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topfive
Sixth Man
Joined: 05 May 2009
Posts: 28
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 Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold. 
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster.  As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| topfive wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold.
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster. As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
Yeah, but if you apply that criteria to the Lakers, an injury to Kobe would devestate us too. And Kobe's recent injury history is more staggering than Chandler's. Dallas is going to find a vet big to round out the roster. That much is certain.
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Telleris
Star Player
Joined: 28 May 2013
Posts: 2371
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| Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold.
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster. As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
Yeah, but if you apply that criteria to the Lakers, an injury to Kobe would devestate us too. And Kobe's recent injury history is more staggering than Chandler's. Dallas is going to find a vet big to round out the roster. That much is certain. |
That's not really true,. Kobe had a couple freak accidents, whereas Chandler has had degenerative issues. His game (or lack thereof) was probably the largest contributor to NY's horrible year, that with JR being JR and how unbelievably awful Felton is at everything. Phil flat out swindled Dallas, to get rid of the shell of Chandler, Felton and get stuff back? |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:53 am Post subject: |
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| Telleris wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold.
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster. As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
Yeah, but if you apply that criteria to the Lakers, an injury to Kobe would devestate us too. And Kobe's recent injury history is more staggering than Chandler's. Dallas is going to find a vet big to round out the roster. That much is certain. |
That's not really true,. Kobe had a couple freak accidents, whereas Chandler has had degenerative issues. His game (or lack thereof) was probably the largest contributor to NY's horrible year, that with JR being JR and how unbelievably awful Felton is at everything. Phil flat out swindled Dallas, to get rid of the shell of Chandler, Felton and get stuff back? |
Well, Kobe has a degenerative issue of sorts. Age and miles. I know what you're saying about "freak accidents" but those things are generally more likely to occur with age and wear/tear. And then when they do, the impact is generally more severe. And this is especially true with an achilles tear. There's almost no way Kobe will play in all 82 games so the question will be ... how many can he participate in? |
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K0BEE 2.0
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 May 2013
Posts: 10949
Location: I wish I knew
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:38 am Post subject: |
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Right now we are most likely a 7th seed team in the west if we get bledsoe we will jump to 4th or 5th.
we just need to stay healthy. |
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dabask11
Star Player
Joined: 27 Dec 2012
Posts: 1989
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:00 am Post subject: |
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| K0BEE 2.0 wrote: | Right now we are most likely a 7th seed team in the west if we get bledsoe we will jump to 4th or 5th.
we just need to stay healthy. |
On paper, we are not a 7th seed team unless we get bledsoe. |
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sonic the laker
Star Player
Joined: 06 Oct 2013
Posts: 2063
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:06 am Post subject: |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | Telleris wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold.
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster. As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
Yeah, but if you apply that criteria to the Lakers, an injury to Kobe would devestate us too. And Kobe's recent injury history is more staggering than Chandler's. Dallas is going to find a vet big to round out the roster. That much is certain. |
That's not really true,. Kobe had a couple freak accidents, whereas Chandler has had degenerative issues. His game (or lack thereof) was probably the largest contributor to NY's horrible year, that with JR being JR and how unbelievably awful Felton is at everything. Phil flat out swindled Dallas, to get rid of the shell of Chandler, Felton and get stuff back? |
Well, Kobe has a degenerative issue of sorts. Age and miles. I know what you're saying about "freak accidents" but those things are generally more likely to occur with age and wear/tear. And then when they do, the impact is generally more severe. And this is especially true with an achilles tear. There's almost no way Kobe will play in all 82 games so the question will be ... how many can he participate in? |
Granted, Kobe has age/miles on his tally as a basketball player. Everyone acknowledges this fact, even Kobe himself. Also, everyone knows that Kobe won't be the same player he was before. But, that doesn't mean he'll be a worse player. Just different.
Also, while I believe Kobe's minutes will/should be reduced, I don't think that means that he won't be able to play the entire season...barring injury/sickness of course.
Seeing what we had to work with in the off-season, I like our team, and I like our chances. I'm hopeful for a return the playoffs, and surprising some people. Lakers!
ZOOM! |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:12 am Post subject: |
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Reading Kobe's thoughts in that SI article about adapting, seeing how lakers brought Scott to be the voice to tell Kobe to take it easy I think Kobe wi rely be pacing himself this year. He will probably play in the low 30 mpg and take nights off. That's why we have a bunch of combo wings (X, young, clarkson, Wes, and Lin). That is certainly a good thing.
