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ForrestHump
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 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:27 am Post subject: |
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I think this team could still win 50 games if this keeps up
Kobe being the PG maximizes our strengths.
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hype
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:35 am Post subject: |
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this february when you consider how the lakers are playing, there schedule and then the teams that are ahead of thems schedule, they should absolutely at worst be the 8th seed and very possibly even 7th seed by the end of the month if everything goes right...
this is def the month to take advantage for the lakers.. it just feels good to watch games and thoroughly enjoy them again  |
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kobemania3-16
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:39 am Post subject: |
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| 32 wrote: | Chris Palmer @ESPNChrisPalmer
| Quote: | | Hope for the Lakers: 16 teams in last 25 years have made the playoffs after winning 17 or fewer games in first 42. |
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sure, it happen in the east all the time.
but in the west? just 4 team out of 107 times. |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| wolfpaclaker wrote: | Good thread, p.k.
I think it takes 44 wins, 45 to be sure.
Number I'm looking at is 24-13 at minimum. Including these recent 3 wins, that's 27-13 to close season.
And we really need Houston and utah to play no better than they have so far. Then 44-45 wins should be enough. Going to need help from them as well. |
Yeah, I'd agree..
Looking at how HOU/PORT been playing so far and their current record, I'd guess that Portland continues right at or slightly above .500, which is kind of where they've been this whole season. So they'll probably finish somewhere around 41-41, 42-40, or 43-39 for the (currently) #9 seed.
Houston seems to be holding their own a couple of wins above that - off the cuff, that projects to a range of 42-40 thru 44-38.
So, I'd say you are right and your estimate is in the probable range it'd take for LAL to move past both of them for the 8th.
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Mongo
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| P.K. wrote: | | wolfpaclaker wrote: | Good thread, p.k.
I think it takes 44 wins, 45 to be sure.
Number I'm looking at is 24-13 at minimum. Including these recent 3 wins, that's 27-13 to close season.
And we really need Houston and utah to play no better than they have so far. Then 44-45 wins should be enough. Going to need help from them as well. |
Yeah, I'd agree..
Looking at how HOU/PORT been playing so far and their current record, I'd guess that Portland continues right at or slightly above .500, which is kind of where they've been this whole season. So they'll probably finish somewhere around 41-41, 42-40, or 43-39 for the (currently) #9 seed.
Houston seems to be holding their own a couple of wins above that - off the cuff, that projects to a range of 42-40 thru 44-38.
So, I'd say you are right and your estimate is in the probable range it'd take for LAL to move past both of them for the 8th. |
Yep, if Utah and Houston keep winning at the same pace they will be at 44 wins which make 45 the magic number. If so, Lakers have to go 25-12 (.676) the rest of the way. I don't think its unreasonable to expect them to win 2 out of every 3 if they keep playing like this. |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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| wolfpaclaker wrote: | Good thread, p.k.
I think it takes 44 wins, 45 to be sure.
Number I'm looking at is 24-13 at minimum. Including these recent 3 wins, that's 27-13 to close season.
And we really need Houston and utah to play no better than they have so far. Then 44-45 wins should be enough. Going to need help from them as well. |
LOL...well, the TV announcers for the LAL/PHX game agreed with you just now. They ran through their logic & basically said "Probably 45, maybe only 44"
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Farazz
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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| HAVE to win tonight...Houston lost so if we won we would only be 2 games behind in the loss column! |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Looking at the calculations Lakers would probably need to win at least 75% to 80% of their remaining games to even have a chance. Don't forget that since 2006-2007, for 2 seasons, an 8th seed had to win 50 games. |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Looking at the calculations Lakers would probably need to win at least 75% to 80% of their remaining games to even have a chance. Don't forget that since 2006-2007, for 2 seasons, an 8th seed had to win 50 games. |
that is true, but keep in mind we're chasing Portland & Houston for the 8th
neither team is on track to win 47 games, and neither team really has the talent to do a lot better then they are now.
more like WolfPac & I were discussing earlier - probably 43 or 44 wins for Houston that LAL would have to beat. So, 45 would probably do it
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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Farazz
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Utah has the tie breaker against us and if we beat houston in april wel tie the season series meaning we would have to have had a better conference record to get the tie breaker |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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Updated after a STOOOPID loss to the SUNS - who have a 15-30 record
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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wolfpaclaker
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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Tonight's loss was awful, but there are still there. Houston lost today as well.
Truth is as much as I want the lakers to make the playoffs, I think these other teams who have been there all year, deserve it more.
But we are still in striking distance. This will go down the wire to the last few games of the season. |
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chrisca91
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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| dagger, tonight's loss was. |
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Dreamshake
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Joined: 05 May 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:23 pm Post subject: |
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| P.K. wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | Looking at the calculations Lakers would probably need to win at least 75% to 80% of their remaining games to even have a chance. Don't forget that since 2006-2007, for 2 seasons, an 8th seed had to win 50 games. |
that is true, but keep in mind we're chasing Portland & Houston for the 8th
neither team is on track to win 47 games, and neither team really has the talent to do a lot better then they are now.
more like WolfPac & I were discussing earlier - probably 43 or 44 wins for Houston that LAL would have to beat. So, 45 would probably do it |
The Rockets don't have the talent to be much better but they are 1 of 3 teams under the cap and are in a great position to bring in some help if they chose. I wouldn't be surprised to see our roster change at the deadline, whether it be a small move to use some of the capspace to get picks (take on salary) or a bigger one to give a upcoming free agent like Milsap or Josh Smith a trial run. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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Lakers keep shooting themselves in the foot with these losses to bad teams.
