If the 2005 NBA Draft Were Done Over, Who Goes #1?
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Who Is YOUR #1 Pick
Bynum
11%
 11%  [ 13 ]
CP3
45%
 45%  [ 51 ]
D-Will
42%
 42%  [ 48 ]
Bogut
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Other
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 112

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Laker_Dynasty
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:24 am    Post subject:

Knowing what we know now, I'd say it's still a difficult call. The only thing I can say is that Marvin Williams would drop significantly and Drew would be in the top 4 without a doubt.

All GM's have different takes on who to draft and who not to draft. Also, if "need" should be more considered than "talent" or vice versa. At first, I had written a long explanation, but I think the easiest thing to do would be to conceptualize the top 5 players replacing the other lottery pick on each respective teams 2005-2006 roster. I'm including Granger in the discussion, with Drew replacing Marvin Williams.

When I look at the overall picture and the teams that controlled the top 5 picks, I honestly think that the Atlanta Hawks would have benefited the most from having a great point guard. It's already 6 years from when they got Joe Johnson, and even though they picked up Kirk Hinrich to run the point, for a long time they had searched for the right point guard. Even when they picked up Bibby, he didn't have the impact to the team that they needed.

If we go even further into looking at who would be #1, you'd also have to consider that (although they wouldn't be #1 picks), they'd still be MUCH higher than they were drafted. Those two (2) players are David Lee and Monte Ellis. Those are players that would've had immediate impact. I'd put them at drafted #6 or #7 (can go either way), but either of them being on Portland or Toronto would've made a good impact.
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Laker_Dynasty
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:30 am    Post subject:

calistrtballr wrote:
Chris Paul is no longer a superstar. He can't carry a team like he used to before his injury. Ask any Hornets fan...
1. Deron
2. Bynum
3. Ellis
4. Bogut
5. Paul
6. Granger


Really? I hope the GM views it like that too, cuz maybe they'd be willing to trade him over to the Lakers for scraps!...
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70sdude
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:26 pm    Post subject:

LA_Lakers_Rule wrote:
Supa wrote:
Bynum would probably be number one overall. Bigs are always valued and most of the time overvalued in NBA. Even though CP3 and D-Will are superstars, they can't carry and have an impact on a team that Bynum potentially can. Look at him now, the Lakers would not trade him for either smalls the way he's playing.


BINGO!!!!

... This person GETS IT!!!!! ... It's nice to see a person can THINK OUT OF THE BOX... and understand the question and what it is getting at...

.... Everyone is answering the question based on THEIR OWN OPINION WHAT THEY WOULD DO...

The POLL QUESTION is asking people to put their GM HAT ON!!!! (I'm not sure some on this board are capable of this I didn't expect a lot of people on this board to get what the poll question was about really but I figured more would have than is the case)...

The point..... GM's WILL ALWAYS VALUE SIZE, especially size that Bynum has...

.... Think about all the bigs (often Centers) through the years that have gone much higher than one would expect?

Supa - IS EXACTLY RIGHT!!!... BIGS (especially Center) ARE OFTEN "OVERVALUED".... While I figured not that many would figure this out I would have thought more on this board would...

THINK PEOPLE.... Why was Sam Bowie picked over Michael Jordan.... Ans: SIZE... HE WAS A CENTER (with a lot of potential to be an impact player at that position) more than anything else...

Look at the draft THAT YEAR in '84.... Stockton (arguably a top-2 PG historically in the NBA) was drafted #16... and 13 of the 15 players picked ahead of Stockton WERE BIGS!!!

Look at EVERY draft... BIGS AND CENTERS TYPICALLY DOMINATE THE TOP PICKS!!!!

I'm going back to the '84 draft because of the huge mistake made picking Bowie (CENTER) over MJ....

84 DRAFT:
1 Akeem Olajuwon - BIG (CENTER)
2 Sam Bowie - BIG (CENTER)
3 Michael Jordan
4 Sam Perkins - BIG (can play Center)
5 Charles Barkley - BIG
6 Mel Turpin - BIG (CENTER)

A few more drafts going forward from there....

