rile up suburban women on the fence I don't know what will. You think suburban women want to lose healthcare for their children and the right to choose for their themselves and their daughters? These are the same women who came out in waves over healthcare in 2018 for the blue wave that won back the House. |
Bye bye healthcare, women reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, and voting rights.
I've become somewhat desensitized these past 4 years. But even this has me tilted to the point where I'm minimizing my political engagement for a little while. |
Shout out to Susan Sarandon and the other "never Hillary" progressives who thought it was more important to send the "Democratic establishment" a message and Reproductive rights be dammned.
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Creatures crawl in search of blood, To terrorize y'alls neighborhood. |
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trmiv
Franchise Player
Joined: 19 Nov 2001
Posts: 17659
Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| eddiejonze wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | The quotes I'm reading about Amy Coney Barrett (likely candidate to replace RBG on the Supreme Court) make me think women and non-cis, non-straight people are in for alot of years of hurt in the future. |
All the women on Trump's list are right-wing religious zealots who think women should be subservient to men and wives should defer to their husbands.
So yeah, let's take women back about 100 years.
I can't even believe this is the United States of America any more.
If Biden wins and doesn't agree to suspend the filibuster and pack the courts, I'm not sure how I will mentally survive the future.
And - if this doesn't rile up suburban women on the fence I don't know what will. You think suburban women want to lose healthcare for their children and the right to choose for their themselves and their daughters? These are the same women who came out in waves over healthcare in 2018 for the blue wave that won back the House. |
Bye bye healthcare, women reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, and voting rights.
I've become somewhat desensitized these past 4 years. But even this has me tilted to the point where I'm minimizing my political engagement for a little while. |
Shout out to Susan Sarandon and the other "never Hillary" progressives who thought it was more important to send the "Democratic establishment" a message and Reproductive rights be dammned. |
Remember when Susan Sarandon said Hillary was more dangerous than Trump? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Screw her and all the entitled idiots that protest voted or stayed home in 2016. |
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Baron Von Humongous
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Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: | | There are already sourced stories that trump election officials are working on the methodology to have gop legislatures in swing states send alternate electors if he loses the vote in the state, and he’s talking openly about needing nine judges on the top court to deal with these “fraudulent ballots”. They aren’t just considering it, they are planning it and intend to do it. |
The only "good" part about this is that they're all wannabe Bond villains who like to announce their diabolical schemes ahead of time before tripping over their own shoelaces.
Anyway, if you or someone you know lives in a swing state, plan on voting early and in person unless you/they are physically unable. |
And often. |
Just bussing voters across state lines all October.
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