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west
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 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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The next 5 games are all winnable. Lakers need to get all five.
But the 3 starting in Boston and ending in Miami is troublesome. At least no Rondo!
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vicman
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:12 pm Post subject: |
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| They need to go 6-2 in the next 8 starting with a home win Tuesday |
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jodeke
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Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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LINK
We're 19-25, 5 games from 8th seed with 38 games to play. In order to make the playoffs we have to go on a winning streak and teams ahead of us have to come back.
We've dug a hole that's going to prove very difficult to extract ourselves from.
If we make the playoffs and continue to play the way we have in the past two, all bets are off.
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venturalakersfan
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| vicman wrote: | | They need to go 6-2 in the next 8 starting with a home win Tuesday |
That is definitely possible. I would guess 6-2 or 5-3.
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Snipes
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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Houston should lose today in Utah, and we SHOULD beat the Pelicans.
That will really help. |
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kobemania3-16
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Joined: 31 Mar 2009
Posts: 2206
Location: Right down there
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | LINK
We're 19-25, 5 games from 8th seed with 38 games to play. In order to make the playoffs we have to go on a winning streak and teams ahead of us have to come back.
We've dug a hole that's going to prove very difficult to extract ourselves from.
If we make the playoffs and continue to play the way we have in the past two, all bets are off. |
we are 4 games from the 8th seed and only 3 more on the loss column.
if houston beat utah tonight we are 4 games from the 7th seed too.
if utah win we are 3 games from 8th. |
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postandpivot
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Joined: 16 Sep 2003
Posts: 36822
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Deeper look into our remaining schedule and what will it take to make the playoffs |
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| Greatness wrote: | I know it's early to talk about playoffs but that stat ESPN put up (forgot exactly but something like 241 teams started the same record as we did) projected that the Lakers had a 12% chance of making the playoffs. So it got me thinking, what will it exactly take to get at least the 8th seed.
The projected win totals for the last 3 seeds for the Western Conference are(took this by using their current win percentages):
Denver: 49-33
Utah: 47-35
Houston: 45-37
So we probably would have to get somewhere around 24-28 wins out of the remaining 38 to get to the 8th seed, somewhere around 26-30 wins to get to the 7th seed and somewhere around 28-32 wins to get that 6th seed (I know it's a stretch)
Our remaining schedule consists of:
-17 games at Home
-21 games on the Road
-22 games with teams currently at or under .500. (3 NO, 3 PHX, 3 MIN, 2 SAC, 2 DAL, 2 POR, 2 BOS, 1 DET, 1 CHA, 1 WAS, 1 TOR, 1 ORL)
-5 games against teams that are currently the bottom 3 teams in playoff picture of each conference (2 ATL, 1 MIL, 1 DEN, 1 HOU) *sans Boston
-11 games against Top 5 teams of each conference (1 BKN, 1 MIA, 1 CHI, 1 IND, 2 LAC, 2 GS, 1 MEM, 1 SA, 1 OKC)
-6 B2B's left as well.
So I believe we very much have a great shot at making the playoffs. Just need to rack up as much wins as possible and play some decent basketball.
Reminder that these are just projections, you never really know with these things. Anything can happen along the way ie., slumps, injuries, trades, etc.
Mods- feel free to merge if there is a better place for this.
Hope this helps. |
good analysis. i'll keep it simple.
the beauty of this team looking so bad early and being in such a deep hole. is that to climb out of this hole and get into the offs. we have to win so many games in a row. to the point where Everyone will know we are a contender.
it will take a championship effort, execution, and talent to pull this off. if we pull it off. best believe. we are championship contenders. do not look at the seeding. its like if we gave the entire league a head start.
see sometimes if you run off a bunch of games during the season it could be fools gold. ask LEBRON about that in a cavs jersey. ask nash about that in a suns jersey. they know.
you can win all those games then flame out based on a tough matchup.
but if you put together a historic run to just get in. you are peaking at the right time. and you are doing it at the toughest part of the year. this is the part where you've seen most teams 2nd half adjustments and tweaks. if anyone was traded to make a team stronger or weaker. thats the team you have to beat in order to get to the offs. its not about the teams you beat or lost to in december, who are now different teams due to trades and injuries.
the 2nd half of the season is when everyone plays a lot more serious. atleast the good teams. because everyone is making a push, push for the offs, push for seeding. push for homecourt, coaches on bad teams pushing their teams to go out the right way so they can start next season on a high and so the coach himself wont get fired in the offseason.
you go streaking in the 2nd half of the nba season to make it into the offs. with dwight, gasol, kobe, mwp, nash, jamison, meeks, and now clark. you are a contender.
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Greatness
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Joined: 10 Jul 2012
Posts: 613
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: Deeper look into our remaining schedule and what will it take to make the playoffs |
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| postandpivot wrote: | | Greatness wrote: | I know it's early to talk about playoffs but that stat ESPN put up (forgot exactly but something like 241 teams started the same record as we did) projected that the Lakers had a 12% chance of making the playoffs. So it got me thinking, what will it exactly take to get at least the 8th seed.
The projected win totals for the last 3 seeds for the Western Conference are(took this by using their current win percentages):
Denver: 49-33
Utah: 47-35
Houston: 45-37
So we probably would have to get somewhere around 24-28 wins out of the remaining 38 to get to the 8th seed, somewhere around 26-30 wins to get to the 7th seed and somewhere around 28-32 wins to get that 6th seed (I know it's a stretch)
Our remaining schedule consists of:
-17 games at Home
-21 games on the Road
-22 games with teams currently at or under .500. (3 NO, 3 PHX, 3 MIN, 2 SAC, 2 DAL, 2 POR, 2 BOS, 1 DET, 1 CHA, 1 WAS, 1 TOR, 1 ORL)
-5 games against teams that are currently the bottom 3 teams in playoff picture of each conference (2 ATL, 1 MIL, 1 DEN, 1 HOU) *sans Boston
-11 games against Top 5 teams of each conference (1 BKN, 1 MIA, 1 CHI, 1 IND, 2 LAC, 2 GS, 1 MEM, 1 SA, 1 OKC)
-6 B2B's left as well.
