The Rockets have one of the best records in franchise history after the Howard addition. Yes, he is clearly worth a max salary. Any team with cap space and a need at C would give it to him.
The Rockets have one of the best records in franchise history after the Howard addition. Yes, he is clearly worth a max salary. Any team with cap space and a need at C would give it to him.
I think this sums it up quite nicely.
I went back and looked. The Rockets are on pace to win 57 games with Howard. We have only won at least 55 games 4 times in franchise history.
He has taken a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs into a top 3-4 west team within striking distance of 1st and even a possible contender.
I wouldn't quite phrase it that way. He, along with Chandler Parsons, who is growing into his position, and Terrence Jones, who is growing into his position and Patrick Beverly, who is growing into his position, along with so many role players, not to mention the number one player on the team, James Harden, has taken a team . . .
Indeed, he has helped this team get to this level. The question will remain, will he get them to the next.
All of those players were on the team last year. The only one that has had tremendous growth has been Jones, and his growth isn't enough to elevate us from a 8 seed to a 3/4 seed. Howard, by the way, has helped tremendously with Jones growth. Here are some of his comments about him and Howard, and he actually has a Davis comparison in there as well:
The Rockets have one of the best records in franchise history after the Howard addition. Yes, he is clearly worth a max salary. Any team with cap space and a need at C would give it to him.
that is actually a good argument in favor of Howard... however, you have to ask yourself... last year, the Rockets didn't have a player like Howard... what if they got, Noah, or Hibbert, instead? do you think they'd also be in the same position right now? or even better? _________________ "Now, if life is coffee, then the jobs, money & position in society are the cups. They are just tools to hold & contain life, but the quality of life doesn't change. Sometimes, by concentrating only on the cup, we fail to enjoy the coffee in it."
Joined: 07 Oct 2003 Posts: 5004 Location: Deep Europe
Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:45 am Post subject:
Regular season means nothing.
The Spurs have the best record with their best players coasting all year : nobody of them has played like a top player, not Parker, not Leonard, not even Duncan: they only played reasonably well here and there.
We will see what Howard is worth when the games mean something .
He has taken a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs into a top 3-4 west team within striking distance of 1st and even a possible contender.
I wouldn't quite phrase it that way. He, along with Chandler Parsons, who is growing into his position, and Terrence Jones, who is growing into his position and Patrick Beverly, who is growing into his position, along with so many role players, not to mention the number one player on the team, James Harden, has taken a team . . .
Indeed, he has helped this team get to this level. The question will remain, will he get them to the next.
All of those players were on the team last year. The only one that has had tremendous growth has been Jones, and his growth isn't enough to elevate us from a 8 seed to a 3/4 seed. Howard, by the way, has helped tremendously with Jones growth. Here are some of his comments about him and Howard, and he actually has a Davis comparison in there as well:
The Rockets have one of the best records in franchise history after the Howard addition. Yes, he is clearly worth a max salary. Any team with cap space and a need at C would give it to him.
I won't comment on how Howard has helped with Jones' growth, as I don't follow the Rockets that closely, but generally, I do not believe another player at a different position is nearly as important as a young player learning the system, the league and his opponents, especially during his first full year, as is the case for Jones. And knowing Howard from last year . . . I can't see him to be that great basketball mind, mentoring the nuances of game--now when you stand at the line, you want to step back and shoot the ball with no arc . . . Besides, why, if he is such a great mentor, has Asik not progressed, and actually slightly regressed, and why can't they play on the same unit together. Sound familiar?
But let's look at the numbers.
Parsons is in his second full season. Few players peak in their first. He is improving his game (albeit slightly) as his WS/48 of .131, up from .121, demonstrates.
Beverly is also in his first full season and is now a starter. His minutes per game nearly doubled so that while his WS/48 is down, from .148 to .119, his WS has nearly doubled from 2.2 to 4.1.
Then we return to Jones. His WS/48 is .170, a smidgeon higher than Howard's .169. When also considering that his ORtg/DRtg is 119/104 compared to Howard's 109/100, one could make the argument that he, alone, is nearly as valuable to the team as Howard.
