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Car54 Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2005 Posts: 14424
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:19 am Post subject: Re: Will the Lakers be a good three point shooting team? |
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kray28_ wrote: | I recently read this blurb that the Lakers lost 4 of their top 5 three point shooters. That might not mean much since we're in transition from D'Antoni ball, but it got me thinking if we have enough three point shooting on the team as is.
Who we could expect to shoot threes?
1. Kobe - I don't expect him to shoot many threes. Okay three point shooter.
2. Nick - Very good three point shooter, but tends to be a subpar catch and shoot three point shooter.
3. Lin - good three point shooter, but again, it's not something that's his strength
4. Nash - probably the best three point shooter on the team, if he's healthy, and he won't be.
5. Xavier - not a good three pt shooter
6. Wes - bad shooter period
7. Clarkson - he can shoot from what we've seen early on, but will be even see the court?
So what do you think? Maybe this is a team that could benefit from shooting threes less to begin with....but does it have enough to get by? |
Wes shot 37% how is he a bad 3 pt shooter? _________________ Coach Vogel, Kidd, Hollins
Max slot : Kawhi |
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Cutheon Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Jul 2009 Posts: 12187 Location: Bay Area
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:21 am Post subject: |
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No. |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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Rawr wrote: | If Lin, Young, and Johnson are getting open looks, they should all be in the high 30's for 3p%. They've all shown they get hit at those rates on catch and shoots, so it depends on how well we execute on offense. I mention those guys because those 3 will be getting the bulk of the off the ball catch and shoot minutes. |
Young doesn't want open looks. It's more difficult to make Sportscenter and Shaqtin' a Fool that way. |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: Will the Lakers be a good three point shooting team? |
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Car54 wrote: | kray28_ wrote: | I recently read this blurb that the Lakers lost 4 of their top 5 three point shooters. That might not mean much since we're in transition from D'Antoni ball, but it got me thinking if we have enough three point shooting on the team as is.
Who we could expect to shoot threes?
1. Kobe - I don't expect him to shoot many threes. Okay three point shooter.
2. Nick - Very good three point shooter, but tends to be a subpar catch and shoot three point shooter.
3. Lin - good three point shooter, but again, it's not something that's his strength
4. Nash - probably the best three point shooter on the team, if he's healthy, and he won't be.
5. Xavier - not a good three pt shooter
6. Wes - bad shooter period
7. Clarkson - he can shoot from what we've seen early on, but will be even see the court?
So what do you think? Maybe this is a team that could benefit from shooting threes less to begin with....but does it have enough to get by? |
Wes shot 37% how is he a bad 3 pt shooter? |
Post-MDA inflation let's see what he shoots. Only in his rookie season, which was considered a bust, was he close to last year's percentage. |
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a2j1m Star Player
Joined: 06 May 2013 Posts: 3734
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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Idc. I don't want to live by it anyways, we are decent enough though so that's good |
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nevitt_smrek Star Player
Joined: 15 Jun 2009 Posts: 2803
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Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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Let's hope Byron has the team focused on rebounding. Each of the last five Laker title teams were top 2 in the league during those years. _________________ Smrek 2, Nevitt 1, Barkley 0 |
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Goldenwest Star Player
Joined: 28 Nov 2009 Posts: 2805
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Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:38 pm Post subject: |
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As long as Kobe is on the floor with Lin and the others (maybe even Nash??)....
....I don't see a problem with offense (including three point shooting - we'll be at least ok in that department), its the rebounding and D that concerns me. |
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scoobs Star Player
Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 4746
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:13 am Post subject: |
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Ellington kind of reminds me of a Jodie Meeks/OJ Mayo. If he plays good defense, I could see him getting 20-25 minutes. He is a good three point shooter. |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:04 am Post subject: |
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Lakerpark wrote: | What about Ryan Kelly? He can shoot threes... |
Kelly should be added to the list of 3-pt shooters for sure.... and then there is Wayne Ellington who is an even better 3-pt shooter...
