Joined: 18 Jul 2001 Posts: 10015 Location: Los Angeles/ Alhambra, CA
Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:22 am Post subject:
J.C. Smith wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
The no-college and 1-and-done Impact players typically show who they are by age 21 if they get playing time.
Player progression is in relation to their development. Randle is more in the Bynum mold of players who have huge upside but who came into the league with serious holes in their game. There's other guys who are just NBA ready from day 1. Randle's progression though from year 1 to 2 was huge. His three point shooting was similar though it was better to close the season and his rebounding dropped somewhat but was still good. His points increased by more than 2 points a game though, his field goal percentage by nearly 6%, his finishing improved, his mid-range shooting improved by leaps and bounds, his defense improved, his passing showed huge improvements doubling up on his assists, he also showed improvement as a screen setter, and late in the season his shot blocking showed significant improvements. It looks like he is at least putting in the same level of work this Summer, though his focus seems to be more on conditioning and shooting than it was last season, so I'd expect a similar level of progression. I'd expect nothing less than a 15/10/3 season from him this year. And I'd give him a good chance of being an 18/11/4 guy at 23.
So let's take a look at some of the All-Stars and see where they were at 22 and then 23. I just went through the last five all-star games to get these. Hopefully you can put that silly argument to rest, but I'm sure you'll find another one.
- Paul George at 22 (in season 3) had big leaps numbers wise (+5.3 points, +2 rebounds, +1.7 assists) largely due to seeing his minutes go from 29.7 to 37.6. But he broke out and became a star at 23 (in year 4) when he jumped to 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 steals. This last season (at 26) was the first time he had ever shot above 42.4% since he took on a larger role in year 3 through.
- Russell Westbrook also made a huge leap in his third season (at age 22) when he increased his scoring by 5.8 per game and his field goal percentage rose from a 41.8% chucker who was hitting 22% of his threes to a respectable 44.2% shooter who was hitting 33% of his threes. He'd say at a similar level until he was 26 when he averaged 28.1/8.6/7.3/2.1 and last season of course he averaged a triple double after Durant's departure at age 28.
- Kevin Love's breakout came in his third season at age 22. He gained +6.2 points, +4.2 rebounds that season. He'd have another 5.8 point leap in points the following season at age 23, though that was sort of the pinnacle for him.
- Alridge's big leap came in year 2 (age 22) when he went from a 9/5 player to a 17.8/7.6 one. He'd then hover at that same level for the next three years until making another leap at age 25 going to a 21.8/8.8 player, and peaking at age 28 at 23.2/11.1.
- Steve Nash was a 22 year old rookie who never averaged more than 8.6 points or 5.5 assists until the age of 26 when he averaged 15.6/7.3 in Dallas. At 27 seemed to peak at 17.9/7.7 and then shocked everyone when he became a superstar in Phoenix. The pinnacle for him came at age 31 when he averaged 18.8/10.5 on 51/44/92.
- Ben Wallace was a 22 year old rookie, and didn't look like an NBA player in Washington. His break out came at age 26 when he became a 6.4/13.2/2.3 player, a leap of +1.6 points, +5 rebounds, and +0.7 blocks. He'd peak two years later (at age 28) as a 6.9 point, 15.4 rebound, and 3.2 block and would be a 4 time all-star and 4 time DPOY.
- Igoudala broke out in his third season at age 23 seeing his points increase by +5.9 and his assists by +2.6. He'd be a 19.9 point and more efficient player the following season at age 24.
- D-Wade broke out at age 23 (his second season) when he saw a jump of +7.9 points, +2.3 assists, +1.2 rebounds, +0.2 steals, +0.5 blocks, and +1.3% shooting. He'd peak at age 27 at 30/7.5/5/2/.2/1.3 on 49.1% shooting.
- Rondo was not good as a rookie, saw a +4.2 point, +1.3, +0.5 and +7.6% leap in year 2 at age 21 to be a 10.6/5.1/4.2 player. By year 3 (age 22) he was an 11.9/8.2/5.2 player on 50.5% shooting. By year 4 (age 24) he was 13.7/9.8/4.4/2.3. He peaked at 13.7/11.1/5.6 at age 26.
- Roy Hibbert was a 22 year old rookie who averaged 7.1/3.5/1.1. By year 3 (age 24) he was up to 12.7/7.5/1.8, and at 25 he was up to 12.8/8.8/2. His points and rebounds stopped from there though he would average 2.6 blocks and 2.2 blocks in the next two seasons before hitting his unexpected decline.
