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yinoma2001
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 Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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| EldenCampbell wrote: | | I expect Kobe to average 22 ppg in 30-32 mpg. He's in the twilight of his career, coming off two major injuries. If that can be accomplished at an efficiency comparable to Dirk or Duncan, that would be great. I'd rather see Kobe play an entire season with those numbers than gun for another scoring record and get hurt again. |
This.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Believe what you want, we can all go with what we have seen from Kobe during his career. There have been lots of doubters. Of course they were wrong, but they keep doubting. |
Can we agree that it would be an impressive and unexpected accomplishment if Kobe averaged 38+ minutes and played 70+ games? Sure, I can imagine it happening, but it's something of a longshot. |
I actually expect that from him this season. |
Prepare for disappointment. What you're expecting has never happened in the history of the NBA when it comes to torn achilles victims.
Do you spend a lot of money on lottery tickets and tell yourself every year that you expect that this is "your year"? |
Funny thing is, I have no respect for anything you have ever posted so to posit what I should expect from Kobe seems nothing as hollow babble.
As to your question. Let's just say I do ok. I'd be willing to bet that, with a greater than 99% chance of accuracy, the worst year I have had financially in the past 15 years is better than the best year you have ever had. |
That's really great but I think you might have missed the point.
FWIW, in general, it is my preferred approach to educate myself about situations as much as possible in order to make the most accurate projections. Just making random, wild claims without having much of any facts is kind of silly to though it is clearly a habit for some.
I know it can be frustrating when you have a certain hope, and the facts don't always line up with that hope. I totally get that. No need to get upset. But if you have any facts on which you base your projections, let's discuss those. Totally open to any new facts which might impact my projections. (For instance, maybe there is an achilles tear sufferer that played more than 38 MPG. If you know of one, bring it on in). |
No, I didn't miss your point. VLF addressed your point about facts and I addressed your implied jibe that I have no knowledge of basketball or anatomy and physiology as well as the implication that I play the lotto. I don't play because winning it wouldn't change my life one bit. |
VLF addressed the point about facts with the "BELIEVE!" mantra. I've given specific facts about the achilles tear injury and what it has done to every other player who suffered it, there are the facts about his age which he knows, the fact that he tried to come back once and wasn't able to successfully. Of course there is the fact that he has shown the ability to play through injury and my projections reflect that as well.
What I am trying to get you to explain, without the "BELIEVE!" mantra, is what facts are you relying on to conclude with confidence that Kobe will have an output this season he couldn't do half of the time in any season throughout his entire career.
If it's hope you're relying on that's fine just say so. I mean, I'm hoping for a career best season from the guy, and hey, it's Kobe, so anything is possible right? But what I THINK will happen is based on the facts. That's all. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | EldenCampbell wrote: | | I expect Kobe to average 22 ppg in 30-32 mpg. He's in the twilight of his career, coming off two major injuries. If that can be accomplished at an efficiency comparable to Dirk or Duncan, that would be great. I'd rather see Kobe play an entire season with those numbers than gun for another scoring record and get hurt again. |
This. |
Thirded. This is right where I have Kobe as well. A season like that would be a heck of an accomplishment and single-handedly put comfortably in the second-best-comeback-from-an-achilles-tear territory just behind Nique. |
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venturalakersfan
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Joined: 14 Apr 2001
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Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| ringfinger wrote: |
VLF addressed the point about facts with the "BELIEVE!" mantra. I've given specific facts about the achilles tear injury and what it has done to every other player who suffered it, there are the facts about his age which he knows, the fact that he tried to come back once and wasn't able to successfully. Of course there is the fact that he has shown the ability to play through injury and my projections reflect that as well.
What I am trying to get you to explain, without the "BELIEVE!" mantra, is what facts are you relying on to conclude with confidence that Kobe will have an output this season he couldn't do half of the time in any season throughout his entire career.
If it's hope you're relying on that's fine just say so. I mean, I'm hoping for a career best season from the guy, and hey, it's Kobe, so anything is possible right? But what I THINK will happen is based on the facts. That's all. |
Again, we are basing our opinions on the fact that none of us have seen Kobe play. So how can we speak factually about how Kobe plays when we haven't seen him play? Easy answer, we can't.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:17 pm Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Prepare for disappointment. What you're expecting has never happened in the history of the NBA when it comes to torn achilles victims. |
Well, actually, Kobe already came back from the Achilles injury. It seems like a lot of people have conflated his knee injury with the prior Achilles injury. That's okay as long as you don't forget that the injury that knocked him out for the season was a knee.
