REAL GM = NEW, LONG ARTICLE ABOUT KWAME BROWN
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Now that you read the article, how do you feel:
We should trade for Kwame!
72%
 72%  [ 92 ]
No, the guy is no good.
27%
 27%  [ 35 ]
Total Votes : 127

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:05 pm    Post subject:

yesman wrote:
I'd love to get Kwame if they think he can make a turn around. But for Caron? Please no. 16 points a game last year, with 6 boards. I would send Brian Grant and our 2 first rounders from next year's draft.


Aside from the fact that the salaries aren't even remotely close to matching, the Lakers had better not have 2 1st rounders next year because that means that they had one of the 10th worst records in the league in the 05-06 season, which would be beyond unacceptable
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:27 pm    Post subject:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/12/AR2005071201558.html

This trade is all but finished. Brown's agrent Art Tellam met with Kupchak last night, I think this is a done deal. They will most likely take Butler and Divac, and then buyout Divac's contract. Lets hope this turns out OK.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:36 pm    Post subject:

Hmmmm... Let's lok at those stats some more:
10-11 shots => 16.72ppg, 9.16 rpg, on 53% shooting from the floor
> 12 shots => 20.2ppg, 11rpg, on 52.8% shooting
< 10 shots => 6.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg
So, Kwame does really well when he does really well, but does poorly when he is doing poorly.

Actualy, the author's shot count is off because Kwame took some shots in those games where he was fouled or committed an offensive foul. Now in December (the last month when all of the Lakers starters were healthy), the scoring averages were:
Bryant - 29.2 ppg
Odom - 15.1 ppg
Butler - 13.5 ppg
Atkins - 12.5 ppg
Mihm - 9.9 ppg

Odom averaged 37.5 mpg while scoring 15.1 ppg and I think 34 mpg is more realistic for Kwame, so that means if Kwame was the second option, based upon Decmeber, he could expect to score < 14 ppg. Even that may be overly optomistic, as Mihm will hopefully be more of an offensive force this season. That means Kwame will average less as the starting PF, probably < 12 ppg.

However, by the article's logic, that's not enough points to keep Kwame's head in the game. What the article's author is suggesting is that the Lakers trade away their #2 scoring option from the end of last season, declare Kwame the new #2 option before he has done anything to earn and ask the rest of the starters to sacrifice some of their scoring so that Kwame will keep interested. If that happens, than Kwame may be a success. If the #2 option is handed to Kwame and the rest of the starters don't sacrifice some points, Kwame may go into a vicious cycle in which he sin't playing well because he isn't getting his shots and he is getting his shots because he isn't playing well.

It is not worth the risk of Caron to me.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:55 pm    Post subject: Pretzel Logic

Dennis_D wrote:
Hmmmm... Let's lok at those stats some more:
...the author's shot count is off because Kwame took some shots in those games where he was fouled or committed an offensive foul. ...

....by the article's logic, that's not enough points to keep Kwame's head in the game.


Huh?

So now Kwame plays by a different set of rules than everyone else?

And a player's value to a team is determined by his point average?

If that's true, I guess you'd rather have Dominique Wilkins than Hakeem Olajuwon.

(incidentally, the author claims he needs 10 SHOTS a game - presumably 10 shots that count under league stat-keeping rules - in order to maintain his concentration. He makes no claim about the number of points Kwame needs. You do, though. I'm not sure I believe either of you, but at least the author used a level of analysis that is consisitent and in-line with any analysis that might be applied to any other player.)


Bent, folded, twisted, spindled, and mutilated analysis perfectly suited to justify a pre-determined argument.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:41 pm    Post subject:

DNA wrote:
Wait a minute, so he's actually 7'0 and 275 lbs now? Can do the drop step and hook shot, shut down Duncan, only guy who can defend Shaq without fouling, wow, wow, wow. I wasn't sure who was better between him or Nene, but I've no doubts now. Make the freaking trade Mitch!