Then there is the addition of Casspi, a solid role player, and Lin getting even more familiar with the scheme in his second season.
As I've said, indeed Howard is very valuable to the team, but is the growth of this team--an aspect of why I believe Howard made his choice--as much Howard's addition, or the timing of joining a very young team beginning to blossom? I think it is as much, likely more, the latter than the former. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
Yeah, but mainly because the Lakers aren't going to be a championship caliber team any time soon, and he would have kept LA from getting the type of draft pick they now have. Worst place to be is in that 35-45 window with no assets to improve and that's where LA would have been Dwight at the max and Kobe with his current extension (now whether they give him that with DH on board, who knows).
But in general if say Kobe were in his prime, I can't see any reason why LA wouldn't be a contender with a prime Kobe and Dwight at this MAX salary. I mean you put prime Kobe on that HOU team, I pick them to win the West this year.
All I know is that he is the best center in the league. Or at the very least a top 3. That worth a lot.
Noah is the best.
dwight isn't the clear but best anymore
Noah is there
Hibbert is there
Marc Gasol
Dwight
they're all good in their own ways. and stats dont tell the whole story either
Dwight is clearly the best C in an era of weak centers. Noah doesn't have his offensive impact. Hibbert doesn't either. Gasol is closer than those two in 2-way impact but still trails Howard. Howard is the only one that is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Yes, he is clearly still worth a max salary since he is the only C in basketball that can make that claim, unless you consider Duncan and Anthony Davis centers.
I think any team would happily pay a C max money if he gave them 19, 12, 2 on 59% and helped them move from an 8 seed to possibly 3 or 4.
And ultimately, that's what you'll get with Howard. Perpetual 3-4 seeds with no championships.
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
Now - I can't say the same. Too many games, he doesn't show up. While Houston is having a great season, and he's a great fit for a team. Do you really think you're going to be winning a championship as he continues to decline?
His athleticism is fleeting day by day. _________________ Author of James Harden and the Strip Club
"The key to good decision making is not knowledge. It is understanding. We are swimming in the former. We are desperately lacking in the latter." - Malcom Gladwell
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
I actually thought he was the best player, neck and neck with LeBron in the 2010-11 season, you know, the year the voters bumped their heads and chose Rose. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
I actually thought he was the best player, neck and neck with LeBron in the 2010-11 season, you know, the year the voters bumped their heads and chose Rose.
You could make that case, but me personally I would have still traded him for KD or Lebron. _________________ Author of James Harden and the Strip Club
"The key to good decision making is not knowledge. It is understanding. We are swimming in the former. We are desperately lacking in the latter." - Malcom Gladwell
All I know is that he is the best center in the league. Or at the very least a top 3. That worth a lot.
Noah is the best.
dwight isn't the clear but best anymore
Noah is there
Hibbert is there
Marc Gasol
Dwight
they're all good in their own ways. and stats dont tell the whole story either
Dwight is clearly the best C in an era of weak centers. Noah doesn't have his offensive impact. Hibbert doesn't either. Gasol is closer than those two in 2-way impact but still trails Howard. Howard is the only one that is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Yes, he is clearly still worth a max salary since he is the only C in basketball that can make that claim, unless you consider Duncan and Anthony Davis centers.
I think any team would happily pay a C max money if he gave them 19, 12, 2 on 59% and helped them move from an 8 seed to possibly 3 or 4.
And ultimately, that's what you'll get with Howard. Perpetual 3-4 seeds with no championships.
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
Now - I can't say the same. Too many games, he doesn't show up. While Houston is having a great season, and he's a great fit for a team. Do you really think you're going to be winning a championship as he continues to decline?
His athleticism is fleeting day by day.
That's still a max player. There are plenty of supposed young "superstars" that have career records barely above an mediocre batting average. In fact, we might get one in a year and I'm okay with that.
All I know is that he is the best center in the league. Or at the very least a top 3. That worth a lot.
