Houston 2015 pick position?
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:54 am    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Season record does not determine playoff eligibility. Winning X games doesn't guarantee you of anything.


Actually, going by league history, winning 50 games does guarantee you a playoff spot. Since the league went to the 16 team playoff format, a team that has won 50 games has NEVER missed the postseason (FACT). We can agree to disagree on whether something that has NEVER occured would be shocking or not. I feel quite comfortable saying the trend of 50 games = playoffs will continue, just as it did last season when you did not need 50 wins to make it.


How shocked were you when Phoenix missed with 48 wins? Did you experience PTSD? Did you fall over? Were you physically ... ill for some time?

ringfinger wrote:
Haha. You're still confused! 49 wins would NOT have guaranteed you a playoff spot last year.


Yes it would have. The 9 seed had 48 wins. Another FACT.[/quote]

So if 4 teams had 49 wins last season, all 4 of them would have made the postseason?

Wow, a 12 team Western Conference!
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:06 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
How shocked were you when Phoenix missed with 48 wins? Did you experience PTSD? Did you fall over? Were you physically ... ill for some time?


I'm lost on what a team winning 48 games has to do with me saying a team will make the playoffs if they win 50 games. Please explain.

ringfinger wrote:
So if 4 teams had 49 wins last season, all 4 of them would have made the postseason?

Wow, a 12 team Western Conference!


The fact is that 49 wins got you a playoff spot last season. 48 wins did not (in the West). The fact is 50 wins got you a playoff in every season in league history since the league has had the 16 team format.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:06 pm    Post subject:

jjww28 wrote:
Cool426 wrote:
jjww28 wrote:
Buck32 wrote:
jjww28 wrote:
Cool426 wrote:
jjww28 wrote:
Lin is a supersub, he played more 4th quarter and OT minutes per game than anyone else, Go check clutch time stats at nba.com, one of two rockets players could creat their own shoot effectively at clutch time.

Lin was nominated "Player of the week" two times last season, why? Beacuse he puts up big stats and wins over good teams during the absence of Harden. Is there any other bench player nominated twice last season?

Go back to Lin's thread with this. Here is about Houston's pick.

No one cares what he did in the 4th quarter OT minutes last year.
No one cares about his nominations last year.
No one cares about his clutch time shooting last year.


If you don't see how it is relevant, it is your problem.
Don't speak for others, Ok?



Well, he speaks for me. I don't care about Lin the person or the player or what the hell he did in Houston. I'm staying away from the Lin thread because of all the Lin worship, and I was hoping I won't see the same thing in other threads like this - a thread about the Houston pick!


I merely speaks the facts. Read my pervious post in this thread, Rockets still has TPE, MLE, BAE, but they haven't found proven replacement for Lin, yet.

Dreamshack just said Lin is not a supersub, thus won't effect Huston's standing. I disagree and give the facts, with no 6th man/ 2nd playmaker, especially in clutch time (you can easily verify it in stats.nba.com). Houston's record gonna suffer, I think it is totally relevant to this thread. I don't know how you fail to see it.

You sound like it is forbidden to mention Lin in this board other than Lin thread, and you need seek refuge to avoid discussion invovling Lin. This is ridiculous.

First, Lin didn't even get one vote for Sixth Man of the Year Award (link). There were 110 voters from various media affiliations. Not even a single third place vote! If you keep saying Lin as a "supersub," don't be surprised if most don't agree with you and hence the backlashes.

In your OP, you stated that Lin played more 4Q and OT minutes than anyone else. You didn't provide any link, so I checked NBA.com myself.

4th quarter total min (link)

Parsons, 64 game, 592 min
Lin, 68 games, 555 min

1st OT total min (link)

Parsons 5 games, 25 min
Lin, 5 games, 24 min

2nd OT (1 game) link

Parson 3 min
Lin 4 min

Lin played more games than Parsons and had less total minutes. No matter how you slice it, your statement is false!

Lin's clutch stats are not what you made out to be. His NeRtg, 2P%, 3P%, were all good but nothing impressive. The only outstanding stat was his TO's. He actually turned the ball only 3 times for the whole season during clutch (5-point and 5 min or less).

If you don't want to lose whatever little credibility you had left, provide links and crucial stats such as ppg, shooting %'s, apg to make your point, not how many times he was nominated for player of the week.


