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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:54 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
I'm a fan of Mitchell and Butler, but 100% you draft Nix, Cooper, and Giddey over them.


I actually like Mitchell/Butler the most here, even if Nix and Giddey have the best vision and Cooper is more of a question mark with his size/athleticism combination.

Older, smallish college PGs come and go every year and few really hit in the pros.


Oh I agree. I'm trying to go on skill set vs. "use this thought process."

That being said, Jared Butler is 20, 21 in late August.

By the LAL pick, I expect Cooper gone and I'd look elsewhere anyway.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:59 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Giddey's wingspan is 6'8"

I love jumbo initiators, but Giddey is the one guy where I question the athleticism/length a lot. Even Kyle Anderson has a 7'2" wingspan and SR of a PF.

Butler and Mitchell have the least flaws of Nix, Giddey, etc.

Outside of Mitchell's defense and Butler's jumper, I think Nix, Cooper, and Giddey have clear strength advantages - all are superior passers; Cooper's elite driving; Giddey and Nix as rebounders - while having youth on their side to shore up some of their skill weaknesses.

Giddey with his athletic limitations and mediocre perimeter shooting still gets downhill a surprising amount against grown men. I think he's faster in a straight line than Slo-Mo with a quicker first step even if he's stiffer than Lonzo through the upper body.


Giddey's shooting has jumped tremendously in recent months. I just don't know where you put him defensively. Same with Nix. That leaves Cooper. All 3 are clearly elite passers over Butler/Mitchell, by tiers too.

But all I mentioned was the weaknesses of the above 3, despite their strengths. It's almost a perception game of Butler/Mitchell having higher floors (Mitchell's shooting is going to regress, but he's still a solid guard and a 1/2 defender) and Butler has the higher level handles + jumper + height + age as well.

I'm not worried about Giddey's first step. He manipulates the defenses without really using a first step; but that's an advantage of jumbo initiators too.

It's, where in the world can you play guys like Giddey, Nix, Cooper, where they aren't absolute total liabilities.

This is why I want Vrenz.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:59 pm    Post subject:

Rewatched championship game. Butler's handle is so much tighter than Suggs.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:51 pm    Post subject:

^Yeah the part that never made sense to me is, even with Butler's handle being so advanced, he doesn't know more efficient dribbles to get him the space that he needs, so he defaults to high degree of difficulty dribble moves instead.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:33 pm    Post subject:

Does Miles McBride have PG skills?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:59 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Does Miles McBride have PG skills?


Some. Prob best next to a heliocentric initiator. I'd still take him late 1st.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:37 am    Post subject:

Jericho Sims. I liked him last year but he did not declare and forgot about him this year with Greg Brown and Kai Jones on the team. Reminds me of Jarrett Allen physically, athletically and court play. From highlight vids he appears to have improved offensively but I like him for his defense. Haven't seen him mentioned in any mocks. Early 2nd a possibility?
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Jericho Sims. I liked him last year but he did not declare and forgot about him this year with Greg Brown and Kai Jones on the team. Reminds me of Jarrett Allen physically, athletically and court play. From highlight vids he appears to have improved offensively but I like him for his defense. Haven't seen him mentioned in any mocks. Early 2nd a possibility?


I'd rather have Sandro. Sims is a great rebounder, but not really a guy that moves the needle in terms of draft when LAL just had Damian Jones as a 10 day contract guy.

Too many guys I like in the late 1st that'll go early 2nd that would be considerably more talented as well.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:21 am    Post subject:

Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:34 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


So who is this years Obi?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:52 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


So who is this years Obi?

Davion
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:37 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


So who is this years Obi?

Davion


I had the same thought but I backed away as I could not come up with a major weakness for Davion that would be magnified and exploited to the extent he becomes unplayable.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:52 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


So who is this years Obi?

Davion


I had the same thought but I backed away as I could not come up with a major weakness for Davion that would be magnified and exploited to the extent he becomes unplayable.


Age, FT%, physical maturity to NCAA competition, outlier shooting year behind the arc, low FTR despite build.

If he can't shoot, and he can't draw FTs well, and when he does, he's 64%, what does he do best?
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:54 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


On a team without a real PG, it's not much of a surprise.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:55 am    Post subject:

JT Thor is testing waters.

https://twitter.com/byNathanKing/status/1374418487620214794
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:30 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


On a team without a real PG, it's not much of a surprise.

Definitely. The Knicks were a bad spot for him even before Julius' breakout season, but I stupidly bought into the NYK tank before the season and assumed they would run a bunch of Barrett/Toppin PnRs while losing a lot. Silly of me to think Thibs would ever sign on to run a tank.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:30 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
JT Thor is testing waters.

https://twitter.com/byNathanKing/status/1374418487620214794

I'm intrigued.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:01 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
JT Thor is testing waters.

https://twitter.com/byNathanKing/status/1374418487620214794

I'm intrigued.


