The JULIUS RANDLE Thread
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AFireInside619
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:09 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Jr fighting to stay in la


The true "Fight For LA" slogan. Not the Chargers.
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AFireInside619
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:13 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
MJST wrote:
Laker's Fan wrote:
Luke is playing Randle primarily at Center, so he's playing behind Lopez. He's been playing Nance in front of Kuzma. Where people got irritated with Luke is when he started giving Bogut minutes that could have gone to Randle. That was about Randle not bringng it


Randle's been "bringing it" since pre-season. That's no longer valid reasoning.

The honest truth is, Luke has no valid reasoning. The stats don't back it up, and Nance's play in comparison to Randle's and Kuzma's don't back it up. Which is why Luke uses the excuse "well it's not about the best player starting." now.


All this preseason talk.
Did he bring it?

https://stats.nba.com/player/203944/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Pre Season

And scroll down to the starter/bench stats. Very intriguing imo.


Hmm, someone in the Lakers front office/Coaching staff saw something. If I'm reading the starter/bench stats correctly Randle is an animal off the bench (as back up center) and not so impressive as a starter.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:21 pm    Post subject:

^You guys should look at the lineups we played in the preseason. We started Randle next to Nance and Zubac (remember, Kuzma came off the bench and Lopez was out). You don't play Randle next to another front court player who can't shoot.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:21 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
RoyalPurple8 wrote:
Core players I dont want to let go:
Lonzo
Ingram
Randle
Kuzma

I think everyone else is on the table for a trade imo.


But in the right deal I would trade any of them. We have no untradable or franchise players.


Perhaps? Would have to be something incredible.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:24 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
^Randle can start next to George and Lebron if those are the two and we can somehow manage to get both. It may also be the case that we only get one or none. Regardless, because they are good players (and Nance is not), Kuzma and Randle have a better chance of being in the Lakers long-term future, which is why you prioritize them.

Thus, its not about just starting now or next year, but about minutes and lineups. The focus should be on giving Kuzma and Randle as many minutes as they can handle because you want to continue to develop them. Playing Nance takes away from that without any real benefit (looking at the advanced stats). Even if neither starts next year, starting them now helps to get them more minutes consistently and in a way that doesn't exhaust them by forcing them to play 12-16 minute stretches because you can't fit in a break (whereas you could if they started the game).


I can see Julius being a nice small ball center next to Lebron. He could probably get Lebron 2-3 assists per game.
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dao
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:32 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
MJST wrote:
Laker's Fan wrote:
Luke is playing Randle primarily at Center, so he's playing behind Lopez. He's been playing Nance in front of Kuzma. Where people got irritated with Luke is when he started giving Bogut minutes that could have gone to Randle. That was about Randle not bringng it


Randle's been "bringing it" since pre-season. That's no longer valid reasoning.

The honest truth is, Luke has no valid reasoning. The stats don't back it up, and Nance's play in comparison to Randle's and Kuzma's don't back it up. Which is why Luke uses the excuse "well it's not about the best player starting." now.


All this preseason talk.
Did he bring it?

https://stats.nba.com/player/203944/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Pre Season

And scroll down to the starter/bench stats. Very intriguing imo.
lol preseason advanced stats, I clicked the link with a strong sense of skepticism. But they really are eye popping huh?

Randle's Net rating in preseason was -29.2 with starters, +12.0 off the bench. I don't think starters vs bench is the big deal here, though. I think Randle is simply a center. So of course he'll perform better at backup center than starting PF.

He seems to be a pretty good center too, and I think he deserves a legit audition at starting center. Cousins will be 28 next year, and we'd be lucky to get three All Star seasons from him before his game falls off a cliff. If Randle can handle the starting center spot, you might want to keep him over Cousins, because Randle matches the timeline of Lonzo/Ingram/Kuzma.
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J.C. Smith
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:34 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
which advanced stats are you talking about? Nance has a higher BPM and RPM than Randle. RPM is close though.


This is a couple games out of date but I tracked all that when someone posted that same thing in the Nance thread.