64 and 68 are their appearances in 4th quarter during regular season, not how many games they played.

Lin played 71 games (one game vs hawks starts 4mins then injured), Parson played 74 games during regular season.

http://nbawowy.com/query/nfe3zn4hoh4r6bt9

see above link, during regular season, Lin played 585mins(2054 total), Parsons played 620mins (2783 total) in 4th and OT.

585/(71-1)=8.36mins, 28.5% total mins
620/(74)=8.38mins, 22.2% total mins

All right, my bad, 2nd most 0.02 mins short.

clutch time performance: NetRtg=17.1, TS=60% , very low TO ratio, as 2nd playmarker/scorer , and you are not impressed:)

Lin is not gonna make 6MPOY by taking 9 shots per game.

Back to the point, Lin is a supersub. Now Rockets backup PG is canaan, who is clearly unproven.


Let's see Cool426's response to this.
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qiantom
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject:

This is getting pretty boring, guys. You are just repeating the same things, comparing apples to oranges.

I still think the deciding factor will be injuries. If they stay healthy, Houston will probably get around 50 wins and be in the playoffs. However, if one of Harden, Howard, and even Ariza is out for an extended period, they will almost certainly not get 50 wins and then most likely miss the playoffs.

Last year, several teams had such injuries, M Gasol, Westbrook, Paul to name a few. These teams had depth to play through injuries and still make playoffs, especially OKC and Clippers. It does not seem that Houston will have much depth next season.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:30 pm    Post subject:

qiantom wrote:
This is getting pretty boring, guys. You are just repeating the same things, comparing apples to oranges.

I still think the deciding factor will be injuries. If they stay healthy, Houston will probably get around 50 wins and be in the playoffs. However, if one of Harden, Howard, and even Ariza is out for an extended period, they will almost certainly not get 50 wins and then most likely miss the playoffs.

Last year, several teams had such injuries, M Gasol, Westbrook, Paul to name a few. These teams had depth to play through injuries and still make playoffs, especially OKC and Clippers. It does not seem that Houston will have much depth next season.


It's a long season and many teams will inevitably have injuries to their roster. That's one reason why depth is important.

Howard played 71 games last year, that was pretty good. If that number drops his backups are thin. Asik could sub in for him during injury and when he was out.

Beverley is barely serviceable as a point guard. He's more of a point that just passes the ball to Harden and gets out of the way.

Injury may be a huge factor. Whatever it is, the team got weaker and won't win as many games. Portland should easily overtake them and probably some other teams as well.

I do see them winning about 50 with Howard and Harden healthy but if injuries take their toll , Houston won't have the depth to handle it. As for being contenders, they are far from that and will struggle in the playoffs. I see another first round exit on the horizon even if they do make it.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:59 pm    Post subject:

AVoiceInTheCrowd wrote:

It's obvious that your a Rockets fan. But, your opinion is just that of one fan. Those scrubs Asik and Lin on that 45 win season were more than just scrubs that year. In a radio interview by Morey, his stats (his own formula) listed the players who contributed the most win/shares that year. 1. Harden - 2. Asik - 3. Lin - 4. Parsons. Those scrubs certainly contributed a lot to the team's success in the 45 win season. I trust Morey's stats, more than any fan's opinion.

Yes, Houston may have won 65% without Asik but they won 67% of the games with Asik playing. They were still technically better with him than without him. I know small difference.

That 67% is a little misleading because in the beginning they tried to force the twin towers to start games which didn't work. They ended up going 11-8. When they finally figured that out and brought Asik off the bench they went 21-8. They won 72% of their games when they used him correctly and brought him off the bench.

Also, Lin. Houston has a winning percentage of 55% when he was out. And they had a winning percentage of 68% with him playing. They were better with him than without him. (I know that it's a small sample size of only 11 games without him)

Parsons is a little better player than Ariza.

My point is that these players helped Houston win more games with them than without them. And there hasn't been any replacements besides Ariza. The general consensus by experts is that Houston is a weaker team this year than last year. And as so many other posters have pointed out. If Houston wins 4-6 fewer games next year, than they might be fighting for the 7 or 8 spot.


Don't forget that based on last year's stats, Rockets are still losing 3 of their top 7 players in win shares, at #3, #5, #7.

