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Steve007
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 Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Also ranking Jordan that high is like saying he is better than players like Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol. Is Jordan the best center in the game? I've never seen anyone mention him in that type of a discussion before. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | He has a defensive rating of 98, He is third with 5.8 defensive win shares and dWS/48 of .098, compared to Noah who is 6.4 and 1.12 . . . |
Those are box score based stats, and box scores do not capture defense.
| ribeye wrote: | But . . look at their teams, or Indiana's for that matter.
Chicago has a team DRtg of 100.5 (second in the league like they should be), compared to Noah's 96. The other players with 2000 or more minutes are 101, 102, 100, 99, and 102. The TEAM is defensively oriented. |
Team DRtg is a different stat from individual DRtg. [b]Team DRtg is simply how many points a team gives up per 100 possessions. That is a rock solid stat. Individual DRtg is an attempt to allocate defense among individual players based on box score stats. It's garbage. It will inflate guys who produce tangible results in the form of rebounds, blocks, and steals, but it will not reflect everything else that a player does on defense.[/b]
DeAndre Jordan is not a great defensive center. He isn't even a good defensive center. But he does rack up rebounds and blocks, so he will rate highly on box score based measures.
Here's an article on the subject:
http://nba.si.com/2014/02/04/the-fundamentals-deandre-jordan-los-angeles-clippers/
| Quote: | What’s even more maddening is that Jordan isn’t at all a lost cause. He’s capable of staying down to blanket an opposing post scorer, but in other situations will bite on obvious pump fakes. He’s athletic enough to get down in a defensive stance to keep opposing guards in front of him, but careless enough to let an opposing big drive by him for an uncontested dunk. He’ll hold his ground against Roy Hibbert on the block but give an easy angle to Andre Drummond. He nimbly darts out of the paint to take away one open shot, then proceeds to surrender wide open mid-range jumpers to any other opponent interested in taking one: [video omitted]
That inconsistency is why the Clippers’ defense, though a top-10 outfit in points allowed per possession, rarely seems water-tight. Rivers needs Jordan to be a defensive captain and a technical whiz — to read the floor perfectly for himself and his teammates, and to bark corresponding instructions from the back line. That was the standard set in Boston, where Kevin Garnett arrived with the unique ability to cover tons of ground, defend space without losing focus, and snap into rotation at just the right moment. That combination made him a perfect fit for the defensive scheme Rivers had hoped to execute, but Jordan isn’t anywhere near that level of defensive proficiency — separated from Garnett’s example by a matter of class rather than mere degree. |
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I'm a big fan of some of the new advanced statistics but I'm still surprised at how many people still throw out Drtg without really looking at how that number was ascertained. I'm in complete agreement that it's another way to frame a box score (rebounds, steals, blocks).
It's starting to get precariously close to not even watching games and box score reading to come to that determination.
Measuring the delta of team vs individual drtg and assuming the player with the higher one is a better defender? I don't know about that. What that tells me is that the guy with a huge individual drtg and a mediocre team drth isn't making too much of an impact. This was like Marcus Camby's Dpoy. Guy put up gaudy stats but defensively his team was (bleep). Maybe it's just me but I'd think a legit Dpoy would actually improve his team's defense. |
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Telleris
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Nightwalker wrote: | | Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac? |
He won a playoff round? |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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First, team DRtg and player DRtg use the same approach. It estimates how many points the player or the team allowed per 100 possessions.
You (Aeneas) point to an article that links to another site for advanced +/-, IPV, acknowledging that Jordan "has amazingly high marks" in, not a box score stat, but a +/-. Here, Jordan finishes 8th (more evidence he is a top 10-15 player, by the way), which considering his offense--which wouldn't the factor for his high position--and that none above him are considered elite defenders, would likely place him at or near the top defensively, by this measure.
The author of the original article points to a situation where Jordan did not cover his man on a pick and roll. I'm sure it happened and has happened many times. Mistakes happen with all players. If this is a pattern however, we have something else. The author then goes to what he suggests would be indicative of such a pattern, shooting in the restricted area, which he indicates is poor for the team. According to NBA.com, the Clipps are 14th 0-5' out and 18th 5-9', or about average.
