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activeverb
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 Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: Looking back at Dwight Howard, is he still worth a max salary? |
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| ribeye wrote: | Not to have a sour grapes thread, as I definitely wanted Howard and believed he was worthy of a max salary before, on large part due to his 08-11 seasons. Today I don't think so. There is no doubt he would still get a max salary as he is close enough for many teams, but as I watch him and as I see his team play, with him and without, (while remembering last year as well) I don't think he's quite there.
Maybe it is because he has played on three different teams during his last three years and it will take him time to mesh with Houston. Or maybe, he is just not what he once was, and will never get there. |
I'd say he clearly is. The Rockets attendance is up significantly and they are challenging for the best record in the league. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| It's not just about Howard being the best center. The guy has won the Defensive Player of the Year award 3 times in a row. We see how much worse the Laker defense is without him. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Luke wrote: | Regular season means nothing.
The Spurs have the best record with their best players coasting all year : nobody of them has played like a top player, not Parker, not Leonard, not even Duncan: they only played reasonably well here and there.
We will see what Howard is worth when the games mean something .
No excuses for him this season.
He has to lead his team to the promised land .
He has a team good enough to do it.
Time to see what he is really worth... |
The West is loaded this year (again) and Howard is not better than Durant, Lebron or even Blake Griffin in my opinion. The Rockets don't have the best roster or the best coach. I doubt his team makes it past the second round. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Luke wrote: | Regular season means nothing.
The Spurs have the best record with their best players coasting all year : nobody of them has played like a top player, not Parker, not Leonard, not even Duncan: they only played reasonably well here and there.
We will see what Howard is worth when the games mean something .
No excuses for him this season.
He has to lead his team to the promised land .
He has a team good enough to do it.
Time to see what he is really worth... |
I think the flaw in your reasoning is to assume that a guy is only worth the max if he's one of the top couple of players in the league or his team wins a ring. |
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moonriver24
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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Not any more. GMs will drool for a chance to snatch the Brow.
That young Brow is gonna be a great center with his crazy blocking ability.
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wolfpaclaker
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 7:58 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | The West is loaded this year (again) and Howard is not better than Durant, Lebron or even Blake Griffin in my opinion. The Rockets don't have the best roster or the best coach. I doubt his team makes it past the second round. |
Yep.
And I wonder the expectations of a max player are the same across the board. Does that mean since Melo, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, heck even Kevin Durant, haven't led their team to the promised land, they aren't max contract worthy?
By NBA standards, Dwight is a max player without a doubt. However in general, Centers are overpaid. Because there's so few of them. If you can anchor a bit, catch a ball and finish a wide open layup and are 7 feet, that right away puts you at 10 M in the NBA. So in that sense, you can't compare a Center's salary to that of a guard's, because the market is completely different. |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:41 am Post subject: |
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If Dwight was on the market he'd fetch the max immediately. He's likely to be a longterm bad investment, but he's a max guy.
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ahaider wrote: | | jonnybravo wrote: | | ahaider wrote: | | Dreamshake wrote: | | LakersChamps04 wrote: | | Chronicle wrote: | | Romano338 wrote: | | All I know is that he is the best center in the league. Or at the very least a top 3. That worth a lot. |
Noah is the best. |
dwight isn't the clear but best anymore
Noah is there
Hibbert is there
Marc Gasol
Dwight
they're all good in their own ways. and stats dont tell the whole story either |
Dwight is clearly the best C in an era of weak centers. Noah doesn't have his offensive impact. Hibbert doesn't either. Gasol is closer than those two in 2-way impact but still trails Howard. Howard is the only one that is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Yes, he is clearly still worth a max salary since he is the only C in basketball that can make that claim, unless you consider Duncan and Anthony Davis centers.
I think any team would happily pay a C max money if he gave them 19, 12, 2 on 59% and helped them move from an 8 seed to possibly 3 or 4. |
And ultimately, that's what you'll get with Howard. Perpetual 3-4 seeds with no championships.
Prior to his back surgery, Howard was a max player. He was the 3rd best player overall in the NBA after KD & Lebron.
Now - I can't say the same. Too many games, he doesn't show up. While Houston is having a great season, and he's a great fit for a team. Do you really think you're going to be winning a championship as he continues to decline?