So I believe we very much have a great shot at making the playoffs. Just need to rack up as much wins as possible and play some decent basketball.
Reminder that these are just projections, you never really know with these things. Anything can happen along the way ie., slumps, injuries, trades, etc.
Mods- feel free to merge if there is a better place for this.
Hope this helps. |
good analysis. i'll keep it simple.
the beauty of this team looking so bad early and being in such a deep hole. is that to climb out of this hole and get into the offs. we have to win so many games in a row. to the point where Everyone will know we are a contender.
it will take a championship effort, execution, and talent to pull this off. if we pull it off. best believe. we are championship contenders. do not look at the seeding. its like if we gave the entire league a head start.
see sometimes if you run off a bunch of games during the season it could be fools gold. ask LEBRON about that in a cavs jersey. ask nash about that in a suns jersey. they know.
you can win all those games then flame out based on a tough matchup.
but if you put together a historic run to just get in. you are peaking at the right time. and you are doing it at the toughest part of the year. this is the part where you've seen most teams 2nd half adjustments and tweaks. if anyone was traded to make a team stronger or weaker. thats the team you have to beat in order to get to the offs. its not about the teams you beat or lost to in december, who are now different teams due to trades and injuries.
the 2nd half of the season is when everyone plays a lot more serious. atleast the good teams. because everyone is making a push, push for the offs, push for seeding. push for homecourt, coaches on bad teams pushing their teams to go out the right way so they can start next season on a high and so the coach himself wont get fired in the offseason.
you go streaking in the 2nd half of the nba season to make it into the offs. with dwight, gasol, kobe, mwp, nash, jamison, meeks, and now clark. you are a contender. |
Exactly, that's why I believe we can make some real noise even as an 8th or 7th seed. Now we're going to have go on a winning streak for that to come, but it's no secret that this team has potential. Everyone is shocked that we're doing so bad right. It's not like the 05-06 team where we made it to the 7th seed and we hoped that they would come together and win. This team is going to be different than a bunch of 8th seeds in the past. I feel we can get it together because we have a bunch of proven guys that know exactly what it takes. Nash has been deep into the playoffs a few times. Kobe has 5 rings which speaks for themselves. Pau has a couple championship runs under his belt. Dwight has taken a team to the finals. Metta has got there. Jamison has been in the league long enough to know what it takes. We have a group of guys, though old, that know what the mindset needs to be in that locker room. Look at Houston, a bunch of young players. Utah's up and coming with no real playoff experience. It's going to be tough to make it but I think we can. And who knows what happens in the playoffs. Statistics aside, if this team believes that they can win it, they have every bit of chance as any of the other teams. We won't have homecourt, but it's not like it's impossible to win a series without it. |
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doughboy90650
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Joined: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 15294
Location: Southern California
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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also gonna need help from those in front of us. Only reason we're still in the hunt is because Portland and Houston have been playing like chicken (bleep). It's a damn shame when both teams go 3-7 in their last ten and we only make up one game (4-6)  . |
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Greatness
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Posts: 613
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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Did a little more research on both Houston's and Utah's schedules:
Houston:
-18 Home
-18 Road
-17 against teams currently at or under .500 (4 PHX, 3 SAC, 2 POR, 2 DAL, 2 ORL, 1 MIN, 1 CLE, 1 WAS, 1 CHA)
-5 against teams in the bottom 3 seeds of each conference (2 UTA, 2 DEN, 1 MIL)
-13 against Top 5 teams of each conference (4 GSW, 2 LAC, 2 MEM, 1 OKC, 1 SAS, 1 MIA, 1 BKN, 1 IND)
-5 B2B's
-1 against us/ 2 against UTA
They've got a relatively harder schedule than us but they have an easy April (Only play Memphis, Us (hopefully) and Den that are over .500 out of their 9 games)
Utah:
-22 Home
-16 Road
-18 games with teams at or under .500 (4 POR, 3 MIN, 2 NO, 2 SAC, 1 PHX, 1 DAL, 1 PHI, 1 DET, 1 CLE, 1 CHA, 1 BOS)
-6 against teams in the bottom 3 seeds of each conference (2 HOU, 2 MIL, 1 ATL, 1 DEN)
-14 games agains Top 5 teams against each conference (3 OKC, 2 GSW, 2 MEM, 2 CHI, 2 NYK, 1 LAC, 1 SAS, 1 BKN)
-B2B's
-0 games against us/2 games against HOU
A lot more home games for them in this final stretch but a lot more tougher teams. April is pretty tough for them as well, 4 out of the last 8 games against playoff teams (just like us). |
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LakerBlue
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Joined: 16 Jul 2012
Posts: 3433
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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^^^
Also there's a chance Utah makes a trade that takes them out of playoff picture.
| venturalakersfan wrote: | | It will probably take a 27-11 record. Doable, but it won't be easy. |
So win all of our home games (17) and win at least half of our road games (21) so that would give us 48 wins.
Sounds doable.
What would be really nice is if Lakers can win 19 of 20 like they (albeit a different team) did either last year or a few seasons ago.
Of course, 2 or 3 of the Houston/Utah/Portland/Minn group can do us a favor by having a 40% or worse winning percentage the next month 
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