The winshare contribution is 7.6 for Parson, 4.4 for Lin, and 2.4 for Asik, you're still looking at 14.4 wins that's estimated to be responsible by these 3 players. So even with additional of Ariza in place of Parson with no difference, you're still looking at close to 7 win difference. So it's not hard to imagine them going from 4th seed to 9th seed

I agree it's YMMV since it's all about basketball, not stats but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

But of course this will be ignored again even though it was brought up a 2nd time.
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NomisR
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 1:01 pm    Post subject:

-Showtime- wrote:
qiantom wrote:
This is getting pretty boring, guys. You are just repeating the same things, comparing apples to oranges.

I still think the deciding factor will be injuries. If they stay healthy, Houston will probably get around 50 wins and be in the playoffs. However, if one of Harden, Howard, and even Ariza is out for an extended period, they will almost certainly not get 50 wins and then most likely miss the playoffs.

Last year, several teams had such injuries, M Gasol, Westbrook, Paul to name a few. These teams had depth to play through injuries and still make playoffs, especially OKC and Clippers. It does not seem that Houston will have much depth next season.


It's a long season and many teams will inevitably have injuries to their roster. That's one reason why depth is important.

Howard played 71 games last year, that was pretty good. If that number drops his backups are thin. Asik could sub in for him during injury and when he was out.

Beverley is barely serviceable as a point guard. He's more of a point that just passes the ball to Harden and gets out of the way.

Injury may be a huge factor. Whatever it is, the team got weaker and won't win as many games. Portland should easily overtake them and probably some other teams as well.

I do see them winning about 50 with Howard and Harden healthy but if injuries take their toll , Houston won't have the depth to handle it. As for being contenders, they are far from that and will struggle in the playoffs. I see another first round exit on the horizon even if they do make it.


As Lakers fans, I think we all know how important depth can be. Considering one game, we were down to 4 players from players getting injured and fouling out...so, hey, maybe Murphy went to Houston... I rather get the 1st round pick though.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:50 pm    Post subject:

-Showtime- wrote:
Howard played 71 games last year, that was pretty good.


71 games is pretty good for Howard? Aside from the season where he hurt his back, his season low for games played was 76 (in LA, when he should not have been playing). Every other season it's been 78 games or more.

-Showtime- wrote:
If that number drops his backups are thin.


His backups were thin for the majority of last year, when Asik was either hurt or pouting.

-Showtime- wrote:
Asik could sub in for him during injury and when he was out.


We were only 6-5 in games Howard missed, when we had Asik.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:30 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
-Showtime- wrote:
Howard played 71 games last year, that was pretty good.


71 games is pretty good for Howard? Aside from the season where he hurt his back, his season low for games played was 76 (in LA, when he should not have been playing). Every other season it's been 78 games or more.

-Showtime- wrote:
If that number drops his backups are thin.


His backups were thin for the majority of last year, when Asik was either hurt or pouting.

-Showtime- wrote:
Asik could sub in for him during injury and when he was out.


We were only 6-5 in games Howard missed, when we had Asik.


I never wrote that good was with respect to Howard. I said good in general. You just added that last part in.

As for Asik he played for 48 games, and averaged 20.2 minutes. If you want to belittle his loss then that's entirely up to you.

6-5 in games with Asik where Howard missed? Well prepare for that number to go down. Way down.

Downplaying the losses the Rockets suffered won't hide the fact that they are now a much weaker team And this is a team that got eliminated easily by the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.


Last edited by -Showtime- on Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Cool426
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:08 pm    Post subject:

jjww28 wrote:

64 and 68 are their appearances in 4th quarter during regular season, not how many games they played.

Lin played 71 games (one game vs hawks starts 4mins then injured), Parson played 74 games during regular season.

http://nbawowy.com/query/nfe3zn4hoh4r6bt9

see above link, during regular season, Lin played 585mins(2054 total), Parsons played 620mins (2783 total) in 4th and OT.

585/(71-1)=8.36mins, 28.5% total mins
620/(74)=8.38mins, 22.2% total mins

All right, my bad, 2nd most 0.02 mins short.

clutch time performance: NetRtg=17.1, TS=60% , very low TO ratio, as 2nd playmarker/scorer , and you are not impressed:)

Lin is not gonna make 6MPOY by taking 9 shots per game.