His athleticism is fleeting day by day. |
That's still a max player. There are plenty of supposed young "superstars" that have career records barely above an mediocre batting average. In fact, we might get one in a year and I'm okay with that. |
The system is screwed up because the same contract will be afforded to Dwight, Lebron, KD, and to Love, Harden, Carmelo given their length of time in the league.
If we define a max player as any top 10 player yes, he deserves a max contract. But, if we're determining the ROI on these contracts only a few players are really worthy of their max contract.
I think there are two people who justify and exceed their max contract - Lebron and KD.
After that the return on a player like Howard relative to others isn't as great. I'd rather have Steph Curry on his contract (not a max) than Harden on his max. Similar to Howard, I would rather have Noah on his contract, than Howard.
On the tier system of max contracts, Dwight, Melo, Harden cannot be on the same tier as Lebron and KD. Yet they are afforded the same. However, their talent disparity is clear. |
I don't disagree with any of that. That's not what the OP was asking. He's a max player in this league. Adding in tiers of players, relative value is an different conversation. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| ahaider wrote: |
The system is screwed up because the same contract will be afforded to Dwight, Lebron, KD, and to Love, Harden, Carmelo given their length of time in the league. If we define a max player as any top 10 player yes, he deserves a max contract. |
That's the nature of a salary cap system. You have 30 teams competing for the same pool of players and they can all only spend the same amount of money. So the top guy in the league and the 20th best guy in the league will get roughly the same amount. Nothing new about that. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:28 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | ahaider wrote: |
The system is screwed up because the same contract will be afforded to Dwight, Lebron, KD, and to Love, Harden, Carmelo given their length of time in the league. If we define a max player as any top 10 player yes, he deserves a max contract. |
That's the nature of a salary cap system. You have 30 teams competing for the same pool of players and they can all only spend the same amount of money. So the top guy in the league and the 20th best guy in the league will get roughly the same amount. Nothing new about that. |
Indeed. Which brings up why some teams excel and others don't. Shaq and Kobe truly deserved max salaries and they competed against other teams with maybe two max-ish players, but two top 5's against two top-20's is not a fair match--everything else being equal.
Which is where I was going with this, especially with the new CBA:
A smart team, a team with a tradition of winning, a team with a storied franchise, should not focus on those bottom 15-20 max players but the top 5's--if, after all, they will get similar pay. I consider Howard to be closer to the former while Love is closer to the latter. This may change in a year but that's where they stand today.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: |
Which is where I was going with this, especially with the new CBA:
A smart team, a team with a tradition of winning, a team with a storied franchise, should not focus on those bottom 15-20 max players but the top 5's--if, after all, they will get similar pay. I consider Howard to be closer to the former while Love is closer to the latter. This may change in a year but that's where they stand today. |
I think you'll get little disagreement that Lebron and Durant are 1-2 in the league right now. After that, it's wide open. Also, given the CBA, it's unpredictable which of the top guys will ever become free agents, and who will simply resign with their current teams. Personally, I'd love to have Howard, but that boat has sailed. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:48 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | A smart team, a team with a tradition of winning, a team with a storied franchise, should not focus on those bottom 15-20 max players but the top 5's--if, after all, they will get similar pay. |
This could be a chapter heading from The Big Book of Duh. The problem, of course, is that the top 5 guys rarely become available while they are in the top 5.
| ribeye wrote: | | I consider Howard to be closer to the former while Love is closer to the latter. This may change in a year but that's where they stand today. |
I understand that you don't like Howard, but I don't think that many GMs around the league would share this viewpoint. Howard is the premier big man in the league, at least until Anthony Davis has stayed healthy long enough to claim that title. Love is more of a novelty. I would put both of them in the 5-10 range. I would say that the top four players in the league right now are Lebron, Durant, Paul, and Griffin. The gap between 2 and 3 is large, as shown by the fact that the Clippers are not title favorites even though they have players 3 and 4.
