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BROW GOAT 23
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Location: Puerto Rico
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 Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:54 pm Post subject: NBA Draft Lottery history: When the worst has won |
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I wanted to shed some light on the draft and our chances. Not all is lost. Good reed.
The biggest surprises of the lottery
The biggest leap to the No. 1 pick was in 1993. After picking O'Neal the year before, the Magic won the lottery despite having the 11th-best odds. They used the selection on Webber and immediately traded the forward to the Golden State Warriors for Penny Hardaway, who became a four-time All-Star for Orlando.
In 1990, the second overall pick went to the Seattle SuperSonics despite them having the 10th-worst record. The Sonics took the opportunity to nab point guard Gary Payton, who was recently inducted into the Hall of Fame.
And the best steal for the No. 3 pick was in 1999, when the Charlotte Hornets and their 13th-worst record jumped up the selection board to grab Baron Davis.
The history of the lottery
The worst team has won the NBA Draft Lottery three times in 23 tries.
The third-worst and fifth-worst teams have won the lottery the most times (five) in the lottery era. The Cavaliers select third and the Pelicans pick fifth this year.
The team with the least likely odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery was the 1993 Orlando Magic, who had the 11th-best chance to win. The seventh-, eighth- and ninth-worst teams have all won the lottery once since 1990.
Team by record # of wins (since 1990)
Worst 3
2nd-worst 4
3rd-worst 5
4th-worst 0
5th-worst 5
6th-worst 2
7th-worst 1
8th-worst 1
9th-worst 1
10th-worst 0
11th-worst 1
12th-worst 0
13th-worst 0
14th-worst 0
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/21/4348616/nba-draft-lottery-history-derrick-rose-lebron-james
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Nash Vegas
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Joined: 01 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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We were tied 9th worst in 2005, we ended up picking lower at 10th.
Thank you Stern.
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Last edited by Nash Vegas on Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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Wow. 5th has won it a bunch.
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TheBlackMamba
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
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tom
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Basicly we have to pray nobody from 7 to 12 leaps frogs us to stay at 6. lol |
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Atticus
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| #6 is also in the range to where Exum's agent can scare teams off to get him to us. Assuming Jabari declares, the top 3 is Wiggins, Jabari, Embiid in some order. Exum would go #4 at best, and even then he'd have to convince scouts he's that much better than Randle (plus you get into team needs and what not). It's very possible Pelinka can scare 2 teams away and get him to us at #6. |
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VanCity
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Top 6 is fine if Jabari and Randle declare |
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Lakers95
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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5th worst has had the most luck getting the number 1 pick.
Guess who's 5th right now?    |
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Nash Vegas
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Atticus wrote: | | #6 is also in the range to where Exum's agent can scare teams off to get him to us. Assuming Jabari declares, the top 3 is Wiggins, Jabari, Embiid in some order. Exum would go #4 at best, and even then he'd have to convince scouts he's that much better than Randle (plus you get into team needs and what not). It's very possible Pelinka can scare 2 teams away and get him to us at #6. |
If Parker doesn't declare, which is the most recent updated posted an hour ago in the lottery thread, then we're
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tom
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| VanCity wrote: | | TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Top 6 is fine if Jabari and Randle declare |
Yeah if we stay at 6 were ok. It the damn teams behind us we have to worry about. |
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Laker_Town
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| this day will only become worst if years from now, boston's pick ends up as a superstar, while ours becomes wesley johnson2.0 |
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K28
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Laker_Town wrote: | | this day will only become worst if years from now, boston's pick ends up as a superstar, while ours becomes wesley johnson2.0 |
There's so many variables at play, it's quite possible that effect of tonight's win is actually positive and not a negative. There's just no way to know. We'll most probably get a high pick though. Just remember that past events are not a predictor for future outcomes. It's easy to fall for the gambler's fallacy when assessing the odds on the lottery. It's also eays to assume that Jimbo won't totally flub the pick too. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Just as we can jump up to the top 3 spots, so theoretically could three teams below us. So even if we have the 6th worst record, we could theoretically drop to the 9th spot. |
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dood23
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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| TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
That was the goal when it was assumed we would be too far to catch up. When it came down to a single game like this, its way different. |
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LALdynasty!
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AIRZOOMKOBE2k5
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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Worst team doesn't win most of the time because it's 3-1 against.
Math is fun. Everyone should learn it. |
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Ja'Crispy
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Joined: 14 Apr 2014
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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| AIRZOOMKOBE2k5 wrote: | Worst team doesn't win most of the time because it's 3-1 against.