The author states,
| Quote: | | On a simpler level, he’s indisputably elite as a rebounder (where he ranks second in the league in rebound rate), a finisher (where he boasts the highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA, despite the fact that he never shoots three-pointers), and a shot blocker (where he’s posted a top-10 block rate and more total blocks than all but two players). But while Jordan has clear on-court value in each of those distinct categories, his relationship with team defense remains a bit more complicated. |
And so it is. You see it one way and I see it another. There is no perfect measure for offense, let alone defense, but defensive win shares and DRtg are about the best we have today. When you look at the players known to be good defensively (George, Hibbert, Duncan, Boguts, Leonard), they are at the top of one or the other, if not both. Only Noah, George, Hibbert, West, Duncan and Jordan are in the top 10 for both defensive win shares and DRtg. Three of these are from the best defensive team in the league, known for its defensive focus; one is from the second best, with the same rep; one plays only 29 minutes per. Then there's Jordan.
After Noah, Jordan is the only center in the group without a great swing defender, like George or Leonard.
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Telleris
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | First, team DRtg and player DRtg use the same approach. It estimates how many points the player or the team allowed per 100 possessions. |
Team Drtg isn't an estimate, it's an average, player Drtg is an estimate, they are not the same approach, the latter is an attempt to estimate how much an individual player impacts the team defense. It's using play by play to estimate when a player is involved individually, a really really bad way of doing it.
| Quote: | | And so it is. You see it one way and I see it another. There is no perfect measure for offense, let alone defense, but defensive win shares and DRtg are about the best we have today. |
The SportsVU tracking data is better, not by a little bit, but by an awful lot. It needs some context to further understand, but it's using the actual location of players to determine their involvement, a vastly superior method.
The box score stats are beyond useless for defense because they reward the wrong things, player 1 defender by player 2, who breaks the dribble free to be taken by player 3, box score and play by play rewards player 3, sportsvu rewards player 2, sportsvu is right, player 2 chucks the roll man, what impact do you assign the player who stops the roll man forcing a tough shot into the help defender? play by play and box score gives you nothing despite being the most important part and this permeates through the whole thing. |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | First, team DRtg and player DRtg use the same approach. It estimates how many points the player or the team allowed per 100 possessions.
You (Aeneas) point to an article that links to another site for advanced +/-, IPV, acknowledging that Jordan "has amazingly high marks" in, not a box score stat, but a +/-. Here, Jordan finishes 8th (more evidence he is a top 10-15 player, by the way), which considering his offense--which wouldn't the factor for his high position--and that none above him are considered elite defenders, would likely place him at or near the top defensively, by this measure.
The author of the original article points to a situation where Jordan did not cover his man on a pick and roll. I'm sure it happened and has happened many times. Mistakes happen with all players. If this is a pattern however, we have something else. The author then goes to what he suggests would be indicative of such a pattern, shooting in the restricted area, which he indicates is poor for the team. According to NBA.com, the Clipps are 14th 0-5' out and 18th 5-9', or about average.
The author states,
| Quote: | | On a simpler level, he’s indisputably elite as a rebounder (where he ranks second in the league in rebound rate), a finisher (where he boasts the highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA, despite the fact that he never shoots three-pointers), and a shot blocker (where he’s posted a top-10 block rate and more total blocks than all but two players). But while Jordan has clear on-court value in each of those distinct categories, his relationship with team defense remains a bit more complicated. |
And so it is. You see it one way and I see it another. There is no perfect measure for offense, let alone defense, but defensive win shares and DRtg are about the best we have today. When you look at the players known to be good defensively (George, Hibbert, Duncan, Boguts, Leonard), they are at the top of one or the other, if not both. Only Noah, George, Hibbert, West, Duncan and Jordan are in the top 10 for both defensive win shares and DRtg. Three of these are from the best defensive team in the league, known for its defensive focus; one is from the second best, with the same rep; one plays only 29 minutes per. Then there's Jordan.