Howard's problem is his attitude, and you can't fix that. Snaq had a similar problem, and it never went away. Snaq was just a lot more physically dominant than Howard will ever be. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | A smart team, a team with a tradition of winning, a team with a storied franchise, should not focus on those bottom 15-20 max players but the top 5's--if, after all, they will get similar pay. |
This could be a chapter heading from The Big Book of Duh. The problem, of course, is that the top 5 guys rarely become available while they are in the top 5. |
You miss the point. Often, the lower level max players become available, or are on your team, and you must decide whether or not to get them or keep them. So, many teams opt in, and never give their team the chance, slim as it may be, to get the elite player. Jerry Buss clearly understood this idea. The NY Knicks do not. As I said originally, I would have gone for Howard, as did the Lakers, last year. I would not, this.
| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | I consider Howard to be closer to the former while Love is closer to the latter. This may change in a year but that's where they stand today. |
I understand that you don't like Howard, but I don't think that many GMs around the league would share this viewpoint. Howard is the premier big man in the league, at least until Anthony Davis has stayed healthy long enough to claim that title. Love is more of a novelty. I would put both of them in the 5-10 range. I would say that the top four players in the league right now are Lebron, Durant, Paul, and Griffin. The gap between 2 and 3 is large, as shown by the fact that the Clippers are not title favorites even though they have players 3 and 4.
Howard's problem is his attitude, and you can't fix that. Snaq had a similar problem, and it never went away. Snaq was just a lot more physically dominant than Howard will ever be. |
I don't dislike Howard, I just don't think he is the player he once was. He is, at best, rounding out the top 10, at worst, 15th. Where he was once the most dominant defensive player, I don't see him making third team. He is 14th in DRtg and 9th in defensive win shares. He was first, by far, in both of these categories in the 10 and 11 seasons. Oh, and I take Love over Griffin, but just barely
And you gotta get out of that old school, big men rule mentality. Yes, a big man will always have more value as he is closer to the rim, but his value today (at least those playing today) is not what it has been for the majority of the time the game has been around.
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Last edited by ribeye on Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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focus
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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He's worth a max in the economics of today and given that he is a #2 to Harden. But I'm glad he's not the number 1 Laker option in spite of recent failures. His demeanor and lack of brainpower is just not the Laker way and he didnt want to learn. If we hadnt been Sternscewed and had CP3 and Kobe, and he was then the #3 player, different story.
Regarding expectations - This will be their first playoffs together, and Harden is still just 24. If they win one round only this year in the tough west it will be considered basically a success. They dont have to win a ring this year nor does anyone really expect them too, including their FO. The pressure is basically off them. If Harden gets hot like wildfire, they might take down the spurs. I don't see them beating OKC, but the rest of the seeds sure, why not? This has been a fine season so far for Dwight and for the Rockets.
Next year there will be more impatience if they remain a 4 or below seed.
For our purposes, short of Durant later, there is no top top tier championship level leader who we could get. Not someone who can beat the guys who are currently or potentially championship mettle mentally and physically. Love is not one, Howard wasn't one. Lebron, KD, Griffin possibly, PGeorge possibly someday, KLenard someday, TParker for another year or two, Anthony Davis. Possibly some rook next year like Wiggins. If not one of those guys, then we are looking at a #2 player at best. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| focus wrote: |
For our purposes, short of Durant later, there is no top top tier championship level leader who we could get. |
Those type of guys don't come around very often. It's been what, less than 10 of them since 1980? |
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focus
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Dreamshake wrote: | | focus wrote: |
For our purposes, short of Durant later, there is no top top tier championship level leader who we could get. |
Those type of guys don't come around very often. It's been what, less than 10 of them since 1980? |
Probably...oh what the heck. Let's list them out.
Magic, Bird, Dream, Isaiah, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, DWade, Duncan, KG, Dirk, I'd put Barkley, Pierce, TParker and KD in there. Might put DRobinson in there, but not sure he'd actually outclass any of the above (their teams) as the #1 option. Intuition tells me missing some. Bernard King maybe? Maybe Dominique if he ever had a team. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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For kicks, here are the players, I could find with a first quick look, that have averaged 25 PPG and 10 RPB in a season. This may not be all inclusive or 100% accurate.
Love 2
Duncan 1
Shaq 10
KMalone 9
Olajuwon 4
Robinson 4
Ewing 2
Bird 1
Barkley 5
MMalone 3
McAdoo 6
KAJ 10
Hayes 4
Baylor 8
Chamberlain 10
Pettit 7
Robertson 3
Arizin 1
Mikan 1 (at least)
Any other suggestions like Duncan is welcomed to get this complete.