Add these TWO players to the list and you've got a pretty darn good 3-pt shooting team actually: Nash, Nick, Lin, Ellington, Wes, Kobe, Kelly, Xavier, Clarkson gives the Lakers at least NINE very good to at the very minimum clearly above average 3-pt shooters.... Scott should be very happy with this roster in regards to 3-pt shooting.... _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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ringfinger Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 29418
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:43 am Post subject: |
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LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | Lakerpark wrote: | What about Ryan Kelly? He can shoot threes... |
Kelly should be added to the list of 3-pt shooters for sure.... and then there is Wayne Ellington who is an even better 3-pt shooter...
Add these TWO players to the list and you've got a pretty darn good 3-pt shooting team actually: Nash, Nick, Lin, Ellington, Wes, Kobe, Kelly, Xavier, Clarkson gives the Lakers at least NINE very good to at the very minimum clearly above average 3-pt shooters.... Scott should be very happy with this roster in regards to 3-pt shooting.... |
We'll be an average 3pt shooting team at best. For three reasons. No inside post presence to sag in the defense, no elite PG to consistently break down the defense and marginal 3pt shooters on this team.
Plus, from a 3pt shooting perspective, the Lakers have only been above the league average in 3pt shooting twice. Once was last season with MDA, and the other was in a season when we had 3 pt specialists in Vlad Rad, Sasha Vujacic and Derek Fisher.
We don't have the inside presence to sag in the defense to "elevate" players' 3pt shooting percentages, nor the elite guard that can consistently break down the defense through dribble penetration to draw in outside defenders. If you don't have those things, then you'll need to have a myriad of 3pt specialists which we don't have since we lost some of those guys in the offseason (i.e. Meeks, Farmar)
Having said all of that, we do have some guys that can shoot the rock from deep so I see us as a team finishing in top part of the bottom half in terms of 3pt shooting efficiency (somewhere around 16-20).
Only on a Lakers fan forum would Xavier Henry ever be labeled as a "very good" to "above average at minimum" 3pt shooter when he has a career 32.5% efficiency from there. Just curious for any stat geeks. Has any "good" 3pt shooter ever shot in the 60-percent range from the FT line? |
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deal Franchise Player
Joined: 17 Aug 2008 Posts: 14915 Location: Earth
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:07 am Post subject: |
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In response to the OP's original question; I do think the Lakers can be "good" not "great" from three point range. That said, if healthy, Lakers could be very good from mid range, put backs, P&R's, FT's, etc. it all adds up.
We'll see.... |
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Telleris Star Player
Joined: 28 May 2013 Posts: 2371
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:08 am Post subject: |
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ringfinger wrote: | LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | Lakerpark wrote: | What about Ryan Kelly? He can shoot threes... |
Kelly should be added to the list of 3-pt shooters for sure.... and then there is Wayne Ellington who is an even better 3-pt shooter...
Add these TWO players to the list and you've got a pretty darn good 3-pt shooting team actually: Nash, Nick, Lin, Ellington, Wes, Kobe, Kelly, Xavier, Clarkson gives the Lakers at least NINE very good to at the very minimum clearly above average 3-pt shooters.... Scott should be very happy with this roster in regards to 3-pt shooting.... |
We'll be an average 3pt shooting team at best. For three reasons. No inside post presence to sag in the defense, no elite PG to consistently break down the defense and marginal 3pt shooters on this team.
Plus, from a 3pt shooting perspective, the Lakers have only been above the league average in 3pt shooting twice. Once was last season with MDA, and the other was in a season when we had 3 pt specialists in Vlad Rad, Sasha Vujacic and Derek Fisher.
We don't have the inside presence to sag in the defense to "elevate" players' 3pt shooting percentages, nor the elite guard that can consistently break down the defense through dribble penetration to draw in outside defenders. If you don't have those things, then you'll need to have a myriad of 3pt specialists which we don't have since we lost some of those guys in the offseason (i.e. Meeks, Farmar)
Having said all of that, we do have some guys that can shoot the rock from deep so I see us as a team finishing in top part of the bottom half in terms of 3pt shooting efficiency (somewhere around 16-20).
