Who is your pick for MVP (And your ranking)
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:42 am    Post subject:

Durant will win it, especially with the Heat's struggles. (Though it's not LBJ's fault.)
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 4:07 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
How is Griffin not #2 across the board? LeBron is having a great year, but not an outstanding year for himself in the way that KD and Griffin are.


Most people don't grade MVP on a curve. It's about what a guy is doing this year, not about whether he's doing better than he has in the past.


Oh yes they do. Otherwise David Robinson, Karl Malone, and countless others wouldn't have the award.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 5:58 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
How is Griffin not #2 across the board? LeBron is having a great year, but not an outstanding year for himself in the way that KD and Griffin are.


Most people don't grade MVP on a curve. It's about what a guy is doing this year, not about whether he's doing better than he has in the past.


Oh yes they do. Otherwise David Robinson, Karl Malone, and countless others wouldn't have the award.


I completely disagree with that. I do think people factor in a significant improvement in team performance, but not in personal performance.

And I think you're giving awful examples to justify your position. I don't think David Robinson's MVP year was an improvement on the year before when he finished 2nd in voting.

Ditto with Malone. His two MVP year seem pretty typical years for him. Honestly, I can't even fathom how you see them as above his personal norm.

So let's start there -- explain this great improvement you see for Robinson's and Malone's MVP years, because I don't see it. And certainly their personal stats don't reflect it.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:21 pm    Post subject:

I just think that LeBron is always in contention because he's the best player in the NBA.

I also think, because of that, he overshadows the accomplishment of others. In this case, it isn't just the Clippers's record, it's the fact that Griffin expanded his game so much that he's actually in discussion for Most Improved Player, along with carrying a Clipper team without CP3 for awhile.

I don't think I'm giving awful examples. I've felt the same way when I thought that Kobe Bryant earned MVPs and it was given to Nash anyway.

But, if you want a statistical reference at least:

David Robinson won in the 1994/1995 season.

David Robinson vs Hakeem Olajuwon
Points per game
27.6/27.8
Rebounds per game
10.8/10.8
Assists per game
2.9/3.5
Steals per game
1.7/1.8
Blocks per game
3.2/3.4
FG%
53%/51.7%

Ironically, Robinson earned it the year before, but they gave it to Olajuwon.

Karl Malone's years were just as average as the rest of his career.

That's why I do think there's a "curve" for the MVP. It's also why I think that the MVP award is more based on the team, than the individual. The team wins set the curve, almost regardless of the individual statistics.

Considering the Clippers are 1st in the Pacific Division, why wouldn't he be #2? Especially considering the Clippers and Heat both have 54 wins, but the Clippers are in the West?
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:33 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:

David Robinson won in the 1994/1995 season.

David Robinson vs Hakeem Olajuwon.


I have no idea what you're saying here. I thought your point was that David Robinson was rewarded because his personal performance was better than his typical performance. I don't see why a comparison to Olajuwon is relevant.

Mike@LG wrote:
Karl Malone's years were just as average as the rest of his career.


So you're admitting his personal performance in his MVP years wasn't better than the year's he didn't win. I agree with that.

Mike@LG wrote:
That's why I do think there's a "curve" for the MVP.


Huh? You just acknowledged there wasn't a curve for Malone. Sorry -- at this point, I am not sure if you even know what point you're trying to make -- you're all over the map.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:51 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I just think that LeBron is always in contention because he's the best player in the NBA.


Is there something wrong with that?

Mike@LG wrote:
That's why I do think there's a "curve" for the MVP. It's also why I think that the MVP award is more based on the team, than the individual. The team wins set the curve, almost regardless of the individual statistics.


You say that as if it were something surprising. It shouldn't be.

MVP voting is influenced by a variety of factors, including team success, team improvement, personal stats, personal improvement, wow factor, and media factors (in particular, the Mickey Mantle factor). There are 120ish voters, and they do not all apply the same criteria. To use the 2006 vote that you mentioned, the votes were split all over the place. Nash won by a plurality, not a landslide.