85 DRAFT:
1 Patrick Ewing - BIG (CENTER)
2 Wayman Tisdale - BIG (F/C)
3 Benoit Benjamin BIG (CENTER) - anybody remember him (some will)?
4 Xavier McDaniel (forward)
5 Jon Koncak - BIG (CENTER) - anybody remember him?
6 Joe Kleine - BIG (CENTER) - anybody remember him (some will)?

86 DRAFT:
1 Brad Daugherty - BIG (CENTER)
2 Len Bias
3 Chris Washburn - BIG (CENTER) - anybody remember him?
4 Chuck Person - (forward)
5 Kenny Walker - (forward)
6 William Bedford - BIG (CENTER) - anybody remember him?

I went back to when Michael Jordan was drafted because it was such a blatant example of how GM's place SUCH A PREMIUM ON BIGS and have very often OVERVALUED BIGS HISTORICALLY....

.... I'm NOT going to post every DRAFT YEAR, but you will probably find that THE TOP TWO PICKS ALMOST EVERY YEAR INCLUDED A BIG AND 80-90% OF THE TIME IT WAS A CENTER!!!!

... Just some more EXAMPLES to think about regarding HOW CENTERS ARE considered A PREMIUM by GM's...

Remember Shawn Bradley (Center) drafted #2, he was drafted ahead of Penny Hardaway...

Remember Michael Olowokandi a CENTER drafted #1 and Raef LaFrentz #3 another CENTER, BOTH drafted ahead of players like Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter to a large extent simply BECAUSE THEY WERE CENTERS

The 2001 draft had FOUR CENTERS at the TOP 4 SPOTS (Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry)

Darko Milicic was picked ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade BECAUSE HE WAS A CENTER (notice Kaman was pick 6th that year thus 5 of the top 6 picks were bigs)

Don't forget Greg Oden was picked at #1 ahead of KEVIN DURANT!!! Why?... because he was a CENTER more than anything!!!!

I'll end with the very draft we are talking about which is probably one of the best examples of what I'm talking about here....

Andrew Bogut was picked #1 BECAUSE HE WAS A CENTER ahead of players like Marvin Williams (a BIG), Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton

... THE GREAT MAJORITY ON THIS BOARD ARE PICKING DWILL AND PAUL AHEAD OF BYNUM IN THIS '05 DRAFT...

.... NOTICE THAT TWO BIGS WENT AHEAD OF THESE TWO SMALLS!!! WHY BECAUSE BIGS ARE CONSIDERED PREMIUM BY ALL THE GM'S IN THE LEAGUE .... TWO BIGS WERE DRAFTED AHEAD OF THESE PLAYERS... CLEARLY GM'S WOULD HAVE PLACED A PREMIUM ON BYNUM KNOWING WHAT WE KNOW NOW...

Most of you guys FAILED here, IMHO.... BECAUSE YOUR NOT PUTTING ON YOUR GM HAT!!!!

.... From the perspective of how MOST GM's think... IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF THE DRAFT CENTERS ESPECIALLY BUT BIGS IN GENERAL ARE VALUED VERY HIGH AND THE OP IS EXACTLY RIGHT MANY TIMES HAVE BEEN OVERVALUED over the years....


What's strange about your response is it stands in direct opposition to the composition of the original draft. The supposed smart GM's who drafted big over small through #10 got screwed at a far worse rate than the ones who drafted small. Only Bynum has panned out to be a strong contributor, and he's a part-time player for six seasons. The Big over Small phenomenon repeats itself because the GM's are slow learners and desperate men.

We LGers are not that dumb.
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oldschool32
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:13 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
But make no mistake about it - with Bogut (and assuming the Gasol trade), we'd be going for a 4-peat right now.


Because he's immune from debilitating, season ending injuries that cause him to miss the playoffs? His elbow practically snapped off last year, he missed the postseason, and he's still suffering greatly from the aftermath of that.

2008-09: 36 games played (missed all of February, March, & April w/back injury)
2009-10: 69 games played (missed last two weeks of season & entire postseason)
2010-11: 54 games played (missed 12 games, and is shooting career lows in FG% and FT%...by a wide margin...due to the elbow)


At least be consistent.


Yep Bogut is far from an iron man either. I don't think he is as big of a difference maker as Drew is, and secondly we wouldn't be having a 4-peat if the guy only played in what, 1 or maybe 2 playoffs?

