Houston 2015 pick position?
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seccom
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:23 am    Post subject: Houston 2015 pick position?

Together with the JLin trade, the Lakers get Houston's 2015 1st round pick. Houston finished last season @54-28 and has the same record as Miami and Portland and drafted 25.

However, Houston lost JLin, Asik and Parson and only added Ariza. Their record will likely take a big hit.

I am guessing they will lost at least 5-8 more games. If they lost 6 more games, the record will be 48-34, the same as Phoenix in 2014 and will have a chance to miss the playoff.

If they miss the playoff, the Lakers will not get that pick and get the 2016 Houston pick (I believe to be top-10 protected).

On the other hand, if Houston still make the playoff, let us say the record is 49-33, the same as Dallas in 2014. Lakers will get that pick. Dallas pick was 21 in 2014.

Do you want Houston's pick in 2015 or in 2016? And what is your guess of Houston's record in 2015?


Last edited by seccom on Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:27 am    Post subject:

I think it'll be in the 15-20 range. McHale is a terrible coach and there's an outside chance he completely loses the team and they go completely bust...
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:30 am    Post subject:

silkwilkes wrote:
I think it'll be in the 15-20 range. McHale is a terrible coach and there's an outside chance he completely loses the team and they go completely bust...


Plus the East got way better. That pick was a great move by Mitch, lucky too. Thank You Bosh!
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:33 am    Post subject:

Hopefully they do well enough to barely make the playoffs while we get the 7th seed
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:35 am    Post subject:

What is the protection in 2015 and what is it in 2016?
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:35 am    Post subject:

chantruong wrote:
Hopefully they do well enough to barely make the playoffs while we get the 7th seed


Hopefully a 2013 deja vu.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:35 am    Post subject:

Well, Dreamshake will probably be the contrarian and argue that the team is somehow better (and of course deriding Lin, Parson, and Asik in the process too).

I think they will be a mid-seed playoff team only if Harden/Dwight stay healthy. If Dwight is hurt, they have to go with D-Mo and he's nowhere near Dwight, nor is Joey "Muscles" Dorsey.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:39 am    Post subject:

No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:42 am    Post subject:

dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:48 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:51 am    Post subject:

dmorans1 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.


I stated that 4-8 will be a very tight pocket, with just a few games separating 4-8. They will be a weaker team, but they still have Harden/Dwight and Ariza/Bev will still be effective defenders.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:17 am    Post subject:

Can anyone confirm any protections on the Houston pick. Just checked a couple of trade sites and they are not showing any protections.

That being the case... I am hoping for Houston to plummet down the standings. Perhaps that pick could be borderline lottery or better. Also the added pleasure of watching Howard whine about his not getting enough touches as they struggle would make me happy. Petty, I know!

Would love to see the Lakers competitive and sneak into the playoffs and the lottery ball from Hous land a top 10 player. Not in my nature to hope for the Lakers to suck enough to keep their top 5 pick.


Last edited by Four Decade Bandwagon on Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:32 am; edited 2 times in total
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NomisR
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:17 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.


I stated that 4-8 will be a very tight pocket, with just a few games separating 4-8. They will be a weaker team, but they still have Harden/Dwight and Ariza/Bev will still be effective defenders.


Considering that they actually lost their #3, #4, #5 best scoring options on that team. I don't think Ariza's going to be that big of a boost for them, and that was pretty much all they picked up. They regressed in terms of depth. And Beverley's overrated on his defense and it'll show next year when they play the elite guards.

Considering how much they've regressed and also noting what Lillard said about Houston, i think the situation would get worse and they may even struggle to make the 8th seed.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:24 am    Post subject:

Chronicle wrote:
What is the protection in 2015 and what is it in 2016?


http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?p=5914956

Lottery 2015, Top 10 2 more years, Top 5 2 more years after.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:26 am    Post subject:

NomisR wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.


I stated that 4-8 will be a very tight pocket, with just a few games separating 4-8. They will be a weaker team, but they still have Harden/Dwight and Ariza/Bev will still be effective defenders.


Considering that they actually lost their #3, #4, #5 best scoring options on that team. I don't think Ariza's going to be that big of a boost for them, and that was pretty much all they picked up. They regressed in terms of depth. And Beverley's overrated on his defense and it'll show next year when they play the elite guards.

Considering how much they've regressed and also noting what Lillard said about Houston, i think the situation would get worse and they may even struggle to make the 8th seed.


Ok...you guys have me reconsidering. I'll peg Houston 6-8. However, they still have a large TPE, and a few other mechanisms to improve their team. So maybe wait until they're finished with this squad.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:32 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
NomisR wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.


I stated that 4-8 will be a very tight pocket, with just a few games separating 4-8. They will be a weaker team, but they still have Harden/Dwight and Ariza/Bev will still be effective defenders.


Considering that they actually lost their #3, #4, #5 best scoring options on that team. I don't think Ariza's going to be that big of a boost for them, and that was pretty much all they picked up. They regressed in terms of depth. And Beverley's overrated on his defense and it'll show next year when they play the elite guards.

Considering how much they've regressed and also noting what Lillard said about Houston, i think the situation would get worse and they may even struggle to make the 8th seed.


Ok...you guys have me reconsidering. I'll peg Houston 6-8. However, they still have a large TPE, and a few other mechanisms to improve their team. So maybe wait until they're finished with this squad.