After Noah, Jordan is the only center in the group without a great swing defender, like George or Leonard. |
No they don't. They don't use the same methodology to arrive at their value at all. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | First, team DRtg and player DRtg use the same approach. It estimates how many points the player or the team allowed per 100 possessions. |
As the others have pointed out, you're just wrong about this.
| ribeye wrote: | | You (Aeneas) point to an article that links to another site for advanced +/-, IPV, acknowledging that Jordan "has amazingly high marks" in, not a box score stat, but a +/-. Here, Jordan finishes 8th (more evidence he is a top 10-15 player, by the way), which considering his offense--which wouldn't the factor for his high position--and that none above him are considered elite defenders, would likely place him at or near the top defensively, by this measure. |
Have you just turned into a quack on us? DeAndre Jordan is a mediocre defensive center with no offensive skills, but you're trying to find a way to say that he's a superstar.
You should start a poll asking whether DeAndre Jordan is a top 10-15 player in the league. Seriously. I've given you an article analyzing DeAndre's defensive problems, but you just brush it off in favor of some stats. Poll the community and find out what everyone else thinks. |
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Nightwalker
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Telleris wrote: | | Nightwalker wrote: | | Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac? |
He won a playoff round? |
Huh? Please don't tell me T-Mac rosters were as stacked as Durant team since (2011). Also in my opinion the NBA was stronger overall at that time compared to now when factor in players and the league as a whole. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | I'm a big fan of some of the new advanced statistics but I'm still surprised at how many people still throw out Drtg without really looking at how that number was ascertained. I'm in complete agreement that it's another way to frame a box score (rebounds, steals, blocks).
It's starting to get precariously close to not even watching games and box score reading to come to that determination.
Measuring the delta of team vs individual drtg and assuming the player with the higher one is a better defender? I don't know about that. What that tells me is that the guy with a huge individual drtg and a mediocre team drth isn't making too much of an impact. This was like Marcus Camby's Dpoy. Guy put up gaudy stats but defensively his team was (bleep). Maybe it's just me but I'd think a legit Dpoy would actually improve his team's defense. |
I used to throw out DRtg myself, just because there wasn't anything better. I'm sort of excited by defensive RPM. It's the first measure of defense that passes the eyeball test for me. It still has flaws. For example, you need to compare comparable players -- PGs vs. PGs, etc. Big men have a built in advantage, so comparing a PG to a C isn't very useful. There are also some oddities, like Larry Sanders being the top defensive center. Still, I get the feeling that this is a major step toward a meaningful metric for NBA defense.
Marcus Camby was a questionable pick for DPoY, but that was a weak year for candidates. Second place was an old Bruce Bowen. Maybe the award should have gone to Bowen that year, but it's not like Camby over Bowen was a horrible choice. |
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Jeggs
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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KD got the MVP with ease this season. Paul George as the runner up, then Lebron  |
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Nightwalker
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| Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Voices wrote: | | Nightwalker wrote: | | Voices wrote: | | Nightwalker wrote: | | Voices wrote: | KD has had a sensational year.... the 25 point streak would still be going, KD showed class by not playing the 4th quarter of his last game. KD is entering his super prime years, he just might become the most unstoppable perimeter player of all time.
As OKC gets healthy they are looking like a monster.....RW is a athletic freak even with the knee surgeries. They can grab you by the throat on defense as well. I would not be surprised if they win this year and the foreseeable future. They have the big three, SI, KD and RW, all three are super athletic and are still getting better. |
You think Durant could be or more than likely be more unstoppable offensively than MJ or Kobe for example ever were. Wow... |
Think about it, KD is 25 yr. old 6' 10" and this will be his 2nd season with an average over 30 points per game to go along with a 27 career average, he shoots 38% from 3 and 48% overall. KD's super prime years are still ahead of him. KD has the total offensive game now, and it will get even better, he is impossible to stop now. And he has great handles as well.