Only on a Lakers fan forum would Xavier Henry ever be labeled as a "very good" to "above average at minimum" 3pt shooter when he has a career 32.5% efficiency from there. Just curious for any stat geeks. Has any "good" 3pt shooter ever shot in the 60-percent range from the FT line? |
bruce lee bowen career average was 39% from 3 and 57% on FTs, 2002-3 was his crowning glory, 44% from 3 (league best) and 40% from the line (was it the league worst?). _________________ I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong |
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DimesnD Starting Rotation
Joined: 14 Feb 2009 Posts: 944
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 9:57 am Post subject: |
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A more important question would be. "will the Lakers be an adequate defensive team?" Even without elite athleticism, a willingness to make multiple effort like SA will come a long way. One thing that will hurt them is Kobe. He only makes multiple effort when the game is important, and noone can ever say anyhting about it.
It's gonna be difficult for B Scott to tell his boys to hustle all the time, except for Kobe. |
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MJST Retired Number
Joined: 06 Jul 2014 Posts: 26416
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:56 am Post subject: |
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DimesnD wrote: | 3-pt shooting is not something this team has a green light on outside of Kobe. If someone does something wrong like shoot an errant 3 outside of the called play, Scott will shut him down so fast.... again except for kobe.
Because of the discipline, they should be a pretty efficient 3-pt shooting team. Also, I expect see Kobe in the post more this year since the bigs Boozer (midrange) Davis, Hill (garbage) don't have the skills. Randle when he get weened in up will be that option. |
Don't for one second think Scott is intimidated by Kobe.
He and Kobe will butt heads occasionally.
Anyway, the Princeton offense is based around the principle that if you get the open shot you take it unless there's a higher percentage shot from someone else even more open. Shooting with confidence will be encouraged once you move the defense.
Now 'breaking outside of the offense' to do your own thing is something Kobe will be allowed to do and others may not have the liberty to do, but if they have an open three they'll be allowed to take it.
The thing is the Princeton will try to find them from mid about as much as it will try to find them from three particularly with the high screen and roll Princeton sets he likes to run which did wonders for Ellington. |
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Wilkes52 Star Player
Joined: 02 Jun 2009 Posts: 2415 Location: Far from home
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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DimesnD wrote: | 3-pt shooting is not something this team has a green light on outside of Kobe. If someone does something wrong like shoot an errant 3 outside of the called play, Scott will shut him down so fast.... again except for kobe.
Because of the discipline, they should be a pretty efficient 3-pt shooting team. Also, I expect see Kobe in the post more this year since the bigs Boozer (midrange) Davis, Hill (garbage) don't have the skills. Randle when he get weened in up will be that option. |
I anticipate a different trend for Kobe. I think that Kobe will be more like Jordan than less, as his career winds down, such that like MJ, his three point attempts will represent an increased proportion of his shot attempts, not a reduced one. It gets worse too - his conversion rate trends down, well below his current career average (.335):
KB24, 3P%, 2010-2014
2014: .188
2013: .324
2012: .303
2011: .323
2010: .329 |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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ringfinger wrote: | LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: | Lakerpark wrote: | What about Ryan Kelly? He can shoot threes... |
Kelly should be added to the list of 3-pt shooters for sure.... and then there is Wayne Ellington who is an even better 3-pt shooter...
Add these TWO players to the list and you've got a pretty darn good 3-pt shooting team actually: Nash, Nick, Lin, Ellington, Wes, Kobe, Kelly, Xavier, Clarkson gives the Lakers at least NINE very good to at the very minimum clearly above average 3-pt shooters.... Scott should be very happy with this roster in regards to 3-pt shooting.... |
We'll be an average 3pt shooting team at best. For three reasons. No inside post presence to sag in the defense, no elite PG to consistently break down the defense and marginal 3pt shooters on this team.
