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dao
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 Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | dao wrote: | | LakerLogic wrote: | | Draymond has been pretty average this year. Julius has outplayed him. |
really?
Green: +3.89 RPM, +4.2 BPM
Randle: +0.16 RPM, -0.3 BPM
Green is #1 among PF's in RPM. Randle is #29. Green is also having a strong year from three, shooting 35.1%. |
Apples to oranges, IMO. Draymond has a very different role on offense. |
yeah agreed. Randle's offensive numbers would look very different if he were surrounded by Curry/Klay/Durant. He'd rack up a lot of assists, and he'd have the paint all to himself. |
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LakerSanity
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:21 pm Post subject: |
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And RPM is not a useful tool, IMO, when comparing players on two different teams. It can be useful when comparing players on the same team, however.
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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| RCS926 wrote: | | It's amazing to see that Randle has actually become a decent facsimile of Draymond. |
Draymond himself has mentioned the similarities. They both play with that edge but Julius controls it better and doesn’t smack guys in the nuts.
I was driving earlier and one of his commercials came on 710 and I thought it is weird that out of all our young players he is the only one I know of doing radio advertisements.
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GoldenThroat
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| dao wrote: | Randle is going to get a large contract offer from someone this offseason. Kuzma is our starting PF going forward. Cousins seems like the ideal fit at starting center. Is it a smart move to pay Randle, say, 16 million per year to be the third big? Nance makes like 2 million per year. Guys like Zubac/Bryant make peanuts.
Coming into the season, we all knew that Randle would have to show large strides to stick with the team. He has done that. But it's still a very tricky situation, particularly because of the emergence of Kuzma. |
He might though I didn’t think that way before the season. He is doing one thing that teams pay for and that is contributing to wins. It’s a shame that the Lakers pissed away the last two of his seasons tanking.
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | dao wrote: | | LakerLogic wrote: | | Draymond has been pretty average this year. Julius has outplayed him. |
really?
Green: +3.89 RPM, +4.2 BPM
Randle: +0.16 RPM, -0.3 BPM
Green is #1 among PF's in RPM. Randle is #29. Green is also having a strong year from three, shooting 35.1%. |
Apples to oranges, IMO. Draymond has a very different role on offense. |
If it's apples to oranges, why compare them in the first place then? 
Is it only apples to oranges when we see how special Green is?
No knock on Randle, he's doing his thing in his own right. But I was pretty shocked when someone mentioned Randle might be a better player than Green. |
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durden-tyler
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah Green is a perennial DPOY candidate, and he orchestrates a lot of the best offense in the nba. Sure Randle would also take advantage of playing with players like Curry and Klay, but let's be serious, he's not on Greens level (yet I hope)... |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:10 pm Post subject: |
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| durden-tyler wrote: | | Yeah Green is a perennial DPOY candidate, and he orchestrates a lot of the best offense in the nba. Sure Randle would also take advantage of playing with players like Curry and Klay, but let's be serious, he's not on Greens level (yet I hope)... |
Neither was Green at 22. He was nowhere close to Randle’s level.
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:12 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | durden-tyler wrote: | | Yeah Green is a perennial DPOY candidate, and he orchestrates a lot of the best offense in the nba. Sure Randle would also take advantage of playing with players like Curry and Klay, but let's be serious, he's not on Greens level (yet I hope)... |
Neither was Green at 22. He was nowhere close to Randle’s level. |
Great point.
I didnt see much of Green at age 22.
Did he have the bball iq at that point? |
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durden-tyler
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | durden-tyler wrote: | | Yeah Green is a perennial DPOY candidate, and he orchestrates a lot of the best offense in the nba. Sure Randle would also take advantage of playing with players like Curry and Klay, but let's be serious, he's not on Greens level (yet I hope)... |
Neither was Green at 22. He was nowhere close to Randle’s level. |
Sure, but I don't know the future so I have no idea how much Randle will improve, maybe you do ? Anyway I was just talking about posters who said that he was already better... |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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He had the IQ and defense. He was coached well in college.