Quote:
I would warn about advanced stats that they often have weird results. That doesn't mean that they shouldn't be taken into account. They all paint a certain picture based on how the calculation is done and so long as you take that into account they are useful. But to give an example, here's some of those advanced stats for the Lakers three power forwards and notice how vastly different they all are:

Basketball Reference

VORP (Value over Replacement Player):
Nance: 0.3
Kuzma: 0.1
Randle: 0.1

BPM: (Box Score Plus Minus)
Nance: +2.4
Randle: -1
Kuzma: -1.5

Defensive BPM:
Nance: +3
Randle: +1
Kuzma: -1.7

Offensive BPM:
Kuzma: +0.3
Nance: -0.6
Randle: -2

Win Shares:
Kuzma: +1.5
Nance: +1.3
Randle: +1

Win Shares/48:
Nance: 0.17
Randle: 0.12
Kuzma: 0.107

Offensive Win Shares:
Kuzma: 0.9
Nance: 0.5
Randle: 0.5

Defensive Win Shares:
Randle: 0.8
Kuzma: 0.6
Nance: 0.6

That is very slanted towards Nance and very much at odds with the stats on other sites.

82Games.com

Production:
Randle: +3.3
Kuzma: +0.5
Nance: -1.1

On Court:
Randle: +1
Kuzma: +0.5
Nance: -9.7

Net Rating:
Randle: +8.3
Kuzma: -2.8
Nance: -8.3

Simple Rating:
Randle: +5
Kuzma: -0.6
Nance: -3.5

Per Differential/48:
Randle (C): +4.6
Kuzma (PF): +2
Nance (PF): +0.4
Randle (PF): +0.3
Nance (C): -5

On/Off Net/100 Possessions:
Randle: +9
Kuzma: -0.8
Nance: -8

Win Percentage:
Randle (C): 60%
Randle (PF): 55%
Kuzma (PF): 52%
Nance (PF): 41%
Nance (C): 12%

That very much favors Randle, with Larry being the worst of the bunch.

NBA.Com:

PIE:
Randle: 12.8
Nance: 11.7
Kuzma: 11.5

Offensive Rating (points/100 poss):
Randle: 102.2
Kuzma: 101.7
Nance: 94.6

Defensive Rating (Lower is better, points allowed/100 poss):
Randle: 101.4
Nance:103.5
Kuzma: 105.8

Net Rating (points gained/100 poss):
Randle: +0.8
Kuzma: -4
Nance: -8.9

+/-:

Randle: +0.5
Kuzma: -2.9
Nance: -4.8

That also very much favors Randle, with Larry being the worst of the bunch.

ESPN:

PER:
Nance: 18.01
Randle: 17.21
Kuzma: 15.67

Value Added:
Randle: 43
Kuzma: 42.3
Nance: 28.3

Estimated Wins Added:
Kuzma: 1.4
Randle: 1.4
Nance: 0.9

RPM:
Nance: 0.48
Randle: 0.41
Kuzma: -2.64

Offensive RPM:
Kuzma: -0.04
Randle: -0.75
Nance: -1.18

Defensive RPM:
Nance: 1.66
Randle: 1.16
Kuzma: -2.6

That is the most mixed bag with each guy excelling in certain areas.


Last edited by J.C. Smith on Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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MJST
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:44 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
MJST wrote:
Laker's Fan wrote:
Luke is playing Randle primarily at Center, so he's playing behind Lopez. He's been playing Nance in front of Kuzma. Where people got irritated with Luke is when he started giving Bogut minutes that could have gone to Randle. That was about Randle not bringng it


Randle's been "bringing it" since pre-season. That's no longer valid reasoning.

The honest truth is, Luke has no valid reasoning. The stats don't back it up, and Nance's play in comparison to Randle's and Kuzma's don't back it up. Which is why Luke uses the excuse "well it's not about the best player starting." now.


All this preseason talk.
Did he bring it?

https://stats.nba.com/player/203944/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Pre Season

And scroll down to the starter/bench stats. Very intriguing imo.