Plus, from a 3pt shooting perspective, the Lakers have only been above the league average in 3pt shooting twice. Once was last season with MDA, and the other was in a season when we had 3 pt specialists in Vlad Rad, Sasha Vujacic and Derek Fisher.
We don't have the inside presence to sag in the defense to "elevate" players' 3pt shooting percentages, nor the elite guard that can consistently break down the defense through dribble penetration to draw in outside defenders. If you don't have those things, then you'll need to have a myriad of 3pt specialists which we don't have since we lost some of those guys in the offseason (i.e. Meeks, Farmar)
Having said all of that, we do have some guys that can shoot the rock from deep so I see us as a team finishing in top part of the bottom half in terms of 3pt shooting efficiency (somewhere around 16-20).
Only on a Lakers fan forum would Xavier Henry ever be labeled as a "very good" to "above average at minimum" 3pt shooter when he has a career 32.5% efficiency from there. Just curious for any stat geeks. Has any "good" 3pt shooter ever shot in the 60-percent range from the FT line? |
First of all, you've said the Lakers were an "above average" 3-pt shooting team last year with MDA...
Fact is the Lakers ranked 3rd in the NBA beyond the arc representing just one of the three teams in the league that shot 3-pointers above 38%.... That is far better than just "above average"....
.... the difference in 3 pt shooting between last years team and this years isn't that much difference.... Yes the Lakers lost Farmar and Meeks but that said keep in mind the Lakers have added Lin, Ellington (who shot 39% and 42% respectively beyond the arc last year) as well as Clarkson who's been very impressive.... so I don't see much drop-off if any at all from last years club compared to this year in regards to 3-pt shooting talent to be honest... and keep in mind last years team shot the 3rd highest percentage in the league last year.... The ability to shoot 3's remains basically intact.... so it essentially all comes down to your remaining analysis.....
You've mentioned 3 reasons (bolded above) why the Lakers will not be an above average 3-pt shooting team (even though last year they were essentially "elite" 3pt shooters and not much has really changed overall):
1) No inside post presence to sag in the defense.
The Lakers essentially lost Gasol as far as this point is concerned.... What the Lakers have gained compared to last year is Boozer.... I think we can agree that Boozer is a player that can make an impact in the post.... What one can debate that Gasol might have over Boozer in regards to footwork Boozer clearly makes up for as far as a huge advantage Boozer has regarding "toughness" in the key.... I don't really see that much of a drop-off if any in the key.... and then consider the fact Gasol amounts to virtually all that the Lakers lost in this department compared to last year and on the other hand the Lakers have not only retained Hill who can certainly post-up but also added two players to the roster who can also post-up as well that being Ed Davis LINK and LINK - Scout report QUOTE: "...lefty post player who shows a great deal of potential due to his length, athleticism and skill level … An underrated athlete who has very “live” legs and a high motor … Has a great feel for playing in the post offensively, with crafty fakes and up and under moves." (included links because I figured I might get an argument and still probably will ) and finally also the Lakers added Julius Randle who can undoubtedly post up LINK.... So we have Gasol leaving but then THREE NEW players arriving that can all POST-UP very well of which an argument can be made based on the fact that last years team was NOT really that much of a post-up team in the first place THIS team is actually arguably more talented in this area than last years team....
2) No elite PG to consistently break down the defense.
So what did the Lakers lose at the PG position? Farmar and that's about it, RIGHT? So where is the big drop-off at the PG position considering the Lakers have signed Lin?
3) Marginal 3pt shooters on this team.
Actually the talent from beyond the arc remains with this club just as the talent existed with last years team.... Again, the Lakers lost Farmar and Meeks essentially as far as 3-pt shooting is concerned yet gained Lin and Ellington (both capable of 40% beyond the arc) as well as adding the very impressive Clarkson so I don't see much of a drop-off in 3-pt shooting talent over all compared to last years club who was 3rd best in the league in 3pt shooting percentage.... Consider Ellington is already spoken of in terms of a player in the mold of Meeks and we all know how Lin can get it done beyond the arc....