Noah is the best.
dwight isn't the clear but best anymore
Noah is there
Hibbert is there
Marc Gasol
Dwight
they're all good in their own ways. and stats dont tell the whole story either
Dwight is clearly the best C in an era of weak centers. Noah doesn't have his offensive impact. Hibbert doesn't either. Gasol is closer than those two in 2-way impact but still trails Howard. Howard is the only one that is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Yes, he is clearly still worth a max salary since he is the only C in basketball that can make that claim, unless you consider Duncan and Anthony Davis centers.
I think any team would happily pay a C max money if he gave them 19, 12, 2 on 59% and helped them move from an 8 seed to possibly 3 or 4.
And ultimately, that's what you'll get with Howard. Perpetual 3-4 seeds with no championships.
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
Now - I can't say the same. Too many games, he doesn't show up. While Houston is having a great season, and he's a great fit for a team. Do you really think you're going to be winning a championship as he continues to decline?
His athleticism is fleeting day by day.
That's still a max player. There are plenty of supposed young "superstars" that have career records barely above an mediocre batting average. In fact, we might get one in a year and I'm okay with that.
The system is screwed up because the same contract will be afforded to Dwight, Lebron, KD, and to Love, Harden, Carmelo given their length of time in the league.
If we define a max player as any top 10 player yes, he deserves a max contract. But, if we're determining the ROI on these contracts only a few players are really worthy of their max contract.
I think there are two people who justify and exceed their max contract - Lebron and KD.
After that the return on a player like Howard relative to others isn't as great. I'd rather have Steph Curry on his contract (not a max) than Harden on his max. Similar to Howard, I would rather have Noah on his contract, than Howard.
On the tier system of max contracts, Dwight, Melo, Harden cannot be on the same tier as Lebron and KD. Yet they are afforded the same. However, their talent disparity is clear. _________________ Author of James Harden and the Strip Club
"The key to good decision making is not knowledge. It is understanding. We are swimming in the former. We are desperately lacking in the latter." - Malcom Gladwell
that is actually a good argument in favor of Howard... however, you have to ask yourself... last year, the Rockets didn't have a player like Howard... what if they got, Noah, or Hibbert, instead? do you think they'd also be in the same position right now? or even better?
No, because neither one of those players impacts the game offensively like Howard does. I know Howard's offensive game takes a beating around here because his post game sucks, but he is still a capable 20 ppg scorer and his presence on the court makes it easier for those around him.
He does? This team, with a disadvantage at PF and PG (the latter really matters in the West), no bench and no real perimeter defender? With Kevin McHale coaching?
This team doesn't have more talent than the Thunder, Spurs or Clippers IMO. I think Morey can build a title worthy supporting cast around Harden/Howard eventually, but that ain't this years team.
I won't comment on how Howard has helped with Jones' growth, as I don't follow the Rockets that closely, but generally, I do not believe another player at a different position is nearly as important as a young player learning the system, the league and his opponents, especially during his first full year, as is the case for Jones. And knowing Howard from last year . . . I can't see him to be that great basketball mind, mentoring the nuances of game--now when you stand at the line, you want to step back and shoot the ball with no arc . . . Besides, why, if he is such a great mentor, has Asik not progressed, and actually slightly regressed, and why can't they play on the same unit together. Sound familiar?
I could go into theory (as none of us are at the practices) on how Howard has been helping Jones, but why can't we simply take Jones at his word? I mentioned how Howard has helped him because Jones has been mentioning it all year. I don't see why he would lie about it.
ribeye wrote:
But let's look at the numbers.
Parsons is in his second full season. Few players peak in their first. He is improving his game (albeit slightly) as his WS/48 of .131, up from .121, demonstrates.
Isn't it easier to improve your game when there is a great finishing big that you constantly have to have a body on (Howard), as opposed to the one you could ignore offensively last year (Asik)? Getting more open shots doesn't help you improve your game from the prior season where your team had zero low post scoring? Your life as a defender isn't easier with Howard anchoring the pivot?
I also don't think Parsons has improved this season. We think his game has gotten worse in Houston, especially defensively. His individual stats really aren't any better, but I know those aren't the advanced metrics. Does Howard have no impact in WS/48 for other players?
ribeye wrote:
Beverly is also in his first full season and is now a starter. His minutes per game nearly doubled so that while his WS/48 is down, from .148 to .119, his WS has nearly doubled from 2.2 to 4.1.