- Deng's breakout came in his third season at what they say is 21 but some might dispute. He saw a leap of +3.9 points, +0.5 rebounds, +0-.6 assists, +0.3 steals, and +4.3% shooting that season and became the deal breaker in a Kobe Bryant trade. That was unfortunately his peak.
- James Harden's first breakout came in his third season going from an inefficient 12.2/3.1/2.6 player to a more efficient (+5.5% fg) 16.8/4.1/3.7 player. He's of course have his superstar break out in year 4 (age 23) after being handed the keys in Houston when he saw a +9.1 point, +2.1 assist, +0.8 rebound leap. He peaked last year at age 27 at 29/11/8/1.5.
- David Lee was a 22 year old rookie who averaged 5.1/4.5. He broke out in year 4 at age 25 leaping to a 16/11.7/2.1/1 player, and by the following season (age 26) he averaged 20.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1 steal and was an All-Star.
- Zach Randolph's break out came in his third season at age 22 going from an 8.4/4.5 player to a 20.1/10.5 one. He's peak at age 25 as a 23.6/10.1/2.2 player.
- Tyson Chandler started to show some encouraging signs in his fourth year at age 22 when he began averaging 8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.8 blocks. It was his sixth season (age age 24) when he started to get serious recognition jumping to a 9.5/12.4/1.8 player on 62.4% shooting. He'd later become an All-Star and DPOY though never putting up exciting stats.
- Joakim Noah's break out came in year 3 at age 24 when he went from a 6.7/7.6/1.3/1.4 player to a 10.7/11/2.1/1.6 one.
- Jrue Holiday's leap came in his fourth season (age 22) when he went from a 13.5/4.5/3.3 player to a 17.7/8/4.2 one.
- Paul Millsap showed a big jump in year 3 at age 23 going from an 8.1/5.6/3.6/1 50.4% shooter to a 13.5/8.6/1.8/1 53.4% one. By year 6 (age 26) he was a 16.6/8.8/2.5/1.8 player.
- Joe Johnson's first breakout came in year 3 at age 22 going from a 9.8/3.2/2.5 on 39.7% shooting player to a 16.7/4.7/4.4 on 43% one. By year 6 (age 25) he was scoring 25 a night on 47% shooting.
- Klay Thompson showed steady improvement from a 21 year old rookie until now. At age 22 he was a 16.6/3.7/3.3 player on 42.2/40.1% shooting. Two years later at the age of 24 he was a 21.7/3.2/2.9 player on 46.3/43.9% shooting.
- Kyle Lowry had never averaged more than 9.1 points or 4.5 assists and never shot better than 43.2% in his first 4 seasons. He too his first leap at age 24 in year 5 becoming a 13.5/6.7 player. He peaked last year at age 30 as a 22.4/7/4.8 player on 46.4% shooting and 41.2% three point shooting.
- Jeff Teague looked like a total flop in his first two years, never averaging more than 5.2 points, 2 assists, or 43.8% shooting. He had a big leap at age 23 in his third season going to 12.6/4.9 on 47.6% shooting. By 2015 he was an All-Star averaging 15.9/7.
- Jimmy Butler's first leap came in year 3 as a 24 year old when he went from an 8.6/4 player to a 13.1/4.9 one albeit on an inefficient 39.7% shooting. By the following year (age 25) he was a 20/5.8/3.3 player on 46.2% shooting. Last season (age 27) he was a 23.9/6.2/5.5 on 45.5% player.
- Kawhii Leonard never averaged more than 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, or 2 assists until his fourth season at the age of 23. He then took a leap to become a 16.5/7.2/2.5/2.3 player. Last year (age 25) he was averaging 25.5/5.8/3.5.
- Draymond Green never averaged more than 6.2 points, 5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks, and never shot more than 40.7% until he was in his third season (at age 24) when he took a big leap to 11.7/8.2/3.7/1.6/1.3 on 44.3% shooting. The following year he averaged 14/9.5/7.4/1.5/1.4 on 49% shooting and saw his three point shooting leap to 38.8% from what was previously a 33.7% best.
- Isiah Thomas broke out in his third season at age 24 with a +6.4 point, +1.5% fg, +2.3 assist leap. He peaked last season at age 27 at 28.9 points (46.3% fg) and 5.9 assists being Boston's go to guy.
