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LakerSanity
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 Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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He one quarter of a game, not half his games. He has also improved each and every year, so, even ignoring his preseason and the ridiculous shape he came into, it is a very fair assumption to make he will make similar jumps this year. Finally, we were told that players would earn their starts based on preseason play. Nance has been poor, Randle has been great. That's not debatable.
The team looked bad because it was the first two preseason games and we were playing a team in the Wolves that may be top 4 in the west and a team in the Nuggets with amazing 3pt shooting. You cannot compare the Kings, the Hayward-less Jazz or the Clippers (rest all of their starters) with those first two teams.
I respect Mike's arguments though... at least those come from an objective perspective. Can't say the same for those coming from others.
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Roon
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Lucky_Shot wrote: | LS you're are making a lot assumptions after one short preseason where he missed half of his games with an injury vs 2 years of putting up by far better advanced stats.
Now Randle had a decent preseason but he didnt look great and in one game looked awful.
Getting Deng minutes isnt a bad idea but I would take minutes from JR to make it happen. |
Yeah it was a short preseason, but he looked like one if not our best player. The thing with Randle as well, is that he has a track record of improving. It hasn't been rapid, but he's steadily improved over the past few years, and so far he's shown improvement in preseason. My biggest problem with Nance starting over Randle, because I do agree it makes Nance more effective, is that idea that Randle can't learn to play effectively with the starters. I don't we should necessarily put it past him to learn how to play in a way that compliments Ball's and Lopez's game.
It's also not a mirage that physically he has an advantage out there.
Either way though, I would like to see how he responds. While I think he should start now, and deserves to start, if he isn't able to force his way back into the starting rotation, than he just isn't the player he needs to be.
And LS, just an fyi. Putting Nance with the starters, who he will look better next to, might just raise his value as well. |
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LakerSanity
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. Same goes for Deng, who's contract we need to get rid of, which is one of the reasons (aside from potential on the floor impact), I'd rather give 10-15 minutes to Deng than Nance.
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ocho
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | ^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. Same goes for Deng, who's contract we need to get rid of, which is one of the reasons (aside from potential on the floor impact), I'd rather give 10-15 minutes to Deng than Nance. |
I think that decision has been made.
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Roon
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | A few preseason games takes precedence over 2 years of season play? Come on...
Not to mention the team looked really bad until Nance was inserted into the starting line up. Could be brook, could be both, could be that we played crappy teams. Anyway, the main idea is a few preseason games are no where near enough to be making all these claims. Kinda like when everyone was proclaiming he was so improved at shooting before he played at all. |
I'd say in a vacuum, if you asked anyone how to make your team look better, by either replacing Nance/Bryant/Zubac at starting center with Brook Lopez, playing much worse teams, or replacing JR with NJ; I would say the majority would choose one of the first two options. |
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HumanVictoryCigar
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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I find it interesting that people are assuming Nance is only going to play about 15 minutes/game.
In preseason, Brook Lopez played about 14 minutes in his first game, Nance played 18
second game, about 21, Nance played about 18 minutes
third game, about 19 minutes, Nance played 20 minutes
If Brook Lopez is playing 30 minutes/game, Nance should be getting probably closer to 25 minutes if Luke prefers to keep them together. This is why I found Luke's comments about giving Bogut some minutes so interesting. There's no reason for Luke to bench Zu and the Clippers have good size so all 3 Centers could play, Lopez, then Zu and then Bogut with Julius at C for a shorter period of time for smallball. Julius is finding compression for playing time at both PF and now at C as we now have viable options at C, Zu is a year older and Bogut can probably play what? 5-6 minute stretches? That's not even getting into Kuz and Deng possibly playing well and pushing for minutes. |
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LandsbergerRules
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:14 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | ^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. Same goes for Deng, who's contract we need to get rid of, which is one of the reasons (aside from potential on the floor impact), I'd rather give 10-15 minutes to Deng than Nance. |
Agreed.
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MJST
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | MJST wrote: |
There is absolutely nothing that Larry did to actually earn or take the starting position from Julius and he's fully within his right to feel some kind of way about it . |
Who knows? Everyone has talked about how Julius is playing better this preseason because he's been playing angry. Maybe Luke wants to keep him angry. |
Julius was playing that was before Luke pissed him off. That's why he got pissed off.
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Practice
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | | LakerSanity wrote: | | ^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. Same goes for Deng, who's contract we need to get rid of, which is one of the reasons (aside from potential on the floor impact), I'd rather give 10-15 minutes to Deng than Nance. |
I think that decision has been made. |
Yup. |
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pio2u
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | They like Julius in any role he's in but they love the idea of him being able to dominate against second units."
- @ramonashelburne |
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governator
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| pio2u wrote: | | Quote: | They like Julius in any role he's in but they love the idea of him being able to dominate against second units."