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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:11 pm    Post subject:

Kwame for Caron. Need vs. luxury. You do that deal, & to make it even sweeter, why don't we shake the Wiz off their 1st round pick..
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:08 am    Post subject: on butler

all right, first of all, let's all be real here.

caron butler, to paraphrase J5, what he is and what he ain't. first, what butler is:
1) butler is 25 years old. (nobody disputes this--i hope.)
2) in a full allotment of minutes (slightly under 36MPG), butler put up 15.5 / 5.8 / 1.9 / 1.4 / 0.3 / 1.6 and .445 / .862 / .304.
3) in april, the last month (mostly garbage) butler put up 22.8 / 7.6 / 2.9 / 2.2 / 0.3 / 1.2 and .460 / .841 / .400. spectacular numbers over the span of 9 games: lots of points, boards, and steals, very few TOs, and solid percentages across the board.
4) after the break butler put up 17 and 6 nightly.

in other words, butler's a good player--a productive young swingman who is clearly undervalued. in a perfect scenario, the lakers would most definitely keep butler. of course, the lakers are not in that perfect scenario, and because of that, butler remains much discussed on the trading front. and why not? basically, butler is a highly tradeable commodity: young, talented, cost-effective, and productive.

the problem lies in the fact that he happens to play the same positions as kobe bryant and lamar odom. (yes, there are those who say odom is a power forward. to those people i say, respectfully, NOT!)

so one of the things that one must take into consideration is whether the situation is good for butler to continue to develop as a player. if you take a closer look at the statistics, you realize that butler put up his best numbers in april. this is where it is pointed out that--and this is NOT a coincidence--lamar odom did not play a single game in april. basically, butler was taking up the scoring slack for odom, and taking care of a lot of odom's responsibilities on the team--hence the increased scoring and rebounding averages.

now, the point is not whether butler is capable of being a highly productive player in the nba--he has clearly shown that he is a quality player. however, in the nba a team full of good players does not a good team make. a good team requires good players, yes, but more important, a good team requires players of complementary abilities.

having butler around is a luxury that any team would love to have but does it help the lakers if he's coming off the bench when in reality he knows in his heart that he should be starting and averaging 17-20 a night? and that when he plays with both lamar and kobe at the same time, invariably there will have to be an unequal parceling of shots?

consider a parallel example in phoenix, where quentin richardson was swapped for kurt thomas. qrich averaged 15 points and 6 boards a night for the suns. he, like butler, is 25 years old. phoenix did what was necessary and swapped qrich (and a future first) for thomas when the time was right. no hesitation on the part of the suns. they knew that with joe johnson and shawn marion in the fold, they simply addressed need through luxury and ended up signing raja bell to boot, thereby almost completely nullifying the impact of q's departure.

now the lakers are faced with a similar situation. kwame brown, make no mistake, is still a first-rate talent. this really will come down to whether phil jax feels like he can get something out of this kid--which is a tossup if you ask me. confidence is an elusive thing: it is borne through careful cultivation and constant reinforcement, and what happened to this kid is the same thing that happened to darko and, if caution is not taken, the same thing that can happen to bynum. brown is a player in need of rehabilitation and rehabilitation requires time and patience--things that may not be in great supply in los angeles.

if it were merely talent for talent, position for position, the trade is a good one. but all things considered, because of the histories of the players--kwame in particular--this is a big gamble. if it's a gamble that phil jax is willing and eager to take, (and which i hope he is), then there should be no question that this is a deal to take.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:12 am    Post subject:

Looks like the trade is all but done now.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: REAL GM = NEW, LONG ARTICLE ABOUT KWAME BROWN

cardom wrote:
http://www.realgm.com/src_goaltending/54/20050712/the_book_on_kwame_brown/

Very good read, check it out.


Amazing how an article can change people's beliefs in a flash.
Does someone need to find a counter article in order to get us on track and believe in our own player? Amazing. Look at the poll below. and I suspected that some actually changed their views after reading the article. I'd say this though, Caron has a much better chance of being an all-star then KWhyMe Bro?