Lebron is one of the best players of all time, and he is at the peak of his career. He's always going to be in the MVP discussion. He isn't going to win it this year because of a combination of disappointing team results, the Mickey Mantle factor, and the fact the Durant has generated a wow factor this year. I would think that all of this would be self-evident to a student of the game such as you.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 9:55 pm    Post subject:

Nightwalker wrote:
Voices wrote:
KD has had a sensational year.... the 25 point streak would still be going, KD showed class by not playing the 4th quarter of his last game. KD is entering his super prime years, he just might become the most unstoppable perimeter player of all time.

As OKC gets healthy they are looking like a monster.....RW is a athletic freak even with the knee surgeries. They can grab you by the throat on defense as well. I would not be surprised if they win this year and the foreseeable future. They have the big three, SI, KD and RW, all three are super athletic and are still getting better.


You think Durant could be or more than likely be more unstoppable offensively than MJ or Kobe for example ever were. Wow...


Think about it, KD is 25 yr. old 6' 10" and this will be his 2nd season with an average over 30 points per game to go along with a 27 career average, he shoots 38% from 3 and 48% overall. KD's super prime years are still ahead of him. KD has the total offensive game now, and it will get even better, he is impossible to stop now. And he has great handles as well.

Will he be better than Kobe and MJ, that remains to be seen, but I will say this he has all the tools and his size gives him an advantage.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:09 pm    Post subject:

Voices wrote:
Nightwalker wrote:
Voices wrote:
KD has had a sensational year.... the 25 point streak would still be going, KD showed class by not playing the 4th quarter of his last game. KD is entering his super prime years, he just might become the most unstoppable perimeter player of all time.

As OKC gets healthy they are looking like a monster.....RW is a athletic freak even with the knee surgeries. They can grab you by the throat on defense as well. I would not be surprised if they win this year and the foreseeable future. They have the big three, SI, KD and RW, all three are super athletic and are still getting better.


You think Durant could be or more than likely be more unstoppable offensively than MJ or Kobe for example ever were. Wow...


Think about it, KD is 25 yr. old 6' 10" and this will be his 2nd season with an average over 30 points per game to go along with a 27 career average, he shoots 38% from 3 and 48% overall. KD's super prime years are still ahead of him. KD has the total offensive game now, and it will get even better, he is impossible to stop now. And he has great handles as well.

Will he be better than Kobe and MJ, that remains to be seen, but I will say this he has all the tools and his size gives him an advantage.


Yes, Durant supremely athletic gifted being 6' 10" with a crazy wingspan who can pull up from 30 and shoot over anyone. If you're just talking about scoring (only) being on or close to MJ/Kobe levels then I agree with you, but when you factor in playmaking, passing, defense, etc. Durant hasn't reached the levels or heights of MJ/Kobe. I just find Durant game little overrated when judge against certain NBA greats. I'm not saying he can't ever get there eventually but has very long ways to go, I need to see more before I put Durant on their levels is all.


Last edited by Nightwalker on Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:18 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:16 pm    Post subject:

Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac?
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:05 pm    Post subject:

Nightwalker wrote:
Voices wrote:
Nightwalker wrote:
Voices wrote:
KD has had a sensational year.... the 25 point streak would still be going, KD showed class by not playing the 4th quarter of his last game. KD is entering his super prime years, he just might become the most unstoppable perimeter player of all time.

As OKC gets healthy they are looking like a monster.....RW is a athletic freak even with the knee surgeries. They can grab you by the throat on defense as well. I would not be surprised if they win this year and the foreseeable future. They have the big three, SI, KD and RW, all three are super athletic and are still getting better.


You think Durant could be or more than likely be more unstoppable offensively than MJ or Kobe for example ever were. Wow...


Think about it, KD is 25 yr. old 6' 10" and this will be his 2nd season with an average over 30 points per game to go along with a 27 career average, he shoots 38% from 3 and 48% overall. KD's super prime years are still ahead of him. KD has the total offensive game now, and it will get even better, he is impossible to stop now. And he has great handles as well.

