Running it back and the luxury tax

 
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markjay
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:18 pm    Post subject: Running it back and the luxury tax

I love the way this Lakers team is clicking. Let's say that they only get better and better as the season progresses, and win the NBA title again fairly easily. Furthermore, let's say that everybody on the team is interested in coming back.

How deep in the luxury tax do you think the owners would be willing to go to hold the team together? Theoretically, they could probably hold onto everybody, if they are willing to dig very deep into their pockets. This problem would theoretically last at least two years (through the 2022-2023 season) until LeBron's big salary comes off the books (though they'll get a tiny bit of relief in a year when Deng's salary comes off the book after the 2021-2022 season).

So what do you think, will they try to resign everybody? Or let someone (Schroder? Trezz? Caruso? THT?) walk? Or unload pieces (Kuz?) in a trade?


Last edited by markjay on Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:46 pm    Post subject:

Who knows? Even Dr Buss was willing to pinch pennies during the three-peat, not spending as much as he could and cutting the depth and even cutting Brian Shaw, who was absolutely essential in game7 against the Blazers so he could be brought back for a minimum contract to save a couple of million. How much money does the Buss family make separate from the Lakers? How crippling is the huge revenue hit from COVID?

I will say that I will be very surprised if we brought back everyone with their expected pay raises next season, even if we won a ring. That’s a lot of salary and lux tax. I would love to be surprised, though.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 2:57 pm    Post subject:

we absolutely run it back until lebron james retires. rattle off as many chips as we can.

Next year:

Dennis is a FA, says he wants to stay, will likely be extended.
Trez is a FA, biggest ??? for us I think. He'll want more $$$.
Caruso - MUST SIGN, I think he will stay.
THT - MUST SIGN, I think he stay too.

Wesley Matthews is a BAE level player, we probably do not need him.
Cook, Dudley and Morris are minimum players. We can probably find similar talent again.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:21 pm    Post subject:

KLUTCH will push the Lakers to not cheap out, even if AD/LBJ are extended long term.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:50 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
KLUTCH will push the Lakers to not cheap out, even if AD/LBJ are extended long term.


I highly doubt they cheap out but even keeping only a few of these guys at big raises will push the Lakers up to one of the highest cap numbers in the NBA fairly easily.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:10 pm    Post subject:

Let’s assume Kieff and Wes are gone or come back for min

THT, AC, DS. We have bird rights. I think DS will command minimum 18 mil range. THT and AC probably depends on how they play.
Trezz- no bird max offer is 11 mil - so unless we get a Klutch special, he is gone. Teams will offer him a lot of money.
I think emplay did a video on the luxury tax situation. If we are like 38 mil over the cap, we are looking at 120-130 mil luxury tax. Total payroll probably topping 300 mil. The NBA luxury tax is ridiculous. The repeater tax is crazy.
I don’t know if Jeanie is willing to shell out 300 mil payrolls even the lakers bring in far more income. She is not a rich owner

The nets faces the same issue. Although their own is joe tsai, part owner for alibaba. He can easily afford it if he wants
Same thing for the dubs. They have more big contracts than us.
The kuzma deal is really good for us. We probably got him a little cheaper.
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markjay
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:12 pm    Post subject:

nomoreshaq wrote:
we absolutely run it back until lebron james retires. rattle off as many chips as we can.

Next year:

Dennis is a FA, says he wants to stay, will likely be extended.
Trez is a FA, biggest ??? for us I think. He'll want more $$$.
Caruso - MUST SIGN, I think he will stay.
THT - MUST SIGN, I think he stay too.

Wesley Matthews is a BAE level player, we probably do not need him.
Cook, Dudley and Morris are minimum players. We can probably find similar talent again.


Dennis seems to have the advantage of timing. He can extend at a higher salary as early as mid-February. I’m guessing the Lakers pounce on that to lock him up.

As for the others, I assume they will keep at least one of AC, THT, and Trezz, probably at least two, and hopefully all three.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:34 pm    Post subject:

Are the Lakers officially Tax payers this year? If so, it's only by a couple of Mil. But it would count as a year towards the 3 in 4 repeater condition.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:59 pm    Post subject:

I think Kuz is the most vulnerable to being moved at his salary. Not this year though.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:34 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think Kuz is the most vulnerable to being moved at his salary. Not this year though.


I think there's a possibility that he'll be seen as a steal at his current contract. He just doesn't really shine bright because he doesn't get the same rookie year touches where all he had to do was finish, but he's vastly improved off ball and defensively since then. Even the rebounding and weakside shotblocking had an uptick, that wasn't expected.

A team might just thing, man, that's a 20ppg guy at around 13mil a year. Yeah that's worth it.

That's all it takes.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 7:14 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, one of the main sub-plots going forward. Our salaries this year full team are $135 million, and next year, even with only 7 guys under contract, we are already committed to $121m in 2022 and $111m in 2023. Yeah, in sports they don't even play with Monopoly money anymore, its like the big money games we had as kids Life or Stock Market, athletes make crazy money. There is also the difference between being super-rich (Like the Buss Family) and the corporate super-rich like Steve Balmer. Balmer can afford to pay a $50-100 million tax bill added to his salary, its almost a sign of avarice - being to light cigars with hundred dollar bills and or use stacks of money to heat the fireplace. It's not our money as fans, but I try to think about it like it was my money, what I would do.