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=4251
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:21 am    Post subject:

This is the key part of the article...and the reason so many people are willing to accept the loss of Caron:

Quote:
In the 25 games where he got ten or more shots in a game, his averages were:

16.72 ppg, 9.16 rpg, on 53% shooting from the floor.

Think about that; averaging ten shots a game, he’s posting about 17 ppg and nearly 10 rpg while shooting more efficiently than Tim Duncan usually does. This is before he really developed a jumper as well and before the refs started to give him a little respect on his spin move and while banging with his back to the basket.

In the six games he got twelve or more shots, he averaged:

20.2 ppg, 11 rpg, on 52.8% shooting. No real drop in efficiency and he became a 20/11 player.


Caron is clearly a fan favorite. It reminds me a lot of when the Lakers let Norm Nixon go way back when. Lakers fans loved Nixon, but the trade turned out to be the best thing that could happen. I like Caron too, and the fact that he gets along so well with Kobe is a plus, but man, the stats above are impressive.

Also, doesn't it seem likely that Phil and MJ spoke about Kwame before MJ drafted him and that Phil probably was and is probably high on this kid.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:24 am    Post subject:

Surfita wrote:
This is the key part of the article...and the reason so many people are willing to accept the loss of Caron:

Quote:
In the 25 games where he got ten or more shots in a game, his averages were:

16.72 ppg, 9.16 rpg, on 53% shooting from the floor.

Think about that; averaging ten shots a game, he’s posting about 17 ppg and nearly 10 rpg while shooting more efficiently than Tim Duncan usually does. This is before he really developed a jumper as well and before the refs started to give him a little respect on his spin move and while banging with his back to the basket.

In the six games he got twelve or more shots, he averaged:

20.2 ppg, 11 rpg, on 52.8% shooting. No real drop in efficiency and he became a 20/11 player.


Caron is clearly a fan favorite. It reminds me a lot of when the Lakers let Norm Nixon go way back when. Lakers fans loved Nixon, but the trade turned out to be the best thing that could happen. I like Caron too, and the fact that he gets along so well with Kobe is a plus, but man, the stats above are impressive.

Also, doesn't it seem likely that Phil and MJ spoke about Kwame before MJ drafted him and that Phil probably was and is probably high on this kid.


EXACTLY. Nobody seems to understand this: PHIL IS THE ONE PUSHING FOR THIS TRADE. Helooo, he didn't come back so Mitch can run the show.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:51 am    Post subject:

G_DawgLA wrote:
I want Kwame and Etan Thomas for Butler, George, and Cook and we're good to go.


I don't think so. If trade main goal is Kwame we should leave Etan on Wizs. I heard on 1540 interview with Washington writer and he said that it was mainly Thomas who tried to break hard Kwame on practice even more than MJ did.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:55 am    Post subject: Re: Pretzel Logic

RedSnapper wrote:
Dennis_D wrote:
Hmmmm... Let's lok at those stats some more:
...the author's shot count is off because Kwame took some shots in those games where he was fouled or committed an offensive foul. ...

....by the article's logic, that's not enough points to keep Kwame's head in the game.


Huh?

So now Kwame plays by a different set of rules than everyone else?

And a player's value to a team is determined by his point average?

If that's true, I guess you'd rather have Dominique Wilkins than Hakeem Olajuwon.


Maybe I wasn't clear - the author said that if Kwame got 10 shots in the box scores two seasons ago, he played great. The issue I tried to raise is "Will Kwame get enough shots on the Lakers to keep his head in the game?" I never said that Kwame had to score at least X to be a good player.

RedSnapper wrote:
(incidentally, the author claims he needs 10 SHOTS a game - presumably 10 shots that count under league stat-keeping rules - in order to maintain his concentration. He makes no claim about the number of points Kwame needs. You do, though. I'm not sure I believe either of you, but at least the author used a level of analysis that is consisitent and in-line with any analysis that might be applied to any other player.)