Will he be better than Kobe and MJ, that remains to be seen, but I will say this he has all the tools and his size gives him an advantage.


Yes, Durant supremely athletic gifted being 6' 10" with a crazy wingspan who can pull up from 30 and shoot over anyone. If you're just talking about scoring (only) being on or close to MJ/Kobe levels then I agree with you, but when you factor in playmaking, passing, defense, etc. Durant hasn't reached the levels or heights of MJ/Kobe. I just find Durant game little overrated when judge against certain NBA greats. I'm not saying he can't ever get there eventually but has very long ways to go, I need to see more before I put Durant on their levels is all.


Yes, KD is not as good as either MJ or Kobe, defense and playmaking is not his strength, however he play's as a 3 so rebounding is a priority and is a strength, he has a career average of 7 boards per game which is better than either MJ of Kobe. I believe if KD wants to be an all time elite player he will have to improve his defense and playmaking. We differ slightly, I do not believe KD is overrated, however he needs to improve parts of his game. If he stays healthy we just might see some scoring records fall, KD is a rare talent.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:10 pm    Post subject:

Nightwalker wrote:
Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac?


No doubt he needs to win championships, he has been on some good teams, but those teams were young..... now it's time to put up or shut up!
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:54 am    Post subject:

Voices wrote:
Nightwalker wrote:
Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac?


No doubt he needs to win championships, he has been on some good teams, but those teams were young..... now it's time to put up or shut up!


Yes, Durant needs to finally win a ring. Is there any reason why Durant isn't as heavily criticized as other superstars?

Post Shaq: Kobe was being called out for getting taken out early and was 'being carried by Shaq.'

Lebron: At the same age as Durant, Lebron was being called out for not being able to win a ring and getting punked out of playoffs.

Dwight: He's been called out mainly due to the Orlando and Lakers fiasco.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:26 am    Post subject:

Durant
James

That part is easy. They bunch up beyond.

Curry
Harden
Love
Griffin
Paul
Lowry
Nowitzki
Noah
Jordan

Based on this, you'd think the Clipps would have a great shot.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:31 am    Post subject:

Durant
Kobe
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:33 am    Post subject:

Deandre Jordan an MVP candidate? Really?
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:41 am    Post subject:

Nightwalker wrote:
Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac?


I understand and agree that Durant needs to win titles to get into the discussion with the all time greats.

But TMac? Okay, he had a couple years in Orlando when he posted HoF numbers. In '03, TMac averaged 32.1/6.0/5.5 with a PER of 30.3. If TMac had sustained that sort of production, he'd be in the discussion with the all-time greats. But he didn't. In the prime of his career, he typically averaged 24ish ppg, 5.5ish rpg, and 5.5ish apg with a 22ish or 23ish PER.

So basically TMac had one season at the level that Durant has been playing for five years now, and maybe a couple other seasons that were in the ballpark. That's the difference. TMac's best season was equivalent to a normal season for Durant.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:05 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Nightwalker wrote:
Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac?


I understand and agree that Durant needs to win titles to get into the discussion with the all time greats.

But TMac? Okay, he had a couple years in Orlando when he posted HoF numbers. In '03, TMac averaged 32.1/6.0/5.5 with a PER of 30.3. If TMac had sustained that sort of production, he'd be in the discussion with the all-time greats. But he didn't. In the prime of his career, he typically averaged 24ish ppg, 5.5ish rpg, and 5.5ish apg with a 22ish or 23ish PER.

So basically TMac had one season at the level that Durant has been playing for five years now, and maybe a couple other seasons that were in the ballpark. That's the difference. TMac's best season was equivalent to a normal season for Durant.


Like the torch-bearer who's best month was still worse than either LBJ/Kobe/Durant's typical day at the office.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:17 am    Post subject:

Chronicle wrote:
Deandre Jordan an MVP candidate? Really?