- @ramonashelburne |
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Sounds kinda backhanded compliment... u being demoted son |
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Fortysixn2
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| governator wrote: | | pio2u wrote: | | Quote: | They like Julius in any role he's in but they love the idea of him being able to dominate against second units."
- @ramonashelburne |
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Sounds kinda backhanded compliment... u being demoted son |
I love the idea of being able to beat up 12 year olds, because it's easier...doesn't make me a tough guy.
I don't think Julius is really NBA starter material, but he's better than Deng...neither of them interests me as much as Kuzma. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | A few preseason games takes precedence over 2 years of season play? Come on...
Not to mention the team looked really bad until Nance was inserted into the starting line up. Could be brook, could be both, could be that we played crappy teams. Anyway, the main idea is a few preseason games are no where near enough to be making all these claims. Kinda like when everyone was proclaiming he was so improved at shooting before he played at all. |
Yes, what happens currently should take precedence over the past. Unless, of course, you believe that young players can never improve. He has while Nance has taken a step back.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:44 pm Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | | LakerSanity wrote: | | ^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. Same goes for Deng, who's contract we need to get rid of, which is one of the reasons (aside from potential on the floor impact), I'd rather give 10-15 minutes to Deng than Nance. |
I think that decision has been made. |
If it has then our FO is more clueless than I thought.
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MJST
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | Mike, In think a lot of what you've posted is based on assumptions and/or ignores what we've seen this preseason (relying on last year's play instead)....
| Mike@LG wrote: | Reasons to start Nance
1. Nance will only play 10-15mpg. |
I'd rather give those minutes to Deng behind Randle and Kuzma. I think Deng offers more benefit than Nance right now and playing him some offers the potential of increasing his trade value.
| Quote: | | 2. Nance plays best next to ball-dominant players, perimeter and paint. It allows him to do what he does best with off-ball stuff on both ends of the floor. In this case, Lopez. |
This may be true. However, going by the preseason, it hasn't been. Nance hasn't played well this preseason next to anyone.
| Quote: | | 3. It's possible that Nance fits better with Zo than Randle because Randle wasn't green-lit to push the ball anyway and he's the better rim runner. |
This is speculation. I can't say you are wrong, but can't say you are right. It's appeared, by my eyes though, that Randle has improved his transition game during the preseason and looked great next to Caruso (who is Zo light). I also read some numbers from Cranjis that should, even with his more limited responsibilities handling the ball in the full court this preseason, Randle has outperformed Nance in transition.
| Quote: | | 4. Nance has twice the deflection rate of any other frontline Laker player in 6 less minutes than Randle. Perimeter defense. |
Was that true for this preseason? I would guess not. I'm going with the assumption here that Randle has transformed himself defensively based on his preseason defense. I would venture to guess that Randle will be even better as a defensive rebounder as compared to Nance this year, and we haven't talked about weakside rim protection either (which, surprisingly, Nance seems to not offer at all).
| Quote: | | 5. Neither Nance nor Randle are great 1 on 1 w perimeter switches, but it's ball-denial, bumping cutters, denying position, stunting, shading passing lanes to shooters, screening, and weakside help from the 4 slot (not the 5) that Nance provides consistently over Randle. |
Last year? Sure. However, again, going by this preseason, I completely disagree.
| Quote: | | 6. Nance moves the ball, even as a non-threat because he defers to a teammate and goes automatically to screen. This helps ensure that Lopez gets the touches. |
Yes, but it comes at a the sacrifice, for the most part, of playing 4 on 5 on offense. Nance isn't a threat and takes it to too much of an extreme. He also isn't aggressive off the ball (cutting) and doesn't have the offensive rebounding/put back talents to make up for his lack of scoring ability. It would be another thing if he could spot up from 3 and hit those as well, but he didn't take more than a single 3 (IIRC) in the preseason.
| Quote: | | 7. Neither Nance nor Randle provide any perimeter gravity to the 3pt line, so off-ball play is that much more important. |
Randle, as limited as it may be, has shown more of a desire to shoot the 3 than Nance. I'd give him that chance. And, again, we have to take into account the preseason, where Randle outperformed Nance as a cutter. This makes no mention of offensive rebounding and put backs.
| Quote: | | 8. Randle looked like a different player taking advantage of 2nd units playing backup C, where he could bullyball and get away with it, was already in the paint to swat, and didn't have to defer to teammates for scoring. |
Randle looked like a different player against everyone. Just because he came off the bench doesn't mean he wasn't matched up with starters. He played against everyone and looked equally impressive on D against everyone, no matter where he was IMO.