.... Point being, last years team didn't have that much of what your saying is required for a 3pt shooting team considering last years team was not any more of a post team last year as it will be this year (arguably better this year actually overall) and last years team didn't have the PG to "break down the defense" as you put it even nearly as much as this years team will be able to accomplish in this regard, especially considering that both Nash and Farmar were injured most of the time last year. So if last year's team can be a top-3 shooting team beyond the arc LINK there is really no reason this team cannot do exceptionally well beyond the arc as well....
So that seems to essentially address the relevance of your 3 reason analysis of which can clearly be debated and then consider one more point.... the new head coach, Scott WAS an accomplished 3-pt shooter as we all know so he will likely place enough emphasis in this area for this team to do quite well in this department one would think..... _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ...
Last edited by LA_Lakers_Rule on Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Telleris Star Player
Joined: 28 May 2013 Posts: 2371
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: |
Actually the talent from beyond the arc remains with this club just as the talent existed with last years team.... Again, the Lakers lost Farmar and Meeks essentially as far as 3-pt shooting is concerned yet gained Lin and Ellington (both capable of 40% beyond the arc) as well as adding the very impressive Clarkson so I don't see much of a drop-off in 3-pt shooting talent over all compared to last years club who was 3rd best in the league in 3pt shooting percentage.... Consider Ellington is already spoken of in terms of a player in the mold of Meeks and we all know how Lin can get it done beyond the arc....
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Jodie Meeks, 162/404, 40%, Farmar 70/160, 44%, Blake(Lakers) 52/131, 40%, Marshall, 71/178, 40%
If you take them off the team (which they are), you reduce the attempts from 2032 to 1159 and the makes from 774 to 419, 419/1159 = 36.1%, if Lin shot at that it would be his career best, Kobe hasn't shot better than that since he was 24, Nash if he plays will improve that a bit, Ellington who knows if he even sees non garbage time, 36.1% puts you down at 14/15, dead average as said, which is to be expected when your 4 best % shooters are all gone. _________________ I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong |
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Omar Little Moderator
Joined: 02 May 2005 Posts: 90307 Location: Formerly Known As 24
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Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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True to some degree, although Lin has been on an upward trajectory every year, and shot 36% last year, so if trends continue would shoot better. Young has turned out to be a very good corner three guy (44% last year), ellington is quality, and Kelly dramatically improved his stroke once he found his stride (but before he hit the wall late). So the cupboard isn't entirely bare. _________________ “We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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LA_Lakers_Rule Franchise Player
Joined: 23 Aug 2004 Posts: 19482 Location: The X-Files
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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Telleris wrote: | LA_Lakers_Rule wrote: |
Actually the talent from beyond the arc remains with this club just as the talent existed with last years team.... Again, the Lakers lost Farmar and Meeks essentially as far as 3-pt shooting is concerned yet gained Lin and Ellington (both capable of 40% beyond the arc) as well as adding the very impressive Clarkson so I don't see much of a drop-off in 3-pt shooting talent over all compared to last years club who was 3rd best in the league in 3pt shooting percentage.... Consider Ellington is already spoken of in terms of a player in the mold of Meeks and we all know how Lin can get it done beyond the arc....
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Jodie Meeks, 162/404, 40%, Farmar 70/160, 44%, Blake(Lakers) 52/131, 40%, Marshall, 71/178, 40%
If you take them off the team (which they are), you reduce the attempts from 2032 to 1159 and the makes from 774 to 419, 419/1159 = 36.1%, if Lin shot at that it would be his career best, Kobe hasn't shot better than that since he was 24, Nash if he plays will improve that a bit, Ellington who knows if he even sees non garbage time, 36.1% puts you down at 14/15, dead average as said, which is to be expected when your 4 best % shooters are all gone. |
Very good points, I had not considered Blake and didn't really think about Marshall that much so with those two added into the mix your points are well taken...
