Deeper look into our remaining schedule and what will it take to make the playoffs
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Greatness
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:38 am    Post subject: Deeper look into our remaining schedule and what will it take to make the playoffs

I know it's early to talk about playoffs but that stat ESPN put up (forgot exactly but something like 241 teams started the same record as we did) projected that the Lakers had a 12% chance of making the playoffs. So it got me thinking, what will it exactly take to get at least the 8th seed.

The projected win totals for the last 3 seeds for the Western Conference are(took this by using their current win percentages):

Denver: 49-33
Utah: 47-35
Houston: 45-37

So we probably would have to get somewhere around 24-28 wins out of the remaining 38 to get to the 8th seed, somewhere around 26-30 wins to get to the 7th seed and somewhere around 28-32 wins to get that 6th seed (I know it's a stretch)

Our remaining schedule consists of:
-17 games at Home
-21 games on the Road
-22 games with teams currently at or under .500. (3 NO, 3 PHX, 3 MIN, 2 SAC, 2 DAL, 2 POR, 2 BOS, 1 DET, 1 CHA, 1 WAS, 1 TOR, 1 ORL)
-5 games against teams that are currently the bottom 3 teams in playoff picture of each conference (2 ATL, 1 MIL, 1 DEN, 1 HOU) *sans Boston
-11 games against Top 5 teams of each conference (1 BKN, 1 MIA, 1 CHI, 1 IND, 2 LAC, 2 GS, 1 MEM, 1 SA, 1 OKC)
-6 B2B's left as well.

So I believe we very much have a great shot at making the playoffs. Just need to rack up as much wins as possible and play some decent basketball.

Reminder that these are just projections, you never really know with these things. Anything can happen along the way ie., slumps, injuries, trades, etc.

Mods- feel free to merge if there is a better place for this.


Hope this helps.


Last edited by Greatness on Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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Air Apparent
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:44 am    Post subject:

Finishing .500 on the road is something this team should be able to do and quite frankly its not asking much. Thats 10-11 wins from the remaining road games.

Protect home court. Anything less than 16-1 or 15-2 is unacceptable.

That leaves us with 25-26 wins, good enough to squeak into the playoffs.
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Greatness
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:49 am    Post subject:

Air Apparent wrote:
Finishing .500 on the road is something this team should be able to do and quite frankly its not asking much. Thats 10-11 wins from the remaining road games.

Protect home court. Anything less than 16-1 or 15-2 is unacceptable.

That leaves us with 25-26 wins, good enough to squeak into the playoffs.

Exactly and that's looking at just Home vs. Road. I consider the games against sub .500 teams gimmes and we shouldn't lose many of those if we just take care of business.
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ForrestHump
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:51 am    Post subject:

We're moving in the right direction

17 home games, need to win at least 13 of them

21 road games, anything less than .500 is unacceptable on our remaining road games.

Basically, win every home game and put together a respectable road trip and we're in the playoff picture.

46+ wins = playoffs.

One problem for us will be Dallas, they are right on our ass, we need to beat them in both games, those wins will be crucial.

And the last game vs Houston could be the game where we lose = miss PO and win = go to PO.
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E=MC²
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:02 am    Post subject:

It comes down to their play on the road. This team cannot lose any more games at home either. The teams ahead of them almost all own a tie breaker vs L.A. right now meaning they will have to pass them to get in and that means beating every bubble team ahead of them from here on out. Looking at that record for the season disgusts me.
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silkwilkes
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:03 am    Post subject:

Let's see how we play on this road trip. Although there's hope finally, it's hard to really project anything until we have a better sample size than 2 games. 9 game should do though.
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Greatness
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:22 am    Post subject:

This road trip is crucial but luckily we face some sub .500 teams. We just need to gain some momentum.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:36 am    Post subject:

One loss takes us 2 steps back, we need to win 2 games for every loss, totally doable and after beating OKC we're right on track but it's better to come out strong with 5+ straight wins, that way we can afford to drop a game or two when we reach the end of our road trip.
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av3773
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:44 am    Post subject:

This is the kind of team where if they are confident, continue to play as they have in the last 2 games, and build upon that can easily rip off 10 game win streaks….credit to all the players just shutting up and manning up….huge props to Kobe, figuring out a way to put this team on his back different from his usual scoring barrage….Kobe = STUD, his play has really helped all the other players elevate, Nash gets a little more confidence in his shot, D 12 can avoid some of the tick tack fouls we have a very high ceiling…Pau playing like Pau has been great, guess MDA should just ask Kobe for coaching advice he seems to know how to maximize the players
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moonriver24
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:03 am    Post subject:

While the journey is still full of obstacles, I think the half-glass full view says that we have passed our worst test of the season. I believe, as Kobe said, we have found our identity and the team spirit has been pretty great with 2 consecutive wins, esp. on OKC. To say it another way, we have gone to the bottom and the only way to go is up.

Remember also that other teams will have their turns of slumping. The slumpings will help Lakers catch the nearest spot to the playoffs.

Right now, it does not matter who we face in the first round by which I believe this team will be hard to beat 4 out of 7 games.

Go Lakers!
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markjay
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:13 am    Post subject:

I think the Lakers are going on a tear now. I expect them to make a run at 7h or even 6th place.
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Killer_Z
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:47 am    Post subject:

It will be a huge climb to get there, but this team can do it. One game at a time .....
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LandsbergerRules
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:52 am    Post subject:

It's a tall order, but since we're probably the best team in league history to have a 19-25 record at around the halfway point, we'll be able to beat the odds.
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ForrestHump
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:25 am    Post subject:

LandsbergerRules wrote:
It's a tall order, but since we're probably the best team in league history to have a 19-25 record at around the halfway point, we'll be able to beat the odds.


Well, the 02-03 team went 11 - 4 in their last 15 games to close the season out strong (8 - 2 last 10).
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:33 am    Post subject:

We beat OKC fair and square. Every game from here on is winnable.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:57 am    Post subject:

i wanna see 33-5 records from now on. thats the only way teams will fear us come playoffs.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:58 am    Post subject:

Go 7-3 in each of the remaining 10 game blocks.

We are currently 2-0 in this one.

We do that, we get the 7 seed.
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novadolla
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:31 am    Post subject:

D-Dogg wrote:
Go 7-3 in each of the remaining 10 game blocks.

We are currently 2-0 in this one.

We do that, we get the 7 seed.


i like this
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:36 am    Post subject:

It will probably take a 27-11 record. Doable, but it won't be easy.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:36 am    Post subject:

Hoping for a 9-0 run in the next 9 games before Miami. It's do-able. Have lots of weaker teams.
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Greatness
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:09 am    Post subject:

So let's say we end up with a 5-6 record vs. those 11 top tier teams (possibly our worst case scenario), 3-2 or 4-1 in games against lower seeded playoff teams, which would probably mean we'd have to end up somewhere around 18-4 against sub .500 teams. Ultimately it will end up in those games on whether or not we can take care of business. April's a very tough stretch for us, playing 4 out of our 8 games against Clips, Spurs, Memphis, GSW. We can also put Dallas as one of the teams that might give us trouble.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:09 am    Post subject:

If I had a older roster I would want to see okc in the first round while my team is still fresh. So maybe the bad start is a blessing I'm disguise.

We got Blake back now we just need to get Howard back and were in great shape
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Greatness
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:12 am    Post subject:

malicious_intent wrote:
If I had a older roster I would want to see okc in the first round while my team is still fresh. So maybe the bad start is a blessing I'm disguise.

We got Blake back now we just need to get Howard back and were in great shape

Good point, but OKC is a scary team. Won't have Westbrook shooting like he did yesterday every game. I would prefer to play the Spurs, but I get your point on playing them early rather than later in the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:36 am    Post subject:

novadolla wrote:
D-Dogg wrote:
Go 7-3 in each of the remaining 10 game blocks.

We are currently 2-0 in this one.

We do that, we get the 7 seed.


i like this


+ 1
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:56 am    Post subject:

Great Work "Greatness"
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