It has been my experience that basketball players are interested in how many points they get, not the number of shots. So, I translated Kwame's 10 shots to be 17 points and looked to see how that would fit in with the Lakers' point distribution last season. Again, my big concern is Kwame won't be able to get on the Lakers the number of shots (or points or touches) that he needs to keep his head in the game.

I also raised the issue that every shot on the court doesn't count as a shot in the box score. So, when the author says Kwame needs 10 shots to be in the game, he is apparently refering to 10 shots in the box score, which means more than 10 shots on the floor. I don't know any way of determining how many shots he actually took. There are only so many opportunities to score in a game and if the other starters have to reduce their opportunities from last season just so Kwame can keep his head in the game, I don't think Kwame will be accepted by his teammates.

RedSnapper wrote:
Bent, folded, twisted, spindled, and mutilated analysis perfectly suited to justify a pre-determined argument.


No it wasn't. I was impressed by the author's argument, but I have learned long ago that figures don't lie, but liars figure. I decided to delve into the statistics and see if the author's main thesis - that Kwame will be a success with the Lakers because he will get the number of shots here he needs to keep his head in the game - was likely to be true. Looking at the Laker's ppg distribution, I don't think it will be.

The author also made it sound like Kwame didn't get his shots last season and that's the reason he didn't play well. I also looked at average number of shots per minute for Kwame two seasons ago versus his two healthy months last season. Post All-Star two seasons ago, Kwame played his best and averaged 34.9 mpg, 9.0 fga, 8.2 rpg and 0.26 shots per minute while shooting 49.5%. In March last season, he averaged 28.5 mpg, 6.8 fga, 7.3 rpg and 0.24 shots per minute while shooting 40.9%. In April, he averaged 22.2 mpg, 6.6 fga, 4.2 rpg and 0.30 shots per minute while shooting 49.4%. When he came back from his injury, he got nearly the same number of shots per minute that he was getting Post All-Star the season before, but his shooting percentage was way down in March and his rebounding was way down in April.

What the author was trying to do was to get people to look at Kwame's best 25 games and to ignore the other 91 games over the last two seasons. He came up with nice story about how Kwame did so much better when he got passed the ball but lost focus when those meanie guards wouldn't pass to him last year. It's nonsense. Looking over his game logs for two seasons ago (link) and last season (link), I am struck by his inconsistancy. The difference between last season and the season before is the number of good games last year was less and not nearly as good.

Two seasons ago, Slava had 21 games where he had 10 or more shots. If I looked at the statistics for just those games, he would probably look like an awesome player. I don't think a small subset of games is useful for determining how good a player is.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Just took a look at the article...

Excuses, excuses, excuses.

Poor Kwame, for having a coach and teammates who wanted to win basketball games.

Poor Kwame, for being taken out of games for making "rookie mistakes." Did you see some of the school boy errors this kid was making? I remember watching one game (@ Milwaukee) where he didn't just forget to box out on an opponent's free throw attempt -- he forgot to move all together, not taking his eyes off the ceiling until after Kukoc had gotten the offensive bound and layup. An absolute laughing stock, the Bucks found it hilarious.

Oh, but, poor Kwame; he never gets enough shots. His head is only in it when he gets double figure FGAs, blah, blah. Who does he think he is? Shaq?! And the writer fails to mention the night when Kwame was having the game of his life, last season, and asked to be taken out in the clutch because he was "tired". It must have been that rigorous 14 mpg rookie season catching up with his old body.

And since when was this "flaming f**got" (MJ's words, not mine) the second coming of Bill Russell? He "shut down Tim Duncan"? Can successfully "guard Shaq one-on-one"? Has displayed a face-up game "similar to Amare Stoudemire"?

I must have missed it.

Pass on this pillock; give me someone who actually wants to play the game of basketball, won't whine about how many shots he gets (as a career 7 ppg scorer, no less) and won't be broken down to tears (as has been widely reported) at the first sign of criticism.

Just say no to Butler-for-Kwame.

But I'll take him for Slava/Cook/Sasha/picks.
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