That said, considering the players the Lakers still do have Nick, Kelly, Kobe, Wes, Xavier (all 34-39% 3-pt shooters, assuming Kobe can shoot 34% that is which might be a bit of a stretch) and then add to that the players we did not have last year Nash with 43% career average (virtually NA all of last year due to injuries but reportedly looking good for this year), Lin (admittedly I had him to high for last year but should improve and potentially shoot above 36%), Ellington and Clarkson I'll agree there will likely be more of a drop-off than the POV I previously expressed but that said I'd still say that instead of saying: "We'll be an average 3pt shooting team at best" as stated in the post I replied to it might be more accurate to say "We'll be an average 3pt shooting team at WORST" hence I suspect the Lakers will very likely be an ABOVE average team this coming year (that is keeping in mind the 36.1% you have referenced would in fact rank in the top half) taking into consideration how much Nash at a career 43% would likely improve that number assuming he can stay healthy and if so can still shoot above 40% which would seem a reasonable conclusion in that case albeit a team 3pt average in the end would most likely still not be as good as last year as you've pointed out. _________________ Rule = win titles
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment. - Will Rogers ... |
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ringfinger Retired Number
Joined: 08 Oct 2013 Posts: 29418
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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How many players on this squad have career shooting percentages of better than .361, which we can assume will be the league average next year?
Only Steve Nash, Wayne Ellington and Nick Young. Everyone else is below that mark.
Nash and Ellington probably won't play enough or take enough 3s to substantially impact our team percentage.
It's basic math. Thus, we will most likely fall below the league average and if some guys can shoot better than maybe we'll be at the league average.
Bottom line, if everyone shoots their career average, we will be below average. |
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DJ Slik Starting Rotation
Joined: 11 Jul 2014 Posts: 432
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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depends on how many threes kobe and nash end up taking. the more 3s kobe shoots the worse they'll be percentage wise and the more 3s nash shoots the better they'll be percentage wise. of course, this has nothing to do with how good the team will be. Magic says NO. |
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LakersRGolden Star Player
Joined: 13 Jan 2002 Posts: 7927 Location: Lake Forest
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Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:13 am Post subject: |
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Lin, Nash, and Randle primarily attack off the dribble. Kobe from the low blocks. That means there will be plenty of 3pt shots and plenty of weak-side leaks to the rim for a big.
It won't be a lack of 3 pt. shots killing rhythm.
I think Kelly will be seeing a lot of floor time with Lin and Randle. Ellington might get some run too. |
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ringfinger Retired Number
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Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:24 am Post subject: |
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Just to take a deeper look, here's what I did. I pulled up the career 3pt shooting stats and the last healthy season stats (so for Kobe and Nash that was the season prior to last).
While I know this won't be the case, I'm going to assume here that everyone takes the same amount of 3pt shots that they did in their last healthy season and then calculate a team 3pt shooting percentage as a baseline for 2014-2015 season.
Last Season (I removed bigs that aren't likely to take a 3)
Kobe Bryant 32.4% (132/407)
Wayne Ellington 41.8% (25/59)
Xavier Henry 34.6% (28/81)
Wesley Johnson 36.9% (100/271)
Ryan Kelly 33.8% (48/142)
Jeremy Lin 35.8% (82/229)
Steve Nash 43.8% (57/130)
Ronnie Price 20.9% (9/43)
Nick Young 38.6% (135/350)
Total Lakers 36.0% (616/1712)
Now, some of our players enjoyed a higher-than-typical 3pt shooting season due to playing in the MDA offense, and some players shot a lower than typical from that range in their prior season. To reconcile relative to career averages, here is what I did. I multiply the career 3pt shooting average by the 3PA from previous season to get 3PM and then divide the two. So this will lift Kobe's average but reduce Wesley Johnson's, for instance.