I stress this because this isn't just one isolated injury. Kobe's knees have been giving him trouble for years. We know about his fingers. This isn't a healthy, young guy who blew out his Achilles. This isn't even Dominique Wilkins.
Maybe Kobe will shock the world, but I'd be surprised if he can sustain more than about 30 minutes per game and 20-22 ppg. Anything more than that, and he would be a season ending injury waiting to happen.
Kobe averaged about 14/6/4 in 29 minutes in the games he played last season. That's misleading, though. The reality is that he had three games in which he was effective, and three games in which he was ineffective. They alternated -- he never had two strong games in a row. We started giving him more playing time, and he broke down.
Kobe has surprised people before, but I just don't share the optimism I'm seeing around here. |
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wolfpaclaker
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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22/5 in 34 mpg is my bet.
Top 20 player in the league.
Other than Harden, is there a better SG than him next year? I doubt it. And I think Harden is extremely inconsistent.
Nowitzki IMO is closer to top 30 in the league right now. Duncan is tricky, because he can play C, it makes him so valuable. So I think Duncan even this late in his career (at least last year) was one of the top 20 players in the league - especially impact wise. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Prepare for disappointment. What you're expecting has never happened in the history of the NBA when it comes to torn achilles victims. |
Well, actually, Kobe already came back from the Achilles injury. It seems like a lot of people have conflated his knee injury with the prior Achilles injury. That's okay as long as you don't forget that the injury that knocked him out for the season was a knee.
I stress this because this isn't just one isolated injury. Kobe's knees have been giving him trouble for years. We know about his fingers. This isn't a healthy, young guy who blew out his Achilles. This isn't even Dominique Wilkins.
Maybe Kobe will shock the world, but I'd be surprised if he can sustain more than about 30 minutes per game and 20-22 ppg. Anything more than that, and he would be a season ending injury waiting to happen.
Kobe averaged about 14/6/4 in 29 minutes in the games he played last season. That's misleading, though. The reality is that he had three games in which he was effective, and three games in which he was ineffective. They alternated -- he never had two strong games in a row. We started giving him more playing time, and he broke down.
Kobe has surprised people before, but I just don't share the optimism I'm seeing around here. |
And I think the illustration is that he likely won't be able to sustain great play over long periods like he used when healthier. More peaks and valleys. Usually that's the case with aging players, particularly perimeter ones.
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nashftw
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2014 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
VLF addressed the point about facts with the "BELIEVE!" mantra. I've given specific facts about the achilles tear injury and what it has done to every other player who suffered it, there are the facts about his age which he knows, the fact that he tried to come back once and wasn't able to successfully. Of course there is the fact that he has shown the ability to play through injury and my projections reflect that as well.
What I am trying to get you to explain, without the "BELIEVE!" mantra, is what facts are you relying on to conclude with confidence that Kobe will have an output this season he couldn't do half of the time in any season throughout his entire career.
If it's hope you're relying on that's fine just say so. I mean, I'm hoping for a career best season from the guy, and hey, it's Kobe, so anything is possible right? But what I THINK will happen is based on the facts. That's all. |
Again, we are basing our opinions on the fact that none of us have seen Kobe play. So how can we speak factually about how Kobe plays when we haven't seen him play? Easy answer, we can't. |
No one is talking about speaking factually about how Kobe plays. Where did you get that from? I'm talking about projecting. You know, kind like what you did in the 105 PPG thread when you said you think we'd score less than that.
Regardless of whether you believe Kobe will play 38 MPG, score 25 points, or whatever, a person is either projecting based on facts at hand with the goal to be as accurate as possible, or they are projecting based on hope. |
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KobeBryantCliffordBrown
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Joined: 28 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:59 am Post subject: Re: T or F. Kobe should still be better than Dirk and Duncan next season. |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | venturalakersfan wrote: | | Believe what you want, we can all go with what we have seen from Kobe during his career. There have been lots of doubters. Of course they were wrong, but they keep doubting. |
Can we agree that it would be an impressive and unexpected accomplishment if Kobe averaged 38+ minutes and played 70+ games? Sure, I can imagine it happening, but it's something of a longshot. |
I actually expect that from him this season. |
Prepare for disappointment. What you're expecting has never happened in the history of the NBA when it comes to torn achilles victims.
Do you spend a lot of money on lottery tickets and tell yourself every year that you expect that this is "your year"? |
Funny thing is, I have no respect for anything you have ever posted so to posit what I should expect from Kobe seems nothing as hollow babble.