Back to the point, Lin is a supersub. Now Rockets backup PG is canaan, who is clearly unproven.

Did you really create your own stats? Seriously???
On top of that, they weren't even accurate!

Stop. Grasping. At. Straws!

You made a false statement. Now you are falsifying your own stats to cover up your false statement. You conveniently subtracted one game from Lin, but somehow you forgot to subtract that 4 min. Why is it that you refuse to use 4th Q stats from stats.nba.com? Link
Is it because Lin ranked 3rd in min played?

I bet if I dig further into the stats, the main reason Parsons appeared in less games than Lin was because of blowouts. Which means Lin played in more garbage minutes than Parsons.

I just don't see how anyone can be impressed with Lin's clutch NetRtg when he is ranked 9th on his team of 16 players.

Let me get this straight,

First, you hyped up Lin as supersub. When 110 media personals around the country didn't cast ANY vote on Lin for SMOY, your excuse was Lin didn't shoot enough. I won't even bother since I already know what to expect if I ask you why he did shoot enough.

I am a big fan of Lin but finally understood fully why there are so many haters of Lin. It mostly has nothing to do with the player, nor for who Lin is, but for all the garbage that comes with him.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:56 pm    Post subject:

Cool426 wrote:
jjww28 wrote:

64 and 68 are their appearances in 4th quarter during regular season, not how many games they played.

Lin played 71 games (one game vs hawks starts 4mins then injured), Parson played 74 games during regular season.

http://nbawowy.com/query/nfe3zn4hoh4r6bt9

see above link, during regular season, Lin played 585mins(2054 total), Parsons played 620mins (2783 total) in 4th and OT.

585/(71-1)=8.36mins, 28.5% total mins
620/(74)=8.38mins, 22.2% total mins

All right, my bad, 2nd most 0.02 mins short.

clutch time performance: NetRtg=17.1, TS=60% , very low TO ratio, as 2nd playmarker/scorer , and you are not impressed:)

Lin is not gonna make 6MPOY by taking 9 shots per game.

Back to the point, Lin is a supersub. Now Rockets backup PG is canaan, who is clearly unproven.

Did you really create your own stats? Seriously???
On top of that, they weren't even accurate!

Stop. Grasping. At. Straws!

You made a false statement. Now you are falsifying your own stats to cover up your false statement. You conveniently subtracted one game from Lin, but somehow you forgot to subtract that 4 min. Why is it that you refuse to use 4th Q stats from stats.nba.com? Link
Is it because Lin ranked 3rd in min played?

I bet if I dig further into the stats, the main reason Parsons appeared in less games than Lin was because of blowouts. Which means Lin played in more garbage minutes than Parsons.

I just don't see how anyone can be impressed with Lin's clutch NetRtg when he is ranked 9th on his team of 16 players.

Let me get this straight,

First, you hyped up Lin as supersub. When 110 media personals around the country didn't cast ANY vote on Lin for SMOY, your excuse was Lin didn't shoot enough. I won't even bother since I already know what to expect if I ask you why he did shoot enough.

I am a big fan of Lin but finally understood fully why there are so many haters of Lin. It mostly has nothing to do with the player, nor for who Lin is, but for all the garbage that comes with him.


nba.com and nbawoyo are the same data, just with later one is more convenient (you don't have to add it up youself), and a bit more accuate (without lost decimal data in process).

Well, my point is that Lin is a supersub, he played as much 4th and OT time as anyone, he closed game more often than starting PG. Usually Brooks or Cannan is the 3rd PG at garbage time.

Out of 16 players, only 6 players are regular (clutch time) contributor, Lin's NetRtg rank at 3rd behind Jones and James. The simple fact is that Lin is the 2nd playmaker/scorer at clutch time, and he is efficient. I don't know anyone with right mind can deny that.

I am not saying Lin is 6MOY, I am saying Lin is supersub for Rockets, and they don't really have replacement for it as of now.

Just answer me this simple question, Is Lin a supersub for Rockets?
Yes or No? Let's not waste each other's time.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:28 pm    Post subject:

Caris Levert from UOFM at 19 pick. Book it.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:37 pm    Post subject:

7th seed azz Rockets
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:38 pm    Post subject:

LakeShowSince84 wrote:
Caris Levert from UOFM at 19 pick. Book it.


good eye, i like his game
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:39 pm    Post subject:

i like Sulaimon, the Dukee, as well
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 5:05 am    Post subject:

If you compare next years' Houston to the Howard/Kobe Lakers of two years ago, you should find some similarity. That team barely get into playoff.