Career Averages
Kobe Bryant 33.5%
Wayne Ellington 38.6%
Xavier Henry 32.5%
Wesley Johnson 34.6%
Ryan Kelly 33.8%
Jeremy Lin 34.3%
Steve Nash 42.8%
Ronnie Price 29.2%
Nick Young 37.7%
Projected 2014-2015 3pt shooting percentage (based on career averages): 35.4%
League averages for past 5 years
2013-2014: 36.0%
2012-2013: 35.9%
2011-2012: 34.9%
2010-2011: 35.8%
2009-2010: 35.5%
Average average of past 5 years = 35.6% (I assumed equal volume)
Based on that, we'll most likely fall right around (but just below) the league average if you expect our players to shoot with the same efficiency as they have in their careers.
So just like my guess from before, I expect we'll fall below the league average mark based on the numbers is my projection. And if some of the younger guys can improve their shooting like a Ryan Kelly for instance, then we might be right around the league average. But most likely, we will be several spots below. Namely because adding Kobe back to the mix means fewer 3pt attempts for the better 3pt shooters like Nick Young, Wesley Johnson, and Steve Nash who lift the overall team average.
FWIW, if you remove Kobe's 3pt shooting, the team rockets to 37.1%. That explains our ranking of 3rd in the previous season. We had no Kobe bringing down the 3pt average. Given that he accounts for around 20%-25% of the team's volume, what he does has a big impact on the overall team numbers. |
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Car54 Franchise Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2005 Posts: 14424
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Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:38 am Post subject: Re: Will the Lakers be a good three point shooting team? |
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greenfrog wrote: | Car54 wrote: | kray28_ wrote: | I recently read this blurb that the Lakers lost 4 of their top 5 three point shooters. That might not mean much since we're in transition from D'Antoni ball, but it got me thinking if we have enough three point shooting on the team as is.
Who we could expect to shoot threes?
1. Kobe - I don't expect him to shoot many threes. Okay three point shooter.
2. Nick - Very good three point shooter, but tends to be a subpar catch and shoot three point shooter.
3. Lin - good three point shooter, but again, it's not something that's his strength
4. Nash - probably the best three point shooter on the team, if he's healthy, and he won't be.
5. Xavier - not a good three pt shooter
6. Wes - bad shooter period
7. Clarkson - he can shoot from what we've seen early on, but will be even see the court?
So what do you think? Maybe this is a team that could benefit from shooting threes less to begin with....but does it have enough to get by? |
Wes shot 37% how is he a bad 3 pt shooter? |
Post-MDA inflation let's see what he shoots. Only in his rookie season, which was considered a bust, was he close to last year's percentage. |
That's interesting he has two decent 3pt shooting years out of his four years playing but you choose to go with he can't shoot 3s smh _________________ Coach Vogel, Kidd, Hollins
Max slot : Kawhi |
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greenfrog Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
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Posted: Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:27 am Post subject: Re: Will the Lakers be a good three point shooting team? |
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Car54 wrote: | greenfrog wrote: | Car54 wrote: | kray28_ wrote: | I recently read this blurb that the Lakers lost 4 of their top 5 three point shooters. That might not mean much since we're in transition from D'Antoni ball, but it got me thinking if we have enough three point shooting on the team as is.
Who we could expect to shoot threes?
1. Kobe - I don't expect him to shoot many threes. Okay three point shooter.
2. Nick - Very good three point shooter, but tends to be a subpar catch and shoot three point shooter.
3. Lin - good three point shooter, but again, it's not something that's his strength
4. Nash - probably the best three point shooter on the team, if he's healthy, and he won't be.
5. Xavier - not a good three pt shooter
6. Wes - bad shooter period
7. Clarkson - he can shoot from what we've seen early on, but will be even see the court?
So what do you think? Maybe this is a team that could benefit from shooting threes less to begin with....but does it have enough to get by? |
Wes shot 37% how is he a bad 3 pt shooter? |
Post-MDA inflation let's see what he shoots. Only in his rookie season, which was considered a bust, was he close to last year's percentage. |
That's interesting he has two decent 3pt shooting years out of his four years playing but you choose to go with he can't shoot 3s smh |
The point was that he's hardly established himself as a good shooter. Shake your head at that. |
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