As to your question. Let's just say I do ok. I'd be willing to bet that, with a greater than 99% chance of accuracy, the worst year I have had financially in the past 15 years is better than the best year you have ever had. |
That's really great but I think you might have missed the point.
FWIW, in general, it is my preferred approach to educate myself about situations as much as possible in order to make the most accurate projections. Just making random, wild claims without having much of any facts is kind of silly to though it is clearly a habit for some.
I know it can be frustrating when you have a certain hope, and the facts don't always line up with that hope. I totally get that. No need to get upset. But if you have any facts on which you base your projections, let's discuss those. Totally open to any new facts which might impact my projections. (For instance, maybe there is an achilles tear sufferer that played more than 38 MPG. If you know of one, bring it on in). |
No, I didn't miss your point. VLF addressed your point about facts and I addressed your implied jibe that I have no knowledge of basketball or anatomy and physiology as well as the implication that I play the lotto. I don't play because winning it wouldn't change my life one bit. |
Out of curiosity what was your prediction re Kobe last season (2013-14)? |
I had him at 27/6/5. But when he came in at 225 lbs, I knew he was going to take about 6 weeks to get to the point where he could do that. The tibial injury was a freak injury that could happen to any athlete at any time. We have no way of knowing what Kobe would have done last season.
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KobeBryantCliffordBrown
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:01 am Post subject: |
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One thing we know for sure. There is going to be a whole lot of Crow eaten over this topic next season by one side or the other. I can't wait to see how it unfolds.
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“It took many years of vomiting up all the filth I’d been taught about myself, and half-believed, before I was able to walk on the earth as though I had a right to be here.”
― James Baldwin, Collected Essays |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:38 am Post subject: |
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| KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | One thing we know for sure. There is going to be a whole lot of Crow eaten over this topic next season by one side or the other. I can't wait to see how it unfolds. |
Well sadly, most of us are Lakers fans and seeing Kobe fail is not an option for me at all.
But as you stated above, you had Kobe at 27/6/5, but then saw him crumble with the knee injury, which could happen to anyone.
I want to see a healthy and productive Kobe. If he chases those stats, it'll require him to break his body again (37-38 mpg just to sniff 25/5/5 IMO). That's not worth it IMO. I'd rather have a healthy, but slightly less stat-gaudy Kobe than a stat-heavy but hurt Kobe.
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:50 am Post subject: |
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| KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | One thing we know for sure. There is going to be a whole lot of Crow eaten over this topic next season by one side or the other. I can't wait to see how it unfolds. |
Eating crow? Typically, one would eat crow after a bold claim turned out to be wrong. I think we've just been coming in with two different objectives. I wasn't trying to make a bold claim, rather, consider factors that would positively or negatively influence Kobe's statistical output. Maybe you were the one making the bold claim?
And let's be honest about crow eating. Few people own up to it and actually eat that crow. There's always an excuse. You know, like "freak injury". =)
FWIW, there is really no freak on-court injury when you're 35 and have logged more miles than 99% of all human beings who have ever played in the NBA. A freak accident would be like, if a plane crashed on route to a road game and the player perished.
With an older player, you'd typically want to factor injuries in to your projection as the likelihood of injury goes up with age. And miles. And with achilles tears. And knee problems. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:07 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | KobeBryantCliffordBrown wrote: | | One thing we know for sure. There is going to be a whole lot of Crow eaten over this topic next season by one side or the other. I can't wait to see how it unfolds. |
Well sadly, most of us are Lakers fans and seeing Kobe fail is not an option for me at all.
But as you stated above, you had Kobe at 27/6/5, but then saw him crumble with the knee injury, which could happen to anyone.
I want to see a healthy and productive Kobe. If he chases those stats, it'll require him to break his body again (37-38 mpg just to sniff 25/5/5 IMO). That's not worth it IMO. I'd rather have a healthy, but slightly less stat-gaudy Kobe than a stat-heavy but hurt Kobe. |
Exactly. Heck, I don't even want my projection to be right. I hope it's wrong. |
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DJ Slik
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:18 am Post subject: |
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| FALSE. others have made great points about position and how big men games age better than guards/wings, but IMO the biggest reason is because he is coming back from a truly untested Achilles tendon repair. The Achilles tendon basically provides the spring to take off and jump. It's probably one of the worst injuries for a basketball player. Neither Duncan nor Dirk have to contend with coming back from such a traumatic injury from a sports medicine standpoint. At this point if Duncan were to tear his Achilles he would almost certainly retire immediately. |
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