Does LeBron James' Extension Kill Lakers' Hopes for Giannis Antetokounmpo?

 
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:15 pm    Post subject: Does LeBron James' Extension Kill Lakers' Hopes for Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Hey All,

Latest @BleacherReport Does LeBron James' Extension Kill Lakers' Hopes for Giannis Antetokounmpo? Why did LeBron only add 1 additional year onto his deal? What's next for AD?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2920751-does-lebron-james-extension-kill-lakers-hopes-for-giannis-antetokounmpo

Thanks!

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:53 pm    Post subject:

The team's best path next offseason might be using bird right to resign most FAs.

Schroeder, Kuzma, Caruso, Morris, THT. All of them are still (relatively) young and could generate interest in the market. No way to replace them with only the MLE to spend.

Could also use the taxpayer portion of MLE to resign Matthews and/or Gasol without triggering the hard cap.

The hard cap is problematic. The team is fortunate that Morris and Gasol signed for the minimum.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:53 am    Post subject:

The hard cap likely won't be an issue next offseason; with us likely to exercise all those bird rights on our own free agents we will go over the hard cap and thus be left with only the taxpayer MLE of about $6 million. Hopefully Wes agrees to take a smaller amount than that by re-signing with his own NBE. So now we're left with just that MLE and vet mins to replace Gasol (likely to retire), Harrell (likely to opt out and look for a bigger pay-raise than just the NBE), and to retain whomever else we might sign either now or during the buyout period. It will be tight but Rob has given me faith.

With the new commitments from both Lebron and AD, we will likely fall into that so-called Bird Rights trap however. You will probably see us paying Schroder and to a lesser extent Kuzma/AC more than we have for non-superstars in the past. It is easy to forget though that at one point we were paying Bynum almost 15 million and Odom almost 10 million on top Kobe and Gasol's MAX when the salary cap was about half of what it is now.

They will be paying the luxury tax definitely and rightfully so. They will probably manage to avoid the repeater tax though once Lebron retires/leaves.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:07 pm    Post subject:

With a prime AD for 5 years I'm not concerned about Giannis..
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:51 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
With a prime AD for 5 years I'm not concerned about Giannis..


Ya but the Lakers could use another superstar to pair with AD since Lebron James isn't getting any younger.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:58 pm    Post subject:

gng930 wrote:
The hard cap likely won't be an issue next offseason; with us likely to exercise all those bird rights on our own free agents we will go over the hard cap and thus be left with only the taxpayer MLE of about $6 million. Hopefully Wes agrees to take a smaller amount than that by re-signing with his own NBE. So now we're left with just that MLE and vet mins to replace Gasol (likely to retire), Harrell (likely to opt out and look for a bigger pay-raise than just the NBE), and to retain whomever else we might sign either now or during the buyout period. It will be tight but Rob has given me faith.

With the new commitments from both Lebron and AD, we will likely fall into that so-called Bird Rights trap however. You will probably see us paying Schroder and to a lesser extent Kuzma/AC more than we have for non-superstars in the past. It is easy to forget though that at one point we were paying Bynum almost 15 million and Odom almost 10 million on top Kobe and Gasol's MAX when the salary cap was about half of what it is now.

They will be paying the luxury tax definitely and rightfully so. They will probably manage to avoid the repeater tax though once Lebron retires/leaves.


Like you said, the team will have to (over)pay for their own free agents. Since most of them are unrestricted, the market will likely push up the price, and eventually push the payroll over the tax threshold.

I am more optimistic with Matthews and Harrell. Past his prime, Matthews had earned his big contracts. Harrell faced a cold market this year. It might be enough with 20% raise.

The problem with hard cap is not actually triggering it, but limiting the tools to bring in new blood via free agency (6M MLE) and trade(no S&T). That means the team has to:
1. keep players/assets, or trade them into equal value
2. convince quality players to come for the minimum
3. draft well with low picks

BTW, Bynum and Odom deserved the contracts when they signed. The team had to rus a Odom because he was upset with the cancelled Gasol+Odom for Paul trade. Injury lowered Bynum's value. Even then the FO was able to trade him into Howard. It just did not work out as wished.