As for comparing the stats as someone else did earlier, of course Bogut would average more, he has averaged 13 more mpg over his career compared with Drew. He also is one of the focal points of his team's offense.
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Sister Golden Hair
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:15 pm    Post subject:

Bogut is a good player and probably an ideal type center for PJ's version of the Tri.

But Andrew is more of a difference maker and, as someone noted, Bogut has had his own share of injuries, some just as freakish as Andrew's.
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LA_Lakers_Rule
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:41 pm    Post subject:

70sdude wrote:


What's strange about your response is it stands in direct opposition to the composition of the original draft. The supposed smart GM's who drafted big over small through #10 got screwed at a far worse rate than the ones who drafted small. Only Bynum has panned out to be a strong contributor, and he's a part-time player for six seasons. The Big over Small phenomenon repeats itself because the GM's are slow learners and desperate men.

We LGers are not that dumb.


You've got some valid points of course... but IF the question the OP is asking is WHAT WOULD THE GM's DO?

.... Then as you can see they would have likely picked Drew #1 and certainly IN THE TOP THREE, no doubt about it...

.... Your right about a lot of misses, but the mentality is that IF they get a Center that pans out then they've got a huge asset to build a team around....

.... and one other VERY IMPORTANT POINT... If you look at all the BLOWN PICKS you will find JUST AS MANY IF NOT MORE SMALLS that don't work out either....

... THE FACT IS IF YOU LOOK AT FIRST ROUND PICKS THROUGH THE YEARS I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO FIND THAT MORE THAN HALF DON'T LAST MORE THAN 5 YEARS IN THE NBA AND THERE ARE STILL MANY MORE PLAYERS PICKED THAT ARE NOT CENTERS... just a guess (I haven't checked it out at all, so I could be wrong)....

.... you have to keep in mind that THE DRAFT IS A HUGE GAMBLE most of the time and the fact is THERE ARE MANY MORE FAILED PICKS (no matter whether big or small) THAN PICKS THAT WORK OUT AS EXPECTED... It is the nature of the draft... WAY TO MANY UNKNOWNS and OPPORTUNITY FOR FAILURE...

.... It's similar to the fact that 90% of all business start-ups fail in the end... Nobody starts up a business with the intention to fail and most do have a reasonable game plan... it's just that there are so many variables that can bring a fledgling business down...

... The DRAFT in many ways is a CRAP SHOOT... Sure there are a handful of players that are pretty much LOCKS to be a success... but those are VERY FEW... Most of the time there is a large element of gamble involved and I wouldn't be surprised to find that there is an EVEN LARGER RATE OF FAILURE FOR SMALLS THAN FOR BIGS SIMPLY BECAUSE BIGS WILL STICK AROUND SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THEIR SIZE MORE THAN SMALLS WILL...

If you think about it if a GM is going to "gamble" there going to "gamble BIG and go for the BIG!!!! .... If you get what I mean...

.... So it REALLY ISN'T SO MUCH THAT WE LG'rs are that much "smarter" is it?

.... it has more to do with the RISK/REWARD factor and GM's tend to be willing to "gamble" on that HUGE REWARD with the chance of turning their franchise into a contender in a much shorter time frame than going for smalls in most cases combined with the fact that the MAJORITY OF PICKS even in the lottery don't quit reach expectations in a great many cases anyway....
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Last edited by LA_Lakers_Rule on Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:00 pm    Post subject:

GMs pick promising bigs ahead of promising smalls because of the rarity of their skill sets. How often do you hear, "they're a good wing player away from being a title contender."? Not very. But you hear it a lot as it relates to bigs.

So as a result, the failure rate is much higher, because GMs know how hard it is to get a good big, and that their only real vehicle to do so is through the draft. It's a lot easier to find good smalls to fill out a roster that's built around a dominant big than it is to do the opposite.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 2:04 pm    Post subject:

^ Yep, which is WHY Drew would have gone very high in that draft knowing what we know now... Easily in the top 3 and most likely a #1 pick... which is the question posed by the OP in the first place.... "What would the GM's do".... and why I'm suggesting that a great majority of voters are missing the point...
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Last edited by LA_Lakers_Rule on Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Zhengi
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:26 pm    Post subject:

Well, at least there is some semblence of rational in the poll.
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