First up is Schroder - we can offer him next month I think a 4year $18m a year deal. I think we will know right away, will that be good enough or whether he will wait till the offseason and leave elsewhere for more money. My gut says he will take it, sacrifice a little extra money and have a chance to win rings here.

Montrezl - his $9.7m for next year will likely come off of the books as he walks in free agency.

Matthews - I think is only back if he takes the Vet. minimum, play the Dudley role. 50/50 on what he will do, though he did want to play as a Laker like his Dad, so we will see.

Dudley - my guess is this is his last year.

Cook - might be back again, especially if Dudley retires and Matthews leaves.

Morris - I am really surprised Balmer didn't find a way to give him some money, just to take him away from the Lakers. Kind of like Howard, no one really offering him much yet. My guess is someone next year will offer him $7m or so, and he is gone.

Tucker - How much does he get offered in free agency? Really, I wish he would do like what Alex did the past 2 years, take $2.75 million while he develops into a great player. I really would not want to pay him $10.3m a year yet, but that's just me.

Caruso - With so many teams having cap space, I could see somebody offering him $10-12m a year on a 3 or 4 year deal. It's kind of crazy, but we gave Kuzma that kind of money starting next year. I think we try to keep him, especially if we miss out on some of our guys.

Kuzma - signed, but he gets expensive next year. $13 m a year for two more years plus a players option. To make some room, I see him getting traded to some team with lots of cap space, that can't easily acquire free agents. Would someone like OKC give us a future first rounder to get him? Maybe the Pelicans give us back own of our picks for him?
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:59 pm    Post subject:

Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:05 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
I think Kuz is the most vulnerable to being moved at his salary. Not this year though.


I think there's a possibility that he'll be seen as a steal at his current contract. He just doesn't really shine bright because he doesn't get the same rookie year touches where all he had to do was finish, but he's vastly improved off ball and defensively since then. Even the rebounding and weakside shotblocking had an uptick, that wasn't expected.

A team might just thing, man, that's a 20ppg guy at around 13mil a year. Yeah that's worth it.

That's all it takes.


Relative to some of the contracts his draft classmates signed, he's almost a bargain, and if he plays like this all season, he will definitely be one.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:03 pm    Post subject:

Hector the Pup wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
I think Kuz is the most vulnerable to being moved at his salary. Not this year though.


I think there's a possibility that he'll be seen as a steal at his current contract. He just doesn't really shine bright because he doesn't get the same rookie year touches where all he had to do was finish, but he's vastly improved off ball and defensively since then. Even the rebounding and weakside shotblocking had an uptick, that wasn't expected.

A team might just thing, man, that's a 20ppg guy at around 13mil a year. Yeah that's worth it.

That's all it takes.


Relative to some of the contracts his draft classmates signed, he's almost a bargain, and if he plays like this all season, he will definitely be one.


Eventually we have cut some corners though. Kuz playing the utility guy for us means he is the most expendable. If we resign Schroder and someone overpay Caruso, I think we have no other choice but to let him go. I rather have Caruso in this team than anyone else beside Lebron and AD. If THT continues to grow, he might make Schroder expendable. I think it’s imperative to keep both though even if someone backload TNT. I think Trez will get paid so he’s more likely a year rental. I’m just hopin whatever happen, Caruso will be with us for the long run.
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mad55557777
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:08 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.

Yeah, thanks Jim and Mitch....
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:38 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.


Those are pretty team friendly contracts. I'd be shocked if Trezz will only be getting 11 after the next season whether he's here or elsewhere. I have a feeling Schroder is going to want that February near 19 mill max to stay with the Lakers but at 16 instead that would be a no brainer. THT could easily be 9.5 if other teams want him which there are supposedly already several only a month into the season. 9.5 could be low for Caruso as well if he sustains his 3 point shooting on top of looking like a much improved passer.

I'd be thrilled to see your numbers though since we'd have a much easier path to sustained success and a bunch of extremely tradable contracts.

That's kind of sickening seeing the Deng number though
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:32 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.


Deng is still getting paid millions by the Lakers? He hasn't been on the team in like 5 years, lol! Nice job Mitch.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:40 pm    Post subject:

hype wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.


Those are pretty team friendly contracts. I'd be shocked if Trezz will only be getting 11 after the next season whether he's here or elsewhere. I have a feeling Schroder is going to want that February near 19 mill max to stay with the Lakers but at 16 instead that would be a no brainer. THT could easily be 9.5 if other teams want him which there are supposedly already several only a month into the season. 9.5 could be low for Caruso as well if he sustains his 3 point shooting on top of looking like a much improved passer.

I'd be thrilled to see your numbers though since we'd have a much easier path to sustained success and a bunch of extremely tradable contracts.

That's kind of sickening seeing the Deng number though


Would have to be a wink wink deal with Trezz, we could offer a longer term deal the following year. Caruso and THT will both probably be MLE level.