You're aware that ORTG and DRTG to try to signify individual impact instead of the "lineup" impact is a noob move right?


Anyway, here's the other reality of the situation.

The lineup Randle dealt with in the pre-season was one where the starting center next to him was..

Thomas Bryant
Larry Nance Jr
Ivica Zubac

At center.

The MOMENT that Lopez came back (you know, one of our best lineups statistically this season when Luke's decided to actually go to it. Is when Luke decided to move Randle to the bench. Never letting the two of them share the court together. When he begrudgingly has to, they're one of our best lineups we have.

also point you to the above by J.C. Smith

So yeah Randle broyught it in pre-season.

HE averaged 13/7.3/1.5 with 0.8 BLKS a game while playing only 21 MPG.

So yes Randle's been bringing it since pre-season.

And as the regular season has gone on, our lineups with Randle at the 5 with Kuzma at the 4, as well as Randle at the 4 and Lopez at the 5 have been some of our best. Lopez's best lineup is one Luke is actively avoiding the usage of because it basically means Randle should be starting at the 4 if he wants that "role" at the 4, Randle suits it better than does Nance if that's what Luke's going for with the "little things" and "defense". The entire idea of Lopez being on the perimeter was so that Randle could take apart the defense inside with the center drawn away from the basket or to find Lopez on a kickout if the defense collapsed or any other teammate.

With Nance at the 4 spot that's never going to be an option. So it's a waste of Lopez being on the perimeter in the first place as he refuses to play the 4 that benefits/takes the most advantage from how he's deciding to play Lopez. That's what not just the eye test shows, but the stats back up.


As was said before, he does what he does in spite of Luke and because of the off-season of hard work he put in. Not because of Luke and in spite of the off-season work he put in.


J.C. Smith wrote:


In the couple games since then Randle's net rating (points gained/100 possessions) per NBA.com has skyrocketed to +4.3 which is the highest of any Laker who plays 15+ minutes and by a landslide (Clarkson is #2 at +0.1, more than 4 points lower)... and Nance's has fallen to -10.8, which is the lowest of any Laker who plays 15+ minutes... and that is also by a landslide. The next worse guy is Lonzo at -4.5, which is more than 6 points better than Nance.


Great break down!
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Last edited by MJST on Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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epak
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:44 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
epak wrote:
MJST wrote:
Laker's Fan wrote:
Luke is playing Randle primarily at Center, so he's playing behind Lopez. He's been playing Nance in front of Kuzma. Where people got irritated with Luke is when he started giving Bogut minutes that could have gone to Randle. That was about Randle not bringng it


Randle's been "bringing it" since pre-season. That's no longer valid reasoning.

The honest truth is, Luke has no valid reasoning. The stats don't back it up, and Nance's play in comparison to Randle's and Kuzma's don't back it up. Which is why Luke uses the excuse "well it's not about the best player starting." now.


All this preseason talk.
Did he bring it?

https://stats.nba.com/player/203944/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Pre Season

And scroll down to the starter/bench stats. Very intriguing imo.
lol preseason advanced stats, I clicked the link with a strong sense of skepticism. But they really are eye popping huh?

Randle's Net rating in preseason was -29.2 with starters, +12.0 off the bench. I don't think starters vs bench is the big deal here, though. I think Randle is simply a center. So of course he'll perform better at backup center than starting PF.

He seems to be a pretty good center too, and I think he deserves a legit audition at starting center. Cousins will be 28 next year, and we'd be lucky to get three All Star seasons from him before his game falls off a cliff. If Randle can handle the starting center spot, you might want to keep him over Cousins, because Randle matches the timeline of Lonzo/Ingram/Kuzma.


Honestly, I wouldn't mind testing Julius as a starter.
I was just tired of hearing that Julius proved it in preseason.