Quite possibly this is directed against me, placing him 11th. I wouldn't call that an MVP candidate, but let's skip the semantics.

He leads the league in offensive rebounds
He leads the league in defensive rebounds
He leads the league in rebounds per game.
He leads the league in shooting percentage (the second best in 40 years and fourth best of all time).
He is second in the league in blocks
He is third in the league in blocks per game.
He is fourth in the league in TS%
He is third in the league in defensive win shares
He is fourth in the league in offensive rating
He is eighth in the league in defensive rating
He has the largest differential between offensive and defensive rating
He is ninth in the league in win shares.
He is fourteenth in the league in WS/48
He is ninth in ASPM
He is ninth in Value Over Replacement Player (ahead of Griffin)
He is fifteenth in the league in xRAPM

Not a bad season.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:54 am    Post subject:

^^^^

This does a good job of illustrating why WS and individual DRtg and ORtg are such poor stats. Sure, you can make a case for Jordan based on his rebounding, but he's not one of the top players in the league. Fourth in the league in ORtg? That by itself should tell you that ORtg is a bad stat as applied to individual players (as opposed to teams). This is a guy who averages six shots per game.

I happen to think that DeAndre Jordan is underrated, but you're letting the stats do too much of your thinking for you. A 10/13 big man is valuable, but not an MVP candidate.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:30 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

This does a good job of illustrating why WS and individual DRtg and ORtg are such poor stats. Sure, you can make a case for Jordan based on his rebounding, but he's not one of the top players in the league. Fourth in the league in ORtg? That by itself should tell you that ORtg is a bad stat as applied to individual players (as opposed to teams). This is a guy who averages six shots per game.

I happen to think that DeAndre Jordan is underrated, but you're letting the stats do too much of your thinking for you. A 10/13 big man is valuable, but not an MVP candidate.


Well we don't agree. Now, if I had just cherry picked ORtg (indeed, one of the least valuable metrics) as my basis, then your point might have validity, but when you look at all the numbers, in total, his season is among the top 10 - 15 players, not as you suggest I imply, that he is an MVP candidate. As I indicated, he's the third best player on his team, hardly what I would call an MVP candidate.

A 10.5 /13.7 player, who has 2.5 blocks, shoots .675 and is arguably the second or third best defensive player in the league (yeah, that side of the court is also valuable) is someone I want on my team.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:17 am    Post subject:

^^^^

DeAndre Jordan is the second or third best defensive player in the league? Good heavens, no. He's a good rebounder, but an average defensive center overall. Defensive RPM puts him at #19 among centers. That's about right
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:43 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

DeAndre Jordan is the second or third best defensive player in the league? Good heavens, no. He's a good rebounder, but an average defensive center overall. Defensive RPM puts him at #19 among centers. That's about right


He has a defensive rating of 98. He is third with 5.8 defensive win shares and has a dWS/48 of .098, compared to Noah who is 6.4 and 1.12 . . .

But . . look at their teams, or Indiana's for that matter.

Chicago has a team DRtg of 100.5 (second in the league like they should be), compared to Noah's 96. The other players with 2000 or more minutes are 101, 102, 100, 99, and 102. The TEAM is defensively oriented.

Indiana has a team DRtg of 99.4 (first in the league like they should be), compared to George's 97. The other players with 2000 or more minutes are 101, 99, 102, 98, with 99, 97 for the next two in minutes. The TEAM is defensively oriented.

The Clipps have a team DRtg of 104.7, compared to Jordan's 98. Look at the differential. The other players with 2000 or more minutes are 103, 103, 109, 107 with 109, 105 for the next two in minutes.