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AFireInside619
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| durden-tyler wrote: | | Yeah Green is a perennial DPOY candidate, and he orchestrates a lot of the best offense in the nba. Sure Randle would also take advantage of playing with players like Curry and Klay, but let's be serious, he's not on Greens level (yet I hope)... |
For the past few years the league has been looking for the next Draymond. I'm starting to believe there will never be another. It sounds silly because it's not like we're searching for the next Jordan again. But the truth is, the Warriors are not even close to the same team without Draymond. Not on defense. Who else can guard Lebron in his prime like this besides Dray & Iggy? What other power forward can run an offense like Dray? Who can play Small Ball center like Dray? I think the only replacement for Dray would be if Lebron ever decides to be a 4/5 someday. And still he wouldn't be because Lebron doesn't play regular season defense anymore. |
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Roon
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | RCS926 wrote: | | It's amazing to see that Randle has actually become a decent facsimile of Draymond. |
Draymond himself has mentioned the similarities. They both play with that edge but Julius controls it better and doesn’t smack guys in the nuts.
I was driving earlier and one of his commercials came on 710 and I thought it is weird that out of all our young players he is the only one I know of doing radio advertisements. |
He's the only one with a kid to feed? |
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Truck Turner
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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Draymond said years ago that Randle has the potential to be better than him one day. Luke mentioned in the past that Randle could be a Draymond type player.
It's always worth mentioning because people seemingly forget, Julius is only 23 years old. |
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J.C. Smith
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | I didnt see much of Green at age 22.
Did he have the bball iq at that point? |
Green at 22: 2.9 points (32.7% fg, 20.9% 3p), 3.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks in 13.4 minutes
Green at 23: 6.2 points (40.7% fg, 33.3% 3p), 5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks in 21.9 minutes
One of the crazier things about Green is that he wasn't projected to be a good defender in the NBA. That was considered one of his weaknesses. He found a way to make it work, breaking out at 24.
Randle has been well ahead of Green offensively, but his defensive improvements this year have been massive. Huge turnaround. He's so quick and has quick hands and feet, and with his conditioning he's been able to surprise contest a lot of jump shots. Those things are making up for his lack of length and it seems to me that he is getting it and embracing that role. |
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CRoost
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Truck Turner wrote: | Draymond said years ago that Randle has the potential to be better than him one day. Luke mentioned in the past that Randle could be a Draymond type player.
It's always worth mentioning because people seemingly forget, Julius is only 23 years old. |
Jules plays primarily on instinct but has shown tremendous improvement on the defensive end. I have to wonder when all that experience will finally lead to games slowing down on him, how good can he become. There's definitely an untap potential on Jules. I would to live to see it on a Laker uniform. |
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Lifetime Lakers Guru
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Would love for Randle to stay such a hard working player who really wants to get better. That's the catch-22 with many one and done players. Randle is just in his third year of playing after missing his entire 1st year with that ankle injury. Draymond was a 4 year player in college who was well coached. he got minutes in his first year under Jackson and showed major improvement his 2nd year. he showed leadership and toughness in practices and during games something the warriors lacked back then. but it was that 3rd year with Kerr and his new offense when lee was out with an injury that he exploded and never looked back.
But Randle must develop not into another Green, but into a consistent force every night on the defensive end and offensive end. It's all in front of him.. |
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:29 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | And RPM is not a useful tool, IMO, when comparing players on two different teams. It can be useful when comparing players on the same team, however. |
Exactly. While PER not a great stat, Green is at 16.5. Randle 17.8.
WS for Green 1.7, Randle at 1.1.
TS% 60 for Green and 59 for Randle.
Draymond shoots 10% better from 3. That is the biggest difference imo. |
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Dr. Laker
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | Simply because he's not a starter doesn't mean that later in the game he doesn't play against starters. Again, that's lazy thinking and again correlation (i.e. not being a starter means you only play against bench units) does not mean causation (i.e. that coming off the bench is the actual reason for his success). |
Yawn. We all learned "correlation does not imply causation" in Statistics 101.
What we learned in Statistics 520 is "sometimes correlation can infer causation."
One of the big knocks against Randle was his motor.inability to sustain effort, which was cited as a reason for him taking plays off on both ends of the court. This year, in 8 less minutes, Randle is putting up Per 36 minute highs in nearly every positive category.
Yes, there are multiple factors: different players, Julius knows the system better, he's is in better shape, etc.
But when you look at measurables - Julius' usage rate and fouls/min are much higher than in previous seasons. To me, that infers  :
1 - Julius is expending more energy per minute:
2 - Coming off the bench, Julius is fresher against tired 1st unit players
3 - Julius gets to see the flow of the game before he goes in
4 - Julius can go "balls out" without worrying about foul trouble.
