NBA Draft Lottery history: When the worst has won
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TheElectronica
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:53 am    Post subject:

You guys need to stop looking at past drafts.

It's irrelevant to the prospects this year. You can piss and moan about being 6th but it still gives you a shot at a guy like Smart who might have gone #2 last year. Not to mention a guy like Gordon who would have been top 5 most years. This year is overrated in terms of finding a "franchise changing" player like Davis or Kyrie or Rose from the get go, top 8 is deep and there are multiple guys that have high upsides.

Who knows, maybe someone takes a risk on Vonleh early, or Smart early and Exum falls.
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rybee
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:57 am    Post subject:

TheElectronica wrote:
You guys need to stop looking at past drafts.

It's irrelevant to the prospects this year. You can piss and moan about being 6th but it still gives you a shot at a guy like Smart who might have gone #2 last year. Not to mention a guy like Gordon who would have been top 5 most years. This year is overrated in terms of finding a "franchise changing" player like Davis or Kyrie or Rose from the get go, top 8 is deep and there are multiple guys that have high upsides.

Who knows, maybe someone takes a risk on Vonleh early, or Smart early and Exum falls.


I agree. I have never seen a draft that follows all the mock drafts and consensus top 5 picks ever. There is usually always a surprise pick and someone falling
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TheElectronica
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:01 am    Post subject:

I see plenty of guys that might rise and guys that might fall. Exum or Embiid are guys I'd love to have at 6 and honestly, I can see them falling.

I know we want BPA, but other teams are in the business of having to sell tickets. Milwaukee can't really pass up a chance on Parker and sell tickets right away. Same with Utah. Randle can help right away, as can Smart. Some team might be suckered into Vonleh's length and athleticism early.

Not to mention Exum seems to be willing to work out with LA and Orlando only. If you are a GM and the chance to draft Randle, Smart, or Gordon is there would you risk your job on a teenager that hasn't worked out for you or had the scrutiny the other players have had? 6th spot isn't ideal, it also isn't the end of the world. Let the draft play out before everyone panics.
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Gimme_the_rock
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:11 am    Post subject:

81 wrote:
Last year, perhaps the best rookie, MCW, went 11th, the year before, Lillard went 6th, in 2010, Paul George went 10th. Even if the Lakers stay at six, or lose a spot, odds are there'll be an excellent player available--the scouts need to be spot on.


The fear running rampant, I believe, is based on how hyped the predicted top 3 have been.

But, your point is an excellent one.
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:28 am    Post subject:

Good post OP - not that it's statistically valid on a position-by-position basis but as a whole it does refute the idea that, now that the Lakers are 6th worst, we should expect to pick 6th. We don't know until lottery day what the Laker draft position is going to be.

Add to that the uncertainty around whether or not any given draft choice is going to be a star, a dud, or a solid role player, and I think it's a big stretch to think we can expect or not expect a dynasty based on this draft. It's fun to watch, but it doesn't mean squat until we see them play.

I'm more excited about what we do with FA's with cap space than I am about this draft, although I'd love to see this year's pick change my mind over the next few seasons.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:55 am    Post subject:

TheElectronica wrote:
You guys need to stop looking at past drafts.

It's irrelevant to the prospects this year. You can piss and moan about being 6th but it still gives you a shot at a guy like Smart who might have gone #2 last year. Not to mention a guy like Gordon who would have been top 5 most years. This year is overrated in terms of finding a "franchise changing" player like Davis or Kyrie or Rose from the get go, top 8 is deep and there are multiple guys that have high upsides.

Who knows, maybe someone takes a risk on Vonleh early, or Smart early and Exum falls.


Anthony Bennet #1. Whoa.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:21 am    Post subject:

It's a lottery. Anything can happen. Whatever spot we pick, we'll probably end up with a quality player or maybe, just maybe mitch and Co. Will have an ace up their sleeve.
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Voices
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:01 pm    Post subject: Re: NBA Draft Lottery history: When the worst has won

LOSTON CEPTICS wrote:
I wanted to shed some light on the draft and our chances. Not all is lost. Good reed.

The biggest surprises of the lottery

The biggest leap to the No. 1 pick was in 1993. After picking O'Neal the year before, the Magic won the lottery despite having the 11th-best odds. They used the selection on Webber and immediately traded the forward to the Golden State Warriors for Penny Hardaway, who became a four-time All-Star for Orlando.

In 1990, the second overall pick went to the Seattle SuperSonics despite them having the 10th-worst record. The Sonics took the opportunity to nab point guard Gary Payton, who was recently inducted into the Hall of Fame.

And the best steal for the No. 3 pick was in 1999, when the Charlotte Hornets and their 13th-worst record jumped up the selection board to grab Baron Davis.

The history of the lottery

The worst team has won the NBA Draft Lottery three times in 23 tries.
The third-worst and fifth-worst teams have won the lottery the most times (five) in the lottery era. The Cavaliers select third and the Pelicans pick fifth this year.
The team with the least likely odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery was the 1993 Orlando Magic, who had the 11th-best chance to win. The seventh-, eighth- and ninth-worst teams have all won the lottery once since 1990.
Team by record # of wins (since 1990)
Worst 3
2nd-worst 4
3rd-worst 5
4th-worst 0
5th-worst 5
6th-worst 2
7th-worst 1
8th-worst 1
9th-worst 1
10th-worst 0
11th-worst 1
12th-worst 0
13th-worst 0
14th-worst 0

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/21/4348616/nba-draft-lottery-history-derrick-rose-lebron-james

That took a little time to gather and post, thanks.
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zoogz
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:08 pm    Post subject:

Gimme_the_rock wrote:
81 wrote:
Last year, perhaps the best rookie, MCW, went 11th, the year before, Lillard went 6th, in 2010, Paul George went 10th. Even if the Lakers stay at six, or lose a spot, odds are there'll be an excellent player available--the scouts need to be spot on.


The fear running rampant, I believe, is based on how hyped the predicted top 3 have been.

But, your point is an excellent one.


Exactly, Mitch is more than capable of extracting value given his draft position in most years, now we actually get a top 6-7 pick.
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