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Last edited by ribeye on Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:29 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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focus
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | For kicks, here are the players, I could find with a first quick look, that have averaged 25 PPG and 10 RPB in a season. This may not be all inclusive or 100% accurate.
Love 2
Shaq 10
KMalone 9
Olajuwon 4
Robinson 4
Ewing 2
Bird 1
Barkley 5
MMalone 3
McAdoo 6
KAJ 10
Hayes 4
Baylor 8
Chamberlain 10
Pettit 7
Robertson 3
Arizin 1
Mikan 1 (at least) |
No Tim D I guess? |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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You know what they say, if someone will pay him the max then he is worth the max. I am just glad it was Houston and not the Lakers.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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| focus wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | For kicks, here are the players, I could find with a first quick look, that have averaged 25 PPG and 10 RPB in a season. This may not be all inclusive or 100% accurate.
Love 2
Shaq 10
KMalone 9
Olajuwon 4
Robinson 4
Ewing 2
Bird 1
Barkley 5
MMalone 3
McAdoo 6
KAJ 10
Hayes 4
Baylor 8
Chamberlain 10
Pettit 7
Robertson 3
Arizin 1
Mikan 1 (at least) |
No Tim D I guess? |
Jeeze, I should be banned for a week for not even looking. Timmy D is likely the nature of my next topic but I've been hammerin' zombies at another site, and well, screwed up
Duncan 1
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Bellamy 3 |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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| focus wrote: | | Dreamshake wrote: | | focus wrote: |
For our purposes, short of Durant later, there is no top top tier championship level leader who we could get. |
Those type of guys don't come around very often. It's been what, less than 10 of them since 1980? |
Probably...oh what the heck. Let's list them out.
Magic, Bird, Dream, Isaiah, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, DWade, Duncan, KG, Dirk, I'd put Barkley, Pierce, TParker and KD in there. Might put DRobinson in there, but not sure he'd actually outclass any of the above (their teams) as the #1 option. Intuition tells me missing some. Bernard King maybe? Maybe Dominique if he ever had a team. |
I'm down with your first 12. The rest never led a team to a title so I can't count them. Point still remains that those guys are extremely rare. Even if we were to go to 20 since 1980, that's still not a lot. |
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focus
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| Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Dreamshake wrote: | | focus wrote: | | Dreamshake wrote: | | focus wrote: |
For our purposes, short of Durant later, there is no top top tier championship level leader who we could get. |
Those type of guys don't come around very often. It's been what, less than 10 of them since 1980? |
Probably...oh what the heck. Let's list them out.
Magic, Bird, Dream, Isaiah, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, Lebron, DWade, Duncan, KG, Dirk, I'd put Barkley, Pierce, TParker and KD in there. Might put DRobinson in there, but not sure he'd actually outclass any of the above (their teams) as the #1 option. Intuition tells me missing some. Bernard King maybe? Maybe Dominique if he ever had a team. |
I'm down with your first 12. The rest never led a team to a title so I can't count them. Point still remains that those guys are extremely rare. Even if we were to go to 20 since 1980, that's still not a lot. |
Agree, very rare, so target the best of the best that make the difference. Or at least could in theory. Define the difference to mean overcoming the truly elite team(s) with those super super great player(s) too. At least for one year, like Dirk did vs Lebron Wade, though I would never say he's a better player than either. But for a year, he was. I see Paul Geo, Blake Griffin in the same way. But Melo, Howard? KLove? As #1s? Cant even see it hypothetically.
Anyhow, basically means there is either getting KD when time comes, Lebron by some miracle this summer, or lump every other plan together because none of them make a difference at that highest ring contending level. So, sure Id welcome a KLove or a nice rook or Lance Stephenson. Good for some wins surely. Big deal ultimately for the Lakers though. Will be forgotten like those Van Exel teams unless KD or Lebron come in probably. Or some great trade getting one of those other guys under contract (Blake,George, etc) |
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Telleris
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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Houston's bench is pretty embarrassing (apart from Asik) compared to the other contenders, at the same time, their starting lineup only costs about $38m currently, so when the time comes (anytime in the next 2 offseasons), there's certainly room, and of course if durant wants to join his little brother, room will be made.
A lot of that is that they all got to start a few years ago, houston haven't had room or time to add even a single impact player since acquiring dwight. |
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shnxx
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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| he's a max guy but below the level of a player who can win championships as the best player on the team. |
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