Many players do better coming off the bench - no shame in that. Assuming that Julius' improved play will translate from 21-25 minutes as a reserve to 32-35 milutes as a starter is what doesn't track . . . particularly given the flaws exposed in Julius' previous 133 starts.
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tox
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | | And RPM is not a useful tool, IMO, when comparing players on two different teams. It can be useful when comparing players on the same team, however. |
I disagree. It's a great tool to compare players on two different teams, as far as all-in-one stats go. The key is to keep in mind its limitations.
In particular, there is the issue of previous year priors: RPM uses previous years' RPM values to help calibrate where a player should be. In general, this is good and leads to stable results. But for a player who's made a serious improvement like Julius, it will underrate him as it continues to expect him to regress somewhat to previous years' values. |
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anpherknee
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Joined: 14 Mar 2014
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | LakerSanity wrote: | | And RPM is not a useful tool, IMO, when comparing players on two different teams. It can be useful when comparing players on the same team, however. |
I disagree. It's a great tool to compare players on two different teams, as far as all-in-one stats go. The key is to keep in mind its limitations.
In particular, there is the issue of previous year priors: RPM uses previous years' RPM values to help calibrate where a player should be. In general, this is good and leads to stable results. But for a player who's made a serious improvement like Julius, it will underrate him as it continues to expect him to regress somewhat to previous years' values. |
SPEAK ENGLISH NERD SMH |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| anpherknee wrote: | | tox wrote: | | LakerSanity wrote: | | And RPM is not a useful tool, IMO, when comparing players on two different teams. It can be useful when comparing players on the same team, however. |
I disagree. It's a great tool to compare players on two different teams, as far as all-in-one stats go. The key is to keep in mind its limitations.
In particular, there is the issue of previous year priors: RPM uses previous years' RPM values to help calibrate where a player should be. In general, this is good and leads to stable results. But for a player who's made a serious improvement like Julius, it will underrate him as it continues to expect him to regress somewhat to previous years' values. |
SPEAK ENGLISH NERD SMH |
RPM GUD STAT |
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Sentient Meat
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Joined: 04 Jul 2014
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Dr. Laker wrote: | | LakerSanity wrote: | | Simply because he's not a starter doesn't mean that later in the game he doesn't play against starters. Again, that's lazy thinking and again correlation (i.e. not being a starter means you only play against bench units) does not mean causation (i.e. that coming off the bench is the actual reason for his success). |
Yawn. We all learned "correlation does not imply causation" in Statistics 101.
What we learned in Statistics 520 is "sometimes correlation can infer causation."
One of the big knocks against Randle was his motor.inability to sustain effort, which was cited as a reason for him taking plays off on both ends of the court. This year, in 8 less minutes, Randle is putting up Per 36 minute highs in nearly every positive category.
Yes, there are multiple factors: different players, Julius knows the system better, he's is in better shape, etc.
But when you look at measurables - Julius' usage rate and fouls/min are much higher than in previous seasons. To me, that infers :
1 - Julius is expending more energy per minute:
2 - Coming off the bench, Julius is fresher against tired 1st unit players
3 - Julius gets to see the flow of the game before he goes in
4 - Julius can go "balls out" without worrying about foul trouble.
Many players do better coming off the bench - no shame in that. Assuming that Julius' improved play will translate from 21-25 minutes as a reserve to 32-35 milutes as a starter is what doesn't track . . . particularly given the flaws exposed in Julius' previous 133 starts. |
Randle is the basketball equivalent of Kenta Maeda... a talented but flawed player who is amazing in short bursts where he can go all out but less effective over a longer period of time. He is worth sixth man money or maybe low level starter but not a max imo. He's young so it's possible he raises his game to the next level but projecting him as a Draymond clone is risky business. I would say the same thing about both Ball or Ingram in two years if they still made rookie errors and didn't show the quantum growth that Ingram has displayed this year.
IF we strike out on Cousins, PG-13, James, and Klay... yes we should sign him. But if we have the inside track, I'd go for two of those four. Heck I'd go for Blake or DeAndre before Julius if offered in trade. |
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RI Laker
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Great post. |
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epak
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| Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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Maeda only handled righties as a bull pen guy.
Julius handles lefties, righties, power hitters, hight ops guys, speedsters out of the pen. |
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