True.. but i think Houston's going to have trouble getting another star to the team in the future with Harden's comment of

Quote:
Dwight (Howard) and I are the cornerstones of the Rockets. The rest of the guys are role players or pieces that complete our team. We've lost some pieces and added some pieces. I think we'll be fine next season.


Yeah.. who wants to go there to be considered a "piece". They'll be traded there this year, but staying... i guess they'll have to overpay.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:33 am    Post subject:

I have the Rockets finishing with the 7th seed and this is if Howard stays healthy and play close to 80 games. We would get the 23rd pick but if Howard only plays 70 games, they could miss the playoffs and the pick would be in the 17-20 range. The west will be a lot better in so will the east, 7th seed at best for the Rockets.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:36 am    Post subject:

Dave20 wrote:
I have the Rockets finishing with the 7th seed and this is if Howard stays healthy and play close to 80 games. We would get the 23rd pick but if Howard only plays 70 games, they could miss the playoffs and the pick would be in the 17-20 range. The west will be a lot better in so will the east, 7th seed at best for the Rockets.


If they miss the playoffs they would be in the lottery.


Last edited by dmorans1 on Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:36 am    Post subject:

NomisR wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
NomisR wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


So you kinda bash Dreamshake but then rank Houston in the same range they were last season? Yeah doesn't make any sense.


I stated that 4-8 will be a very tight pocket, with just a few games separating 4-8. They will be a weaker team, but they still have Harden/Dwight and Ariza/Bev will still be effective defenders.


Considering that they actually lost their #3, #4, #5 best scoring options on that team. I don't think Ariza's going to be that big of a boost for them, and that was pretty much all they picked up. They regressed in terms of depth. And Beverley's overrated on his defense and it'll show next year when they play the elite guards.

Considering how much they've regressed and also noting what Lillard said about Houston, i think the situation would get worse and they may even struggle to make the 8th seed.


Ok...you guys have me reconsidering. I'll peg Houston 6-8. However, they still have a large TPE, and a few other mechanisms to improve their team. So maybe wait until they're finished with this squad.


True.. but i think Houston's going to have trouble getting another star to the team in the future with Harden's comment of

Quote:
Dwight (Howard) and I are the cornerstones of the Rockets. The rest of the guys are role players or pieces that complete our team. We've lost some pieces and added some pieces. I think we'll be fine next season.


Yeah.. who wants to go there to be considered a "piece". They'll be traded there this year, but staying... i guess they'll have to overpay.


That statement is technically true, but it belies the human element in producing winning basketball. They've seemed to adopt the d-bag element of Morey's "you are a widget" view of fungible basketball assets. However, in the end, it's the $ that will be the ulimate factor. Ironically, Ariza chased the $ (though it was the same $ as the Lakers offered Artest), was booted from Houston, and now he returns...to chase that $.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:50 am    Post subject:

dmorans1 wrote:
Dave20 wrote:
We would get the 23rd pick but if Howard only plays 70 games, they could miss the playoffs and the pick would be in the 17-20 range. The west will be a lot better in so will the east, 7th seed at best for the Rockets.


If they miss the playoffs they would be in the lottery.
Yeah, I think they end up with the 7th seed and will keep the pick.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:52 am    Post subject:

Dave20 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
Dave20 wrote:
We would get the 23rd pick but if Howard only plays 70 games, they could miss the playoffs and the pick would be in the 17-20 range. The west will be a lot better in so will the east, 7th seed at best for the Rockets.


If they miss the playoffs they would be in the lottery.
Yeah, I think they end up with the 7th seed and will keep the pick.


What? Pick is lottery protected. If they make the playoffs, it's ours. You meant us right?
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:59 am    Post subject:

seccom wrote:
Chronicle wrote:
What is the protection in 2015 and what is it in 2016?


http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?p=5914956

Lottery 2015, Top 10 2 more years, Top 5 2 more years after.


Apologies for belaboring the point but can anyone confirm the Houston pick is lottery protected.

Most of the trade outlines/comments/articles I have found (including the link above) were from July 13th. The day of the trade. Is it possible the pick was not protected when deal was completed?

I just checked several sites that outlined trade transactions. None of them are showing the Houston 1st as protected.

To compare, the next sentence states the Houston (Clipper) 2nd rounder has multiple specific protections. Same with all other protected picks for all the teams in the League.

Perhaps a recommendation for the most reliable up to date transaction info?


Last edited by Four Decade Bandwagon on Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:15 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:10 am    Post subject:

I thought it was only top 10 protected, not lottery protected.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:10 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
dmorans1 wrote:
No way they're a mid-seed playoff team. Portland, Dallas, and GS have the 4th seed trough the 6th all but locked right now. We'll be battling with them, Memphis, PHX, and NO for those last spots.


1-3: Spurs, OKC, Clips,

4-6 range: Portland, Dallas, GS, Houston

7-8: Memphis, Phx, NO

rest: Lakers, Denver, Sacramento, Utah, Minny.

This is how I see it breaking down. You're right though, the 4-8 range will be brutal, and probably separated by few games.


Portland are unlikely to have an all time no injury run again (and probably won't start 23-2 or whatever it was), drop them, Memphis are unlikely to lose their 2 best players to major time again, put them up, and Dallas gave up as much as they got.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:15 am    Post subject:

silkwilkes wrote:
I thought it was only top 10 protected, not lottery protected.


Lottery protected the first year, top ten protected the next two years. Money was at least smart enough to add in the protections to cover himself in case of catastrophic events, even though they had little expectation of it happening.
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