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DJ Slik
Starting Rotation
Joined: 11 Jul 2014
Posts: 432
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:44 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Reading Kobe's thoughts in that SI article about adapting, seeing how lakers brought Scott to be the voice to tell Kobe to take it easy I think Kobe wi rely be pacing himself this year. He will probably play in the low 30 mpg and take nights off. That's why we have a bunch of combo wings (X, young, clarkson, Wes, and Lin). That is certainly a good thing. |
kobe absolutely needs to get the duncan treatment this year. early nights in blow outs and back to backs. play him when it counts. if the lakers are making the playoffs it will most likely be a final month chase and we'll need him for then. |
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ringfinger
Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| sonic the laker wrote: | Granted, Kobe has age/miles on his tally as a basketball player. Everyone acknowledges this fact, even Kobe himself. Also, everyone knows that Kobe won't be the same player he was before. But, that doesn't mean he'll be a worse player. Just different.
Also, while I believe Kobe's minutes will/should be reduced, I don't think that means that he won't be able to play the entire season...barring injury/sickness of course.
Seeing what we had to work with in the off-season, I like our team, and I like our chances. I'm hopeful for a return the playoffs, and surprising some people. Lakers!
ZOOM! |
Well, I think it's a foregone conclusion at this point that Kobe's going to be a worse player. He'll play fewer minutes and be 2 years older than when he last played, and will still be limited by the achilles tear.
No NBA player has suffered a torn achilles and scored over 20PPG at the age of 35, let alone 36. Now if anyone is going to accomplish that feat it may be Kobe but it won't be by much. He just won't get the playing time to be as good or better than before. Thus, he will be worse but just a matter of how much and let's hope it's not by too much. |
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jlim7
Rookie
Joined: 24 Jul 2014
Posts: 3
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:02 am Post subject: |
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| stewjoe wrote: |
But you should be aware that there are some serious flaws with this analysis:
1) It equates a turnover with a missed shot in that it attempts to say that his excessive turnovers are balanced by the fact that fewer shots are missed on his assists. However, a turnover is clearly worse than a missed shot in that it eliminates the opportunity for an offensive rebound and also generally reduces the ability of the defense to get back in transition.
2) It is not particularly effective in measuring individual performance as it relies on the performance of others, i.e. how well they convert an opportunity to score from your pass. In that sense, it is like RBI in baseball.
3) If you run this Assist Efficiency number for last season, the top-10 is:
Andre Igoudala
Jeremy Lin
Devin Harris
Chandler parsons
Manu Ginobili
Lou Williams
Mario Chalmers
Ray Felton
Tyreke Evans
Kendall Marshall
Looking at that group, my question is, how valuable is that as a metric? Does it reflect that those 10 players are the best passers in the league? Most efficient?
Are you saying Lin is a top 3 point guard in the league? Top 5? Top 10?
Should we lock him up to a max extension now because the entire league doesn't realize how great he is, particularly Morey who actually paid us to take him or McHale who sat him behind Beverly?
Again, I am not saying he doesn't have a solid role in the league, but are you saying he is actually elite? |
Your comment number 2 is also true for Assist / turnover ratio. So, if comment number 2 dismiss AE, it will also dismiss Assist / TO. I am not saying I am an AE supporter, because I still need to learn more about this ratio.
By the way, how do you get the data for the top 10 Assist Efficiency? |
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LHQ
Starting Rotation
Joined: 26 Jun 2005
Posts: 611
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:38 am Post subject: |
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I'm not a Lakers fans, and I do think you peeps have a chance at the 6th-8th.
Only problem is that it depends on other teams screwing up (or some really bad luck) rather than in this Lakers squad overachieving.
But that it is possible, is possible.
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pio2u
Retired Number
Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 54571
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| sonic the laker wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | Telleris wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | topfive wrote: | Longtime fan of both the Rockets and Lakers. Grew up in Houston, but have been in LA most of the last 25 years. That said, I'm more ketchup and mustard than purple and gold.