Will he be better than Kobe and MJ, that remains to be seen, but I will say this he has all the tools and his size gives him an advantage. |
Yes, Durant supremely athletic gifted being 6' 10" with a crazy wingspan who can pull up from 30 and shoot over anyone. If you're just talking about scoring (only) being on or close to MJ/Kobe levels then I agree with you, but when you factor in playmaking, passing, defense, etc. Durant hasn't reached the levels or heights of MJ/Kobe. I just find Durant game little overrated when judge against certain NBA greats. I'm not saying he can't ever get there eventually but has very long ways to go, I need to see more before I put Durant on their levels is all. |
Yes, KD is not as good as either MJ or Kobe, defense and playmaking is not his strength, however he play's as a 3 so rebounding is a priority and is a strength, he has a career average of 7 boards per game which is better than either MJ of Kobe. I believe if KD wants to be an all time elite player he will have to improve his defense and playmaking. We differ slightly, I do not believe KD is overrated, however he needs to improve parts of his game. If he stays healthy we just might see some scoring records fall, KD is a rare talent. |
Solid post. I do agree KD is a rare talent that comes around every ten years or so. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:26 am Post subject: |
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Team ORtg/DRtg and player ORtg/DRtg are both estimates, as anyone who has looked at the formulas for both should be able to see. Until someone actually counts possessions, both possessions and pace are estimates. They do use different methodologies, but the approach (or maybe better stated the goal) is the same: to arrive at points per 100.
Defensive win shares is better.
RAPM is a good measure, as is 82games data, but when xRAPM has Durant 10th, something's wrong in the assumptions.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:39 am Post subject: |
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Defensive Win Shares
1. Joakim Noah-CHI 6.5
2. Paul George-IND 6.4
3. DeAndre Jordan-LAC 5.8
4. David West-IND 5.0
5. Roy Hibbert-IND 4.9
6. Lance Stephenson-IND 4.8
7. Tim Duncan-SAS 4.6
8. Al Jefferson-CHA 4.6
9. Jimmy Butler-CHI 4.5
10. Kevin Durant-OKC 4.5
ESPN DRPM
1 Larry Sanders, C MIL 6.35
2 Kevin Garnett, C BKN 5.93
3 Tim Duncan, PF SA 74 5.29
4 Dwight Howard, C HOU 4.97
5 Andrew Bogut, C GS 4.94
6 Andre Iguodala, SF GS 4.87
7 Marc Gasol, C MEM 58 4.85
8 Omer Asik, C HOU 48 4.61
9 Tiago Splitter, C SA 58 4.51
10 Nene Hilario, PF WSH 52 4.44
DRtg
1. Joakim Noah-CHI 95.9
2. Andrew Bogut-GSW 96.2
3. Paul George-IND 97.1
4. Tim Duncan-SAS 97.5
5. Draymond Green-GSW 97.6
6. Kawhi Leonard-SAS 98.1
7. Roy Hibbert-IND 98.3
8. DeAndre Jordan-LAC 98.3
9. Carlos Boozer-CHI 98.6
10. David West-IND 98.6
I don't see any of these are the Holly Grail but when Sanders and KG are 1-2, I question the approach.
(edit: There is only one player on all three lists, the amazing Tim Duncan)
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Last edited by ribeye on Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:21 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:56 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | Also ranking Jordan that high is like saying he is better than players like Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol. Is Jordan the best center in the game? I've never seen anyone mention him in that type of a discussion before. |
I wouldn't make that comment, but I would say he had a better season.
Jordan beats or equals Howard in all the major categories except points. Here, Howard shoots more, but is less efficient at it, shooting .594 to .675.
When you look further, Howard's 73.4% from 0-3' is nearly identical compared to Jordan's 71.7%, but he gets more touches inside--maybe a factor of not having a Griffin, who shoots 40% of his shoots from 0-3'. When these guys begin to depart is in the 3-10' range, where Howard gets over 40% of his shots, but here, he shoots 40.6% to Jordan's 47.7%.
Marc has not had the season, in part due to injury, as he did last year.
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ribeye
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Telleris wrote: |
The SportsVU tracking data is better, not by a little bit, but by an awful lot. |
Undoubtedly. But considering:
| Quote: | | Some teams don’t see a use for it right now. Other teams think it’s too expensive (SportVU costs “mid-five figures to low-six figures per year,” Kopp says, or about $8.8 million less than what Lamar Odom made this year). One team, the Mavericks, stopped using SportVU this year to use their own system (which many believe tracks similar data to SportVU, but Dallas won’t share). |
I'll pass.