LS makes a good point about the lineups in preseason. But I don't think it was an obvious answer that Julius should be starting just based off of preseason.
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RoyalPurple8
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:46 pm    Post subject:

You guys ae getting way too in depth over this Nance/Randle thing. Its a team, the best player is not always gojng to start. The Lakers have alot of sporadic talent. Luke is doing a good job, they are trying to win games. By the end of the year Randle will probably average 24, 25 minutes per game? Nance 22 or 23 minutes.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:49 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Jr fighting to stay in la


JR fighting to get paid, he it LA or elsewhere.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:49 pm    Post subject:

Mjst, it's a noob move when it doesn't make Julius look good? Ok.
Anyway, u have ur opion on Julius and I have mine.
I'd say he's our 2nd best power forward.
And he's our best center.

But at this point I'm 50/50 on if I care if he's here next year or not. Mostly because of ur love for him
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:52 pm    Post subject:

Lakerican Eye Test

Offense

Randle : 40
Kuzma : 70
Nance : -10

Defense :

Randle :70
Kuzma : 10
Nance : 20

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dao
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:53 pm    Post subject:

@Jc Smith, that's interesting to see so much variation in all the cumulative advanced stats. I always check BPM since it's the quickest and easiest to check, and RPM if I'm really feeling frisky.

Eye test says that Randle has outplayed Nance, though Nance was playing very well before the injury. They play different positions though imo. I view Randle as a center, and he needs to play next to a stretch 4.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:53 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Mjst, it's a noob move when it doesn't make Julius look good?


No, read J.C. Smith's post above.

And if you can't understand that ORTG and DRTG are going to be effected by starting Zubac, Bryant, and Nance at center instead of Lopez and are trying to pin that on Randle individually, then we have nothing further to discuss.

Cause you've already had that debunked countless times, but if it's the only thing you go back to, it seems the only thing you have.

J.C.'s breakdown above should do enough to sate you and put that whole rest of it to bed.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:54 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Jr fighting to stay in la


JR fighting to get paid, he it LA or elsewhere.


True, but he doesn't strike me as the type who wouldn't produce on non contract years.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:58 pm    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
epak wrote:
Mjst, it's a noob move when it doesn't make Julius look good?


No, read J.C. Smith's post above.

And if you can't understand that ORTG and DRTG are going to be effected by starting Zubac, Bryant, and Nance at center instead of Lopez and are trying to pin that on Randle individually, then we have nothing further to discuss.

Cause you've already had that debunked countless times, but if it's the only thing you go back to, it seems the only thing you have.

J.C.'s breakdown above should do enough to sate you and put that whole rest of it to bed.


Dude I don't usually argue with you cuz I can't handle scrolling on my phone.
Yes we know what ortg and drtg tell us. And read above where I acknowledge LS's post about lineups. U act like I'm saying don't start Julius. Or that Nance is better than him. U read what I wrote right?

Anyway. I still don't agree that preseason told us he should start. U can think that, I won't. And we don't have to change our minds.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:00 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
@Jc Smith, that's interesting to see so much variation in all the cumulative advanced stats. I always check BPM since it's the quickest and easiest to check, and RPM if I'm really feeling frisky.

Eye test says that Randle has outplayed Nance, though Nance was playing very well before the injury. They play different positions though imo. I view Randle as a center, and he needs to play next to a stretch 4.


#friskydao
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:00 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
^You guys should look at the lineups we played in the preseason. We started Randle next to Nance and Zubac (remember, Kuzma came off the bench and Lopez was out). You don't play Randle next to another front court player who can't shoot.


to me that just reinforces the notion of him being a 5. There are very few centers who have legit gravity out to the three point line. Hell, our "stretch center" Lopez is shooting 29% from three. And guys sag off of Lopez relatively frequently, and are content with a half hearted closeout to contest. Stretch fours like Kuzma have legit gravity. That's the type of shooter you need next to Randle.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:02 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
^You guys should look at the lineups we played in the preseason. We started Randle next to Nance and Zubac (remember, Kuzma came off the bench and Lopez was out). You don't play Randle next to another front court player who can't shoot.


to me that just reinforces the notion of him being a 5. There are very few centers who have legit gravity out to the three point line. Hell, our "stretch center" Lopez is shooting 29% from three. And guys sag off of Lopez relatively frequently, and are content with a half hearted closeout to contest. Stretch fours like Kuzma have legit gravity. That's the type of shooter you need next to Randle.