I think the Lakers will make the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy. He could drag nearly any lineup into the playoffs if he plays 70 games or more. I see holes in the lineup that some of you don't seem to notice, though. If Nash somehow stays healthy, the Lakers are a lock. You don't want to count on Lin as your starting PG. Before anyone flames me, I've watched Lin play more about 170 games over the last two years (counting pre-season and playoffs) and am pretty well qualified to make such a judgement. As a backup to Nash, he'd be a huge asset. My fear for Jeremy is that he's going to shrink when Kobe starts making those thinly veiled comments in interviews about some of the players needing to be more consistent, etc. From what I've seen of Lin, he needs total support around him to play at his best. Even in NYC, he played out of his mind until the Carmelo backlash started coming to light, then he tailed off dramatically. I wanted to believe in Lin as a starting-quality PG, but every time he takes a step forward, he follows it up with a step back.
Anyway, assuming Kobe and Nash stay healthy, the Lakers are in. Over which team, though? My pick is the Mavs. Tyson Chandler is good for 50-60 games, then their backup center is Greg Smith. Think about that: That's 20 or 30 games with Smith and Dirk as the two guys in charge of stopping the opposition's frontcourt. They will be eaten alive. Defensively, once you get past Tyson Chandler, the other starters are mediocre to awful defensively: Dirk, Ellis, Parsons, Felton/Nelson. They'll have to average 110 points a game to stay over .500. |
Not sure why you have Dallas dropping out. I have them competing for the 4-6 range. They're much improved. I can see them picking up Emeka Okafor, J.O'Neal or Elton Brand to bolster their size. They've improved with Parsons and Nelson/Fat Felton should suffice. |
I'm not really good at predicting the success of teams with players they might possibly sign who are not currently on their roster. As presently constituted, the Mavs will have a difficult time stopping anyone's big men when Chandler is out of the game. Everyone knows how bad Dirk and Ellis are defensively, and trust me, Parsons is only a notch above them. An injury to Chandler (not unlikely, given his history) would devastate them. |
Yeah, but if you apply that criteria to the Lakers, an injury to Kobe would devestate us too. And Kobe's recent injury history is more staggering than Chandler's. Dallas is going to find a vet big to round out the roster. That much is certain. |
That's not really true,. Kobe had a couple freak accidents, whereas Chandler has had degenerative issues. His game (or lack thereof) was probably the largest contributor to NY's horrible year, that with JR being JR and how unbelievably awful Felton is at everything. Phil flat out swindled Dallas, to get rid of the shell of Chandler, Felton and get stuff back? |
Well, Kobe has a degenerative issue of sorts. Age and miles. I know what you're saying about "freak accidents" but those things are generally more likely to occur with age and wear/tear. And then when they do, the impact is generally more severe. And this is especially true with an achilles tear. There's almost no way Kobe will play in all 82 games so the question will be ... how many can he participate in? |
Granted, Kobe has age/miles on his tally as a basketball player. Everyone acknowledges this fact, even Kobe himself. Also, everyone knows that Kobe won't be the same player he was before. But, that doesn't mean he'll be a worse player. Just different.
Also, while I believe Kobe's minutes will/should be reduced, I don't think that means that he won't be able to play the entire season...barring injury/sickness of course.
Seeing what we had to work with in the off-season, I like our team, and I like our chances. I'm hopeful for a return the playoffs, and surprising some people. Lakers!
ZOOM! |
I'm hopeful too but it's going to be an uphill climb all the way. However after last season it is at least good to see that we will be more competitive.
If we take it one game at a time, I think, we at least have a sluggers chance at making the play-offs.  |
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yinoma2001
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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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OP you had me at "overthrone."
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Thugnomoe
Franchise Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 14660
Location: unfortunately not Los Angeles anymore
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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minnesota will be really good in a few years but not now.
Nuggets could always surprise someone..
but yeah.. Houston definitely got worse.
and it would be amazing for us to knock them out. |
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pio2u
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Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 54571
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:37 am Post subject: |
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| Thugnomoe wrote: | minnesota will be really good in a few years but not now.
Nuggets could always surprise someone..
but yeah.. Houston definitely got worse.
and it would be amazing for us to knock them out. |
Houston is trying to acquire Ramon Sessions, which would be a nice pick-up for them. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:38 am Post subject: |
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Has any NBA-media folks selected the Lakers as a playoff team? I'm just curious. I can't think of any sources, even local to LA, that have done so.