Beverly hasn't really gotten better from last season. He gets more minutes not because he has improved, but because Lin is a defensive liability and we don't need PG scoring as much with the additions Howard brings offensively.
ribeye wrote:
Then we return to Jones. His WS/48 is .170, a smidgeon higher than Howard's .169. When also considering that his ORtg/DRtg is 119/104 compared to Howard's 109/100, one could make the argument that he, alone, is nearly as valuable to the team as Howard.
Do you honestly think anyone would make that argument? Is WS the same metric that says Robin Lopez and Jordan are more valuable than Howard?
ribeye wrote:
Then there is the addition of Casspi, a solid role player, and Lin getting even more familiar with the scheme in his second season.
Casspi has been garbage, which is why Jordan Hamilton took all of his minutes once we traded for him. We acquired him to replace Carlos Delfino, and his role was supposed to be a deadly 3 point shooter to iffset his horrendous defense. But his shot has been off, and he is prone to do dumb ish on the court. So he is now at the end of the bench. He has been hurting us. Lin is pretty much the same guy that he was last year.
ribeye wrote:
As I've said, indeed Howard is very valuable to the team, but is the growth of this team--an aspect of why I believe Howard made his choice--as much Howard's addition, or the timing of joining a very young team beginning to blossom? I think it is as much, likely more, the latter than the former.
The only player who has exhibited real growth this season is Jones. We can agree to disagree, but I believe you noted that you haven't been following the Rockets?
Last edited by Dreamshake on Sat Mar 29, 2014 12:50 pm; edited 2 times in total
Now - I can't say the same. Too many games, he doesn't show up. While Houston is having a great season, and he's a great fit for a team. Do you really think you're going to be winning a championship as he continues to decline?
Sure, if the GM puts a proper supporting cast around the Howard/Harden duo.
The only player who has exhibited real growth this season is Jones. We can agree to disagree, but I believe you noted that you haven't been following the Rockets?
You sound like a pretty square guy, and your points appear fairly well thought out. I suppose, if you follow the Rockets as closely as you say, and you are as objective as you appear (as far as fans go) that I will defer to your observations. Silly for a casual observer to get into it with a real fan.
But, with Harden, whom I must assume you agree is your best player, and it is not really that close, along with all the solid players as discussed herein, this team, if Howard is what you say he is, should go far.
Harden and Howard are hardly Kobe and Shaq, but this supportive cast is close to or better than any the 3peats had, and much better than the last two.
Also, if Kobe and Gasol could do it with their supporting cast, I don't see why Harden and Howard (who must be better than Gasol was by your account of Howard's impact) can't with theirs.
(But I do think DJordan, this season, is having as good or better a season than Howard, and that while Howard is better than RLopez, he is not better than BLopez for the last couple of seasons--at least when Brook is playing. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
Dwight is doing great in houston. cant ask for more.
If i'm a houston fan tho i'd want a more defensive coach. They dont have that miami heat gear that they can turn on whenever needed. Until they get that they'll be a good team but not elite.
Isn't it easier to improve your game when there is a great finishing big that you constantly have to have a body on (Howard), as opposed to the one you could ignore offensively last year (Asik)?
I just recalled some of my many discussions with Kobe fans herein. I can't tell you how many times I've been told that Shaq inhibited Kobe's development and his numbers by clogging up the middle. If it just wasn't for Shaq . . .
Now Shaq is far beyond what Howard will ever be, but I just don't think such a generalization, either way, is valid. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
The only player who has exhibited real growth this season is Jones. We can agree to disagree, but I believe you noted that you haven't been following the Rockets?
You sound like a pretty square guy, and your points appear fairly well thought out. I suppose, if you follow the Rockets as closely as you say, and you are as objective as you appear (as far as fans go) that I will defer to your observations. Silly for a casual observer to get into it with a real fan.
But, with Harden, whom I must assume you agree is your best player, and it is not really that close, along with all the solid players as discussed herein, this team, if Howard is what you say he is, should go far.