To be honest,I dont believe Schroder is playing well enough to command a deal starting at 19-20M right now. That would be 85M/4 years. A 17-18 AAV seems pretty fair.

I will say teams will be loaded with cap space with not many quality players, so all of our guys could be receiving large offers
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:30 pm    Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:
hype wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.


Those are pretty team friendly contracts. I'd be shocked if Trezz will only be getting 11 after the next season whether he's here or elsewhere. I have a feeling Schroder is going to want that February near 19 mill max to stay with the Lakers but at 16 instead that would be a no brainer. THT could easily be 9.5 if other teams want him which there are supposedly already several only a month into the season. 9.5 could be low for Caruso as well if he sustains his 3 point shooting on top of looking like a much improved passer.

I'd be thrilled to see your numbers though since we'd have a much easier path to sustained success and a bunch of extremely tradable contracts.

That's kind of sickening seeing the Deng number though


Would have to be a wink wink deal with Trezz, we could offer a longer term deal the following year. Caruso and THT will both probably be MLE level.

To be honest,I dont believe Schroder is playing well enough to command a deal starting at 19-20M right now. That would be 85M/4 years. A 17-18 AAV seems pretty fair.

I will say teams will be loaded with cap space with not many quality players, so all of our guys could be receiving large offers


Good work and hopefully Caruso stays and THT doesn't get any huge 3rd and 4th year offers.

Trezz is the one I'm concerned about. I'm more concerned about a "wink wink" deal as even a 1+1 PO offer is going to look obvious. Teams like the Clips will hire PI's, have models wear a wire, drones, who knows what kind of circus that could spark. I hope they keep him, but with more options this year I can't expect the young man to pass on long term 15-20M/yr offers.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:26 am    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:

Deng is still getting paid millions by the Lakers? He hasn't been on the team in like 5 years, lol! Nice job Mitch.


He took that 20 year annuity instead of the one time cash out option. Seriously, I'm pretty sure that there is some language in that contract that the Lakers pay it for 30 years or something, it never seems to go away.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:35 am    Post subject:

fansincemagic wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
hype wrote:
dcarter4kobe wrote:
Couple assumptions here

1. Wes/Morris will likely walk unless they agree to return on vet min deals (Morris deserves more)
2. Schroder re ups for 3/52 or 4/71M (starting at 16M)
3. Trezz opts out and resign using non bird right. Klutch Agreement for bigger deal the following year or use Tax MLE for a big
4. Caruso re ups for MLE type deal
5. THT reup for 8-10M deal

LeBron 41.1
AD 35.3
Schroder 16
KCP 13
Kuzma 13
Trezz 11.
Caruso-9.5
THT-8
Gasol- 2.7
Draft pick 1.9
UDDFA 1
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
VM 1.6
Deng 5
Total 162.4M
Lux Tax Payment-64M with a $4.25 tax for every $1 we spend over that.

Lakers payroll will likely be around 220-230M next year. Not as much as some of these 300M projected payrolls (or Nets/Warriors payroll).

Fun note-Deng's contract would cost the Lakers 24M in the example above including the lux tax.


Those are pretty team friendly contracts. I'd be shocked if Trezz will only be getting 11 after the next season whether he's here or elsewhere. I have a feeling Schroder is going to want that February near 19 mill max to stay with the Lakers but at 16 instead that would be a no brainer. THT could easily be 9.5 if other teams want him which there are supposedly already several only a month into the season. 9.5 could be low for Caruso as well if he sustains his 3 point shooting on top of looking like a much improved passer.

I'd be thrilled to see your numbers though since we'd have a much easier path to sustained success and a bunch of extremely tradable contracts.

That's kind of sickening seeing the Deng number though


Would have to be a wink wink deal with Trezz, we could offer a longer term deal the following year. Caruso and THT will both probably be MLE level.

To be honest,I dont believe Schroder is playing well enough to command a deal starting at 19-20M right now. That would be 85M/4 years. A 17-18 AAV seems pretty fair.

I will say teams will be loaded with cap space with not many quality players, so all of our guys could be receiving large offers


Good work and hopefully Caruso stays and THT doesn't get any huge 3rd and 4th year offers.

Trezz is the one I'm concerned about. I'm more concerned about a "wink wink" deal as even a 1+1 PO offer is going to look obvious. Teams like the Clips will hire PI's, have models wear a wire, drones, who knows what kind of circus that could spark. I hope they keep him, but with more options this year I can't expect the young man to pass on long term 15-20M/yr offers.


According to the rumors, which I find hard to believe, he already turned down a 80M contract to sign the MLE with us. If he does walk, we will be in the market for our big with our tax payer MLE. Washed big name like Blake Griffin, Aldridge? Younger names like Noel/Portis? Not much out there.

Also why I would like take a flier on a younger developmental big like Justin Patton. Prepare him for next season when Trezz might walk and Gasol is a year older (if he returns)
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:10 pm    Post subject:

The Lakers front office and the coaching staff values Kuz and what he brings to this team far more than this fan base does.

I wouldnt say its a forgone conclusion that he will be moved this year or for the duration of his contract.

Lakers fans have been trying to trade this man for the last 3 years and he's still here.
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