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 33474 Location: Long Beach, California
Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:01 pm Post subject:
J.C. Smith wrote:
These guys all broke out in year 3 or later: Paul George, Kevin Love, Steve Nash, Ben Wallace, Andre Igoudala, Rajon Rondo, Roy Hibbert, Loul Deng, James Harden, Zach Randolph, Tyson Chandler, Joakim Noah, Jrue Holiday, Paul Millsap, Joe Johnson, Kyle Lowry, Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Kawhii Leonard, Draymond Gren, or Isiah Thomas?
Averages after year 2 of guys you claim had already shown they were ready for primetime:
Rondo: 10.6/5.1/4.2 in year 2 in 29.9 minutes.
George: 12.1/5.6/2.4 in 29.7 minutes.
Butler: 8.6/4/1.4 in 26 minutes
Love: 14/11/2.3 in 28.6 minutes.
Randle by comparison last year: 13.2/8.6/3.6 in 28.8 minutes.
I appreciate you fighting the good fight J.C. Unfortunately, objectivity is not the nature of being a sports fan for most. That's fine, of course, people have the right to like who they like, but when its a player you are rooting for and when those criticisms rely on a false narrative, its often hard to tolerate it.
I think there are legitimate criticisms to lay on Randle, such as defense and 3pt shooting. However, I do not think its reasonable to effectively state that Randle is a bust or is a good as gone when he demonstrated significant improvement in key areas last year (so much so that certain criticisms have disappeared altogether but for the most stubborn Randle critics) and, at the least, he also looks to be working his tail off this summer in a way no other Laker can match. In light of the above, it is especially frustrating when one sees criticisms of Randle which rely on antiquated negative stereotypes based on his rookie season that clearly no longer hold true.
Anyway, I think there is every reason to be optimistic about Randle, especially since he appears to be a perfect compliment for Ball as a player who prefers a full court, fast paced game. Can't wait to see those two running the break together. _________________ LakersGround's Terms of Service
For me I just don't see Randle's ceiling being as high as Ingram or Ball. That's why there isn't any excitement for me. He has physical limitations that give me doubts about his in-game impact even IF he actually does become a more polished basketball player. He needs to become incredibly fundamentally sound in order to reach his full potential, and I just don't see that happening because he plays like a guy who started playing basketball later in life.
He's a good rebounder but he doesn't bring 1 elite skill to the table. Not a great finisher, even though he improved in that area. Not a great shooter, not a great defender. He's just sort of okay at a lot of different things and poor at the most important parts of today's NBA. I'd rather trade him now, because it's going to be much harder moving him later when he's on a contract that he'll never live up to.
I think we're all excited about Julius Year 3.
Right fam?
It's definetely excitement ---- even if there's strong hints of skepticism , there's still the understanding that he's a good prospect who is improving and could take a leap. It's not pure pessimism , it's really just measured excitement
I see a lot of raw numbers on Randle like points/rebounds/assists. Does anyone have a break down of the advanced stats like RPM/BPM/win shares/Plus minus and things like that?
Who's the better prospect? Thing is with guys so young you have to rely more on watching them play and guessing based on that more so than on their raw stats. Simply saying if a 22 year old player gets X/Y/Z hes a keeper is not the best approach in my opinion.
Tyreke Evans averaged 20.1/5.3/5.8 his rookie season. Where is he now? Has he ever been a difference maker on a team? Most would argue no. This is in response to the list of players being compared to Randle in his second year. Its more complicated than just those raw stats.
I think we're all excited about Julius Year 3.
Right fam?
Hey, for the sake of the team, I'd LOVE for Randle to become a quality starter for the Lakers - even if it's just to give us a tradable asset. I just don't see it happening. I will, however, come back and give mad props if I'm wrong. _________________ On Lakersground, a concern troll is someone who is a fan of another team, but pretends to be a Lakers fan with "concerns".
this play illustrates the most frustrating part of Randle's poor defense:
Hopefully the stamina theory behind his poor defense is correct, and fixable. With more awareness, he should technically be an elite defender.
and then he played literally the worst defense in the history of the NBA that season
So most of that video is about lack of condition, effort and energy. Hopefully 10-pack Julius will have better conditioning, give better effort and display energy for at least 30 mins a game. What say ye?
this play illustrates the most frustrating part of Randle's poor defense:
Hopefully the stamina theory behind his poor defense is correct, and fixable. With more awareness, he should technically be an elite defender.
and then he played literally the worst defense in the history of the NBA that season
So most of that video is about lack of condition, effort and energy. Hopefully 10-pack Julius will have better conditioning, give better effort and display energy for at least 30 mins a game. What say ye?