It really isn't much outside of physical tools and 3-point shooting ability, but I think he's just testing waters to get feedback.

It'll be a bit of a rude awakening. Personally I think he's one year away or OKC ends up getting him and doing well.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:33 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, how bad does the Obi Toppin pick look?


So who is this years Obi?

Davion


I had the same thought but I backed away as I could not come up with a major weakness for Davion that would be magnified and exploited to the extent he becomes unplayable.


Age, FT%, physical maturity to NCAA competition, outlier shooting year behind the arc, low FTR despite build.

If he can't shoot, and he can't draw FTs well, and when he does, he's 64%, what does he do best?


Physical maturity is actually a + for me. He is well built with size and strength who is ready to compete from his 1st year. I trust the shooting and I feel it is the norm where players make the leap in their 3rd or 4th years. A good sign is the mid-range appeared to be a natural shot for him. Is there stats for this?

He has good handles and can envision an increase in his FTR if he prioritizes that part of his game. A good coaching/development staff surely would help. The FT% just seems odd but normally that should be the easiest to improve for a player.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:55 pm    Post subject:

^I think Physical maturity is a + when it goes by age. This just makes him a senior player.

Hoop math shows the shooting stats.

But FTr? REALLY hard to improve on because it goes back to ball handling/strength which are already in his case, and yet he has a FTr worse than Malachi Flynn out of college?

Doesn't make sense to me. Lack of explosiveness (but good vert) doesn't help him here either.

FT% is the indicator for the rest of his shooting, especially for the past 4 years. The FT% being that bad is a reflection of an outlier shooting year, not anything sustainable. Usually it's the FT% / touch around the rim that's really great before the rest improves and holds consistently.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:58 pm    Post subject:

FTr improvement - I believe it depends on what type of development/coaching he receives once in the league. The Lakers staff seems optimal with Handy, Kidd and also having Lebron as mentors.

FT% - understand the relationship but it is not always a forbearer of shooting success. 2 Laker examples at the opposite spectrum are Schroder and Ingram.

Is it that difficult seeing Davion increase his FT% into the low 70's% given all the special training players receive via team staff or independent specialist?

edit: looking at hoop math is it a good indicator that 34.6% of his shots came at the rim. Butler was 24.2%. Also only 7.7% of his 2 pt shots were assisted. Butler 18%,

Thanks for the website. I might subscribe.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:17 pm    Post subject:

Historically, it's insanely difficult to improve FTr, no matter the prospect.

Ingram is exactly the reason why Mitchell may not be sustainable. He's had a more or less the same FTr even with the big difference in physical tools. Nevermind the amount of coaching he took on every offseason to work on his shooting. Ingram at 21 is a better shooter than Davion now.

Most of the accelerated growth already happened while BI was in the NBA. Mitchell, did his at Baylor. So what upside is left to tap?

But sure if you believe in that development, go ahead. Mitchell already proved enough with his other 3 prior years at Baylor in regards to shooting.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:57 pm    Post subject:

I agree there is not much upside to tap but like all prospects who first enter the league there are areas they can improve that are more subtle in nature but still be impactful to their production. They now have the dedicated time to not only work with professionals in improving their skills but also more available time to hone their craft. Obviously quite a few do and the rest who don't wash out of the league.

I am not expecting a drastic leap in any one area but like most prospects I expect gradual improvements in their court skills as they adapt to NBA competition. I don't feel my expectations are unreasonable.

Just to clarify Davion played 1 year at Auburn and 2 years at Baylor.

edit: isn't Davion having 34.6% of his shots at the rim indicate potential to improve his FTr? In the title game he got to the rim a few times but he was not fouled and made the basket.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:44 am    Post subject:

^Davion is 22.6 years old. Usually transfers/redshirt players have a leap year immediately after.

He's a high floor player, but to me, the difference between him and say, another player like Josh Hart, is giant, even if Davion is the better ball handler and passer.

Just a world of difference #s wise, and that's why I believed in Hart, even as a senior player.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/josh-hart-1.html
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:26 am    Post subject:

Couple things.

The high floor and the position he plays is why I have high regards for him. If the 3pt shot translates even with some regression that is a winning player for me.

I had questions on Hart as he won over his defender by using his size and strength to gain favorable court position where he could execute. I was not sure that would translate against NBA athletes but he has proven it does. He did tweak his shot mechanics before his rookie year to help with his outside shooting which he mentioned in a workout video.
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