Using Holinger's Defensive Efficiency, Indiana and Chicago are 1-2 at 96.8 and 97.8 respectively. The Clipps are at 101.9

As I've warned with any of the advanced +/- regression calculations such as RAPM, SPM, xRAPM, or ESPN's entry into this, data is necessary to have a sufficient sample share. Also, the regression assumptions must be valid. One year is not a good representation, as there are not enough minutes with the lesser used combinations to generate a meaningful number.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:29 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
He has a defensive rating of 98, He is third with 5.8 defensive win shares and dWS/48 of .098, compared to Noah who is 6.4 and 1.12 . . .


Those are box score based stats, and box scores do not capture defense.

ribeye wrote:
But . . look at their teams, or Indiana's for that matter.

Chicago has a team DRtg of 100.5 (second in the league like they should be), compared to Noah's 96. The other players with 2000 or more minutes are 101, 102, 100, 99, and 102. The TEAM is defensively oriented.


Team DRtg is a different stat from individual DRtg. Team DRtg is simply how many points a team gives up per 100 possessions. That is a rock solid stat. Individual DRtg is an attempt to allocate defense among individual players based on box score stats. It's garbage. It will inflate guys who produce tangible results in the form of rebounds, blocks, and steals, but it will not reflect everything else that a player does on defense.

DeAndre Jordan is not a great defensive center. He isn't even a good defensive center. But he does rack up rebounds and blocks, so he will rate highly on box score based measures.

Here's an article on the subject:

http://nba.si.com/2014/02/04/the-fundamentals-deandre-jordan-los-angeles-clippers/

Quote:
What’s even more maddening is that Jordan isn’t at all a lost cause. He’s capable of staying down to blanket an opposing post scorer, but in other situations will bite on obvious pump fakes. He’s athletic enough to get down in a defensive stance to keep opposing guards in front of him, but careless enough to let an opposing big drive by him for an uncontested dunk. He’ll hold his ground against Roy Hibbert on the block but give an easy angle to Andre Drummond. He nimbly darts out of the paint to take away one open shot, then proceeds to surrender wide open mid-range jumpers to any other opponent interested in taking one: [video omitted]

That inconsistency is why the Clippers’ defense, though a top-10 outfit in points allowed per possession, rarely seems water-tight. Rivers needs Jordan to be a defensive captain and a technical whiz — to read the floor perfectly for himself and his teammates, and to bark corresponding instructions from the back line. That was the standard set in Boston, where Kevin Garnett arrived with the unique ability to cover tons of ground, defend space without losing focus, and snap into rotation at just the right moment. That combination made him a perfect fit for the defensive scheme Rivers had hoped to execute, but Jordan isn’t anywhere near that level of defensive proficiency — separated from Garnett’s example by a matter of class rather than mere degree.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:58 am    Post subject:

ribeye wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

This does a good job of illustrating why WS and individual DRtg and ORtg are such poor stats. Sure, you can make a case for Jordan based on his rebounding, but he's not one of the top players in the league. Fourth in the league in ORtg? That by itself should tell you that ORtg is a bad stat as applied to individual players (as opposed to teams). This is a guy who averages six shots per game.

I happen to think that DeAndre Jordan is underrated, but you're letting the stats do too much of your thinking for you. A 10/13 big man is valuable, but not an MVP candidate.


Well we don't agree. Now, if I had just cherry picked ORtg (indeed, one of the least valuable metrics) as my basis, then your point might have validity, but when you look at all the numbers, in total, his season is among the top 10 - 15 players, not as you suggest I imply, that he is an MVP candidate. As I indicated, he's the third best player on his team, hardly what I would call an MVP candidate.

A 10.5 /13.7 player, who has 2.5 blocks, shoots .675 and is arguably the second or third best defensive player in the league (yeah, that side of the court is also valuable) is someone I want on my team.


His shooting percentage is so high because he has no offensive game besides a few fancy dunks here and there. I read an article recently that quoted Doc Rivers saying they hadn't run an offensive play for him all season. Does that sound like a top 10-15 player in the league? I don't think so.

That also ignores his horrible free throw shooting.

I've seen numbers that show Blake Griffin and Chris Paul do more for the Clipper defense than Jordan.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:59 am    Post subject:

Durant
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