| Quote: | | 9. Nance is only down 2% in rebounding percentage compared to Randle based off last season. |
Mentioned this above, but I believe Randle, with his improved conditioning, will create more distance between him and Nance when it comes to rebounding this season. Clearly, based off his 2016 season, Randle showed himself to be a more dominant rebounder. He then dipped a bit last season. I think his rebounding rate is going to improve even more this season. Again, the preseason has also been a reflection of that if you compare Randle's rebound rate to Nance's.
| Quote: | | 10. This helps BOTH players look good, with Nance being an intangibles/off-ball player and Randle killing 2nd units next to Kuzma. If Randle starts, it's JC and Kuzma relied upon for scoring punch, and that's insufficient. |
It all depends on matchups. This argument only holds water if you think of rotations as hockey shifts, whole sale lineup changes. If you mix and match as needed, especially with Ball playing heavy minutes, offense shouldn't be a problem. Even when Randle was starting last year and this preseason, the bench outperformed the starters offensively anyway. I don't think this argument holds any water. Its just one made by Luke that sounds good to rationalize a potentially bad decision.
| Quote: | | 11. Randle is going to get his numbers and minutes anyway, and most likely finish games. But doing this doesn't throw LNJ's talent/abilities to the gutter by sitting him altogether. |
I would rather give his minutes to Deng, Randle and Kuzma. The emergence of Kuzma changed the equation for me.
| Quote: | | 12. We're not a playoff team. Does it matter that much? |
Yes, especially because we aren't a playoff team. We need to develop the players who are most important to our potential future and do things which help us make decisions next summer. That means playing Randle a bunch, seeing if he develops even more and, hopefully, watching him turn himself into a player we either can't afford to let go or one who is in high trade demand so that we don't have to lose him for nothing next summer.
| Quote: | | 13. If Randle wants to start, personally I think there needs to be 3 specific changes. Slow down, read the floor, be decisive, provide weakside help from the 4 slot, and don't hesitate on those 3s like he did the past 2 games. |
I disagree. You ask Randle to fit the team, not the other way around. If he cannot do that, its never too late to start giving Nance minutes later. You don't enable Randle's bad habits, you develop him into good habits and, if you find he can't adjust, then you have your answer regarding his future. Remember, we're not necessarily trying to win right now, we're trying to develop players and determine whether a player like Randle is a part of our future. |
Agree with all this.
And people going "Since when does pre-season matter over a season of advanced stats!?"
Well pre-season is what this decision is based upon, because Randle started pre-season as the rightful starter, and despite outplaying Larry in every way during it, Larry got the start, not based upon what he did two seasons ago. If Luke IS trying to base it upon what he did two seasons ago than Nance would have started from the get go.
It's essentially what you said at this point
| Quote: | | I don't think this argument holds any water. Its just one made by Luke that sounds good to rationalize a potentially bad decision. |
This in a nutshell can be used with any Walton coaching decision he makes.
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PICKnPOP
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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Been begging for nance to start since he got here...it's about time imo, and Even though I don't think randle is a lost cause, it looks like his time in Los Angeles is just about up. Lonzo is the perfect point guard for a player like nance and I wouldn't judge his play as a starter until we get to watch them together.
PS... I think Walton wants 2 starting lineups. So even though randle getting benched is a demotion, it's not as bad as people think. Let's see who ends games |
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dao
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | A few preseason games takes precedence over 2 years of season play? Come on...
Not to mention the team looked really bad until Nance was inserted into the starting line up. Could be brook, could be both, could be that we played crappy teams. Anyway, the main idea is a few preseason games are no where near enough to be making all these claims. Kinda like when everyone was proclaiming he was so improved at shooting before he played at all. |
agreed. Nance had pretty darn good advanced stats last year, despite his offensive limitations. He is an extremely underrated player. I believe that LS suggests that we should basically leave Nance out of the rotation, and play Deng/Kuzma behind Randle. Nance had the second best BPM and RPM on the team last year, behind Lou. He's a solid role player.
Randle certainly seems to have made some significant strides this offseason, and it is possible that he is now a better player than Nance. If that is the case, then Randle will play himself right back into the starting lineup soon.
People keep talking about how Randle has earned the starting job based on preseason. Well if we base it last year's regular season, then it is actually Nance that earned the starting job. He was a more effective player than Randle by most advanced metrics. I don't think we should place much value in preseason performance. Randle's preseason was encouraging and Nance's was lackluster, but that doesn't erase last season. We also don't have access to their performance in practice.
Again, if Randle outplays Nance, then he will be the starter soon. Randle looked good enough in preseason that I probably would have given him the benefit of the doubt and started him over Nance. But I don't have a problem with him starting off as sixth man with a very, very large chip on his shoulder. |
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Roon
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:05 pm Post subject: |
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| dao wrote: | | defense wrote: | A few preseason games takes precedence over 2 years of season play? Come on...