Quote:

When a club uses the bi-annual exception, acquires a player via sign-and-trade, or uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception, that club will face a hard cap for the remainder of the league year.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:17 am    Post subject:

Injuries CRIPPLE Teams, plain and simple, Kobe's contract the last few years killed the Lakers for many years to come (coupled with signing Mozgoof & Dang)...

Golden State is another great example, after going to the Finals FIVE straight years (winning it all three times), they had three stars all making MAX (or near max) money and when all three got injured, it set them on the downward spiral they are now in. Last year they had the highest (or near highest) payroll and won 15 games! This upcoming season they are again the highest ($177mil), which is over $40mil higher than the Lakers and the year after next, they may be the highest again as the already have $159mil on the books! And the Repeater tax is going to start killing them too, as it starts doubling or something like that, meaning for three years (or more) they may be paying over $100mil in taxes due to how they managed their roster.

Lakers need to be mindful of not falling into this same rut, when LeBron is old/tired/injured/whatever - they have to know the difference between "rewarding a good soldier" and "cutting the cord"...!
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:40 am    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
Injuries CRIPPLE Teams, plain and simple, Kobe's contract the last few years killed the Lakers for many years to come (coupled with signing Mozgoof & Dang)...

Golden State is another great example, after going to the Finals FIVE straight years (winning it all three times), they had three stars all making MAX (or near max) money and when all three got injured, it set them on the downward spiral they are now in. Last year they had the highest (or near highest) payroll and won 15 games! This upcoming season they are again the highest ($177mil), which is over $40mil higher than the Lakers and the year after next, they may be the highest again as the already have $159mil on the books! And the Repeater tax is going to start killing them too, as it starts doubling or something like that, meaning for three years (or more) they may be paying over $100mil in taxes due to how they managed their roster.

Lakers need to be mindful of not falling into this same rut, when LeBron is old/tired/injured/whatever - they have to know the difference between "rewarding a good soldier" and "cutting the cord"...!


If Lebron had suffered an achilles injury like Klay, I wouldn't have extended him either. The Warriors resigned Klay AFTER he suffered that injury, which was mind boggling. They took a risk and now they have to pay dearly for that risk.

Lebron has been healthy as an ox and has shown no signs of slowing down. Only with Lebron would I give a contract like the Lakers just did. No other players, even if it's Kawhi, Giannis or AD would I give a max contract after 35.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:34 pm    Post subject:

lakersfever714 wrote:
unleasHell wrote:
Injuries CRIPPLE Teams, plain and simple, Kobe's contract the last few years killed the Lakers for many years to come (coupled with signing Mozgoof & Dang)...

Golden State is another great example, after going to the Finals FIVE straight years (winning it all three times), they had three stars all making MAX (or near max) money and when all three got injured, it set them on the downward spiral they are now in. Last year they had the highest (or near highest) payroll and won 15 games! This upcoming season they are again the highest ($177mil), which is over $40mil higher than the Lakers and the year after next, they may be the highest again as the already have $159mil on the books! And the Repeater tax is going to start killing them too, as it starts doubling or something like that, meaning for three years (or more) they may be paying over $100mil in taxes due to how they managed their roster.

Lakers need to be mindful of not falling into this same rut, when LeBron is old/tired/injured/whatever - they have to know the difference between "rewarding a good soldier" and "cutting the cord"...!


If Lebron had suffered an achilles injury like Klay, I wouldn't have extended him either. The Warriors resigned Klay AFTER he suffered that injury, which was mind boggling. They took a risk and now they have to pay dearly for that risk.

Lebron has been healthy as an ox and has shown no signs of slowing down. Only with Lebron would I give a contract like the Lakers just did. No other players, even if it's Kawhi, Giannis or AD would I give a max contract after 35.


It's odd how Golden State has now become a cautionary tale rather than the success story they once were. They are stuck with Klay's contract for the forseeable future and this is likely the last year of prime Curry. Draymond is probably already past his peak. Unclear what their path to another championship looks like.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:15 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
It's odd how Golden State has now become a cautionary tale rather than the success story they once were. They are stuck with Klay's contract for the forseeable future and this is likely the last year of prime Curry. Draymond is probably already past his peak. Unclear what their path to another championship looks like.


Like I said, it's gotta be a huge slap in the face of the owners, to win 15 games and still have to pay a huge over-the-cap tax bill..

