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leking006
Star Player
Joined: 12 Oct 2018
Posts: 6385
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 Posted: Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | leking006 wrote: | | ThePageDude wrote: | | leking006 wrote: |
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Like I said the reason is 3pt shooting with only Gasol shooting good at 40% the rest was 27% in those 15 games even with AD and DS. Because of that slump, they are now at the bottom of overall 3pt shooting this season, add to that AD is not 100%, he only average 22 ppg this season compare to last season.
Once AD return 100% and get back to his form last season and their shooting up even at average %, they will be hard to beat. |
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The 3P% sounds like a reasonable candidate so I thought I'd do a bit of digging. Here are prior and current year numbers for our "shooters" playing 15+ minutes/game (in order of 3 point field goals attempted per game):
LBJ: .348 -> .358 (6.6)
KK : .316 -> .363 (4.8)
KCP: .385 -> .408 (3.9)
WM: .364 -> .341 (3.3)
DS : .385 -> .305 (3.1)
MM : .333 -> .299 (2.7)
AD : .330 -> .293 (2.5)
AC : .333 -> .388 (2.4)
THT: .308 -> .281 (1.9)
(Ignore MG who didn't play last year)
Our 3 highest volume shooters are actually doing better this year. In fact, taken together these 9 are doing almost exactly the same as last year (32.4 vs 32.3 points scored off 3's by these 9 - I was rather surprised by this).
So .. the 3-shooting from our main rotation seems to have stayed pretty much the same as last year - roughly half the guys are shooting better but the other half are doing worse. |
Keyword "last 15 games" smh
They are shooting the lights outs in their first 15 games hence the good avearge. The losses piled up when they start their shooting slump after a win vs bucks.
I dont know what you are pointing at. Maybe you want to blame it on the defense, that's why you keep on pushing that they are shooting well. |
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leking006
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Joined: 12 Oct 2018
Posts: 6385
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ThePageDude
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
Posts: 2581
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 5:38 am Post subject: |
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| leking006 wrote: |
<snip>
Keyword "last 15 games" smh
They are shooting the lights outs in their first 15 games hence the good avearge. The losses piled up when they start their shooting slump after a win vs bucks.
I dont know what you are pointing at. Maybe you want to blame it on the defense, that's why you keep on pushing that they are shooting well. |
Why so sensitive? This is a discussion board, I supplied factual data, I haven't claimed anything, just pointed out what the data shows. We're here to discuss and learn right? I don't pretend to have the answers that's why I come here to discuss and learn.
I didn't bother to look at the last 15 games (it would be trivially easy to do so). I find the overall season more interesting because:
* 15 games is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions
* we know it's a biased sample because 2 of the starters were injured and out (not just recency bias, but non-representation bias)
Over the course of a large number of games events tend to average out and thus larger data-sets speak much better about the team's true ability. That is what I'm interested in - is this team capable of winning it all, and if there are weaknesses, what are they? defense? (doesn't seem so), 3-point shooting (no worse than last year), offense? (haven't looked at the data yet) |
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M2K
Star Player
Joined: 20 Feb 2011
Posts: 2432
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:13 am Post subject: |
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| Halflife wrote: | | Stats lie |
_________________
A three headed monster... Jeannie, Pelinka, and Ham... another terrible season. |
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governator
Retired Number
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 25092
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:20 am Post subject: |
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| ThePageDude wrote: | | leking006 wrote: |
<snip>
Keyword "last 15 games" smh
They are shooting the lights outs in their first 15 games hence the good avearge. The losses piled up when they start their shooting slump after a win vs bucks.
I dont know what you are pointing at. Maybe you want to blame it on the defense, that's why you keep on pushing that they are shooting well. |
Why so sensitive? This is a discussion board, I supplied factual data, I haven't claimed anything, just pointed out what the data shows. We're here to discuss and learn right? I don't pretend to have the answers that's why I come here to discuss and learn.
I didn't bother to look at the last 15 games (it would be trivially easy to do so). I find the overall season more interesting because:
* 15 games is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions
* we know it's a biased sample because 2 of the starters were injured and out (not just recency bias, but non-representation bias)
Over the course of a large number of games events tend to average out and thus larger data-sets speak much better about the team's true ability. That is what I'm interested in - is this team capable of winning it all, and if there are weaknesses, what are they? defense? (doesn't seem so), 3-point shooting (no worse than last year), offense? (haven't looked at the data yet) |
Hope it was a 'slump', a long one but recoverable. When AD comes back and I mean back to his 27ppg, dominating, which should open up the kick out 3s, let's see how we do |
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MJST
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Joined: 06 Jul 2014
Posts: 26383
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:22 am Post subject: |
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I do wish AD was playing at that level already before he had to miss time (like KD was for the Nets). But he was in coast mode just as LeBron was. So he'll have to turn it up once he gets back instead of easing himself into it, while at the same time not being able to push too hard because we don't want to reinjure him. It will be an interesting situation.
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How NBA 2K18 failed the All-Time Lakers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxMBYm3wwxk |
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governator
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Joined: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 25092
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:27 am Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: | | I do wish AD was playing at that level already before he had to miss time (like KD was for the Nets). But he was in coast mode just as LeBron was. So he'll have to turn it up once he gets back instead of easing himself into it, while at the same time not being able to push too hard because we don't want to reinjure him. It will be an interesting situation. |
yeah, just get our two stars healthy coming into the playoff, AD had quite a drop from his MVP/DPOY level, down to regular all-star lol but he's young, we'll be fine. Once the two stars play at MVP level, the role players will feed of that |
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DrDent
Franchise Player
Joined: 30 Jun 2016
Posts: 12975
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| Posted: Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:07 am Post subject: |
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I suppose my only contribution to this thread is this.
Sure, ok. But as someone else said, let's add some interpretation of the data, but now outside of this forum: Vogel said (I want to say even before AD went down, and very likely after he did as well) they need better rim protection. Their announcers said they needed to protect the paint better when AD was playing (I believe just before he went down). And then what did the front office do during this 8 game span where the data is suggesting a top ranked interior / paint D?
They grabbed a 6'11, 245 pound, athletic shot blocker to...protect the paint (who had very little to do with the data provided as he played, what, all of 5-10 minutes in 1 game?).
With much respect to my fellow purple and gold lovers, the actual "professionals" tasked with looking at everything: Observing games, reading stats after, etc, etc ended up going with a defensive center.
So what does that mean? Who knows. Could be just because AD was out and when he comes back Jones will be let go, or be stuck in a deep bench role never to be seen again until blowouts. Or it could be they have a role in mind for him in certain games, certain matchups, or certain times when that interior D (in the past) has seemed to open up like the ocean.
As for 3 shooting...to me it's pretty indisputable their overall 3 shooting has been awful ever since the Bucks game. But the Lakers cut a guy who can actually hit those if he played more (Cook) for a defender. Could be they just think their guys are in a slump and will get out of it. Shrug.
One other thing: The paint is not a tiny space. One thing we know from Vog is this with his defense: They want to run guys off the 3, and protect the rim with drop coverage. I've heard him concede in interviews that means they will have to give up something as a result and that is a "mid-range" jumper...could that also be at the furthest from the basket area of the "paint"? |
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defense
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Joined: 12 Jan 2010
Posts: 39531
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| Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:46 am Post subject: |
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| M2K wrote: | | Halflife wrote: | | Stats lie |
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And have no effect on the next game or playoff intensity
See last season
Clippers
Philly
Milwaukee
Boston
Utah |
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