They gained no ground with their 3 game winning streak because Houston won during that period as well, and can't pounce when Houston loses tonight. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Dreamshake wrote: | | P.K. wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | Looking at the calculations Lakers would probably need to win at least 75% to 80% of their remaining games to even have a chance. Don't forget that since 2006-2007, for 2 seasons, an 8th seed had to win 50 games. |
that is true, but keep in mind we're chasing Portland & Houston for the 8th
neither team is on track to win 47 games, and neither team really has the talent to do a lot better then they are now.
more like WolfPac & I were discussing earlier - probably 43 or 44 wins for Houston that LAL would have to beat. So, 45 would probably do it |
The Rockets don't have the talent to be much better but they are 1 of 3 teams under the cap and are in a great position to bring in some help if they chose. I wouldn't be surprised to see our roster change at the deadline, whether it be a small move to use some of the capspace to get picks (take on salary) or a bigger one to give a upcoming free agent like Milsap or Josh Smith a trial run. |
Don't forget Houston has zero expectations this year, so they are probably playing much looser than the Lakers. The Lakers are in bad shape now, and need to start winning games at a 75% rate or they won't be able to catch up. |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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Updated after win against MIN T-Wolves
_________________
LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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daytripper
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| Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:36 am Post subject: |
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Per the basketball reference playoff probabilities report, the Utah Jazz will likely be the team the Lakers will need to catch for that 8th spot. They currently project at 43 wins while the Lakers on their current season pace project to 40 wins. Unfortunately the Jazz do hold the tiebreaker. We need them to lose at least 3 games they are expected to win. Hopefully one of their bigs will be dealt by the trade deadline which could effect their final record.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| daytripper wrote: | Per the basketball reference playoff probabilities report, the Utah Jazz will likely be the team the Lakers will need to catch for that 8th spot. They currently project at 43 wins while the Lakers on their current season pace project to 40 wins. Unfortunately the Jazz do hold the tiebreaker. We need them to lose at least 3 games they are expected to win. Hopefully one of their bigs will be dealt by the trade deadline which could effect their final record.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi |
That's interesting. They run 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season for all teams - and project that Houston will finish 7th @ 45.2W-36.8L (averaged) and pass Utah
I wouldn't expect Houston to pass Utah, considering how consistent both teams have been so far, but we'll see.
It still seems to track that LAL will need 44-45 wins to take that 8th seed, whether that's Hou or Utah. This is the range that several of us have been guesstimating.
I'll add a link to that 1000 game simulation results to the 1st post for reference
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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P.K.
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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Updated for Pistons game on 2/3/2013
_________________
LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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32
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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That loss at Phoenix really stings now. Instead of 2 games under .500 we are now 4 games under .500. That was a terrible loss and it might end up haunting us.
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LakerBlue
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:05 pm Post subject: |
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I'm less worried about a "Magic Number"; I just need the Lakers to win enough games to actually get in the playoff seedings. If Lakers win can 4 of 5 while Houston/Utah/Blazers loses like 5 of 6, we will be good.
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P.K.
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerBlue wrote: | | I'm less worried about a "Magic Number"; I just need the Lakers to win enough games to actually get in the playoff seedings. If Lakers win can 4 of 5 while Houston/Utah/Blazers loses like 5 of 6, we will be good. |
LOL...that is what the Magic # means
How many wins to make the 8th seed of the playoffs under different scenarios
Someone else chose the title - but he quit updating it following a string of losses, so I took over
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LBJ + AD = More rings
Never argue with a fool - listeners can't tell you apart
Wilt's unstoppable fadeaway: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O9MgNfcGJA
NPZ's Magic Johnson mix: www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8Qbo0WqvOI |
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wolfpaclaker
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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As of late we are beating teams we are better than in the standings, losing to teams we are worse than. The exceptions are OKC at Staples (W) and PHX on the road.
If you judge the Lakers remaining schedule by those terms:
They've got the following games that could be losses. All road games, against playoff teams or teams with very good home records. Now I don't know if we lose them all, or what happens, but those are tough games where you would guess odds are against us.
@ BRK
@ BOS
@ MIA
@ DEN
@ OKC
@ ATL
@ IND
@ MIL
@ LAC
@ POR
10 games. Say 8 more losses, 2 games where we surprise and win.
Then tougher home games in the schedule
LAC
BOS
CHI
MEM
SAS
HOU
Should win more than lose here, lets say 2 more losses.
IMO, 10 losses is about how much we should expect here on out, if this team keeps playing as well as they have in the last stretch. If that maintains, it allows the Lakers to finish with 45-46 wins.
Now the * is the Lakers having nights like we saw in Phx, where they just collapse on a 2nd night of B2B in the 4th. Then again it's happened quite a bit in all our recent games.
My gut is saying the Lakers have a few of those, lose about 10 of the 16 really tough games I listed above, maybe 2 more PHX type losses, and wind up wit 43-44 wins. Assuming the team is focused now for good, 43-44 wins is about what I think they end up with.
The key will be to how they react to losing. They've come out fine after losing to Phx. They gotta keep that up. In previous stretches of the season, after a loss, we've seen more bad play next game. |
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tw-lakbfan
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| Posted: Sun Feb 03, 2013 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Damn, we even struggled to beat the supposed weak teams, losing big lead and not able to get stops. Against any decent teams, I'm afraid they will all be losable games. |
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