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/492/492
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:30 am Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | Also ranking Jordan that high is like saying he is better than players like Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol. Is Jordan the best center in the game? I've never seen anyone mention him in that type of a discussion before. |
I think it is possible we will in the future. Jordan is on the way up, while Howard and Gasol are on the way down.
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | Durant
Lebron
(rest don't matter to me). |
This. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | | How is Griffin not #2 across the board? LeBron is having a great year, but not an outstanding year for himself in the way that KD and Griffin are. |
I stack guys against ow other guys are doing this season, not against how they ight have done or done compared to others in the past. LeBron's down season is still > everyone else but Durant. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| Nightwalker wrote: | | Voices wrote: | KD has had a sensational year.... the 25 point streak would still be going, KD showed class by not playing the 4th quarter of his last game. KD is entering his super prime years, he just might become the most unstoppable perimeter player of all time.
As OKC gets healthy they are looking like a monster.....RW is a athletic freak even with the knee surgeries. They can grab you by the throat on defense as well. I would not be surprised if they win this year and the foreseeable future. They have the big three, SI, KD and RW, all three are super athletic and are still getting better. |
You think Durant could be or more than likely be more unstoppable offensively than MJ or Kobe for example ever were. Wow... |
It's possible. He's what, 25? What he is doing this season is comparable to their best years offensively. This year Durant is at 32, 6 on 51%, 39% and 87% shooting. 63.6% TS, 56.1% eFG% and 14.5 OWS. They all scored in different ways but he is arguably as unstoppable as any scorer we have seen. He can drive, has a handle, gets to the line, has midrange, range from distance and he can shoot over practically anyone. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| Nightwalker wrote: | | Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac? |
Prime T-Mac never led a team past round 1, and he wasn't facinf worldbeater teams every year either. Durant has already led his team to the Finals, the conf finals twice and he got past round 1 last year without Westbrook. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:48 am Post subject: |
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| Nightwalker wrote: | | Telleris wrote: | | Nightwalker wrote: | | Durant has had pretty stacked teams since 2011, he needs start having long productive playoff runs and final appearance along with championships. Let me ask you question, if Durant doesn't start winning anything in next 2-3 years what makes Durant better than prime T-Mac? |
He won a playoff round? |
Huh? Please don't tell me T-Mac rosters were as stacked as Durant team since (2011). Also in my opinion the NBA was stronger overall at that time compared to now when factor in players and the league as a whole. |
T-Mac never had a team as talanted as Durant's, but he had enough help to get out of round 1 in some years. For example, the years where we played Utah in the postseason, those Jazz teams weren't stacked. I recall the year they had Fisher and Sloan would let Fisher check T-Mac without much help....and they got away with it. Try that on Durant, or Kobe. That's when I knew T-Mac wasn't going to lead us anywhere. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | Steve007 wrote: | | Also ranking Jordan that high is like saying he is better than players like Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol. Is Jordan the best center in the game? I've never seen anyone mention him in that type of a discussion before. |
I wouldn't make that comment, but I would say he had a better season.
Jordan beats or equals Howard in all the major categories except points. Here, Howard shoots more, but is less efficient at it, shooting .594 to .675.
When you look further, Howard's 73.4% from 0-3' is nearly identical compared to Jordan's 71.7%, but he gets more touches inside--maybe a factor of not having a Griffin, who shoots 40% of his shoots from 0-3'. When these guys begin to depart is in the 3-10' range, where Howard gets over 40% of his shots, but here, he shoots 40.6% to Jordan's 47.7%.
Marc has not had the season, in part due to injury, as he did last year. |
This is where stats can lie. Howard is an integral piece of the Rockets offense. His presence improves spacing for his teammates, he gets guys open looks off double-teams and the ability to go through him for stretches keeps Harden fresh to close games (he was 2nd in4th qtr scoring last time I checked). Jordan does not impact the game like that. Even just looking at the first stat, fg%, is flawed. You can give the ball to Howard to go get points. All Jordan can do is finish.
Stats can lie.... |
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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OTOH, Howard's team is winning at a lesser pace than the injury plagued Lakers did with him over the last 40 games of last season (67% vs 70%)...
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Dreamshake wrote: |
Stats can lie.... |
And prejudices can make the eyes see what they want to see.
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