Anyone know or can estimate how much they would have paid for last year or will pay this year??
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:41 pm    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
It's odd how Golden State has now become a cautionary tale rather than the success story they once were. They are stuck with Klay's contract for the forseeable future and this is likely the last year of prime Curry. Draymond is probably already past his peak. Unclear what their path to another championship looks like.


Like I said, it's gotta be a huge slap in the face of the owners, to win 15 games and still have to pay a huge over-the-cap tax bill..

Anyone know or can estimate how much they would have paid for last year or will pay this year??


How can GSW be a cautionary tale when they had 2 star players out?
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:40 pm    Post subject:

composite wrote:
unleasHell wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
It's odd how Golden State has now become a cautionary tale rather than the success story they once were. They are stuck with Klay's contract for the forseeable future and this is likely the last year of prime Curry. Draymond is probably already past his peak. Unclear what their path to another championship looks like.
Like I said, it's gotta be a huge slap in the face of the owners, to win 15 games and still have to pay a huge over-the-cap tax bill..

Anyone know or can estimate how much they would have paid for last year or will pay this year??
How can GSW be a cautionary tale when they had 2 star players out?
What makes owners of teams like the Warriors, Lakers, Spurs, Heat and a few others is that they don't think like the many naysayers and with a long term vision of success.

Warriors are not "stuck" with Klay's contract because he will soon be back playing at a very high level, Curry will have a few more years at the top of his game, Draymond will remain at the peak of his game for 2-3 years (since his game is NOT based on pure athletic ability) and their management have a clear vision of their future that will at a very high level

The teams to worry about are any team with Harden on the roster (this uber talented offensive player that needs to pound the ball can't bring a championship despite having an owner/GM/HC build a team to his specifications bringing players he wants like Dwight/CP3/Westbrook), Nets (with Kyrie always placing his stats above winning - same as Harden), Knicks (do we have to say more), Hornets (what is Mitch doing there - lol) and a few others that are listed at https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:42 pm    Post subject:

How would the Lakers play with AD and the Greek Freak (since he doesn't have an outside shot)?
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:52 am    Post subject:

One way of looking at the Lakers committing to Kobe or the Warriors committing max money to their 3 stars is that it's a cautionary tale because injuries can ruin everything. The Lakers experienced this also with the signing of Malone & Payton -- the season was a success until Malone got hurt. Or when they had Kobe, Howard, Pau and Steve Nash -- only to have Nash go down, Howard to play hurt and Kobe to end the season with an Achilles injury.

Championships are never guaranteed anyway, no matter if you have the Greek Freak or not. Someone could choke, you could lose one key player, you could have one bad call. The illusion of certainty is just that.

But another way of looking at this foolish overspending is that an organization's loyalty to its stars is noticed by other players in the NBA. If your organization has a reputation for treating its players like "assets" -- see Boston & Philadelphia & Houston -- nobody wants to come play for you.

You can bet that Lebron and Anthony Davis both noticed the Lakers' culture of loyalty and that it was part of their reason to commit, knowing they wouldn't get stabbed in the back later. The Warriors choosing to give Klay Thompson a great contract even after his injury spoke volumes about their culture too, regardless of the bind they appear to be in now.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:14 pm    Post subject:

Call me crazy, but I had no interest in Giannis coming here anyway.

The Warriors basically broke the NBA. They were so head and shoulders above the rest of the league it basically wasn't even competitive. If not for injuries, they would've won three in a row after getting Durant. I know there was drama brewing with Durant/Green for a while, but if they actually had threepeated I don't think Durant would've left. It's kind of like LeBron in Miami, where his return to Cleveland probably doesn't happen without Miami losing in the Finals to SA.

Giannis to LA would've been even worse than Durant to the Warriors. You would've had, at minimum, 3 of the 10 best players in the NBA on one team (some would even say 3 of the top 5). That's just terrible for the game. I think it would've been really harmful to LeBron's legacy too. Durant's legacy is imo heavily tainted by his move to GSW and a lot of people out there think his accomplishments have a huge asterisk attached to them.

I love seeing LA load up on talent. The team they've assembled this year is amazing. But Giannis in 2021 would've been overkill.
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