1 or 2 extra win or loss will swing result.

As a Lakers fan, I hope the Rockets miss the playoff two years in a row.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 6:03 am    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
How shocked were you when Phoenix missed with 48 wins? Did you experience PTSD? Did you fall over? Were you physically ... ill for some time?


I'm lost on what a team winning 48 games has to do with me saying a team will make the playoffs if they win 50 games. Please explain.


Because 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.

So while you keep bringing up that a 50-win team has never missed the playoffs before, 50 is very close to 48 and we just came off a season where a 48-win team missed the postseason.

All that said, the point is that if one projects a team to get about 50 wins, and we just came off a season where that almost wasn't enough, it doesn't leave much room for error.

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
So if 4 teams had 49 wins last season, all 4 of them would have made the postseason?

Wow, a 12 team Western Conference!


The fact is that 49 wins got you a playoff spot last season. 48 wins did not (in the West). The fact is 50 wins got you a playoff in every season in league history since the league has had the 16 team format.


Are you under the impression that just because 49 wins got you a playoff spot last season, that you automatically qualify for a playoff spot if you get at least 49 wins in the next season? If so, that's not how it works.

How it works is your win/loss record compared to everyone else around you in your conference. The number of wins doesn't really matter. It can be 35, it can be 50, it doesn't matter. It's all relative to those around you. And if it's the same as another team, then, there are various tiebreakers to decide.

Also, many of the teams that didn't get 49 teams last year, wouldn't have made the playoffs even if they had won 49 games so your statement is false. It's not the fact that a team got 49 wins last year that got them to the postseason, it's because 7 other teams in the conference didn't get 49 wins.

At the end of the day, Sun Yue is not the next Magic Johnson, and Houston is not a guarantee to make the playoffs either. I mean, the only people who think Houston is a lock for the postseason are Rockets fans. Is it likely they will? For sure.

But for ANY team that won 54 games last year and made it by 5 games, and lost 3 key rotation players and only replaced 1 of them, the margin for error just got a lot smaller. Would I be absolutely stunned if the Rockets won 54 games again? No. Would I be stunned if they won 52? Nahhh. 50? Nope. 48? Nahh.

How often do you think a team follows up a 50+ win season with fewer than 50 wins in the next? It happens all the time since you like precedence so much.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 6:04 am    Post subject:

I could see this going two ways. Either it'll go really well for HOU, or pretty bad. I could see them really struggle if Dwight/Harden do not play well consistently, and slip to 6th-7th in the West, around 20th in the NBA.

OTOH, I also think Dwight/Harden are right. Watching the playoffs it was clear Parsons and Lin had no real role on the team as Dwight/Harden-centric players. What you need around Dwight/Harden are guys that can catch + shoot, guys that will roll to the the basket, and most importantly guys that will defend. In that case, Ariza is a better fit than Parsons, even though Parsons is the better individual talent on O.

But it will all depend on how their defense goes. Last year they were mediocre and inconsistent on D. Dwight helped them a lot, they went from one of the worst to respectable. However if you have a team of guys who want to score, it becomes more about that than anything else. To me, Lin and Parsons suffered from this. And Asik, he was never happy because he wanted to play big minutes/start and he was now in the Gortat/Orlando role behind Dwight.

Like I said, I could see this go either way. Wouldn't surprise me if HOU fell a bit in the standings, but it wouldn't shock me if this helps HOU, especially on D.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 2:42 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

Because 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.


And? As long as you win 50 you should get in the playoffs. Do you expect a team that wins 50 to not make the playoffs for the first time in league history?

ringfinger wrote:
All that said, the point is that if one projects a team to get about 50 wins, and we just came off a season where that almost wasn't enough, it doesn't leave much room for error.


If one projects a team to win 50 games then they are projecting a playoff bid unless they expect something to happen for the first time EVER.

ringfinger wrote:
Are you under the impression that just because 49 wins got you a playoff spot last season, that you automatically qualify for a playoff spot if you get at least 49 wins in the next season? If so, that's not how it works.