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pio2u
Retired Number
Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 54571
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Has any NBA-media folks selected the Lakers as a playoff team? I'm just curious. I can't think of any sources, even local to LA, that have done so. |
Neither can I; obviously if we somehow make the playoffs it will shock the world! |
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stewjoe
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 Dec 2013
Posts: 105
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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| jlim7 wrote: | | stewjoe wrote: |
But you should be aware that there are some serious flaws with this analysis:
1) It equates a turnover with a missed shot in that it attempts to say that his excessive turnovers are balanced by the fact that fewer shots are missed on his assists. However, a turnover is clearly worse than a missed shot in that it eliminates the opportunity for an offensive rebound and also generally reduces the ability of the defense to get back in transition.
2) It is not particularly effective in measuring individual performance as it relies on the performance of others, i.e. how well they convert an opportunity to score from your pass. In that sense, it is like RBI in baseball.
3) If you run this Assist Efficiency number for last season, the top-10 is:
Andre Igoudala
Jeremy Lin
Devin Harris
Chandler parsons
Manu Ginobili
Lou Williams
Mario Chalmers
Ray Felton
Tyreke Evans
Kendall Marshall
Looking at that group, my question is, how valuable is that as a metric? Does it reflect that those 10 players are the best passers in the league? Most efficient?
Are you saying Lin is a top 3 point guard in the league? Top 5? Top 10?
Should we lock him up to a max extension now because the entire league doesn't realize how great he is, particularly Morey who actually paid us to take him or McHale who sat him behind Beverly?
Again, I am not saying he doesn't have a solid role in the league, but are you saying he is actually elite? |
Your comment number 2 is also true for Assist / turnover ratio. So, if comment number 2 dismiss AE, it will also dismiss Assist / TO. I am not saying I am an AE supporter, because I still need to learn more about this ratio.
By the way, how do you get the data for the top 10 Assist Efficiency? |
Agree on the fact that assist to turnover is imperfect as well. The problem is basketball is not nearly as individual a sport as baseball and not nearly as compartmentalized. To measure something with that many moving parts is hard. So you need to use a bunch of metrics. Any time you use assists, it is going to be dependent on how well your teammates convert. Same with assist opportunities. Turnovers are a little easier, but I am sure that playing with Kwame will result in a lot more than playing with Pau. The newer advanced metrics are good, but one of the things I like to do is to run them and see if
the results show obvious bias. For example, when Brandan Wright is a top-15 player in PER, it shows that the formula relies too heavily on shooting percentage to be the sole determination as to whether one player is better than another.
As for Assist Efficiency, I couldn't find it listed anywhere as an official statistic, so I just made a spreadsheet to calculate it using the sportvu numbers on NBA.com. |
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lakerican
Star Player
Joined: 09 May 2005
Posts: 3786
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| Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:53 am Post subject: |
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I am in the optimistic side. I think we can get 6-7-8 seed. First of all, this team will not be the classic team with 3 stars or 2 mega all stars contender, you all know tha,t but will be in the other side of the spectrum, a large rotation 11, maybe 12 players in a game basis being Swappy P and Jlin playing the more minutes @ around 30 minutes. I envision a very good team defense, a lot of pick & rolls, a little of Princeton in offense and a balance scoring. Being in almost every game and pulling a lot of last second wins; we still have the best in that, the Mamba.
The atrocious & anemic East will not repeat that tanking performance again in some years. In the same token the West will lose overall many more games this coming year so the 50 game 8th seed time will also come to an end.
I like our chances. I like hearing our guys heavily practicing, I like having a coach with a an idea in place of what to achieve to get us in the right direction. i like Kobe having a training camp with all the guys.
Go Lakesr! |
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70sdude
Star Player
Joined: 05 Feb 2009
Posts: 4567
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| Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:34 am Post subject: |
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| I have a sustaining hope for, but not current optimism for, the chances for next Spring's Laker record to be good enough to put them in contention for a playoff position. I'll be watching game action from time to time, in hopes of seeing increasing signs of this club moving out of a free fall. Fingers crossed. |
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yinoma2001
Retired Number
Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 119487
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| Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:39 am Post subject: |
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| 70sdude wrote: | | I have a sustaining hope for, but not current optimism for, the chances for next Spring's Laker record to be good enough to put them in contention for a playoff position. I'll be watching game action from time to time, in hopes of seeing increasing signs of this club moving out of a free fall. Fingers crossed. |
I think they will be within 5-6 games out of the 8th spot going into March/April, assuming Kobe's healthy and Randle and co. ball out. It'll take a major push to get into the 8th seed but I think this team loiters around 8-10 territory if all things go right (health wise).
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From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals |
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