Honestly he should only play with kuzma imo. Versatile!
Would like to see more minutes with Lopez just to prove me wrong.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:12 pm    Post subject:

He won't because he doesn't get enough minutes and touches, but Julius should absolutely be in the Most Improved Player discussion.

6MOY too.


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:16 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
He won't because he doesn't get enough minutes and touches, but Julius should absolutely be in the Most Improved Player discussion.


The lack of minutes drop his rebs, assts, and points from last year.
No way he gets a mention unless the voters care about advanced stats.
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:48 pm    Post subject:

dao wrote:
to me that just reinforces the notion of him being a 5.


I'd say that has certainly been the case this season. While he has outscored, outrebounded, and outassisted his counterpart when he's played power forward this year (with a 50% win percentage which is lower than Kuzma's 54% but higher than Nance's 46%) he's also shot a lot more jumpers at power forward which has caused him to be less efficient there. The amusing part about that is that after all the hard work he did on his jump shot this summer, it has actually regressed in game situations.

This Season compared to last:
<5': 68.8% (+10.3%)
5-9': 40.9% (+4.9%)
10-14': 30% (-16.3%)
15-19': 27.3% (-14.2%)
20-24': 10% (-18.3%)
25-29': 26.3% (+3.4%)
FT: 66.3% (-6%)

Dangers of changing form. Last season he was actually pretty effective with his mid-range jumper and late in the season he was marginally effective with this three point shot. This season he's taken a step backwards on his shooting, but is seeing a huge efficiency boost from his improved finishing ability.

He's been significantly more effective at center this season. With a 62% win percentage and better stats all around. Until/Unless he corrects his jumper I think that's the way it's going to be.
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epak
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:13 am    Post subject:

J.C. Smith wrote:
dao wrote:
to me that just reinforces the notion of him being a 5.


I'd say that has certainly been the case this season. While he has outscored, outrebounded, and outassisted his counterpart when he's played power forward this year (with a 50% win percentage which is lower than Kuzma's 54% but higher than Nance's 46%) he's also shot a lot more jumpers at power forward which has caused him to be less efficient there. The amusing part about that is that after all the hard work he did on his jump shot this summer, it has actually regressed in game situations.

This Season compared to last:
<5': 68.8% (+10.3%)
5-9': 40.9% (+4.9%)
10-14': 30% (-16.3%)
15-19': 27.3% (-14.2%)
20-24': 10% (-18.3%)
25-29': 26.3% (+3.4%)
FT: 66.3% (-6%)

Dangers of changing form. Last season he was actually pretty effective with his mid-range jumper and late in the season he was marginally effective with this three point shot. This season he's taken a step backwards on his shooting, but is seeing a huge efficiency boost from his improved finishing ability.

He's been significantly more effective at center this season. With a 62% win percentage and better stats all around. Until/Unless he corrects his jumper I think that's the way it's going to be.


Thanks for the numbers.
If that's the case and we want the most out of Julius as a center, one would think he should play most of his minutes alongside kuzma as the other big, since being next to Larry doesn't seem as effective.

So if we want Julius to start at the 5, kuzma should start as well.
I'm for this experiment.
I wonder if JCs numbers suffer if he plays with Larry and Brook.
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J.C. Smith
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:28 am    Post subject:

epak wrote:
So if we want Julius to start at the 5, kuzma should start as well.


I agree with that, though it's why I think Nance is starting instead of Kuzma, because Luke wants to start Lopez and he realizes that both Nance and Randle need to be paired with a shooter. I think Randle could start next to Lopez if you are playing him at power forward. But otherwise I don't think you want Nance as your primary backup center (he's been awful at center) so it more or less has to be a package deal with one lineup of Kuzma/Randle, and the other of Nance/Lopez. Just a matter of which of those two starts.
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