I'm under the impression that a team that wins 50 games will make the playoffs, like every other year in league history. I also think Houston's floor is 50 games. So I expect them to make the playoffs.

ringfinger wrote:
I mean, the only people who think Houston is a lock for the postseason are Rockets fans. Is it likely they will? For sure.


So I I go to Vegas I'll make $$ if I bet on Houston to miss the playoffs instead of making it, since only Houstonian's think its a lock?
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 5:47 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
I'm lost on what a team winning 48 games has to do with me saying a team will make the playoffs if they win 50 games. Please explain.


Because 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.

So while you keep bringing up that a 50-win team has never missed the playoffs before, 50 is very close to 48 and we just came off a season where a 48-win team missed the postseason.


FYI, a team also won 48 games and missed the playoffs in 2008, when the West appeared to be as competitive as it was last season. Again, 50 wins got you in, just like it has in every other season in league history.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2008.html
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 5:56 pm    Post subject:

Sorry to tell you, but the bolded sentence is absolutely false. Check out defensive efficiency.

wolfpaclaker wrote:
I could see this going two ways. Either it'll go really well for HOU, or pretty bad. I could see them really struggle if Dwight/Harden do not play well consistently, and slip to 6th-7th in the West, around 20th in the NBA.

OTOH, I also think Dwight/Harden are right. Watching the playoffs it was clear Parsons and Lin had no real role on the team as Dwight/Harden-centric players. What you need around Dwight/Harden are guys that can catch + shoot, guys that will roll to the the basket, and most importantly guys that will defend. In that case, Ariza is a better fit than Parsons, even though Parsons is the better individual talent on O.

But it will all depend on how their defense goes. Last year they were mediocre and inconsistent on D. Dwight helped them a lot, they went from one of the worst to respectable. However if you have a team of guys who want to score, it becomes more about that than anything else. To me, Lin and Parsons suffered from this. And Asik, he was never happy because he wanted to play big minutes/start and he was now in the Gortat/Orlando role behind Dwight.

Like I said, I could see this go either way. Wouldn't surprise me if HOU fell a bit in the standings, but it wouldn't shock me if this helps HOU, especially on D.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:56 am    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:

Because 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.


And? As long as you win 50 you should get in the playoffs. Do you expect a team that wins 50 to not make the playoffs for the first time in league history?


Ok, NOW we're getting somewhere. I agree. 50 SHOULD get you there. You were saying before that 50 WILL get you there.

And no, I don't expect it but as I've said many times before, I wouldn't be shell shocked if it happened. It's been very close to 50 a number of times in recent years.

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
All that said, the point is that if one projects a team to get about 50 wins, and we just came off a season where that almost wasn't enough, it doesn't leave much room for error.


If one projects a team to win 50 games then they are projecting a playoff bid unless they expect something to happen for the first time EVER.


Not necessarily. The error in your logic is that you're conflating win/loss with playoff eligibility. I already explained how it works. What you're saying would be true if ALL teams that win X games qualify for playoffs. But that's not how it works in this league. 50 wins doesn't get you in just because it did last year and the year before. 50 gets you in if it is better than the record of at least 6 other teams in your conference.

If you believe a team will get around 50 wins, then that team could very easily miss the playoffs if your projection is even slightly off.

Is this making any more sense or is there still confusion here?

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Are you under the impression that just because 49 wins got you a playoff spot last season, that you automatically qualify for a playoff spot if you get at least 49 wins in the next season? If so, that's not how it works.


I'm under the impression that a team that wins 50 games will make the playoffs, like every other year in league history. I also think Houston's floor is 50 games. So I expect them to make the playoffs.


Well, now you're saying will again. 50 wins should be enough. But it might not be. And if it doesn't prove to be enough for any team, it wouldn't really shock anyone who follows this game because we just came off a season where, had the Utah Jazz won 49 games, they would have missed the playoffs.

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
I mean, the only people who think Houston is a lock for the postseason are Rockets fans. Is it likely they will? For sure.


So I I go to Vegas I'll make $$ if I bet on Houston to miss the playoffs instead of making it, since only Houstonian's think its a lock?


What? That makes no sense. Ok, now you're just getting irrational. What Houstonian's think has no bearing on whether you'd win a bet.

If you bet $$ on Houston to miss the playoffs, you'll probably win some money. Heck, even I would bet that they would make it.