If he can't do it for 30 minutes then play him 20 minutes. Seriously, this conditioning thing doesn't make sense to me. It shouldn't take multiple seasons to get in shape. Basketball players play themselves into game shape. Playing the game itself is exercise that should improve conditioning. There's something not right about this.
Last edited by dao on Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
this play illustrates the most frustrating part of Randle's poor defense:
Hopefully the stamina theory behind his poor defense is correct, and fixable. With more awareness, he should technically be an elite defender.
and then he played literally the worst defense in the history of the NBA that season
So most of that video is about lack of condition, effort and energy. Hopefully 10-pack Julius will have better conditioning, give better effort and display energy for at least 30 mins a game. What say ye?
Whole lotta ifs, the same ifs we had last season. Lets hope this is the season we don't have to point out effort and conditioning issues.
this play illustrates the most frustrating part of Randle's poor defense:
Hopefully the stamina theory behind his poor defense is correct, and fixable. With more awareness, he should technically be an elite defender.
and then he played literally the worst defense in the history of the NBA that season
So most of that video is about lack of condition, effort and energy. Hopefully 10-pack Julius will have better conditioning, give better effort and display energy for at least 30 mins a game. What say ye?
If he can't do it for 30 minutes then play him 20 minutes. Seriously, this conditioning thing doesn't make sense to me. It shouldn't take multiple seasons to get in shape. Basketball players play themselves into game shape. Playing the game itself is exercise that should improve conditioning. There's something not right about this.
Diet + build imo
He came into the NBA with a lot of muscle like a football player. big muscles = quick fatigue. He prolly also ate very badly
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
He'll def be in the best condition of his life.. It'll be interesting to see just how great that is on the court
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
I dont disagree.
However, last year, that meant more of Moz|Zubac|Nance|Deng|Black|Robinson in some combination of Julius' minutes at the 4 or 5. Although lacking energy, effort or whatever we wanna call it, the fact that the other guys couldn't take Randle's minutes also says something.
I'm interested to see if Kuz can crack into someone's minutes.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
Hell ya, that is the common sense solution that I'm for.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
Hell ya, that is the common sense solution that I'm for.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
I dont disagree.
However, last year, that meant more of Moz|Zubac|Nance|Deng|Black|Robinson in some combination of Julius' minutes at the 4 or 5. Although lacking energy, effort or whatever we wanna call it, the fact that the other guys couldn't take Randle's minutes also says something.
I'm interested to see if Kuz can crack into someone's minutes.
Couldn't, or weren't given the opportunity? We've beaten the Nance/Randle discussion into the ground but the advanced stats favored Nance over Randle. Randle sucking wind with his hands on his hips, playing half assed defense and giving no effort off ball, shouldn't be getting minutes over a fresh Nance. That's on Luke to, who has yet to give us much hope in his coaching ability, but that's another story altogether.
A lot of 18-19 year old's I watch in college don't have a great gas tank, Fultz, Dennis Smith, Exum, etc. But Julius was at the bottom of that tier(maybe for the reason that PickNPop stated --- it's believed to be true in combat sports)
His conditioning improved last year --- it should improve again. But to think it's going to improve to the level where he can be a legit energy 2way player, IMO that's too far of a jump.
Each Pack adds an extra energy bar.
And since he has 10 of em...
I'm also hoping PNP is right about the bulky weight.
How much weight has he lost? Simple physics would suggest that carrying less mass would require less energy expenditure. If he can't play with high energy for 30 minutes, then he shouldn't play 30 minutes. Simple as that.
Hell ya, that is the common sense solution that I'm for.
Sigh. That's what was bugging me about this whole situation. It makes no sense that a player needs multiple seasons to get in shape. So he was supposedly down to 245 some time in the past, the same weight he is now...and we're supposed to be optimistic...meh, let's just see what happens. I'm sick and tired about hearing his conditioning being used as an excuse though. It's time to put up or shut up.
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He'll def be in the best condition of his life.. It'll be interesting to see just how great that is on the court