Math is fun. Everyone should learn it. |
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NastyNas_87
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:00 am Post subject: |
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| AIRZOOMKOBE2k5 wrote: | Worst team doesn't win most of the time because it's 3-1 against.
Math is fun. Everyone should learn it. |
now explain how the 5th worst has won it 5 times?
averages are good when we have a large sample size. however with such a small sample size, anything can happen. |
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UCSB616
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:28 am Post subject: |
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| NastyNas_87 wrote: | | AIRZOOMKOBE2k5 wrote: | Worst team doesn't win most of the time because it's 3-1 against.
Math is fun. Everyone should learn it. |
now explain how the 5th worst has won it 5 times?
averages are good when we have a large sample size. however with such a small sample size, anything can happen. |
You just answered your own question. Each trial is independent of the rest that had come before it. Same reason there is no point in looking at a roulette wheel board to see if there has been a run of red, black or a certain number. Makes no difference. It's just "relative" probability, what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future.
Point being, there are 30 lotteries (or thereabouts). Microscopic sample size. Plus, the NBA lottery is not a random event, it is very likely controlled (or would be conducted in the open). Therefore some of the "5" seeds may have been manipulated "wins." |
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Gimme_the_rock
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Location: Looking outta the window, watching the asphalt grow ...
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:39 am Post subject: |
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| UCSB616 wrote: | You just answered your own question. Each trial is independent of the rest that had come before it. Same reason there is no point in looking at a roulette wheel board to see if there has been a run of red, black or a certain number. Makes no difference. It's just "relative" probability, what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future.
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Ian Malcolm, is that you? |
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lakerboy
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Just as we can jump up to the top 3 spots, so theoretically could three teams below us. So even if we have the 6th worst record, we could theoretically drop to the 9th spot. |
with our luck since the chris paul fiasco, it's more likely we drop to #7 or #8 then get to the top 3 spots |
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JoJo Dancer
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| lakerboy wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Just as we can jump up to the top 3 spots, so theoretically could three teams below us. So even if we have the 6th worst record, we could theoretically drop to the 9th spot. |
with our luck since the chris paul fiasco, it's more likely we drop to #7 or #8 then get to the top 3 spots |
Seriously. Its some bad karma over us right now. |
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ElginBaylor
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| JoJo Dancer wrote: | | lakerboy wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Just as we can jump up to the top 3 spots, so theoretically could three teams below us. So even if we have the 6th worst record, we could theoretically drop to the 9th spot. |
with our luck since the chris paul fiasco, it's more likely we drop to #7 or #8 then get to the top 3 spots |
Seriously. Its some bad karma over us right now. |
It's also just as likely that a 9th pick could end up being the next NBA superstar. The draft is and always has been a crap shoot. What you should hope for is that we add a decent rotation player on a rookie contract; nothing more, nothing less. That way you have a better chance at not being disappointed.
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Don Draper
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:20 am Post subject: |
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| ElginBaylor wrote: | | JoJo Dancer wrote: | | lakerboy wrote: | | activeverb wrote: | | TheBlackMamba wrote: | | And that's not even including all the jumps up to the 2nd or 3rd pick. I don't know when Team Tank's expectations changed, but I thought the goal was always to make sure we didn't fall past #6, with the thought being that there were 6 elite prospects? And we've achieved that. I'll take a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick in one of the strongest drafts in years over what I was expecting at the beginning of the season (fringe playoff team) any day of the week. |
Just as we can jump up to the top 3 spots, so theoretically could three teams below us. So even if we have the 6th worst record, we could theoretically drop to the 9th spot. |
with our luck since the chris paul fiasco, it's more likely we drop to #7 or #8 then get to the top 3 spots |
Seriously. Its some bad karma over us right now. |
It's also just as likely that a 9th pick could end up being the next NBA superstar. The draft is and always has been a crap shoot. What you should hope for is that we add a decent rotation player on a rookie contract; nothing more, nothing less. That way you have a better chance at not being disappointed. |
I don't know man...2003 draft 5/6 of the top 6 became All-Stars (lol Darko). The 9th pick was some "Michael Sweetney" (who?)
9th pick in 1996 was Samaki Walker  |
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81
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| Not only is the order not set yet, but every draft would've been revised with hindsight a year or two later. Last year, perhaps the best rookie, MCW, went 11th, the year before, Lillard went 6th, in 2010, Paul George went 10th. Even if the Lakers stay at six, or lose a spot, odds are there'll be an excellent player available--the scouts need to be spot on. |
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