But would I think only an act of God could prevent them from making it? Not at all. They only won 54 games last year and their roster is worse. Let's just say I'd bet that the Rockets will make the playoffs but I wouldn't bet a ton of money on it. Too much risk for that.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:57 am    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
I'm lost on what a team winning 48 games has to do with me saying a team will make the playoffs if they win 50 games. Please explain.


Because 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.

So while you keep bringing up that a 50-win team has never missed the playoffs before, 50 is very close to 48 and we just came off a season where a 48-win team missed the postseason.


FYI, a team also won 48 games and missed the playoffs in 2008, when the West appeared to be as competitive as it was last season. Again, 50 wins got you in, just like it has in every other season in league history.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2008.html


Thanks, but that changes nothing about what I said which is that 48 wins is the most number of wins for any non-playoff team ever.

I appreciate your Rockets passion though.
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Dreamshake
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:14 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Ok, NOW we're getting somewhere. I agree. 50 SHOULD get you there. You were saying before that 50 WILL get you there.


I am saying 50 WILL get you there, just like it has every year in league history.

ringfinger wrote:
Not necessarily. The error in your logic is that you're conflating win/loss with playoff eligibility.


Because a team that gets 50 wins has always been playoff eligible.

ringfinger wrote:
I already explained how it works. What you're saying would be true if ALL teams that win X games qualify for playoffs.


All teams that have won 50 games have qualified for the playoffs in league history.

ringfinger wrote:
But that's not how it works in this league. 50 wins doesn't get you in just because it did last year and the year before. 50 gets you in if it is better than the record of at least 6 other teams in your conference.


There is no error. 50 wins has historically been better than the record of every team in the conference but 7, guaranteeing a playoff birth. This is a factual trend that has held without exception.

ringfinger wrote:
If you believe a team will get around 50 wins, then that team could very easily miss the playoffs if your projection is even slightly off.


A team could very easily make the playoffs with 38 wins in the West if teams lose games like they did in the East, but that would not be a reasonable projection. Saying a team that wins 50 games will miss the playoffs when it has never happened in league history is not a reasonable projection. Saying a team that wins 50 games will make the playoffs is a reasonable projection based on it happening 100% of the time in league history. Not that complex.

ringfinger wrote:
Is this making any more sense or is there still confusion here?


There is no confusion. I don't expect something that has never happened before to happen. Do you expect a historical trend to break? It's beyond reasonable to say the trend of winning 50 games equating to a playoff birth will hold true.

ringfinger wrote:
Well, now you're saying will again. 50 wins should be enough. But it might not be.


It has every year in league history. Why will it not be this year?

ringfinger wrote:
And if it doesn't prove to be enough for any team, it wouldn't really shock anyone who follows this game because we just came off a season where, had the Utah Jazz won 49 games, they would have missed the playoffs.


I would be extremely shocked in a team wins 50 games and fails to make the playoffs for the first time in league history. There have been prior seasons where a team would have missed the playoffs with 49 wins (2008). The team that won 50 did make the playoffs that season, just like in every NBA season.

ringfinger wrote:
What? That makes no sense. Ok, now you're just getting irrational. What Houstonian's think has no bearing on whether you'd win a bet.


It makes perfect sense. You claim that only Houstonian's will be shocked if Houston misses the playoffs. If that were true, then I should be able to go to Vegas and make money betting for Houston to make the playoffs. Ya know Vegas...the folks who make $$ based on sports predictions?
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ice_cold
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 03, 2014 12:41 pm    Post subject:

mhan00 wrote:
silkwilkes wrote:
I thought it was only top 10 protected, not lottery protected.


Lottery protected the first year, top ten protected the next two years. Money was at least smart enough to add in the protections to cover himself in case of catastrophic events, even though they had little expectation of it happening.


Found out more about the backend of the deal today, and it's pretty interesting. If it's been posted already in thread, apologies!

"To get the Lakers to take on the final season of Lin's contract and its roughly $15 million salary, the Rockets also will send their first-round pick next season, unless it falls into the lottery. If they don't send the pick next season, it will be protected through 10 picks for two seasons. If they still have not sent the pick, it will be protected through five picks for two seasons."

Howard's contract is up in 2016, and Harden's in 2017. If Houston's pick hasn't been sent yet, it is only protected through five picks in 2018 and 2019.
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