Not to mention the team looked really bad until Nance was inserted into the starting line up. Could be brook, could be both, could be that we played crappy teams. Anyway, the main idea is a few preseason games are no where near enough to be making all these claims. Kinda like when everyone was proclaiming he was so improved at shooting before he played at all. |
agreed. Nance had pretty darn good advanced stats last year, despite his offensive limitations. He is an extremely underrated player. I believe that LS suggests that we should basically leave Nance out of the rotation, and play Deng/Kuzma behind Randle. Nance had the second best BPM and RPM on the team last year, behind Lou. He's a solid role player.
Randle certainly seems to have made some significant strides this offseason, and it is possible that he is now a better player than Nance. If that is the case, then Randle will play himself right back into the starting lineup soon.
People keep talking about how Randle has earned the starting job based on preseason. Well if we base it last year's regular season, then it is actually Nance that earned the starting job. He was a more effective player than Randle by most advanced metrics. I don't think we should place much value in preseason performance. Randle's preseason was encouraging and Nance's was lackluster, but that doesn't erase last season. We also don't have access to their performance in practice.
Again, if Randle outplays Nance, then he will be the starter soon. Randle looked good enough in preseason that I probably would have given him the benefit of the doubt and started him over Nance. But I don't have a problem with him starting off as sixth man with a very, very large chip on his shoulder. |
This is what I've accepted. If he's not able to take it back, then he didn't deserve it in the first place.
That's also assumes that if he does play well enough to take it back they actually insert him there.
I have no idea what the rotations are going to look like opening night. |
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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| governator wrote: | | pio2u wrote: | | Quote: | They like Julius in any role he's in but they love the idea of him being able to dominate against second units."
- @ramonashelburne |
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Sounds kinda backhanded compliment... u being demoted son |
Yep. Like Iggy and LO  |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Roon wrote: | | The thing with Randle as well, is that he has a track record of improving. It hasn't been rapid, but he's steadily improved over the past few years |
Randle has only played two seasons. |
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | The thing with Randle as well, is that he has a track record of improving. It hasn't been rapid, but he's steadily improved over the past few years |
Randle has only played two seasons. |
Technically 3. And his improvement from year 1 to year 2 was amazing. Think how great he'll be in year 10. |
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PlantedTanks
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:24 pm Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: |
Agree with all this.
And people going "Since when does pre-season matter over a season of advanced stats!?"
Well pre-season is what this decision is based upon, because Randle started pre-season as the rightful starter, and despite outplaying Larry in every way during it, Larry got the start, not based upon what he did two seasons ago. If Luke IS trying to base it upon what he did two seasons ago than Nance would have started from the get go.
It's essentially what you said at this point
| Quote: | | I don't think this argument holds any water. Its just one made by Luke that sounds good to rationalize a potentially bad decision. |
This in a nutshell can be used with any Walton coaching decision he makes. |
Not sure if I missed something but why is this decision solely based on pre-season? Also imo it is not based upon what Nance did two seasons ago but what he has done for the past 2 seasons.
I have seen enough of James Worthy and the other analysts stress the importance of the Lakers needing to improve their defense and while Randle seems to have made strides this preseason especially in his effort I still believe he is a liability in this respect. He lacks awareness/instincts and his effort has run hot/cold in the past and until he proves he can consistently sustain his effort and improve his court awareness over an extended stretch I prefer Nance be given the opportunity.
I believe the offense will be good enough. You don't need a scorer at every position. It seems most of the very good teams starts a glue guy who doesn't necessarily score but contributes in a number of other ways, especially defense and Nance best fits that description on this Laker team. |
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AC Green's V-Card
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:36 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | ^We don't need to make a decision about Nance right now. We do with Randle. Thus, to the extent we want to raise trade value, we need to prioritize doing so with Randle over Nance. |
We flipped Lou Williams for a 1st rounder because he was an awesome 6th man off the bench. If Randle is average against starting lineups but runs shop against the other team's bench, how does that lower his trade value? |
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Roon
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | The thing with Randle as well, is that he has a track record of improving. It hasn't been rapid, but he's steadily improved over the past few years |
Randle has only played two seasons. |
Whoops, but the point still stands. He's been a better play at the end than at the beginning of both seasons, and he's gotten better the end to the beginning of the next season. |
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Eindhoven
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:41 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | governator wrote: | | pio2u wrote: | | Quote: | They like Julius in any role he's in but they love the idea of him being able to dominate against second units."
- @ramonashelburne |
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Sounds kinda backhanded compliment... u being demoted son |
Yep. Like Iggy and LO |
Iggy and LO wouldn't play against second units for the most of their minutes on court.
Funny thing is everybody remembers great names that came from the bench to justify Julius' demotion, but if someone suggests to bench Ingram, hell breaks loose...
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