Harden and Howard are hardly Kobe and Shaq, but this supportive cast is close to or better than any the 3peats had, and much better than the last two.
Also, if Kobe and Gasol could do it with their supporting cast, I don't see why Harden and Howard (who must be better than Gasol was by your account of Howard's impact) can't with theirs.
(But I do think DJordan, this season, is having as good or better a season than Howard, and that while Howard is better than RLopez, he is not better than BLopez for the last couple of seasons--at least when Brook is playing.
I don't think our supporting cast is as good as you think it is. I mean, it's not garbage, but it's not as good as the supporting casts in OKC, SA or LAC. Harden/Harden are studs, but so are Durant/Westbrook, Duncan/Parker and CP3/Blake. And all of those teams have better benches than us IMO. Compare players 3-12 on all of those teams....we don't stack up. If things go right I can see us possibly getting to the WCF's, but I surely wouldn't pick us in a series vs OKC or SA.
I think going forward Morey can better allocate the $16M we are paying Asik/Lin and maybe use some exceptions or something to improve our bench.
Isn't it easier to improve your game when there is a great finishing big that you constantly have to have a body on (Howard), as opposed to the one you could ignore offensively last year (Asik)?
I just recalled some of my many discussions with Kobe fans herein. I can't tell you how many times I've been told that Shaq inhibited Kobe's development and his numbers by clogging up the middle. If it just wasn't for Shaq . . .
Now Shaq is far beyond what Howard will ever be, but I just don't think such a generalization, either way, is valid.
I'm not trying to generalize. I'm just noting the differences I see from this year compared to last year. To be fair, I'm comparing Howard to a C who was an offensive liability. But the lane being clogged when Harden drove and him having space to drive now is clear as day. The same goes for other players. Harden is also closing games much better this season because he doesn't have to carry the offensive burden all game long.
Here is an example. Look at the plays when Howard is in the game with Jones. Look at how much attention Howard is getting. Dudes aren't leaving him. Look at the open space Jones, who is long, athletic and can finish, has.
I don't think our supporting cast is as good as you think it is. I mean, it's not garbage, but it's not as good as the supporting casts in OKC, SA or LAC. Harden/Harden are studs, but so are Durant/Westbrook, Duncan/Parker and CP3/Blake. And all of those teams have better benches than us IMO. Compare players 3-12 on all of those teams....we don't stack up. If things go right I can see us possibly getting to the WCF's, but I surely wouldn't pick us in a series vs OKC or SA.
Off the top of my head, The Clipps and the Spurs, for sure, have better 3-8, which is about as far as I go for analysis. OKC, maybe not, but here, Durant is a difference maker. So yeah, Houston is maybe a 4 seed, which, after peeking, they are. They are closer to the Clipps in the standings than I thought, and considering the Clipps, on paper, have a better tandem of stars and are better 3-8--or maybe not with a closer look--this is surprising. _________________ "A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo"
I don't think our supporting cast is as good as you think it is. I mean, it's not garbage, but it's not as good as the supporting casts in OKC, SA or LAC. Harden/Harden are studs, but so are Durant/Westbrook, Duncan/Parker and CP3/Blake. And all of those teams have better benches than us IMO. Compare players 3-12 on all of those teams....we don't stack up. If things go right I can see us possibly getting to the WCF's, but I surely wouldn't pick us in a series vs OKC or SA.
Off the top of my head, The Clipps and the Spurs, for sure, have better 3-8, which is about as far as I go for analysis. OKC, maybe not, but here, Durant is a difference maker. So yeah, Houston is maybe a 4 seed, which, after peeking, they are. They are closer to the Clipps in the standings than I thought, and considering the Clipps, on paper, have a better tandem of stars and are better 3-8--or maybe not with a closer look--this is surprising.
OKCs bench isn't great, but their #3 is better (Parsons vs Ibaka) and Reggie Jackson is better than anyone else on our roster. As far as rounding out the starters if take Perkins and Thabo over Jones and Beverly. Fisher is also solid off the bench. But I agree, the main difference is they have arguably the best player in basketball.
Last edited by Dreamshake on Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:21 am; edited 1 time in total
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